The Competing Agendas of Economic Reform and Peace Process: A Politico-Economic Model Applied to Guatemala

Governments face a critical dilemma in the direct aftermath of civil wars. They have to deal with the diverging agendas of peace-building and economic reform, both of which are urgently required to put the economy back on track and consolidate peace. The paper introduces a macroeconometric model that comprises not only economic variables, but also political and conflict-related ones. Simulations of both economic and peace conditionality in the case of Guatemala highlight stark contradictions between the two types of conditions when looking at politico-economic interactions, calling for increased policy coherence in the overall response of the international community.     

The role of macroeconomic policy in rebalancing growth

The aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2007–2009 has called the export-led growth model of many Asian economies into question. This paper describes the contribution that macroeconomic policy can make to promote a rebalancing of growth away from dependence on exports to developed economies to a more sustainable pattern of growth centered on domestic and regional demand. This represents a significant departure from the traditional uses of macroeconomic policy to stabilize the economic cycle and achieve stable and low inflation. The evidence suggests that macroeconomic policy can successfully contribute to growth rebalancing. Policy measures not only can affect aggregate demand directly, but can also affect it indirectly via their “microeconomic” impacts on private sector behavior such as the household savings rate. Although in the long-term fiscal policy should be balanced to maintain government debt stability and avoid crowding out of private investment, there may be substantial scope to expand monetary and fiscal policy in the medium-term to offset the deflationary effects of an appreciating currency during periods of current account reversal. Previous experience suggests that most of the needed stimulus can be provided by monetary policy, with only a supplementary role to be played by fiscal policy. Moreover, Asian economies with large current account surpluses tend to have sufficient fiscal space.     

Macroeconomic management amid ethnic diversity: Fifty years of Malaysian experience

This paper examines the role that macroeconomic policy has played in the Malaysian development experience. Given the multiracial nature of Malaysian society, macroeconomic policy has not only been about economic stabilization, but also about addressing income disparities along racial lines in order to preserve social harmony. The affirmative action program under the New Economic Policy (NEP) was an important signaling device, and served to demonstrate that all should share in future growth. These selective interventions were clearly distortionary, and promoted a culture of dependence on state hand-outs, as well as rent-seeking behavior. It was perhaps fortunate that FDI inflows and rapid export expansion were available to augment the domestic resource base. Although its resource cost was not a major drag on growth in the past, the slowdown in FDI inflows and exports post-crisis, combined with demographic change, implies that reforms may be necessary to ensure sustainability, going forward.     

Public investment and business cycles: The case of Japan

This paper examines the effect of public investment on macroeconomic fluctuations in Japan by comparing the effects of central and local government investments. Impulse response functions show that central government investments slightly but persistently stimulate industrial production, while local government investments have no positive impact on business cycles. In terms of policy effectiveness, these results suggest that the Japanese government should not employ local public sector investments as a policy instrument for economic stabilization.     

The Kissinger commission report: A critique

This paper offers a critical analysis of the findings of the Kissinger Commission on Central America. While taking into account the time pressures and the variety of opinions which influenced the Report, and noting some promising conceptual advances, the author points out a number of important internal inconsistencies and contradictions. These relate to both political and economic factors impinging on the Central American development process. The author finds that most of the economic analysis and policy proposals are sound, but two vital contradictions appear in contrasting the economic necessities with political strategies: sustained economic development requires political peace and would benefit from regional integration, but the recommended political strategies seem to preclude both. The author concludes with an alternative series of premises on which to base a coherent and pragmatic policy.     

关键货币境外余额的国际政治经济学——美国的境外美元管理及其对中国的影响

关键货币境外余额是重要的国际经济变量,它不仅会影响关键货币的国际地位和全球金融市场稳定,也关系到境外关键货币持有国的经济稳定和储备资产安全。关键货币国通过经济、外交甚至军事手段对境外货币余额的规模、资产配置、地区分布以及持有者结构实施管理,以便实现对外融资、获取经济安全和榨取财富等多重目标。在金融危机背景下,基于经济安全、国际博弈和对外融资的目的,美国大致会阶段性地吸引美元回流并调控其在国外的分布,但美元霸权地位和美国国内的两党政治体制将使其境外美元余额的规模在长期内进一步扩张,因此人民币近期仍面临升值压力,欧洲和新兴市场国家金融动荡将会持续甚至加剧。随着中国国内资产价格的下跌,美元的升值和回流在中期时段内可能会冲击中国宏观经济稳定;如果美国不能控制其财政赤字,中国将长期面临美债和美元违约的巨大风险。中国需要降低宏观脆弱性,加速调整经济发展模式,从根本上摆脱美元陷阱。     

