How to Evaluate and Enhance the Effectiveness of Capital Control in China?

China's accession to the World Trade Organizationwill make it more difficult for the country to re-strict the flow of international capital.However,it doesnot necessarily mean China will lose its effectivenessin maintaining capital control.In this paper,we pro-pose a framework to evaluate the effectiveness ofChina's efforts in that endeavor.     

How will growth in China and India affect the world economy?

China and India are rapidly growing, labor-abundant economies with very different export mixes. China is more integrated into global production sharing for manufactures, while services exports are more important for India. Even assuming India integrates more comprehensively into global production chains, there will be opportunities for rapid growth in both countries. Improvement in the range and quality of their exports can create substantial welfare benefits for the world, and for China and India, and can offset the terms-of-trade losses otherwise associated with rapid export growth. Most countries will need to respond to increased competition in some sectors, and to greater opportunities in others.     

How to explain the inverted U-shaped curve of tax centralization in China?

This paper uses popular approaches to measure fluctuations in tax centralization and the decomposition of changes in tax centralization to explain the inverted U-shaped curve of tax centralization in China. The results show that 1) during the 2002–2007 period, the within-sector effect played a dominant role in the increase in tax centralization and 2) during the 2008–2016 period, the between-sector effect was the main reason for the continued decline in tax centralization. To avoid this continued decline in tax centralization, we argue that the central government should ensure that the within-sector tax centralization of other services is not lower than that of the industry sector.     

What are the Determinants of Large‐scale Farming in China?

The Chinese Government has increased its focus on expanding farm scale to promote agricultural development since 2010. A series of favorable polices has been adopted to support large‐scale farming. Using a multivariate probit model and 2015 and 2016 rural household survey data, the present paper examines the factors that influence small farmers' decision to become large‐scale farmers. The empirical regression results suggest that the decision to become a large‐scale farmer is significantly influenced by household human capital, cooperative membership, marketing channels, land‐transfer contracts and government policies. However, the influence of these factors differs with respect to becoming large‐scale grain and non‐grain farmers. These results imply that policy tools should target these factors and the appropriate group of small‐scale farmers. Generally, both central and local governments should promote large‐scale farming by enhancing rural households' human capital, improving marketing channels and providing agricultural social services, as well as encouraging returning migrant workers to engage in large‐scale farming.     

How do trust and property security influence household contributions to public goods?: The case of the sloping land conversion program in China

Trust and property rights are generally considered to influence farmers' behavior regarding resource use and environmental management. Previous studies show that higher trust levels may enhance contributions to public goods. This paper investigates how trust and (land) property rights security influence the provision of one concrete public good: land protection through the Sloping Land Conservation Program in China. The analysis is based on household survey data from Ningxia Autonomous Region in China. From our questionnaire two trust factors are derived and distinguished, using factor analysis: general trust and kinship trust. Farm households are less likely to contribute to public goods when they perceive more secure land rights, but trust has mixed effects on public goods. The results show that general trust and kinship trust may rely on two opposite effects for influencing public goods provision. On the one hand, high levels of general trust may directly enhance people's willingness to provide contributions to public goods (by reduced likelihood to reconvert forest land) when farmers are aware of the positive environmental effects of the program, that's the public goods effect. On the other hand, general trust may also make it more likely that people invest more in their own private goods to pursue their own welfare (a more likely reconversion of forest land to arable land), that's the private goods effect. The final outcome depends on the size and direction of both effects. Compared to general trust, kinship trust is more inward-looking and self- or group-interested compared to more reciprocal general trust. Thus, unlike general trust, kinship trust may have no significant public goods effect on the provisioning of public goods.     

How Do Firms in the Private Sector Perceive Constraints to Doing Business in China?

This paper studies perceptions of business constraints in China using rich firm-level data from the 2005 and 2012 World Bank Enterprise Surveys conducted jointly by the China National Bureau of Statics and the World Bank. In addition, we focus on the variations of perceptions across foreign and indigenous Chinese firms. Our results show that there exist significant differences in perceptions between foreign and domestic firms in China in the 2005 survey, but such differences are no long present in the 2012 survey. Our analysis also identifies several elements perceived as more severe constraints by both domestic and foreign firms.     

How is Fintech reshaping the traditional financial markets? New evidence from InsurTech and insurance sectors in China

We examine the effect of Fintech on the market structure of traditional financial markets, and focus particularly on InsurTech and the insurance sector. We find that InsurTech has significantly reduced the non-life insurance sector's market concentration but plays a limited role in the life insurance sector's market structure. The results are not driven by potential reverse causality and remain unchanged when we employ an instrumental variables approach and use an alternative supply-side InsurTech index. We further explore the underlying mechanisms and find that, instead of competing directly with insurance companies, Fintech companies provide insurance technologies to traditional insurers and help them lower entry barriers and reduce operating costs. Our paper sheds light on how InsurTech is reshaping traditional insurance sectors, and the results are generalizable to Fintech and financial markets.     

