The Impact of Korea's Exchange Rate Volatility on Korean Trade

This study uses a GARCH-in-mean model to analyse the impact of Korea's nominal exchange rate volatility on exports and export prices over the current flexible-rate period. The volatility of Korea's won increases the exchange risk of exporters and leads to changes in export volume and price. This paper provides some evidence that nominal exchange rate volatility has had a statistically significant impact on real exports over the current floating-rate period. We show that persistence-in-variance of exchange rates affects the market for exports in Korea. An important result is that the effect of exchange rate volatility on trade variables is shown to be significant. We find that the GARCH conditional variance has a statistically significant impact on the reduced form equations. The magnitude of the effect is generally stronger for export quantities than prices. This result is contradicts that of Kroner and Lastrapes's analysis. This is explained by the fact that Korean exporters choose the strategy of pricing to maintain market share instead of adjusting export prices to reflect exchange rate changes, even when this cuts profit margins.     

The Impact of Korea's Exchange Rate Volatility on Korean Trade

This study uses a GARCH-in-mean model to analyse the impact of Korea's nominal exchange rate volatility on exports and export prices over the current flexible-rate period. The volatility of Korea's won increases the exchange risk of exporters and leads to changes in export volume and price. This paper provides some evidence that nominal exchange rate volatility has had a statistically significant impact on real exports over the current floating-rate period. We show that persistence-in-variance of exchange rates affects the market for exports in Korea. An important result is that the effect of exchange rate volatility on trade variables is shown to be significant. We find that the GARCH conditional variance has a statistically significant impact on the reduced form equations. The magnitude of the effect is generally stronger for export quantities than prices. This result is contradicts that of Kroner and Lastrapes's analysis. This is explained by the fact that Korean exporters choose the strategy of pricing to maintain market share instead of adjusting export prices to reflect exchange rate changes, even when this cuts profit margins.     

韩国创新模式:大学、集群与创新体系

韩国创新体系的核心是大企业,虽然大学和政府研究机构对经济的发展都曾做出重要的贡献,但这种贡献并不是体现在研究成果的转移和创新方面。过去几十年里,韩国的大学和研究机构对集群发展的作用是非常小的,这主要由于韩国经济中一些体制上的障碍。近年来,韩国创新体系又有了新的动向,大学、研究机构以及集群的作用开始增强并受到重视。     

日韩对华直接投资的产业转移比较

日本和韩国近年来对我国的直接投资规模不断扩大,其产业转移的趋势已经影响到我国的产业结构。文章根据日本和韩国对华直接投资的变化,从产业转移的动机、产业转移的行业分布、产业转移的主体构成以及产业转移的区位分布等四个方面,对日本韩国产业转移的特点进行分析与比较,从而为我国合理利用外资,促进我国产业结构升级提供参考。     

Export-led industrialisation and growth: Korea's economic miracle, 1962–1989

During 1962–1989, South Korea underwent a remarkable economic transformation from being poverty-ridden to attaining the status of newly industrialised nation. This transformation was achieved through the adoption of an outward-oriented, industry-led strategy. It was based, particularly during the 1970s, upon the development of large-scale industrial conglomerates and the attainment of economies of scale and technology to achieve international competitiveness. By the early 1980s, this strategy had resulted in major structural imbalances, a weakened financial sector, heavy concentration in domestic markets, and a repressed development of small and medium enterprises. By the end of the 1980s, despite attempts at economic reform, the structural and financial problems remained and became the country's undoing during the crisis of 1997–1998. This article reviews the question whether Korea's performance during this period can be described as an economic miracle. The empirical evidence is mixed and inconclusive, although the achievements of the Korean economy should not be underestimated.     

工资变动对我国服务贸易与货物贸易竞争力的影响

近年来,我国物价上涨十分明显,要求增加工资的呼声不断高涨,但有人担心涨工资可能会导致我国外贸国际竞争力下降,进而会影响经济增长。在此背景下,本文实证分析工资变动对我国服务贸易、一般贸易与加工贸易竞争力的影响,以期为政府部门决策提供参考。本文的研究结论是:从长期看,工资增长有利于提升我国外贸竞争力。从短期情况看出,一方面,工资增长对我国服务贸易与一般贸易竞争力产生一定的冲击,但不久,这种冲击会转变为正面影响;另一方面,工资增长对我国加工贸易有正面影响,但其正面影响会逐渐减小,并转化为微弱的负面影响。     

