Supply potential and annual availability of timber and forest biomass resources for energy considering inter-prefectural trade in Japan

This study estimates the supply potential and annual availability of timber and forest biomass resources under profitable forest management in Japan. It focuses on four prefectures, namely, Fukushima, Ibaraki, Tochigi, and Gunma, and considers the trade between these prefectures. Production forests were extracted as subcompartments where the expected revenues surpassed all costs, from planting to final harvest. To estimate harvesting costs, appropriate harvesting systems were determined according to each prefecture’s topographical features. The log markets and woody biomass power generation plants were assumed to be the destinations for timber and forest biomass resources. Annual availability from the Cut-To-Length (CTL) system, consisting of the use of harvesters and forwarders, accounted for 58 % of the total availability, even though the supply potential from CTL was only 15 %; this is because CTL is the most productive and least expensive harvesting system. Then, the effects of subsidies on availability are examined. Availability under an additional regeneration subsidy meets almost the entire current demand in this region. Furthermore, availability with a thinning subsidy can meet the forecasted future demand in this region, while availability with both thinning and additional regeneration subsidies can meet future demand in all prefectures analyzed in the present study. Thus, subsidies play an important role in the profitability of forestry operations as well as the supply of timber and forest biomass resources in Japan.     

Assessing forest management strategies using a contingent valuation approach and advanced visualisation techniques: A Portuguese case study

The assessment of alternative forest management strategies should account not only for the private benefits to forest landowners but also for the ecological, environmental and economic benefits valued by society. There are a number of empirical valuation methods that may contribute to that assessment. These methods involve several steps: data acquisition, model specification and estimation. In this paper, this approach is illustrated in the context of a survey regarding alternative management strategies for a forest area in Central Portugal by implementing a contingent valuation experiment where an advanced landscape visualisation technique is employed to generate the visual information conveyed in the valuation scenarios. Several econometric model specifications are considered as well as alternative approaches to handle zero willingness to pay values and protest responses. The results obtained suggest the potential of the proposed approach for an effective comparison of alternative forest management strategies.     

Colonialism and conservation: Commercialisation of forests and decline of tribals in Madras Presidency, 1882–1947

This article attempts to analyse the colonial forest policy and its impact on the environment and tribals in Madras Presidency during the post-Forest Act period (1882–1947). During this period, the colonial regime has actively encouraged commercialisation of forest resources while several restrictions were clamped up on the tribals and other forest users. Here it is argued that the initiatives of the state towards conservation were primarily intended to curtail the access enjoyed by tribals and other forest users to facilitate commercial exploitation. Plunder of forest wealth continued unhindered in a systematic manner leading to denudation of vast stretches of green cover and a drastic decline in the living conditions of the tribals in Madras Presidency.     

Payments for environmental services in Indonesia: What if economic signals were lost in translation?

This article provides an analysis of a payment for environmental services (PES) scheme in the Cidanau watershed, Indonesia. It contributes to the debate on the alleged effectiveness of such economic incentives to actually change decisions among land users. Building on the standard PES theory of change, one would assume that farmers respond to payments and change their land use decisions accordingly for the delivery of environmental services. However, at the project level the impacts of economic incentives depend on how the signal is transmitted to decision-makers. An extensive household survey was undertaken among 270 participating farmers in order to investigate these assumptions. Results indicate that farmers join the scheme for intrinsic motivations rather than because of economic incentives. Besides, the scheme does not target farmers whose decisions could be changed for the sake of service provision. Finally, farmer group leaders display disproportionate power of decision while individual farmers have a low level of understanding of the PES programme. As a consequence, land use patterns might not depend on the economic incentive only; rather they are likely to be determined by the local social context, traditions and economic dependency on forests. This in turn casts some doubts on the strong (yet contested) economic assumptions that underlie the emergence of PES schemes and on their modus operandi in developing countries.     

