Housing tenure and labor market impacts: The search goes on

We develop two search-theoretic models emphasizing firm entry to examine the Oswald hypothesis, the idea that homeownership is linked to inferior labor market outcomes, and compare their predictions to three extant theories. The five models have surprisingly different predictions about the labor market at both the aggregate and micro levels. Using a suitable instrumental variable strategy, we estimate both micro and aggregate level regression models of wages and unemployment and compare the estimates to those predictions. We find that while homeowners are less likely to be unemployed, they also have lower wages, all else equal, compared to renters. In addition, higher regional homeownership rates are associated with a greater probability of individual worker unemployment and higher wages. The outcome of a horserace between our new search-theoretic models is mixed—the wage-posting model predicts observed unemployment impacts while a bargaining variant does a better job explaining observed wages and aggregate labor market outcomes. Overall, we conclude that firm behavior is important for understanding the labor market impacts of homeownership. Because this is the case, regional homeownership rates are not good instruments for individual tenure choice in empirical work. And while individual homeowners may have inferior labor market outcomes as compared to renters, from the viewpoint of society, higher homeownership rates may result in greater job creation and overall production, among other benefits.     

住房自有率与城市蔓延：理论与实证

通过构建一个包含住房租赁市场的封闭、单中心城市一般均衡模型，模型化了住房自有率与城市蔓延之间的关系，理论模型结论显示：首先，与自有住房者相比，租房者倾向于居住在离市中心较近的地方；其次，住房自有率的提高会使城市空间面积扩大，加剧城市蔓延。进一步，利用地级市数据分别对理论命题结论进行了检验，在比较充分地控制内生性问题后，实证结果证实了高住房自有率会加剧城市蔓延。因此，长期以来我国不断升高的住房自有率也是加剧我国城市蔓延的重要原因。     

Measuring the Benefits of Homeowning: Effects on Children

In this paper we examine whether homeowning benefits children by testing whether children of homeowners stay in school longer than children of renters and whether daughters of homeowners are less likely to have children as teenagers than daughters of renters. We use both probit models and a bivariate probit technique which takes account of possible selection bias due to differences between parents who choose to own versus rent. We find in several data sets that both effects are statistically significant and quantitatively important—particularly for low-income households. We also estimate that the dollar benefit per low- income household of parents being homeowners rather than renters is at least $31,000.     

Alternative measures of homeownership gaps across segregated neighborhoods

The dramatic rise in the U.S. homeownership rate from 64% in 1996 to almost 70% in 2005 has prompted increased attention to the relation between homeownership and demographic characteristics of households. The recent rise and sharp decline of subprime lending will likely spur further interest in homeownership gaps. Statistical analysis of these differences or “gaps” in homeownership between white and minority households has evolved into a highly stylized comparison of differences in homeownership at the mean or the conditional mean. This study implements a quantile decomposition technique that identifies the unexplained portion of the gap not only at the mean, but at every percentile of the homeownership distribution. Results suggest that differences in homeownership gaps at the mean reflect a combination of small differences at the upper end and much larger gaps at the lowest end of the distribution of homeowners. This study also adds credit history to the factors that are used to explain homeownership gaps.     

Capitalization and the Voucher: An Analysis of Precinct Returns from California''s Proposition 174

In 1993, Californians voted on a school voucher initiative. We hypothesize that homeowners in good school districts understood the voucher to be a threat to their property values and thus voted against it. Precinct returns from Los Angeles County confirm this hypothesis. We also examine an alternative hypothesis explaining the relationship between school quality and precinct returns. According to the alternative, voters perceived the initiative to be a referendum on public school quality. To distinguish between the two hypotheses, we compare the voting patterns of homeowners and renters. The comparison does not favor one hypothesis over the other.     

Voter turnout in a multidimensional policy space

Many factors influence the likelihood of citizens turning out to vote. In this paper we focus our attention on issue voting, that is, on the likelihood that different policies offered by politicians affect the probability of voting. If voters consider both the benefits and the costs of voting, rational voters will only vote when politicians offer differentiated policies. In a multidimensional policy space this implies that citizens only vote when they perceive enough difference on the issues they care about the most. We investigate the role of voter abstention due to indifference in a unidimensional and a multidimensional policy setting using data from the US National Election Studies for 1972–2000 and find support for our predictions: voters perceiving a small difference between the platforms of the Democratic and Republican parties are less likely to vote; and voters who perceive the two parties as more different on a larger number of issues are significantly more likely to vote.     

