市场环境、股权控制与股价同步性

我国股票市场存在较强的股价"同涨同跌"现象,这不仅影响了我国资本市场的资源配置功能,还在微观上影响了企业在市场上的融资行为。基于此,文章从股价同步性的度量出发,研究了市场环境、股权控制特征对股价同步性的影响,揭示了公司治理对市场资源配置的微妙关系,为进一步完善市场机制、提高上市公司内部和外部治理水平提供了有效的依据。     

欧债危机冲击我国股票与债券市场的风险传染研究？

欧债危机对金融市场产生了显著的冲击,引发了巨大的风险。本文通过构建二元GARCH-BEKK模型,实证检验了欧债危机背景下欧洲股票市场、我国股票市场、国债市场与企业债市场之间的波动溢出效应,揭示了欧债危机冲击我国股票市场、国债市场与企业债市场的风险传染路径。实证表明,欧债危机冲击我国股票市场与债券市场的风险传导路径为：欧债危机引发的风险通过欧洲股票市场传导到我国股票市场,然后传导到企业债市场,最后传导到国债市场。     

我国股票市场的混沌现象与市场有效性

近几年来,运用混沌理论对股票市场进行非线性分析逐渐成为金融市场分析的热点。国内外一些学者都论证了股票市场的运行存在着混沌现象,有的学者还以此为依据,否定传统市场效率分析的合理性。本文从不同侧面考察反映股市运行的信息性质,揭示其行为特征。     

我国股票市场创新问题初探

本文从政府监管者角色、投资者素质以及投资市场内在制衡机制三个方面对目前我国股票市场存在的问题进行了分析,并在此基础上提出了对我国股票市场进行创新和完善的建议。     

论提高我国股票市场的货币政策传导效率

随着资本市场的发展和金融创新的深化，股票市场对货币政策的影响越来越大，并逐渐成为货币政策传导的重要渠道。由于市场规模有限、金融一体化程度较低等因素的制约，我国股票市场的货币政策传导效率低下。因此，应借鉴西方发达国家已有的理论和成功经验，通过扩大股票市场规模、调整和优化市场结构、疏通货币市场和资本市场的联系渠道等途径，构筑股票市场传导货币政策的基础条件。同时，中央银行货币政策的最终目标应关注资产价格的变化。     

中国金融市场间极端风险溢出的监测预警研究——基于MVMQ-CAViaR方法的实现

为有效监测与预警中国金融市场间极端风险溢出的方向与程度,本文基于MVMQ-CAViaR方法,结合中国2013—2017年银行间市场、债券市场与股票市场相关数据,分析各金融市场间的极端风险传递过程。实证结果显示,股票市场与债券市场对银行间市场产生显著的单向极端风险溢出效应,而银行间市场对另外两个市场无极端风险传递效果,这表明股票市场与债券市场的极端风险向银行间市场的传递过程具有不可逆性。从风险传递的强度来看,债券市场对股票市场和银行间市场的极端风险溢出效应更加显著。因此,决策部门应重点关注债券市场的极端风险水平变化,缓释债券市场与股票市场对银行间市场的极端风险冲击,以有效防范和化解不同金融市场间极端风险的传染与暴露。     

环境管制、环境会计信息披露质量与市场反应——来自大气污染行业的经验证据北大核心

以2008~2015年我国沪深两市三个大气污染行业A股上市公司为研究样本,分析了企业环境会计信息披露质量与市场反应之间的关系,并在此基础上检验环境管制强度对环境会计信息披露质量与股票市场收益率的调节效应,结果发现:企业的环境会计信息披露质量与股票市场收益率正相关,而环境管制强度会促进环境会计信息披露质量与股票市场收益率之间的这种正向关系。     

国际能源市场与股票市场的波动溢出效应及驱动因素研究——基于TVP-VAR-DY溢出指数分解的实证研究

随着能源金融化程度不断加深,国际能源市场和股票市场之间的联系日益密切。采用TVP-VAR-DY溢出指数分解方法探究国际能源市场和股票市场之间的时变溢出关系,在此基础上进一步探究跨市场溢出效应的主要驱动因素。研究结果表明：国际能源市场与股票市场既存在显著的市场内部溢出效应,也存在显著的跨市场溢出效应,且系统总体溢出水平的动态变化主要由后者驱动;国际能源市场对股票市场的溢出效应弱于股票市场对能源市场的溢出,即国际能源市场为溢出净接收者。国际金融危机、COVID-19等极端风险事件发生时,跨市场波动溢出效应显著增强;地缘政治风险和全球经济政策不确定性是导致跨市场波动溢出的重要因素,且分别在金融市场动荡时期、全球流动性收紧时期表现得更加明显。鉴于此,投资者应高度重视两个市场之间的波动溢出风险,当极端经济事件发生时,监管部门应采取必要的非常规政策措施,减轻溢出效应的不利影响,防范化解系统性金融风险。     