Upstream demand for water use by new tree plantations imposes externalities on downstream irrigated agriculture and wetlands*

Large‐scale tree plantations in high rainfall upstream areas can reduce fresh water inflows to river systems, thereby imposing external costs on downstream irrigation, stock and domestic water users and wetland interests. We take the novel approach of expressing all benefits and costs of establishing plantations in terms of $ per gigalitre (GL) of water removed annually from river flows, setting upstream demands on the same basis as downstream demands. For the Macquarie Valley, a New South Wales sub‐catchment of Australia’s Murray‐Darling Basin, we project changes in land and water use and changes in economic surpluses under two policy settings: without and with a policy requiring permanent water entitlements to be purchased from downstream parties, before plantation establishment. Without the policy, and given a high stumpage value for trees ($70/m³), upstream gains in economic surplus projected from expanding plantations are $639 million; balanced against $233 million in economic losses by downstream irrigators and stock and domestic water users for a net gain of $406 million, but 345 GL lower mean annual environmental flows. With the policy, smaller gains in upstream economic surplus from trees ($192 million), added to net downstream gains ($138 million) from sale of water, result in gains of $330 million with no reduction in environmental flows. Sustaining the 345 GL flow for a $76 million (406–330) reduction in gains to economic surplus may be seen to cost only $0.22 million/GL; but this is much lower than the market value of the first units of that water to agriculture and forestry.     

Further generalization of Faustmann's formula for stochastic interest rates

Markov decision process (MDP) models generalize Faustmann's formula by recognizing that future stand states, prices, and interest rates, are not known exactly. Buongiorno (Forest Science 47(4) 2001) presents a dynamic programming and a linear programming formulation of the MDP model with a fixed interest rate. Both formulations are generalized here to account for a stochastic interest rate. The objective function is the expected present value of returns over an infinite horizon. It gives, like Faustmann's formula, the value of the land and the eventual standing trees. The changes between stand states, prices, and interest rate, are represented by Markov chains. Faustmann's formula is a special case where the change from one state to another has 0 or 1 probability, and the interest rate is constant. The MDP model applies to any stand state, even- or uneven-aged, and the best decisions are tied uniquely to the current system state. An example shows the effects of recognizing variations in interest rate on the land expectation value, and the cost of ignoring them.     

Spot water markets and risk in water supply

Water availability patterns in semiarid regions are typically extremely variable. Even in basins with a highly developed infrastructure, users are subject to unreliable water supplies, incurring substantial economic losses during periods of scarcity. More flexible instruments, such as voluntary exchanges of water among users, can help users to reduce risk exposure. This article looks at the effects of spot water markets on the economic risk caused by water availability variations. Our theoretical and empirical risk analyses are based on the random profits of water users. Profit probability density functions are formally and graphically characterized for both water sellers and buyers under several possible market outcomes. We conclude from this analysis that, where water supply is stochastic, water markets unambiguously reduce both parties' risk exposure. The empirical study is conducted on an irrigation district in the Guadalquivir Valley (Southern Spain), where there is a high probability of periods of extreme water scarcity. Water demand functions for the district representative irrigators and a spatial equilibrium model are used to simulate market exchanges and equilibrium. This programming model is combined with statistical simulation techniques. We show that the profit probability distribution of a representative irrigator is modified if water exchanges are authorized, leading to risk reductions. Results also indicate that if the market were extended to several districts and users that are subject to varying hydrological risk exposure, extremely low‐profit events would be less likely to occur. In sum, we show that exchanging water in annual spot markets can reduce farmers' economic vulnerability caused by water supply variability across irrigation seasons. These results support the water policy reform carried out in Spain in 1999 to allow for voluntary water exchanges among right holders.     

Total income and ecosystem service sustainability index: Accounting applications to holm oak dehesa case study in Andalusia-Spain