How Sensitive is the Demand for Primary Education to Changes in Economic Factors?

During the recession in the 1970s and 1980s in less-developedcountries in general and in Zambia in specific, private costsof schooling increased and school quality deteriorated. Combinedwith poverty, these changes may have damaged the demand forprimary education. This observation motivated a study of therelationship between economic variables and the demand for primaryeducation. A binary choice model for the school enrolment decisionis estimated, and the relevance of economic incentives concerningthe decision to enrol in school is tested directly. Economicincentives to enrol in school are reflected in household income,educational expenses and quality indicators, and the resultsshow that they all affect school enrolment as expected, eventhough the magnitudes of the effects are relatively moderate.     

Establishing science parks everywhere? Misallocation in R&D and its determinants of science parks in China

The establishment of science parks is a vital strategy to develop high-tech industries and facilitate innovations in China. The success of a science park depends heavily on its supportive environment, suggesting that it is hard to replicate everywhere, while China has established many science parks across regions in the past decade. This study evaluates the degree of misallocation in research and development (R&D) and its determinants across science parks in China. Based on an unbalanced panel data of 145 science parks for the period 2007–2014, we find that the overall R&D efficiency has decreased sharply since 2011 when China began to initiate many new science parks. The newly constructed science parks exhibit a lower R&D efficiency than their incumbent parks, suggesting a considerable misallocation in R&D resource caused by expanding science parks everywhere. We further investigate the determinants of R&D misallocation and find that park characteristics and environmental characteristics matter. Parks which are larger, older, and having a higher human quality experience a lower R&D misallocation. Parks with closer R&D collaboration with universities or research institutes, particularly with universities, exhibit a lower R&D misallocation.     

How much slack was there in the Chinese economy prior to its economic reform of 1978?

The existence of economic slack or inefficiency is a common phenomenon of economies that operate under mandatory central planning. It implies that the economy operates in the interior of its set of production possibilities and not on its frontier. It also implies that output can be increased without any increase in the inputs if the constraints which prevent the economy from operating on the frontier in the first place are removed. Thus, there is “surplus potential output” that is not directly observable and cannot be identified by conventional analysis of the relationship between inputs and output alone. The objective of this study is to attempt to identify and estimate the surplus potential output in the Chinese economy prior to its economic reform in 1978. This will help answer the question of how much of the Chinese economic growth since 1978 can be attributed to the reduction and elimination of the pre-existing economic slack. This question is important because the increase in output due to the reduction or elimination of the economic slack can only take effect once and cannot be continuing. It will also affect the attribution of the sources of Chinese economic growth. Our investigation suggests that a reasonable estimate of the magnitude of the surplus potential output of the Chinese economy on the eve of its reform is approximately 50% of the actual realized output in 1978.     

Fiscal policy in central and Eastern Europe: what happened in the run-up to EU accession?

This paper analyses the evolution of fiscal policy in central and eastern European countries during the EU accession process, testing for country and time specific effects. This is done by constructing Taylor-type policy rules and by calculating three measures of fiscal stance. A key finding is that the differences across countries are more significant than those across time. Baltic countries tended to have had tighter fiscal policy which responded to the output gap, larger central European countries had more lax (and increasingly lax) fiscal policies which were unresponsive to the output gap. These differences correlate closely with cross-country differences in exchange rate regimes and no link is found to either spending composition or political variables. Taken together the results suggest that the exchange rate regime is by far the most significant determinant of fiscal performance. These results suggest that the “soft power” of the prospect of EU entry did not act as a spur to greater fiscal discipline and that higher budget deficits in recent years cannot be blamed on costs of accession.

How to identify poor immigrants? - An empirical study of the Three Gorges Reservoir in China

This paper aims to study on the precise identification and targeting of immigrant poverty in the TGRR, with a multi-dimensional poverty line as a standard, which has transcended the traditional income poverty line. Then, we figured out the changing trend and the causes of immigrant poverty under the perspective of multidimensional poverty. Based on the dual cutoff method and regression analysis, the study results show that the discrepancy of poverty before and after immigration is significant, but the poverty problem of immigrants in the TGRR is still serious. The current multi-poverty incidence of immigrants is 30.15%, which means that there are still 2.3097 million people under poverty. The major causes of poverty in this region are poverty in assets, poverty in education and poverty in health. The poverty contribution rate of land scarcity has increased from 12.16% to 29.52% with the deterioration of land loss, which has a negative effect on immigrants' livelihood. The results reveal several outstanding poverty problems in this region: the coverage of social security of immigrants is far from ideal; There are still 12.75% of the impoverished immigrants without medical insurance and 11.36% without pension insurance; the percentage of female laborers, the education level of laborers, the percentage of agricultural expenditure and the percentage of medical expenditure have significant correlations with immigrants' poverty in this region. The paper argues that the precise identification and targeting of poverty reduction in China should be undertaken from a multidimensional perspective.     