我国股票市场制度性缺陷的博弈分析

我国股票市场在其发展初期，由于受初始条件的制约，股票市场的制度设置与制度安排不健全，旧体制因素作用于新兴市场，造成股票市场价格形成机制扭曲，股票市场呈现弱有效性，从而严重影响了股票市场资源配置功能的发挥。这一制度性缺陷，产生于计划经济下的金融体制向市场经济金融体制的过渡过程，是股票市场发展内在性规律与政府强制性制度变迁之间的内生性缺陷。它作用于市场机制，以外部生成强加于内在市场运行，致使资本市场行为扭曲，信息渠道受阻，无法实现信息的有效反映与传递，减弱了证券市场资源的内在配置能力。     

我国资本市场资源配置效率分析

在我国具有典型意义的资本市场主要由四部分构成:国债市场、股票市场、企业中长期债券市场及中长期放贷市场。在这其中,股票市场的发展程度最高、参与人数最多、资本规模最大。本文通过对股票市场资源配置效率的研究来替代对资本市场资源配置效率的研究,研究发现,我国的股票市场对资源的配置效率还比较低,无论是对增量资源的配置效率还是对存量资源的配置效率都还存在着很大的提升空间。     

Information dissemination in an experimentally based agent-based stock market

This paper builds an agent-based model to reproduce the results of an experimental stock market that studies how the market aggregates private information. The aim is to use experiments and agent-based modeling to analyze the trading behavior in experimental stock markets. Using the experimental environment and results, it is possible to formulate a hypothesis about the subjects’ behavior and thereby formalize (algorithmically) the trading behavior in an agent-based model. This may lead to a better understanding of how the market converges to an equilibrium and of the mechanism that allows dissemination of private information in the market.     

股票价值分布曲线及其应用

基于股票价值的不确定性,我们可以建立股票价值的分布曲线。通过股票价值分布曲线,不仅可以明晰股票价格的决定机制,推导出股票市场的供给、需求曲线,而且还可以解释许多股票市场现象和问题,如:小盘高价大盘低价现象、价格操纵等问题。     

关于我国证券市场风险防范问题的思考

本文就我国的证券市场的存在的风险防范面临的主要问题进行分析,为如何正确的进行证券市场风险规避提出一些建议。     

On the plausibility of sunspot equilibria

This study examines the plausibility of the emergence of sunspot equilibria in an agent-based artificial stock market. Using the agent-based model, we make the sunspots explicit so that we can test, e.g., by means of the Granger causality test, whether purely extrinsic uncertainty can influence price dynamics. In addition, through agent-based simulation, the coordination process, which is mainly driven by genetic programming, becomes observable, which enables us to analyze what agents perceive and whether they believe in sunspots. By manipulating different control variables, three series of experiments are conducted. Generally speaking, the chances of observing “sunspot equilibria” in this agent-based artificial stock market are small. However, the sunspot believers can never be driven out of the market. Nevertheless, they are always outnumbered by fundamental believers, which is evidence that the market as collective behavior is rational. We also find that lengthening the time horizon will make it difficult for sunspot believers to survive.     

经济新闻自由度与资本市场的有效性

从金融经济学"效率市场假说"的理论与实证研究结果角度分析经济新闻自由对于金融市场发展的影响后认为,经济新闻自由是实现效率市场的宏观机制之一;只有充分的经济新闻自由,信息才能迅速而充分地扩散到市场,并被包括到资产的价格中,从而实现效率市场,促进资本市场的发展。利用世界银行各国股市市值数据与"自由之家"对各国新闻自由度的评定数据进行的统计分析表明,经济新闻自由与股市市值之间具有显著的正相关性。     

Speculative behavior and the dynamics of interacting stock markets

We develop a simple agent-based financial market model in which heterogeneous speculators apply technical and fundamental analysis to trade in two different stock markets. Speculators׳ strategy/market selections are repeated at each time step and depend on predisposition effects, herding behavior and market circumstances. Simulations reveal that our model is able to explain a number of nontrivial statistical properties of and between international stock markets, including bubbles and crashes, fat-tailed return distributions, volatility clustering, persistent trading volume, coevolving stock prices and cross-correlated volatilities. Against this background, our model may be deemed to have been validated.     