A flexible framework for intervention analysis applied to credit-card usage during the coronavirus pandemic

We develop a variant of intervention analysis designed to measure a change in the law of motion for the distribution of individuals in a cross-section, rather than modeling the moments of the distribution. To calculate a counterfactual forecast, we discretize the distribution and employ a Markov model in which the transition probabilities are modeled as a multinomial logit distribution. Our approach is scalable and is designed to be applied to micro-level data. A wide panel often carries with it several imperfections that complicate the analysis when using traditional time-series methods; our framework accommodates these imperfections. The result is a framework rich enough to detect intervention effects that not only shift the mean, but also those that shift higher moments, while leaving lower moments unchanged. We apply this framework to document the changes in credit usage of consumers during the COVID-19 pandemic. We consider multinomial logit models of the dependence of credit-card balances, with categorical variables representing monthly seasonality, homeownership status, and credit scores. We find that, relative to our forecasts, consumers have greatly reduced their use of credit. This result holds for homeowners and renters as well as consumers with both high and low credit scores.     

Racial gaps in the transition to first-time homeownership: The role of residential location

Evidence suggests that African Americans wait longer to transition into first-time homeownership than white households with similar endowments. This paper relies on data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) to examine the contribution of residential location toward the black–white gap in first-time homeownership transitions. For a sample of young renters who first left their parents' home during the period 1978 through 1987, I estimate continuous time duration models that explain racial gaps in rental tenure durations prior to first-time homeownership as a function of individual, household, and location-specific covariates. I find that while several residential location characteristics, particularly those associated with the supply of affordable owner-occupied housing, impinge upon racial gaps in first-time homeownership transitions, most of the racial gap in homeownership transitions would be eliminated if blacks and whites had similar individual and household characteristics.     

Housing appreciation, mortgage interest rates, and homeowner mobility

This paper presents a model of the optimal timing of tradeup, which considers consumption and investment motives of homeownership. Households determine the optimal timing of trading up so as to maximize their intertemporal utility of both housing and nonhousing consumption. First we consider current homeowners, who already own a house and expect that they trade up to a more valuable house at some point in the future. Housing appreciation tends to induce an earlier optimal timing of trading up. Moreover, housing appreciation makes current homeowners better off in terms of welfare. However, current homeowners suffer from a rise in mortgage interest rates. Second, we consider first-time home buyers, who have decided to buy a house and expect to trade up to a more valuable house in the future. Their initial housing consumption is determined by an initial downpayment constraint. In this case, the effect of housing appreciation on the optimal timing of trading up is ambiguous and, unlike current homeowners, first-time home buyers suffer from housing appreciation. Moreover, as current homeowners, first-time home buyers suffer from a rise in mortgage interest rates. Most of the theoretical analytic results are ambiguous. Accordingly, we perform numerical simulations based on the theoretical model in order to determine the most likely comparative effects for a stylized set of parameters.As is apparent, the model captures the recent observations on homewner mobility and suggests that macroeconomic variables such as housing appreciation and mortgage interest rates effect the optimal timing of trading up and homeowner's welfare. Nevertheless, the model in this paper has several shortcomings, which should be the subject of future research. First, transaction costs are ignored. If transaction costs are incorporated, the lock-in effect from a rise in mortgage interest rates is well explained. However, the general analysis above is not altered in any essential way. Second, multiple moves are not considered in this model. Therefore, we concentrate on the timing of one tradeup as opposed to the timing and frequency of trading up. In a different vein, it would be interesting to test empirically the importance of the effects of macroeconomic variables on trading up by using microdata.     

Skill-biased technological change and homeownership

In the United States, the residential housing market went through important changes over the period from the 1970s to the mid-1990s. Although the aggregate homeownership rate was relatively stable during that period, the distribution of homeownership rates by age changed in remarkable ways. While younger households saw substantial declines in homeownership rates, the opposite happened for older households. In this paper, we argue that the skill-biased technological change (SBTC) that began during the 1970s has been an important factor behind the observed change in the distribution of homeownership rates by age. We build a life cycle model in which skills are accumulated on-the-job through experience: learning by doing. Early in life, households have lower levels of skills and therefore lower earnings. SBTC increases the returns to skill, widening the wage gap between young and old ages. As a consequence, it takes more time for young households to become homeowners given frictions in financial markets (e.g. downpayment requirements) and housing markets (e.g. large and indivisible houses), in line with consumption smoothing behavior. On the other hand, older households that could not afford a house before may now become homeowners, given higher returns to skill. Our analysis confirms this conjecture, namely, that SBTC shifts the distribution of homeownership from the young to the old.     

