Testing contagion of the 1997–98 crisis in Asian stock markets with structural breaks and incubation periods

This study tests for the existence of financial contagion, using a method that allows an incubation period before contagion takes effect. We define contagion as an increase in cross-market linkages following shocks. With daily data on Asian stock markets during the 1997–98 crisis, we find significant upward shifts in the linkages between the Asian markets of both crisis and non-crisis countries. The upward shifts are maintained even after controlling for heteroskedasticity and common world and regional factors, providing strong evidence for financial contagion.     

Bank market power, economic growth and financial stability: Evidence from Asian banks

This paper examines whether Asian banks are still prone to moral hazard in the aftermath of the 1997 Asian crisis. Using a sample of commercial banks from 12 Asian countries during the 2001–2007 period, our empirical findings highlight that greater market power in the banking market results in higher instability. Although banks are better capitalized in less competitive markets their default risk remains higher. A deeper investigation however shows that such behaviour is dependent on the economic environment. Higher economic growth contributes to neutralize greater risk taking and higher instability in less competitive markets.     

Applying an alternative test of herding behavior: A case study of the Indian stock market

The paper presents an alternative approach to test herding behavior in the Indian equity market. In contrast to the conventional test methodologies, based on return dispersions among a group of securities, this paper uses symmetric properties of the cross-sectional return distribution to identify herding. Using this alternative approach, we find evidence of herding in the Indian equity market during the sample period which tends to be more pronounced during the 2007 crash. The paper also finds that the rate of increase in security return dispersion is relatively lower in the up market compared to down market days. This finding is contrary to the directional asymmetry documented by McQueen et al. (1996).     

Occupational Mobility Pattern in Chonju,Korea

This paper investigates the existence of the inter‐dependence between the Indian stock market and Asia's emerging markets since 1990. This study analyzes whether the MSCI Asian Index has significantly influenced the Bombay Stock Exchange Index before, during, and after the Asian financial crisis. To address this issue, the author first uses a rolling correlation, and conduct uni‐directional and bi‐directional causality tests using the Granger causality test. He then examines the impulse response functions and variance decompositions of forecast errors based on a VAR (vector auto‐regression) model. These tests provide evidence that the influence of the Asian market on the Indian market has increased during and after the Asian financial crisis. These results can be interpreted as evidence that the Indian market has been moving toward integration with other Asian markets.     

收益波动与随机冲击的非对称性影响：中国与美国股票市场的对比

通过讨论股票收益与随机;中击之间的关系,对中国股票市场和美国股票市场进行了对比研究。研究中使用了中国上海和深圳股票市场1990年12月31日至2005年12月30日的两市A股算术平均周指,以及美国股票市场1973年1月2日至2004年月12月30日的标准普尔500周指。在进行经验研究的过程中,分别使用了线性GARCH模型和GJR—GARCH模型计量股票收益的条件波动——即模型中的条件方差。研究发现,中国股票市场自1990年——1995年波动剧烈,之后波动趋于平缓,而美国股票市场在研究期间内收益波动一直处于一定范围内。同时还发现,美国股票市场的随机冲击对股票收益产生非对称性影响,即负冲击使股票收益产生的波动大于正冲击。而在中国股票市场却找不到相似的证据。鉴于对中国股票市场收益波动的研究结果,在剔除1996年以前的数据之后又进行了扩展研究,但是似然比率检验结果表明,正冲击对股票收益的影响还要略强于负冲击。     

Who Plays the Key Role among Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong Stock Markets？

In this paper we examine the daily frequency stock market indices of Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong from January 2000 to June 2012, and use the Morlet wavelet coherence model to determine who is playing the most important role in the financial markets of China. We find that there are significant comovements between these stock markets in the medium and long run. This provides investors with opportunities to increase their capital gains. The Hong Kong stock market plays a leading role in the long run, but its leader position is threatened by fast‐growing Chinese mainland stock markets, especially the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Based on our analysis, the following suggestions apply to the Chinese stock markets: establish and improve international and regional finance centers in Chinese mainland; encourage more qualified institutional investors; reposition the market relations among Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen; and increase deregulation and internationalization to speed up the integration of financial resources.     

Contagion in the stock markets: The Asian financial crisis revisited

This paper presents empirical evidence of herding contagion in the stock markets during the 1997 Asian financial crisis, above and beyond macroeconomic fundamental driven co-movements. We analyze the cross-country time-varying correlation coefficients among the stock prices for the countries of Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Korea, and the Philippines, between crisis and tranquil periods. Macromodels are constructed and implemented to capture the pure contagion effects on the markets. After controlling for the economic fundamentals for the five countries, the paper finds strong evidence of herding contagion.     