Should we worry about the decline of the public corporation? A brief survey of the economics and external effects of the stock market

In recent years, the number of listed companies has been declining in many countries across the world. This paper provides a selective survey of the literature on the real economic effects of the stock market to assess the potential effects of this decline and determine whether it is likely to continue. The leading economic role of the stock market’s primary market, in which firms raise capital by issuing new shares, is to help growing firms secure financing. We discuss providing and certifying information, coordinating investors, and easing the redeployment of capital as the means through which capital allocation can be efficiently achieved. The main economic roles of the stock market’s secondary market, the trade in existing shares, is to provide liquidity to shareholders, to aid in price discovery and to provide diversification opportunities. Positive external effects from an active stock market may arise for consumers, labor and private firms due to increased corporate investment, more socially responsible business strategies and a more positive business climate. Negative external effects on capital allocation and productivity can arise from short-termism, market mispricing, and increased cross-ownership. Local stock markets can spur innovation and foreign direct investment (FDI) and reduce the risk of early cross-border acquisitions. Given the myriad of useful economic functions the stock market performs, a future entirely absent of public companies is difficult to imagine and the decline is therefore likely at some point to come to an end. Whether we need to worry about the decline depends on the relative importance of the positive and negative external effects, a topic we feel warrants more research.     

信息披露和证券交易中的合谋行为分析

证券市场中各市场主体之间的合谋行为会产生虚假信息,扭曲市场价格,损害投资者利益和市场效率。研究市场中的合谋行为对建立完善的市场运作和管理机制具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。通过对市场交易过程和信息披露过程中合谋行为的分析,揭示市场机制设计中各可控外生性变量的调控方向和力度。研究表明,在存在监管合谋的情况下,处罚的效果是不确定的,而奖励机制可以有效的减少合谋的发生。     

The dynamics of the leverage cycle

We present a simple agent-based model of a financial system composed of leveraged investors such as banks that invest in stocks and manage their risk using a Value-at-Risk constraint, based on historical observations of asset prices. The Value-at-Risk constraint implies that when perceived risk is low, leverage is high and vice versa; a phenomenon that has been dubbed pro-cyclical leverage. We show that this leads to endogenous irregular oscillations, in which gradual increases in stock prices and leverage are followed by drastic market collapses, i.e. a leverage cycle. This phenomenon is studied using simplified models that give a deeper understanding of the dynamics and the nature of the feedback loops and instabilities underlying the leverage cycle. We introduce a flexible leverage regulation policy in which it is possible to continuously tune from pro-cyclical to countercyclical leverage. When the policy is sufficiently countercyclical and bank risk is sufficiently low the endogenous oscillation disappears and prices go to a fixed point. While there is always a leverage ceiling above which the dynamics are unstable, countercyclical leverage policies can be used to raise the ceiling. We also study the impact on leverage cycles of direct, temporal control of the bank׳s riskiness via the bank׳s required Value-at-Risk quantile. Under such a rule the regulator relaxes the Value-at-Risk quantile following a negative stock price shock and tightens it following a positive shock. While such a policy rule can reduce the amplitude of leverage cycles, its effectiveness is highly dependent on the choice of parameters. Finally, we investigate fixed limits on leverage and show how they can control the leverage cycle.     

CAPM模型在上海股票市场的有效性检验

根据资本资产定价模型(CAPM),从上海A股市场随机抽取100支股票,计算它们的收益率,选择上证综合指数为市场组合的市场指数,并利用双层回归分析方法对2007年1月1日至2011年12月31日这段时间的100支股票进行实证检验。虽然很多国外研究表明,CAPM模型在一定程度上能够解释市场收益,并在资产估价、资本预算、投资风险分析方面已经得到了广泛应用,同时也有利于投资者构建最优的证券投资组合,但本文实证研究结果发现,CAPM模型并不适合中国的股票市场,股票预期收益率和系统风险之间不仅不存在正相关的关系,而且也不存在线性关系,除了系统风险外,非系统风险在解释股票收益上也具有一定的作用。