When is enough,enough? Advocacy,evidence and criticism in the field of urban agriculture in South Africa

In South Africa, the advocacy of urban agriculture as a means of improving the plight of the urban poor has been a major theme in the literature since the early 1990s. Ironically, the criticism of that advocacy has almost as long a history. To elucidate these two themes, this paper investigates the evidence on which the advocacy is based, outlines the criticism of the advocacy, and analyses the responses to the criticism. It suggests that continued advocacy in the face of disconfirming evidence is misplaced and calls for greater caution. It observes that responses to the criticism have been weak and concludes that continued advocacy and continued criticism, in parallel, hamper debate. Unless there is engagement between the advocates and the critics, not only will the field of urban agriculture suffer, but so will the urban poor.     

Who are the heads of household,what do they do,and is the concept of headship useful? An analysis of headship in South Africa

In most household surveys, headship is not defined by objective criteria but is self-identified by respondents. The first part of this article examines whether self-reported heads in South Africa are those household members in whom more control over decision-making is vested. Although the head is typically found to be the oldest household member, there is also a strong relationship between headship and the highest income-earner in the household. Furthermore, heads have final say over decisions even when they do not earn the most income. This is the case particularly in households headed by women. The second part of the article evaluates whether the gender of the head provides a useful marker for distinguishing between household types and their access to resources. Female- and male-headed households are not homogeneous groupings, and male-headed households are not equally advantaged. However, female-headed households in South Africa on average contain fewer income-earners, whose income is also lower, than male-headed households. Overall, therefore, households headed by women are considerably more likely to be economically vulnerable.     

Dutch Disease in the post-soviet countries of Central and South-West Asia: How contagious is it?

This study seeks to determine the extent to which the former communist states of Central and South-West Asia are “infected” by the Dutch Disease. We take a detailed look at the functioning of the transmission mechanism of the Dutch Disease, i.e. the chains that run from commodity prices to real output in manufacturing. We complement this with two econometric exercises. First, we estimate nominal and real exchange rate models to see whether commodity prices are correlated with the exchange rate. Second, we run growth equations to analyse the possible effects of commodity prices and the dependency of economic growth on natural resources.     

Does Ethnicity Matter for Access to Childhoodand Adolescent Health Capital in China? Evidence from the Wage-Height Relationship in the 2006 China Health and Nutrition Survey

This paper considers whether ethnicity conditions the return and access to health capital in China. Given that the wage-height relationship reflects the labor market earnings returns to childhood and adolescent health capital, differences in the labor market returns to height by ethnicity reflect ethnic differences in access to health capital during childhood and adolescence. We theoretically motivate the role of height in earnings by providing a Bioeconomic rationale for stature and height determining individual wages, and estimate height-augmented Mincerian earnings functions with data from the 2006 China Health and Nutrition Survey. Our results show that when the effects of unobserved genetic influences on adult height are accounted for, the labor market return on height is higher for Chinese ethnics. This suggests that in China there are ethnic disparities in access to the inputs that produce childhood and adolescent health capital.     

China and India in World Trade: Are the Asia Giants a Threat to Malaysia?1

Abstract

With higher shares in world merchandise trade and improvements in product quality, China is better positioned than India in the near term for influencing global trade. From the Malaysian perspective, China represents a non-negligible share in Malaysia's trade. The trends in bilateral trade with both Giants however suggest that competition has intensified. Relative to India, China appears to promulgate a more influential role on Malaysia via higher commodity overlap in external markets, greater matched trade that is of vertical differentiation, distinct quality shifts and negative adjustment pressures. Within this broad rubric of trade-induced changes, there is no evidence of skill upgrading for Malaysia in trade expansion with both Giants. This mirrors the lack of product quality improvements and the low levels of export values of high quality varieties in matched trade. Hence trade induced changes from the Giants that have been cited to be favourable from the Malaysian perspective in previous studies, may have been grossly overstated.     

Informal potato seed systems in the Andes: Why are they important and what should we do with them?

In Bolivia, Peru and Ecuador informal potato seed systems are much more important than formal systems. National seed projects recognize complementarities between the two systems and are seeking to link them. Arguments used to underpin linkages are assessed in the light of available evidence and accepted with some reservations. Project strategies have ranged from seed injection with minimum intervention to extensive reform ofthe informal system. All of the projects have met with some success. A number of general lessons are drawn for trapping the potential of informal seed systems.