监督制度、市场信息与协议地价-基于杭州市土地储备制度改革的经验

对杭州市1992-2001年城市土地市场中的367宗土地交易资料的分析表明,监督制度和市场信息是影响协议地价与招标、拍卖标底地价的主要因素.在土地市场发育不完善的1992年,标底地价与该宗地相对应的基准地价不存在差异.监督制度的不健全,导致1995年协议地价低于基准地价.监督制度比较完善、土地市场发育比较成熟的1999-2001年,协议地价、标底地价都显著的高于基准地价.     

监督制度、市场信息与协议地价-基于杭州市土地储备制度改革的经验

对杭州市1992—2001年城市土地市场中的367宗土地交易资料的分析表明,监督制度和市场信息是影响协议地价与招标、拍卖标底地价的主要因素。在土地市场发育不完善的1992年,标底地价与该宗地相对应的基准地价不存在差异。监督制度的不健全,导致1995年协议地价低于基准地价。监督制度比较完善、土地市场发育比较成熟的1999—2001年,协议地价、标底地价都显著的高于基准地价。     

基于GIS的地价空间分布规律研究--以北京市住宅地价为例

利用北京市1998—2003年的普通住宅出让地价资料,采用统计分析和GIS空间分析相结合的方法,得到北京市普通住宅出让地价的系列空间分布图,在此基础之上揭示北京市住宅地价空间分布规律及其成因。分析结果表明:地价的分布在空间上既有连续性,也存在变异性。文章提出了地价梯度和地价指向,作为表征地价空间变化的两项指标,也存在明显的空间差异。     

近50年来我国区域经济空间极化的变化趋势研究

首先利用新近发展的ER、TW指数,以人均实际国内生产总值为指标,从经济总量上,详细考察了1952-2000年我国省市区经济空间极化变化趋势;其次利用广义熵的可分解特性,进一步探讨了1952-2000年我国区域经济不均衡在沿海-内陆、南方-北方区、高城镇化-低城镇化地区等具体空间方向上的极化及其变化趋势。     

EARTHQUAKE RISKS AND LAND PRICES: EVIDENCE FROM THE TOKYO METROPOLITAN AREA*

The current paper empirically addresses risk aversion of households and firms toward earthquake risks using a hazard map compiled for the entire region by the Tokyo metropolitan government in 1998. It finds strong evidence for the impact of earthquake risks on land pricing; land prices have been substantially lower in risky areas than in safe areas. That impact became more evident in the 1990s than in the 1980s, indicating that households and firms were becoming more sensitive to earthquake risks. In addition, this paper carefully examines the consistency of the estimated magnitude of earthquake risk premiums within a framework of the expected utility hypothesis.     

中国粮价与通货膨胀关系(1987-1999)

本研究在收集整理粮食集市价格和消费物价月度数据的基础上,利用均衡修正模型对中国1987—1999年粮价变动与通货膨胀关系进行协整分析。有很强的经验证据,说明通货膨胀与市场粮价存在长期均衡关系。因果关系走向是通货膨胀影响粮价变动,而不是粮价上涨导致通货膨胀。另外,研究还发现,我国长期真实粮价基本不变,说明传统认为粮食相对紧缺度会不断上升的观点缺乏依据。然而,粮价对通货膨胀冲击做出反应时,通常会发生过度或超量调节。     

A PBOBLEM IN PRICES AND QUANTITIES

"Most of us were brought up to employ such index numbers as Sauerbeck's… much too lightheartedly, and without sufficient warning that… the actual divergences between these indexes and the Purchasing Power of Money might prove to be, if we could calculate them, of very great significance both theoretical and practical."     

中国粮价与通货膨胀关系(1987-1999)

本研究在收集整理粮食集市价格和消费物价月度数据的基础上,利用均衡修正模型对中国1987-1999年粮价变动与通货膨胀关系进行协整分析.有很强的经验证据,说明通货膨胀与市场粮价存在长期均衡关系.因果关系走向是通货膨胀影响粮价变动,而不是粮价上涨导致通货膨胀.另外,研究还发现,我国长期真实粮价基本不变,说明传统认为粮食相对紧缺度会不断上升的观点缺乏依据.然而,粮价对通货膨胀冲击做出反应时,通常会发生过度或超量调节.     

能源消费、结构突变与中国经济增长:1952-2005

能源是现代经济增长的必要支撑,但是在理论上,能源与经济增长的关系并不明确.本文采用向量误差修正模型结合结构穿变分析,实证检验基于生产函数的能源消费与中国经济增长的关系.结果显示,"大跃进"的终结与大庆油田的量产,引发产业结构与能源结构的变迁,导致1961年能源消费也现结构突变.这使得1952-2005年能源消费与中国经济增长之间不存在长期均衡关系,但1962-2005年二者间具有协整关系.在短期能源消费内生于经济增长,长期中经济增长是能源消费变动的诱因.需要指也的是,如果忽略产业结构的影响,会低估能源消费在经济增长中的作用.     

ESTIMATING WELFARE IN INSURANCE MARKETS USING VARIATION IN PRICES

We provide a graphical illustration of how standard consumer and producer theory can be used to quantify the welfare loss associated with inefficient pricing in insurance markets with selection. We then show how this welfare loss can be estimated empirically using identifying variation in the price of insurance. Such variation, together with quantity data, allows us to estimate the demand for insurance. The same variation, together with cost data, allows us to estimate how insurer's costs vary as market participants endogenously respond to price. The slope of this estimated cost curve provides a direct test for both the existence and nature of selection, and the combination of demand and cost curves can be used to estimate welfare. We illustrate our approach by applying it to data on employer-provided health insurance from one specific company. We detect adverse selection but estimate that the quantitative welfare implications associated with inefficient pricing in our particular application are small, in both absolute and relative terms.     

EVIDENCE OF SPATIAL AUTOCORREILATION IN INTERNATIONAL PRICES

Data from the International Comparison Programme (ICP) generate a number of analyses examining price and quantity relationships across countries. Although geographic location is sometimes evoked to explain differences across observations, it is seldom used to measure the extent of this interrelationship. Using ICP Phase V benchmark studies (Summers and Heston, 1991) at the level of household consumption for approximately 64 countries and 23 aggregate headings in 1985, this paper introduces such a measure, testing for spatial autocorrelation among price relatives with respect to three different measures of relative location: the pairwise existence of a common boundary, the distance between capital cities and the amount of trade between two countries.     

Structural breaks in consumption patterns: India 1952-1991

This study improves upon the econometric modelling for testing and incorporating structural breaks for a study on Indian consumption patterns covering a period of four decades and also explores the causes of such breaks. The tests for structural breaks in consumption patterns indicate multiple break points which are not uniform across the population groups and also across commodity groups. Further, the results indicate for the first time, that the breaks could often be induced by the changes in the data collection methodology of the survey and not due to changes in consumer behaviour alone. Apart from this, there is a shift in the consumption pattern during the mid-1980s in both the rural and the urban sectors. For the lowest expenditure class the shift is away from food items with the rural sector showing a change in the price response and the urban sector showing a change in the total expenditure coefficient. For the middle and the upper expenditure classes the shifts are not only from the food items towards non-food items but also from the 'food' group that includes items like cereals, milk and milk products towards the 'other food' group which includes items like vegetables and fruits. Its causes are found to be changes in preferences as well as the income effect.