最终消费与经济增长的协整分析--基于1978～2012年数据的实证研究

根据1978～2012年我国最终消费和国内生产总值数据,借助于eviews6.0软件,通过协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、误差修正模型对我国最终消费和经济增长关系进行了实证分析。结果发现：农村居民消费、城镇居民消费、政府消费与经济增长之间存在着稳定的均衡关系;我国农村居民消费对经济增长的拉动作用最强,其次是政府消费,最后是城镇居民消费;城镇居民消费、政府消费是经济增长的单向格兰杰原因。政府消费是农村居民消费、城镇居民消费的单向格兰杰原因。     

辽宁省能源消费与经济增长关系的协整分析

本文基于辽宁省1978~2008年的GDP和能源消费统计数据,应用协整技术对辽宁省能源消费与经济增长的关系进行实证研究。结果表明,辽宁省能源消费与经济增长间存在着协整关系,并得到两者长期的协整方程。通过Granger检验,发现经济增长是能源消费的Granger原因。通过建立误差修正模型,发现误差修正项系数为负,符合反向修正机制,说明能源消费与经济增长能够保持长期稳定均衡的关系。最后通过分析比较结果,提出相关的政策建议。     

浙江省农村居民储蓄存款趋势及地区差异分析

本文首先利用协整理论和误差修正模型分析了浙江省农村居民储蓄存款与农村经济总收入之间的长期关系,接着利用Panel Data模型建立了浙江省分地区的农村居民储蓄存款模型,分析储蓄存款特征的地区差异,并对产生这些差异的原因进行了分析.     

山东省最终消费和经济增长的协整分析

本文基于协整理论和误差修正模型对山东省1978-2004年最终消费和经济增长进行协整分析。结果表明,山东省最终消费和经济增长之间是单向因果关系,且二者之间存在长期稳定的比例关系和短期协同互动的均衡关系。     

我国房地产发展与经济增长关系的实证研究

本文基于我国东、中、西部地区房地产业与经济增长的面板数据.运用面板单位根检验、协整检验与误差修正模型,对我国房地产发展与经济增长关系进行了实证分析.结果发现,东部地区和中部地区的房地产投资额与经济增长互为因果关系,但西部地区房地产投资额与经济增长并不存在因果关系;东部、中部和西部地区的商品房销售额与经济增长互为长期因果关系,但它们的商品房销售额与经济增长之间的短期因果关系却存在差异.     

基于面板协整理论的广东电力消费与经济增长分析

能源消费与经济增长的互相影响关系一直是能源经济学领域关注的焦点。应用面板数据模型检验了广东省电力消费和经济增长的关系,发现广东省电力消费和经济增长存在长期稳定的协整关系。通过面板误差修正模型,判断存在经济增长到电力消费的单向因果关系。     

能源消费与经济增长关系——基于中国1953～2007年的实证研究

随着能源短缺问题的日益突出,能源消费与经济增长关系一直是能源经济学研究的热点问题。本文在稳定性检验和协整检验的基础上,通过格兰杰因果关系检验,对我国1953～2007年能源消费与经济增长之间的动态关系进行了实证分析,分析结果表明：我国存在着从能源消费到经济增长的单向因果关系。我国经济增长对能源消费的依赖性较强,因此应大力提倡合理用能、节约用能。     

中国可再生能源消费与经济增长的时间序列分析——以水电、核电、风电为例

可再生能源消费是我国能源消费的重要组成部分,同时,国际高油价时代的来临,使得各国更为重视替代能源的经济研究,为国家政策制定提供相关依据.本文通过对1953～2006年的年度数据,运用Eviews5.0统计软件,具体分析了以水电、核电、风电为代表的中国可再生能源消费与实际GDP之间的协整关系和Granger因果关系,得出1953～2006年间可再生能源消费与经济增长之间具有稳定的协整关系,同时得出我国可再生能源消费量是GDP增长的单向显著Granger原因的结论.     