This research develops the novel concept of an economic ecosystem service sustainability index from the perspective of total income theory, and presents its empirical application at the spatial unit scale of the agroforestry farm. This paper compares the results accrued from applying the refined standard System of National Accounts (rSNA) and the authors’ Agroforestry Accounting System (AAS). The AAS extends the rSNA to capture economic activities without manufactured production costs and substitutes the production cost valuations for exchange values revealed/stated by consumer willingness to pay for consumption of final products without market prices, the aim being to provide more comprehensive figures for total and environmental incomes of the agroforestry farms. Both accounting frameworks are applied to a case study of sixteen large, non-industrial, privately-owned holm oak dehesas (agroforestry farms) in Andalusia-Spain. This dehesa application provides estimates for the economic ecosystem service, total income factorial allocation, total capital and economic ecosystem service sustainability index for the aggregate and individual economic activities of the dehesa, distributed between accounts for the farmer and government institutional sector economic activities. The AAS explicit measurements of the hidden rSNA ecosystem services and environmental incomes of the dehesa allow us to further our scientific understanding of the current and future contributions of environmental income from nature to the total income of society as well as to provide information to the policy makers so that action can be taken to mitigate the depletion and degradation of environmental assets. This dehesa application reveals that environmental income measured by the AAS accounts for 67 % of total income in 2010. The dehesa AAS and rSNA ecosystem services share 34 % and 26 % of total product consumptions, respectively. Coupled with the AAS economic ecosystem service sustainability index of 0.5 and the rSNA economic ecosystem service sustainability index of 0.2, these figures indicate total product over-consumption in 2010. The dehesa case study shows that the AAS ecosystem services and environmental incomes are 2.5 and 8.4 times higher than those of the rSNA, respectively. Once the theoretic robustness of non-market product consumption simulated transaction value is accepted, as in the AAS methodology, the expected official economic ecosystem accounting framework will mainly depend on its ongoing standardization by the United Nations Statistical Division and implementation by individual governments. Thus, the challenge of standardizing and implementing such a framework is more closely linked to governmental policy measures than to the current scientific weakness of non-market product consumption valuations.     

THE PROBLEM OF IMPUTING A CHARGE FOR FARMERS‘ MANAGEMENT: A COMMENT

In a recent article in this journal, Simon (1979) presented a model intended to provide a basis for the empirical estimation, from FMS data, of the value of the farmer's management input. Unfortunately, Simon's model can be used for this purpose only with the aid of some apparently arbitrary assumptions which are produced without critical examination or empirical evidence. We believe that his approach reveals a mistaken view of how farmers actually behave and a confusion as to the problem and purpose of imputing costs to non-traded items.     

Effects of decoupling on the mean and variability of output

The influence of inputs on output risk in the context of agriculturalproduction decisions taken by non-risk neutral agents has beenignored by previous research assessing the effects of decoupledincome support payments in a deterministic world or risk-neutralframework. We study the impacts of decoupled payments on inputuse and on output mean and variance. Our theoretical frameworkfor studying agricultural producers' responses to lump sum paymentsallows for both output and price uncertainty and economic agents'risk attitudes. Results show the importance, in a non-risk neutralscenario, of considering the influence that economic agentshave on the stochastic component of output through input use.Our empirical application uses Kansas farm-level data to illustratethe model.     

The multiple effects of carbon values on optimal rotation

Non-consumptive benefits which increase with crop age, like keeping carbon sequestered, lengthen optimal rotation compared with rotation for timber alone. High proposed carbon prices may extend rotation indefinitely. Carbon storage in wood products reduces this tendency. Biomass as an energy source displacing fossil fuels favours rotations near those of maximum biomass productivity. Use of sawn timber to displace structural materials with high embodied carbon favours somewhat longer rotations. Effects of rotation on soil carbon, and fossil carbon volatilised in harvesting operations, are further complications. Including all carbon effects results in optimal rotations somewhat longer than those based only on timber value, but shorter than those based on timber plus forest carbon. To include all factors intuitively is not possible: balanced appraisal needs economic calculations.     

Product Labeling and Economic Value of Milk Market Segmentation

Abstract

This study explores the economic benefit from labeling milk and milk products and its impact on the supply and demand for fluid milk. The empirical estimate measures the economic value of milk market segmentation based on consumers' willingness to pay for hormonefree milk. The study uses survey data from Kansas households and applied a Probit model for willingness-to-pay and an ordinary least square model for demand analysis. The empirical results show that as long as consumers are willing to pay a higher price for bSTfree milk society would benefit from milk market segmentation.     