Business Cycle in China since the Lehman Crisis： Interaction among Macroeconomic Policy,Economic Growth and Inflation

The major objectives of China＇s macroeconomic policy are to stabilize economic growth and inflation, which, in turn, are important factors determining key prices, such as the policy interest rate, the renminbi exchange rate and stockprices. In a framework that distinguishes different phases of the business cycle based on whether the current period＇s economic growth rate and inflation rate are above or below their ＂＇normal＂ values, this paper analyzes the interaction among macroeconomic policy, economic growth and inflation in China since the Lehman crisis, and the implications for these key prices. The path of China＇s economy indicates that stimulus measures taken by the government during the recession phase and tightening measures implemented during the overheating phase have helped minimize the fluctuation over the business cycle. Our analysis shows that Chinese authorities tend to rely more on adjusting the exchange rate than the interest rate to stabilize the economy. Comparing with conditions at the time of the post-Lehman recession, the current slowpace of economie growth in China may reflect not only weakening demand, but also a lowerpotential growth rate associated with the arrival of the Lewis turning point.     

我国当前货币政策传导机制受阻的因素分析

近几年来,我国货币宏观调控力度加大,但对经济增长的刺激效应并不明显,效果并不理想。为此,本文针对我国当前的货币政策传导机制受阻的因素进行分析,认为货币政策效果不仅取决于货币政策传导机制自身的构成和规范程度,也取决于货币政策传导中各环节经济主体的行为及所处的外部环境。     

Macroeconomic stabilization through monetary and fiscal policy coordination: Implications for European Monetary Union

In a two-country model, we consider the implications of monetary and fiscal policy coordination for macroeconomic stabilization. We show that the optimal regime is one of monetary and fiscal policy coordination under flexible exchange rates. In the context of the European Community, this suggests that the desire to fix exchange rates may not be costless. In addition, we show that fiscal coordination requires a relatively high degree of flexibility in fiscal policy. This result suggests that limits on the flexibility of fiscal policies, as suggested in the Delors Report, may hinder macroeconomic stabilization.     

服务国家政治外交战略的政府主导型展会促进城市发展的实证分析——以中国—东盟博览会为例

以东博会为例,对服务国家政治外交战略的政府主导型展会促进城市发展进行了定性分析和实证检验。此类展会在政治收益方面能提升城市的国家战略地位,获得发展资源的投入;在社会收益方面能提升城市居民素质发展、城市知名度和就业水平;在经济收益方面通过促进宏观经济增长和对外开放、带动产业发展及调整产业结构实现,其中展会质量比规模更能促进经济发展和开放水平提升,展会不仅带动第三产业发展而且能够跨产业实现带动作用。     

后金融危机时代我国货币政策工具的优化

货币政策是我国宏观经济调控的重要途径之一,在特定时期内制定实施合适的货币政策能够促进经济发展目标的实现。在以转变经济发展方式、优化经济结构为目标的后金融危机时代,货币政策的制定不仅要考虑对经济总量的调控,更要兼顾经济结构的调控。本文旨在对当前我国央行货币政策工具的实施情况进行归纳,以期发现新时期在兼顾总量与结构调控的背景下当前货币政策工具的不足,并提出优化货币政策工具的建议。     

Balanced development: Maoist conception and Chinese practice

This paper explores the economic reality behind the balanced development aspect of the Chinese development strategy more thoroughly than has been done previously. Firstly, it introduces material from the Wan-sui volumes to shed more light on its economic ideology, but mainly it uses the recently available macroeconomic information about the Chinese economy to examine how empirically the policy was put into effect, what its implications were for the intersectoral allocation of investment, choice of technologies, etc., and what its effects were in terms of incomes and employment. A final section compares the strategy with the ‘balanced growth’ policies of Western economic literature and the ‘harmonic growth’ advocated by Kornai.     