我国经济增长、能源结构与能源消费关系的实证分析

经济增长、能源结构与能源消费的关系是我国在保持经济增长的同时解决能源供需矛盾,实现能源、经济与环境可持续发展的重要问题。文章基于1978年~2007年能源统计数据,对中国经济增长、能源结构与能源消费进行了因果关系和协整性的研究。发现中国存在单向的经济增长到能源消费和能源结构的因果关系,以及能源结构和能源消费的双向因果关系。短期与长期中能源结构对于能源消费的影响都要大于经济增长对于能源消费的影响。     

省域技术创新发展差异对经济增长的影响研究--基于中部六省和东部五省市的实证分析

技术创新是经济增长的核心动力,技术创新对经济增长的贡献率的大小是区域经济发展差异的原因之一。文章以中部六省和东部五省市为研究对象,研究了1993～2013年中部六省和东部五省市地区GDP、三大产业增加值、专利申请授权量变化情况。文章基于1993～2012年中部六省和东部五省市专利申请授权量、固定资产投资总额与人均GDP数据,运用OLS回归模型、JJ多变量协整检验等计量检验方法,实证研究了不同区域技术创新与经济增长的关系。通过分析发现,东部5省市技术创新程度明显高于中部六省,东部五省市技术创新对经济增长的贡献率更大。     

城镇化发展与居民消费 ——基于工业生产率地区差异视角

为探究城镇化发展与居民消费之间的内在作用机制,本文基于工业生产率地区差异视角展开深入研究。结果表明:城镇化率与居民消费率之间不存在自发产生的“U”型演变关系,但工业生产率水平对两者的影响具有明显的地区异质性。因此,必须立足于中国经济发展实际,提高工业生产率水平。同时,加快推进城乡“二元”经济结构向城乡融合发展的转变,实现城镇化发展对居民消费的拉动作用。     

经济增长、产业结构变迁与城乡居民收入差距——基于PVAR模型的动态分析

本文运用 PVAR模型研究了我国1998～2012年的经济增长、产业结构变迁与城乡居民收入差距之间的动态关系。研究结果显示：经济增长短期内对城乡收入差距的影响具有缩小作用,但是长期来看,经济增长与城乡收入差距的变动存在相互促进作用;产业结构的调整与城乡收入差距的关系并不一致。产业结构的合理化调整有助于缩小城乡收入差距,而城乡收入差距的变动也存在促使产业结构合理化调整的推动力,产业结构的高级化缺乏缩小城乡收入差距变动的效果,同样当前城乡收入差距的变动不利于产业结构的高级化发展。     

Mobile payment and rural household consumption: Evidence from China

Exploring effective measures to promote rural household consumption is a challenge for developing countries, where rural areas often face severe financial exclusion and undeveloped commercial services. In this research, the influence of mobile payment, a popular payment method emerging in recent years, on rural household consumption is assessed by adopting China Household Finance Survey of 2017. Estimation results under the instrumental variable method suggest that mobile payment has a statistically significant and facilitating effect on rural household consumption in China. This positive effect is attributed to the benefits of mobile payment in improving financial inclusion and the convenience of consumption activities for rural areas, which is verified by performing several disaggregated analyses in our study. This work provides new evidence for the increasing literature on the economic impact of financial technology and several enlightenments for developing countries to improve the quality of public life through information intervention policies.     

Rural households in Papua New Guinea afford better diets with income from small businesses

Papua New Guinea is an economic leader in the Pacific region via its extractive resources. However, these industries do not provide employment opportunities for the country’s 6.4 million (80% of total population) rural inhabitants. Rural nonfarm enterprises (NFEs) could offer an additional source of structural change, whereby benefits are capitalized by domestic rural and urban households along the value chain. In 2018, we administered a survey to over 1000 households to gauge whether households with NFEs afford better diets. We examine the factors associated with NFE ownership using a multinomial logit (MNL) framework. We then evaluate whether welfare effects differ by the sex of the NFE owner using nearest neighbor matching to address selection into NFE ownership. Results suggest households with a NFE obtain greater levels of consumption on the order of 26% for protein per person, 11% for kilocalories per person, 13% for total yearly expenditures per person, and 10% for household dietary diversity. Results point to the resounding limitations of female-owned NFEs primarily created to cope with income risk. The findings highlight the relevance of NFEs as a poverty reduction strategy and the importance of targeting when promoting in-country entrepreneurship.     