亚太地区股票市场的联动程度——基于次级贷冲击的研究

本文从长期关系、短期作用和方差分解方面,分析了次级贷危机前后亚太股市的联动程度。首先,协整检验表明,亚太股市存在长期均衡关系,但这种关系在次级贷危机前后发生了明显的结构转变。其次,Granger非因果检验表明,亚太股市在次级贷危机后,市场间短期作用大大加强。再次,我们定义了单个市场联动程度判断准则,并且结合方差分解发现,亚太地区股市在次级贷危机后单个市场独立性显著降低。总体而言,亚太地区股市在次级贷危机之后联动程度进一步加强,支持弱分割市场理论;美国股市是地区股市领导者;日本股市变化最大,次级贷危机后,市场独立性变得最弱;中国大陆股市也不断融入区域市场。建议政府和投资者对于本国(本地区)之外的实体经济和股市风险都要密切关注。     

The effect of index futures trading on volatility: Three markets for Chinese stocks

This paper examines whether the introduction of Chinese stock index futures had an impact on the volatility of the underlying spot market. To this end, we estimate several Generalized Auto-regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models and compare our findings for mainland China with Chinese index futures traded in Singapore and Hong Kong. Our results indicate that Chinese index futures decrease spot market volatility in all three spot markets considered. In contrast, we do not obtain the same results for the companion index futures markets in Hong Kong and Singapore. China's stock market is relatively young and largely dominated by private retail investors. Nevertheless, our evidence is favorable to the stabilization hypothesis usually confirmed in mature markets.     

我国A股市场中的波动性之谜与市场情绪

本文使用Campbell和Shiller(1988)基于对数线性RVF的VAR非线性Wald检验方法对我国A股1994-2009期间的数据进行实证研究,结果表明样本期间我国A股股价相对其基础价值表现出"过度波动"的迹象,无论是常数超额收益率模型还是V-CAPM模型都无法对此进行解释。通过进一步定义市场情绪指数来分析这种"波动性之谜"现象的原因,结果发现市场情绪和股市"过度波动"之间存在相互作用机制,市场情绪能够对股价波动提供额外的解释。     

The Korean stock market volatility during the currency crisis and the credit crisis

This paper studies the volatility of the Korean stock market during the Asian currency crisis of 1997–1998 and the global credit crisis of 2008–2009. We use a fad model with Markov switching heteroskedasticity, which was first proposed by Kim and Kim (1996). Using the monthly data from January 1980 to October 2009, we find that the volatility of the transitory component of the stock return, or fads, increased during the currency crisis, but did not rise much during the credit crisis. It implies that the stock price fluctuations were not driven by irrational sentiments during the recent global crisis as much as during the former crisis. However, when we consider the dollar value of the Korean stock index in order to estimate the volatility that foreign investors confront, we find that the volatility of the transitory component was raised during the credit crisis as well as during the currency crisis. That is, foreign investors experienced greater volatility than domestic investors in the recent financial market turmoil. This asymmetric volatility that domestic and foreign investors face is one of the characteristics of the credit crisis.For more detailed analysis, the same model was applied to the weekly data from January 2005 to October 2009 and provided the result that the data measured by won–dollar exchange rates were more increased than the raw data. It holds that foreign investors confronted much greater volatility than domestic investors while the stock volatility was relatively lower in the credit crisis state than in the currency crisis state.     

Lessons from the global financial crisis – the case of Mainland China and Hong Kong

Abstract

The analysis of the intertwined reactions of Hong Kong and Mainland China to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis is considered in this study through the lenses of their stock markets. The GARCH-based analysis of stock market performance over the period December 2011–December 2014 shows that trade and equity sectors were the sectors most affected by the global recession; volatility was prevalent on the Shanghai stock market, whereas volatility persistence characterised the Hong Kong stock market. The results also show that the two stock markets recovered quite quickly. Tight controls applied by the financial authorities helped ensure some stability during the crisis.     

Motivations for Loan Herding by Chinese Banks and Its Impact on Bank Performance

This study uses a dynamic herding model that considers intertemporal and cross‐sectional correlation to confirm that loan herding occurs among joint‐stock commercial banks (JSCBs) and city commercial banks (CCBs). We clarify the motivations for bank loan herding. We find that loan herding by both JSCBs and CCBs results more from following the behavior of other same‐type banks than different‐type banks because of characteristic herding or reputational concerns. Loan herding by JSCBs is motivated by investigative herding, whereas loan herding by CCBs results from informational cascades. Moreover, loan herding has a significantly harmful impact on the operating performance of CCBs but not JSCBs, which may be explained by the irrational behavior of CCBs. Our results will help Chinese bank supervisors develop appropriate policies for handling loan herding.     

Asset Price Bubbles: Existence,Persistence and Migration

Econometric tests are performed for the detection and migration of asset‐price bubbles in the housing, currency and stock markets of seven countries. This set of countries includes both developed and emerging economies that have good historical data on housing prices. Our empirical results suggest that this type of exuberant behaviour in prices occurs more frequently in the housing market than in the currency and stock markets. Additionally, we find significant evidence of bubble migration across markets within some of the studied countries.     