Party loyalty as habit formation

In most democracies, at least two out of any three individuals vote for the same party in sequential elections. This paper presents a model in which vote‐persistence is partly due to the dependence of the utility on the previous voting decision. This dependence is termed ‘habit formation’. The model and its implications are supported by individual‐level panel data on the presidential elections in the USA in 1972 and 1976. For example, it is found that the voting probability is a function of the lagged choice variable, even when the endogeneity of the lagged variable is accounted for, and that the tendency to vote for different parties in sequential elections decreased with the age of the voter. Furthermore, using structural estimation the effect of habit is estimated, while allowing unobserved differences among respondents. The structural habit parameter implies that the effect of previous votes on the current decision is quite strong. The habit model fits the data better than the traditional ‘party identification’ model. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Geographical Proximity and Mutual Funds' Proxy Voting Behavior

This paper examines the influence of geographical proximity on mutual fund proxy voting decisions. Using mutual fund proxy voting data for the sample period July 1, 2003 to June 30, 2004, we find that fund managers vote more in favor of management of locally headquartered firms. The results are strong for proposals related to executive compensation, anti‐takeover provisions, social and political issues. We provide evidence to show that bias in proxy voting is not being driven by informational advantage; voting bias is prevalent in small as well as large size companies. Additionally, the voting pattern suggests that geographical proximity does not facilitate in better corporate monitoring as revealed in their voting decisions. We find that local fund managers vote more favorably in those proposals which do not increase shareholders' wealth and rights. Our results suggest that familiarity and social interaction between fund managers and firm executives located in the same geographic area might explain the local bias in mutual fund proxy voting behavior. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Earthquake risk and housing prices in Japan: Evidence before and after massive earthquakes

The hedonic pricing approach is used to examine whether homeowners and/or renters alter their subjective assessments of earthquake risks after massive earthquakes. Using nation-wide household panel data coupled with earthquake hazard information and records of observed earthquakes, we find that there are some modifications of individuals' assessments of earthquake risk in both cases. We have carefully taken into consideration the bias stemming from the use of objective risk variables as a proxy for individual risk assessments. Our results suggest that the price discount from locating within a quake-prone area is significantly larger soon after earthquake events than beforehand. We argue that the most likely interpretation for this result is that households tend to underestimate earthquake risk if there has not been a recent occurrence.     

Biases and Strategic Behaviour in Performance Evaluation: The Case of the FIFA's best soccer player award

In this paper, we study biases in performance evaluation by analysing votes for the FIFA Ballon d'Or award for best soccer player, the most prestigious award in the sport. Our findings suggest that ‘similarity’ biases are substantial, with jury members disproportionately voting for candidates from their own country, own national team, own continent and own league team. Further, we show that the impact of such biases on the total number of votes a candidate receives is fairly limited and hence is likely to affect the outcome of this competition only on rare occasions where the difference in quality between the leading candidates is small. Finally, analysing the incidence of ‘strategic voting’, we find jury members who vote for one leading candidate are more, rather than less, likely to also give points to his main competitor, as compared with neutral jury members. We discuss the implications of our findings for the design of awards, elections and performance evaluation systems in general and for the FIFA Ballon d'Or award in particular.     

Maximin choice of voting rules for committees

In the context of a probabilistic voting model with dichotomous choice, we investigate the consequences of choosing among voting rules according to the maximin criterion. A voting rule is the minimum number of voters who vote favorably on a change from the status quo required for it to be adopted. We characterize the voting rules that satisfy the maximin criterion as a function of the distribution of voters’ probabilities to favor change from the status quo. We prove that there are at most two maximin voting rules, at least one is Pareto efficient and is often different to the simple majority rule. If a committee is formed only by “conservative voters” (i.e. voters who are more likely to prefer the status quo to change) then the maximin criterion recommends voting rules that require no more voters supporting change than the simple majority rule. If there are only “radical voters”, then this criterion recommends voting rules that require no less than half of the total number of votes.Received: June 2003, Accepted: September 2004, JEL Classification: D71Salvador Barberá, Carmen Beviá, Mirko Cardinale, Wioletta Dziuda, Joan Esteban, Mahmut Erdem, Bernard Grofman, Matthew Jackson, Kai Konrad, Raul Lopez, Jordi Massó, Hugh Mullan, Shmuel Nitzan, Ana Pires do Prado, Elisabeth Schulte, Arnold Urken and two anonymous referees provided helpful comments. Finally, I also acknowledge financial support from Capes, Brazilian Ministry of Education and Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology (Project BEC2002-02130).     