中国服务贸易国际竞争力的影响因素分析与对策研究

随着服务业转移速度的不断加快和国际服务贸易自由化的持续推进,中国服务贸易取得了较快的发展,但目前仍缺乏国际竞争优势,竞争力较低。本文通过构建模型来分析影响一国服务贸易竞争力的各种因素,并利用计量模型来测定部分具体因素对中国服务贸易竞争力作用的显著程度和影响大小。最后从微观、中观和宏观三个层面提出了发展中国服务贸易,提升竞争力的对策和建议。     

我国服务贸易长期逆差原因分析及对策

改革开放以来，我国服务贸易发展迅速，但我国服务贸易在世界市场上所占的份额仍比较小，整体国际竞争力较低，而我国服务贸易各行业竞争力状况却不尽相同。本文首先介绍了我国服务贸易的现状，从国内环境方面深入研讨我国服务贸易面临的机遇和挑战，指出我国服务贸易存在的问题，最后提出了提高我国服务贸易国际竞争力的几点对策。     

韩国政府应对国际金融危机的政策及其启示

危机应对政策对于金融危机后的经济恢复具有重要作用。从2008年金融危机之后韩国政府一系列的经济恢复政策看,及时的干预时点、推陈出新的干预手段、合理的宏观政策搭配和配套的微观措施是实体经济从金融危机中恢复的关键性因素。     

Changes in Chinese Competitiveness in Major Food Products: Implications for WTO Membership

Chinese entry to the WTO in December 2001 marks a new phase in agricultural trade, both nationally and globally. After a context review of Chinese agriculture and WTO-related policy issues, this paper first uses a Balassa index approach to examine China's relative competitiveness in some major food products over the period since 1985, followed by an analysis of price-cost ratios and production cost structures for these products. It is found that China has revealed comparative advantages in meat products but disadvantages in cereals. With limited land resources, its production and trade competitiveness has declined despite rapid substitution of capital for labour, due to a marked rise in relative labour price in agriculture. In the long run, it is expected that WTO membership will boost Chinese agricultural trade, but its impact on competitiveness will probably depend more on production costs, and will differ between crops and animal products.     

Institutional mechanism for ASEAN-India cooperation: Trends and prospects

ASEAN's dynamic structural change and India's imminent economic liberalisation and deregulation are expected to further strengthen the ASEAN-India relations. A key component in this relationshiup is the institutional mechanism that can facilitate investment and trade flows, social and cultural exchanges and technical cooperation. To intensify these links, ASEAN has established a sectoral dialogue partnership with India in 1993, covering trade, investment and tourism areas. The framework for cooperation also provides for private sector representation. In view of this increasingly important relationship, ASEAN has agreed to upgrade India as a Full Dialogue Partner in 1995. Future changes and streamlining of the ASEAN institutional mechanism is expected to further facilitate and strengthen the ASEAN-India relatiionship.     

中国造纸产业国际竞争力评价与发展对策研究

首先,基于国际市场占有率、显示性比较优势指数、贸易竞争力指数定量评价中国连续8年的国际贸易竞争能力及变化趋势,得出中国造纸产业国际竞争力虽然在不断增强,但总体竞争力低,与世界造纸强国的差距大的结论;其次,分析导致中国造纸产业国际竞争力较低的原因;最后,从政府和企业两方面对如何提升中国造纸产业的国际竞争力提出建议。     

The search for determinants of catching up: Theory, the East Asian experience and the Chinese case

This paper aims to develop a framework to identify the key determinants of a country's growth in late development and apply the framework to analyze the case of China. I analyze the possible necessary and sufficient conditions for catching up. The analyses suggest that an adequate location, initial human capital and institutional arrangements are among the key determinants; for the majority of developing countries, institutional arrangements alone dictate catching up or not. If the institutional arrangements are efficient, then a follower can achieve what I term long-term potential growth rate provided that there exists an adequate location and initial human capital. The experience of Japan and the East Asian newly industrializing economies is evaluated in the framework. Based on the framework of catching up and the experience of East Asia, the Chinese case is analyzed. The analyses suggest with high probability that China will sustain high growth and get close to its long-term potential growth rate in the coming decades: 7–10% annually in the next 15 years and 5–7% annually in the following 15 years.     