中国政治民主化的困境分析

民主化是当前社会发展的一个总体趋势，它在带来一定机遇的同时，也对一些迈向现代化的发展中国家提出了挑战。从民主的条件这一立场出发，在发展民主的过程中，中国需要面对一系列的困境，包括经济上的贫富差距、腐败问题；政治上的合法性与合理性问题；民主政治文化的匮乏以及公民社会培养上的难题。     

Year one of the Yudhoyono–Kalla duumvirate

In the first year of their government, the joint leadership of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Vice President Jusuf Kalla is reminiscent of Indonesia's first presidential and vice presidential team, the duumvirate or dwitunggal of President Sukarno and Vice President Mohammad Hatta. Though not without its weaknesses, the Yudhoyono–Kalla duumvirate is more likely to be successful than its predecessor, whose dissolution led to the overthrow of parliamentary democracy in the late 1950s. The problems that Indonesia faces today are more manageable; today's leaders are also more compatible in policy goals and understanding of politics. Progress to date is most notable in the organisation of the government's political power base, the policy response to the tsunami, the forging of the Aceh peace agreement, and action against corrupt officials, while economic policy making has been less successful.     

Business Cycles in Developing Countries: Are They Different?

This paper demonstrates that developing countries differ considerably from their developed counterparts when focus is on the nature and characteristics of short-run macroeconomic fluctuations. Cycles are generally shorter, and the stylized facts of business cycles across countries are more diverse than those of the rather uniform industrialized countries. Supply-side models are generally superior in explaining changes in output, but a “one-size fits all” approach in formulating policy is inappropriate. Our results also illustrate the critical importance of understanding business regularities as a stepping-stone in the process of designing appropriate stabilization policy and macroeconomic management in developing countries.     

On ‘the political economy of stabilization’

Joan Nelson (1984) includes Sri Lanka in the period 1977–1982 in a series of case studies of the factors affecting the political acceptability of stabilization and adjustment programs. This is misleading because, unlike the other countries dealt with, Sri Lanka was not faced with an economic crisis when it accepted large multilateral loans under policy conditionality. In fact, the economic policies pursued in Sri Lanka after 1977 reflect the interests and political program of the domestic capitalist class. The existence of such a class introduces dimensions to the analysis of the politics of adjustment not dealt with in Nelson's framework.     

The Resources Allocation Effects of Indonesia's Financial Repression in the 1974–1983 Period

We found that the selective credit policy of the 1974-83 period benefitted the Indonesian economy in a way unanticipated by the protagonists in the financial repression debate. The selective credit policy by favoring the manufacturing and trade sectors reduced their decimation by the overvalued exchange rate created by expansionary macroeconomic policies. The existence of a sizeable tradeable sector when the negative balance of payments shocks hit after 1981 enabled Indonesia to earn enough foreign exchange to service its external debts and thus avoid the type of prolonged economic crisis experienced by Latin America. (It must be stressed that the selective credit policy constituted only one of the policy actions that preserved the economic viability of the tradeable sector.) Since the selective credit policy was not undertaken with the expectation of negative balance of payments shocks in 1980s, its beneficial effects on economic development were entirely fortuitous.     

经济增长与政策转型——论新时期发展方向及社会科学研究

文章从国史与国际角度考察中国发展方向,着眼经济增长与政策转型核心问题,并探讨有关社会科学研究及其中国特色。1978年摒弃“以阶级斗争为纲”的历史转变,彻底实现了“经济国家”使命并借助改革开放取得经济成就。但目前面临的重大社会课题（包括社会公平、政府结构及其经济职能蜕变等）亟需深入研究。国家总体公共政策正面临从“以经济建设为中心”走向更高阶段的新的转折。经济仍然是不能取代的重要基础,但各项政策规划需要尽快向社会经济平衡发展模式转变。在马克思主义政治经济学及科学社会主义指导下有关人的发展经济学研究,可成为中国社会科学的一大特色。     

区域经济发展视角下我国民航区域市场需求分析及发展政策研究

在现代社会中,民航运输业作为交通运输基础产业不仅是城市间物质、资源交换的载体,同时也是各地政府促进区域经济发展和转型升级的重要条件。本文首先基于对航空运输的网络产业特性的分析,揭示航空运输与区域经济的内在关系。其次从区域市场经济发展水平、运输能力等角度,构建民航区域市场需求的指标体系,利用多元统计分析方法和多年统计数据进行实证研究,并对我国各省市民航市场发展水平进行综合评价。根据民航发展的内在机理,提出政府发展和规划民航业的政策建议。