The Reagan dollar

In a recent editorial (cf. INTERECONOMICS, No. 3/1984, p. 101) Professor Armin Gutowski commented on the surprising increase of the external value of the US dollar which seems to defy traditional explanations of exchange rate determination. The following article presents an American economist’s view of the same subject.     

The dollar and special drawing rights

The IMF's Interim Committee recently for the first time discussed the creation of a “Substitution Account” to convert certain amounts of excess reserve currencies into SDRs. This issue is likely to be on the agenda of the next annual meeting of the IMF in the fall of this year. Prof. Feuerlein discusses the problems of such an account.     

What to do if a dollar is not a dollar? The impact of inflation risk on production and risk management

An entrepreneur faces two types of risk: one from income generation, one from income spending. His income from firm profits is risky due to output price fluctuations and other risks. As a consumer, he is also exposed to inflation risk since he maximizes expected utility of real income. This article focuses on optimal production and risk management decisions of a risk‐averse entrepreneur jointly facing tradable output price risk and untradable inflation risk. Inflation risk applies multiplicatively to the entrepreneur's entire nominal income. Relative risk aversion and the risks' joint distribution determine the effect of introducing a futures market on production. For dependent risks, this effect may be negative if relative risk aversion is above one. Relative risk aversion and the joint distribution also determine optimal risk management with futures contracts where speculation on a real risk premium and cross hedging may be conflicting objectives. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22:371–386, 2002     

The Euro versus the U.S. dollar: an overview

The creation of the euro will prove to be a remarkable development in international relations and carries far-reaching implications for the international monetary system. The objectives of this paper are four-fold. The first objective is to provide a brief overview of previous monetary unions in Europe. It covers three surviving monetary unions and two that failed. The second objective is to provide a review of major developments leading to the creation of the euro. The third objective is to analyze the opportunities and threats associated with the euro. The fourth objective is to provide an overview of the on-going debate as to whether the euro will be a serious challenger to the U.S. dollar.     

The US stock market and the international value of the US dollar

We investigate the spillover effect of the US equity market on the value of the dollar and therefore on the return and volatility of US equity investments for the international investor. The data are daily observations of the S & P 500 and the US dollar in terms of seven foreign currencies covering the period 1971–2002. Using Geweke measures of feedback, we find a high percentage of contemporaneous association between daily movements in the S & P 500 index and changes in the value of the dollar. A consistently positive relationship between the S & P 500 and the dollar is found for the period 1992–2002, creating a compounding effect for the foreign investor in US equities. However, investment by foreigners in US equities did not result in consistently higher returns but in higher volatility compared to their US counterparts for the period 1971–2002.     

Exchange market intervention and the US dollar

In the past years central banks of major Western industrialised countries have repeatedly attempted to change the trend of the US-Dollar rate by means of intervention in the foreign exchange markets. Our authors analyse the objectives, effects and chances of success of such exchange market interventions.     

如何应对美元贬值

文章从介绍美元的历史及现状入手,揭示美元贬值的历史原因,如何成功应对美元贬值及美元未来走势不确定性可能对我国经济产生的影响,确保我国经济持续快速健康的发展,是值得做进一步研究和探讨的问题.     

Target zones for the US dollar?

The discussion of target zones for flexible exchange rates is evidence of the desire to experiment with new instruments for stabilising the international monetary system. What distinguishes target zones from systems of flexible and fixed exchange rates? What form should they take? How should one regard the various objections to target zones?