Optimal rotation with declining discount rate

In recent years it has been argued, from many perspectives, that the further into the future a value flow occurs, the lower is the appropriate discount rate for it. National governments are now beginning to authorise such declining discount rates. This viewpoint can be, and has been, formalised in various ways, and has been applied to evaluating forestry investments of given durations. When the optimal duration of investment is itself the issue, new problems arise. Lower discount rates make subsequent rotations longer than earlier ones, and for a given length more valuable than they would otherwise be. This affects the optimal length of earlier rotations, which in turn may affect the discount rate profile applicable to later ones. In the absence of analytical solutions for the optimal sequence of rotations, numerical protocols are needed. The results arising are mostly in accord with expectations. If the change of discount rate is due to expected changes of circumstance that are actually realised, then the optimal sequence of rotations will remain as initially determined. If, however, it is due merely to the particular time perspective of the present generation, rotations will be revised by future generations. This will lead to a sequence of rotations similar to that deemed optimal at the current short-term discount rate. The most important reductions in profitability caused by choosing the “wrong” discounting protocol arise from the “wrong” rate, rather than by using declining rates as such.     

粮食主产区农业用水效率及其影响因素

基于2005—2019年粮食主产区13个省(自治区)相关农业数据,应用柯布-道格拉斯函数形式的SFA模型和Tobit模型对我国粮食主产区农业用水效率影响因素进行实证分析。结果表明：农业生产技术效率值和农业用水效率值均小于1,粮食主产区节水潜力大;农业用水效率的地区差异大,安徽省数值最低;主要城市年均气温、农业用水占总用水量比例、地表水资源、有效灌溉面积、小麦和玉米占农作物播种面积比例这6个变量数值的增加对农业用水效率值有显著的正向影响。     

Department of environment planning research for 1985/86

Summary

In a previous paper (Land Development Studies, 5, 145–177), the problems of measuring property markets were reviewed. Some of the problems discussed included the quality and quantity of data caused by the small number of transactions as a proportion of total stock of property, secrecy in the property market, and the individual nature of each property. These result in a reliance on subjective analysis of transaction data (to form value estimates) rather than the use of actual transactions to construct rental value indices.

This paper sets out the collection and analysis of data and the subsequent construction of shop rental value indices for the local property market of Nottingham which is situated in the East Midlands region of the UK.

The attempt to construct a long‐term data set (from 1910–86) highlights the problems of data availability and quality of information. It also highlights the problems associated with national and regional location indices which use one rent point within a centre to represent value movements across part or all of that centre. The Nottingham indices indicate a wide divergence of annual growth rates from different rent points within the centre and suggest that single point measurements should therefore be treated with caution.     

农民合作社是有效的益贫组织吗?

本文从农民合作社的组织特性出发,分析了贫困户加入合作社改善其经济状况、提高其生活满意度的机理,然后利用2017年"精准扶贫精准脱贫百村调查"的3216户贫困户数据,使用可处理内生性的扩展回归模型,估计了贫困户加入合作社对其收入和生活满意度的影响。研究结果发现:加入合作社可以让贫困户年家庭人均纯收入增加872元,且对实际贫困户的增收效应更大;加入合作社可以显著提高贫困户的生活满意度,且对实际贫困户的提升作用更强;社会交往是加入合作社影响贫困户生活满意度的中介变量,可以解释加入合作社对贫困户生活满意度影响的17.37%。因此,政策制定应更加重视农民合作社的多维益贫性。     

THE ECONOMIC ADVANTAGE OF LONGEVITY IN THE DAIRY COW

An adaptive stochastic dynamic programming model is described which solves the optimum replacement decision problem for the dairy cow under physical and financial assumptions currently typical for the UK. By expressing the expected net present value of the replacement heifer as an annuity equivalent under various assumptions with and without enforced (involuntary) culling an estimate of the value of longevity was obtained and an assessment made of its sensitivity to key assumptions. Increased longevity added about $20 per extra lactation per year on to the investment potential of the replacement dairy heifer under the assumptions made. This figure is sensitive to replacement cost, but could be used to provide economic values for longevity as part of an economic breeding objective for dairy cattle in the UK.     

透视中国能源消费结构

文章以能源与经济发展的关系为切入点,具体分析中国能源的消费结构及其在经济发展中存在的问题。重点对石油、煤炭等一次性能源年度消费数据进行剖析;同时将我国与美国的能源消费状况进行详细对比分析,进一步透析我国能源消费在经济发展中存在的问题,进而指出:较长时间内中国的能源需求趋势依然强劲,中国必须改变现有的能源结构以摆脱高能耗的经济面貌。