Resource allocation decisions in low-income rural households

This paper is based on the theory that a society's nutritional well-being is both a cause and a consequence of the developmental process within that society. An approach to the choices made by poor rural households regarding food acquisition and nurturing behavior is emerging from recent research based on the new economic theory of household production. The central thesis of this approach is that household decisions related to the fulfillment of basic needs are strongly determined by decisions on the allocation of time to household production activities. Summarized are the results of the estimation of a model of household production and consumption behavior with data from a cross-sectional survey of 30 rural communities in Veraguas Province, Panama. The struture of the model consists of allocation of resources to nurturing activities and to production activities. The resources to be allocated are time and market goods, and in theory, these are allocated according to relative prices. The empirical results of this study are generally consistent with the predictions of the neoclassical economic model of household resource allocation. The major conclusions that time allocations and market price conditions matter in the determination of well-being in low-income rural households and, importantly, that nurturing decisions significantly affect the product and factor market behavior of these households form the basis for a discussion on implucations for agricultural and rural development. Programs and policies that seek nutritional improvement should be determined with explicit recognition of the value of time and the importance of timing in the decisions of the poor.     

Broadband׳s contribution to economic growth in rural areas: Moving towards a causal relationship

This paper uses recent data on both broadband availability and adoption to empirically gauge the contribution of broadband to the economic growth of rural areas of the United States over the past decade. Availability data from the National Broadband Map aggregated to county level is used in conjunction with county-level adoption data from Federal Communication Commission. Economic variables of interest include median household income, number of firms with paid employees, total employed, percentage in poverty, and the percentage of employees classified as either creative class or non-farm proprietors. A propensity score matching technique (between a “treated” group associated with various broadband thresholds and a control group) is used to make preliminary causal statements regarding broadband and economic health. Growth rates between 2001 and 2010 for different economic measures are tested for statistical differences between the treated and non-treated groups, restricting the analysis to non-metropolitan counties. Results suggest that high levels of broadband adoption in rural areas positively (and potentially causally) impacted income growth between 2001 and 2010, and negatively influenced unemployment growth. Similarly, low levels of broadband adoption in rural areas lead to declines in the number of firms and total employment numbers in the county. Broadband availability measures (as opposed to adoption) demonstrate only limited impacts, suggesting that future broadband policies should be more demand-oriented.     

Migration and the overweight and underweight status of children in rural China

The rapid economic growth in China is accompanied by a large scale rural-to-urban migration, but over time more children are left behind rural areas. This paper studies how the overweight and underweight status of the rural children is associated with the out migration of others in their household. We find that migration is related to different nutritional outcomes for the left-behind children. The older children (aged 7–12) are more likely to be underweight; the younger (aged 2–6) are less likely to be overweight if left behind without the care of a grandparent. We also find evidence that the remaining adult household members spent less time preparing meals, whereas older children take up more household chores.     

江苏省能源消费与经济增长的互动关系研究

本文依据1985~2009年江苏省能源消费总量和GDP的统计数据,运用协整理论,格兰杰因果关系检验,并在建立VAR模型的基础上进行脉冲响应函数和方差分析,对能源消费与经济增长的互动关系进行定量分析。结果表明,江苏省能源消费与GDP之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,并存在从能源消费到经济增长的单向因果关系。为保持江苏省经济持续、快速、健康发展,必须运用各种措施,通过政策的有机组合实现能源消费与经济增长的协调发展。