Interaction between Foreign and Domestic Investors in the Korean Stock and Futures Markets*

The present paper analyzes the behavioral relations of major investor groups in the stabilized Korean stock and futures markets after the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Investor groups cannot be classified as positive or negative feedback traders on market returns when both stock and futures markets are considered, which is inconsistent with the results in Ghysels and Seon (2005). Foreign investors and domestic institutions tend to take opposite positions in both markets. The impact of foreign investors on the basis change is significantly negative in the futures market, whereas domestic institutions have a negative relation in the stock market. This supports the view that selling activity of foreign investors in the futures market pulls the futures price down compared with the index value and, consequently, induces the reverse cash‐and‐carry trade of domestic institutions. This relationship, which negatively influenced the Korean economy during the crisis, as shown in Ghysels and Seon (2005), still exists in the Korean financial markets.     

后金融危机时期中国股市的国际地位——基于非线性视角的股市联动网络分析

后金融危机时期全球股市一体化程度不断提高,全面认识中国股市的国际地位对于揭示国际股市一体化联动中的传导机制,防范和应对国际金融风险冲击具有重要的理论意义和现实价值。文章应用非线性格兰杰因果检验方法和社会网络分析方法,对金砖国家和七国集团股市收益率和波动率的联动关系及其联动网络结构进行分析,揭示出中国在国际股市联动中的地位对传导关系的控制方式,定量分析出事件冲击下中国股市与国际股市之间的交互影响。研究发现：（1）国际股市收益率和波动率联动网络呈现出稳定的非线性联动关系网络结构,受其影响各国股市收益之间存在互惠性,而波动之间则存在传染性;（2）在收益率联动网络中,中国股市的作用和地位已与英国相当,远高于其他金砖国家,正逐渐由"从属地位"转向"中心地位";（3）在波动率联动网络中,中国股市是造成国际股市风险交叉影响的重要"桥梁"。综上而言,当前中国股市表现出"高风险低收益"的市场特征;（4）中国对国际股市的影响具有典型的"地缘特征",将网络中心国家股市的利好传递给地缘临近国家股市;（5）波动率联动网络中初始冲击强度较大的国家,往往是对中国股市持续大规模产生冲击的国家;（6）相比较国际股市调整波动冲击的时间而言,中国股市调整时间较短,这表明后金融危机时代中国致力于股市的一系列改革举措取得了显著成效。     

零杠杆上市公司的股票长期收益趋势研究

与国际发达的资本市场类似,我国资本市场也存在企业零（低）杠杆现象。基于1992-2014年沪深两市全部A股上市公司的财务报表数据及股票收益数据,文章使用事件研究法与日历时间组合法,实证检验了零（低）杠杆公司的财务特征及股票长期收益情况。研究表明,我国A股市场中的零（低）杠杆现象呈现扩大化及增长趋势,且零（低）杠杆公司具有规模小、上市年限短、市账比高、投资水平低及盈利性好等共同特征。研究也发现相较非零（低）杠杆公司,连续三（五）年零（低）杠杆公司具有显著的长期超额收益,说明持续的极端财务保守政策对于股票收益具有重要的影响作用。     

Institutional Investors' Trading in Speculation: Evidence from China

The trading behaviour of institutional investors has attracted much attention. However, many issues related to their trading behaviour cannot be addressed without high‐frequency changes in institutional ownership. Based on a measure of the trading behaviour of institutional investors by using an institutional account dataset from China, we find that (i) active institutions trade speculatively by taking advantage of individual investors; (ii) individuals buying high and selling low offer liquidity only on average; (iii) foreign investors do not show significant patterns in speculation; and (iv) trading of active institutions significantly affects price. This study casts doubt on the conventional wisdom that institutional or sophisticated investors improve market efficiency by correcting mispricing, and provides direct evidence for institutional investors' speculation behaviour and their destabilising effect on the stock market. Results suggest that regulators in emerging markets should monitor institutions' speculation to bring fairness and justice to the stock market.     

Understanding the Growth of African Financial Markets*

Abstract: This paper examines empirically the determinants of financial market development in Africa with an emphasis on banking systems and stock markets. The results show that income level, creditor rights protection, financial repression, and political risk are the main determinants of banking sector development in Africa, and that stock market liquidity, domestic savings, banking sector development, and political risk are the main determinants of stock market development. We also find that liberalizing the capital account promotes financial market development only in countries with high incomes, well‐developed institutions, or both. The powerful impacts of political risk on both banking sector and stock market development suggest that resolution of political risk may be important to the development of African financial markets.     

Estimating time-varying currency betas with contagion: New evidence from developed and emerging financial markets

This paper examines the conditional time-varying currency betas from five developed and six emerging financial markets with contagion and spillover effects. We employ a trivariate asymmetric BEKK-type GARCH-in-Mean (MGARCH-M) approach to estimate the time-varying conditional variance and covariance of returns of stock market index, the world market portfolio and bilateral exchange rate between the US dollar and the local currency. The results show that the world market and currency risks are not only priced in the stock markets, but also time-varying. It is found that currency betas are much more volatile than the world market betas, and currency betas in the emerging markets are more volatile than those in the developed markets. We find empirical evidence of contagion effect and spillovers between stock market and foreign exchange market during the recent global financial crisis, and the effect is stronger in the emerging markets than that in the developed markets. Two applications are provided to illustrate the usefulness of time-varying currency betas.