The paradox of gender voting: An exploratory analysis

Voting studies have documented that white collar workers tend to vote for conservative parties and blue collar workers for parties that advance working class interests. In the United States during the era (1980–1992) of Republican Presidents Reagan and Bush, women who worked in white collar jobs tended to vote for the Democratic party and men for the more conservative Republican party. This shift created the paradox of gender voting, which this article explains. The effect of gender on vote is small but attains statistical significance due to the suppressor effect of occupation. Two interpretations of the gender effect are tested: thematerialist holds that women's occupation and class identification affect this gap; thepost-materialist suggests that affluence is pivotal. The materialist interpretation fits the data from the survey of the national election of 1984 — the middle-most election of the three won by the Republicans— but the post-materialist interpretation may explain the vote of the very affluent.To Morris Rosenberg and Roberta Simmons, fine sociologists who clarified the suppressor effect and causes of self-esteem.     

Regional heterogeneity and U.S. presidential elections: Real-time 2020 forecasts and evaluation

This paper exploits cross-sectional variation at the level of U.S. counties to generate real-time forecasts for the 2020 U.S. presidential election. The forecasting models are trained on data covering the period 2000–2016, using high-dimensional variable selection techniques. Our county-based approach contrasts the literature that focuses on national and state level data but uses longer time periods to train their models. The paper reports forecasts of popular and electoral college vote outcomes and provides a detailed ex-post evaluation of the forecasts released in real time before the election. It is shown that all of these forecasts outperform autoregressive benchmarks. A pooled national model using One-Covariate-at-a-time-Multiple-Testing (OCMT) variable selection significantly outperformed all models in forecasting the U.S. mainland national vote share and electoral college outcomes (forecasting 236 electoral votes for the Republican party compared to 232 realized). This paper also shows that key determinants of voting outcomes at the county level include incumbency effects, unemployment, poverty, educational attainment, house price changes, and international competitiveness. The results are also supportive of myopic voting: economic fluctuations realized a few months before the election tend to be more powerful predictors of voting outcomes than their long-horizon analogs.     

公租房小区的特征及治理

公租房小区有三个特征:一是租房者和买房者的混居;二是政府在公租房小区有着相当比重的经济利益;三是居民都是社会的收入中下阶层。公租房小区要避免变成贫民窟,其关键之一是中下阶层的居民能够也愿意参与到小区的治理中来。在此基础上,公租房小区的治理应该强调以小区居民代表为主体组成小区管理委员会,居民代表由居民大会选举产生,买房者的投票权高于租房者,政府代表拥有一定比例的投票权。     

Why homeowners’ documentation went missing under the Home Affordable Mortgage Program (HAMP)?: An analysis of strategic behavior of homeowners and servicers

This study investigated why documentation of certain homeowners who participated in the trial period plan (TPP) of HAMP went missing using a model of strategic behavior of homeowners and servicers. I found that the likelihood of cancellation of the TPP for missing documentation was higher for those who were current on their mortgage payments, compared to those 30 days delinquent, prior to entering the plan—both types of homeowners entered the program because they were in danger of imminent default. This finding, which is consistent with servicers “steering” homeowners with low credit risk away from HAMP to their own (proprietary) modifications, is more likely for loans owned or guaranteed by the government-sponsored enterprises (GSE) than non-GSE loans—the GSE loans have relatively more homeowners with low credit risks. The outcome, not widespread across servicers, is possibly related to the lack of standardization across servicers in identifying borrowers in danger of imminent default. Missing documentation is also associated with severely delinquent homeowners who had less incentive or were unable to submit complete documentation. This cohort of borrowers could benefit from financial education and Treasury’s proposal that servicers provide a single point of contact for borrowers would help reduce the problem of missing documentation.     

Can People Explain Their Own Vote? Introspective Questions as Indicators of Salience in the 1995 Quebec Referendum on Sovereignty

Most scholars doubt that voters are able to explain their own vote. We argue that introspective questions whereby respondents are invited to tell, in their own words, the reasons why they vote the way they do, provide useful information on which considerations are most salient in their voting decisions. We show that open-ended questions about reasons for voting Yes or No in the 1995 Quebec referendum on sovereignty help us to sort out subgroups of voters for whom a given consideration is more salient.