Understanding openness and productivity growth in China: An empirical study of the Chinese provinces

This paper investigates the effects of openness on China's regional productivity growth. We build a model of technology diffusion in which follower economies achieve productivity growth by taking advantage of technology spillovers from the world technology frontier. We hypothesize that China's regional productivity growth is a positive function of regional openness and a negative function of the current level of regional productivity. Empirical analysis in this paper focuses on how openness affects productivity growth in the Chinese provinces. We examine two effects of openness on regional productivity growth in China: the direct growth effect and the convergence effect. By using a variety of panel data regression techniques, we show that the direct growth effect of openness is the main effect while the convergence effect is insignificant. The findings of this paper lend strong support to the claim that the opening-up of China promotes the country's economic growth.     

Competitiveness and external trade performance of the French manufacturing industry

Competitiveness and External Trade Performance of the French Manufacturing Industry. - This paper evaluates the competitiveness and external trade performance of the French manufacturing industry during the 1980s and early 1990s. It reviews developments in a broad range of competitiveness indicators, showing that the manufacturing sector appears to have maintained its competitive position, discusses developments in export market shares, and estimates a vector error correction model relating the trade ratio to relative unit labor costs, domestic and foreign demand, and nonprice competitiveness. Variance decompositions suggest that fluctuations in price and nonprice competitiveness account for about two-fifths of fluctuations in manufacturing trade flows.     

东北三省对朝鲜的经贸合作与展望

朝鲜经济连续三年小幅度增长,但仍存在着许多不确定因素,值得我们注意.抓住机遇,发展与朝鲜的经贸关系,不失为东北三省振兴老工业基地,扩大改革开放,加快经济发展的明智之举.     

基于服务贸易开放度的中国服务贸易竞争力研究

服务贸易开放度对服务贸易竞争力存在物资资本积累效应、人力资本积累效应、技术外溢效应和门槛效应等四大作用机制。根据服务贸易开放度新指标和用综合指标法衡量的服务贸易竞争力指标,运用波特的"钻石模型"选取衡量影响服务贸易竞争力的因素变量,进行基于服务贸易开放度的中国服务贸易竞争力的实证研究表明,中国服务贸易开放度对服务贸易竞争力的提升具有积极的促进作用;人力资本、人均国民收入以及货物贸易发展水平等对服务贸易的竞争力有显著的影响,要提高我国的服务贸易竞争力,必须综合考虑上面各种因素。     

Are China's energy markets cointegrated?

The paper investigates energy price co-movement over the period 01/1999–12/2005 for China as a whole, and over sub-periods and for seven regions, using panel unit root and panel cointegration tests developed by Pedroni (1999, 2004). The results suggest that not all energy sources are spatially homogenous in prices and the processes of energy price cointegration are different over sub-periods; over groups of fuels; and over regions. Coal and electricity prices have co-moved since 2003 while gasoline and diesel prices have co-moved since 1997. The results show that there are clearly variations in the emergence of energy price co-movement over regions, implying that regional fuel markets have emerged in China. Important lessons that can be learnt from the results are that an energy market has, to some extent, already emerged in China and, as a result, energy prices are substantially less distorted than before. If correct, these findings have significant global implications both in terms of future emission reductions, emission trading and trade negotiations where China should be treated as a ‘market driven economy’.     

The Japanese trade balance: Recent history and future prospects

The rise in the yen in the early 1990s was held out as a `solution' to the persistent Japanese trade surplus. I argued, instead, that the sharp rise in the yen through mid-1993 would lead at most to a modest decline in net exports. This forecast, made in late 1993, was remarkably accurate, despite a subsequent fall in the dollar to 80 yen. It reflects a resilient feature of trade data known to most empirical researchers: that relative price movements account for only a fraction of observed movements in the balance of trade or current account.     

我国运输服务贸易国际竞争力的测度与比较

本文主要运用近年来我国和世界运输服务贸易强国的各类运输服务贸易进出口数据,借助国际市场占有率（MOR）、贸易竞争力指数（TC）、显示性比较优势指数（RCA）和显示性竞争优势指数（CA）等指标,来综合测度和分析我国运输服务贸易的国际竞争力。分析结果表明,我国运输服务贸易竞争力较低,但整体上呈上升趋势,未来有待进一步提高。根据波特的“钻石模型”,来分析我国运输服务贸易竞争力不高的主要原因,提出必须在转变政府职能,推进大型企业和大型运输企业的联合,加强综合物流设施的建设,加强专业人才的教育和培养等方面采取政策措施。