电梯安全责任分担的多方博弈研究

为明确电梯事故安全责任主体,促使电梯监管跳出"权利有限,责任无限"怪圈。基于博弈思想,根据电梯生产商、使用者和政府主管部门的信誉、经济利益,分析其间的行为策略并据此构建电梯安全责任分担模型,探寻事故安全责任各方的行为策略与事故的因果关系,构建事故责任分担模型;在此基础上,分析政府主管部门、电梯生产商和使用者之间相互约束、相互促进的博弈关系,进一步分析政府主管部门、电梯生产商和使用者间行为策略对电梯安全的影响。结果表明在嵌入责任分担模型以后有利于明确三方之间的安全责任,促使各方注重电梯安全的自我责任,有助于预防电梯事故的发生。     

变电站培训仿真系统仿真策略的研究

变电站培训仿真系统作为培训电力系统运行人员一种有效的工具已得到广泛应用。针对已有变电站培训仿真系统在通用性和扩展性方面存在的不足,通过分析国内外有关资料和工作总结,提出了基于组件技术的变电站培训仿真系统;在事故仿真策略方面进行了新的探索,提出并实现了一次系统模糊分析和二次系统逻辑判断相结合的多线程的事故仿真策略。     

从“五粮液调查门事件”看中国品牌的厚道

"五粮液调查门事件"是我国行业知名企业和知名品牌在发展过程中的普遍性和特殊性的结合体,本文从企业战略和品牌管理的本质出发,具体解读了事件背后的深度原因,以及事件对定位为我国行业领袖品牌的启示。     

企业实施技术标准战略研究

广西南宁市启动重要技术标准研究,实施技术标准战略以来,企业参与标准研制的成果丰硕,品牌兴企成效显著,技术标准体系建设得到有效夯实。为进一步推进企业实施技术标准战略工作,文章针对当前相当一部分企业仍存在对实施技术标准战略重要性认识不足、重视不够、人才相对匮乏、经费投入过少、标准体系不完善等问题,提出了发挥企业实施技术标准战略主体作用的对策。     

汽车事故数据记录装置的应用及标准化展望

汽车事故数据记录装置对于复现事故状况和分析事故成因有重要意义。本文以车载事故数据记录装置结构和工作原理为基础,重点阐述了该装置对事故调查的作用和对交通安全的意义;调研该装置在汽车安全水平较高的欧美地区的应用和研究现状,并通过与其他车载纪录装置的对比,初步明确国家应鼓励发展汽车事故数据记录装置的战略方向;展望了事故数据记录技术在我国的应用前景及标准化路线,并对推进中可能遇到的问题做出了预测和初步应对。     

企业实施技术标准战略研究

广西南宁市启动重要技术标准研究,实施技术标准战略以来,企业参与标准研制的成果丰硕,品牌兴企成效显著,技术标准体系建设得到有效夯实。为进一步推进企业实施技术标准战略工作,文章针对当前相当一部分企业仍存在对实施技术标准战略重要性认识不足、重视不够、人才相对匮乏、经费投入过少、标准体系不完善等问题,提出了发挥企业实施技术标准战略主体作用的对策。     

Contracting under ex post moral hazard and non-commitment

This paper characterizes the optimal insurance contract in an environment where an informed agent can misrepresent the state of the world to a principal who cannot credibly commit to an auditing strategy. Because the principal cannot commit, the optimal strategy of the agent is not to tell the truth all the time. Assuming that there are T > 1 possible losses, and that the agent cannot fake an accident (he is constrained only to misreport the size of the loss when a loss occurs), the optimal contract is such that higher losses are over-compensated while lower losses are on average under-compensated. The amount by which higher losses are over-compensated decreases as the loss increases. The optimal contract may then be represented as a simple combination of a deductible, a lump-sum payment and a coinsurance provision.Received: 29 January 1999, Accepted: 26 June 2001, JEL Classification: D82, G2, C72.I would like to thank my dissertation committee Stanley Baiman, David Cummins, Georges Dionne, Neil Doherty and Sharon Tennyson (supervisor) for their insights, as well as Keith Crocker, Steve Coate, Richard Derrig, Michele Piccone and Pascale Viala. The financial help received during my doctoral studies from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC) and the S. S. Huebner Foundation are gratefully acknowledged. This research has been funded by the Fonds pour la Formation de Chercheurs et d'Aide à la Recherche (FCAR-Québec), SSHRC-Canada and the Risk Management Chair at HEC Montréal. The continuing financial support of CIRANO is also appreciated. I am responsible for all errors.     

基于神经网络的电力电子电路故障诊断研究

电力电子电路模型具有很强的非线性,通常对其进行在线故障诊断比较困难,文章利用神经网络非线性映射特性,由神经网络来学习及存储电力电子电路的故障特征信号和故障类型穴或原因雪之间的映射关系,并将其用于在线诊断,从而达到对电力电子电路进行在线自动故障诊断的目的。     

The accident externality of driving: Evidence from observance of the Jewish Sabbath in Israel

We document and measure an externality of driving, whereby a driver’s decision to take to the road affects fellow drivers risk of accident. Because religious Jews refrain from driving during the Sabbath, traffic on Israeli roads decreases sharply when the Sabbath begins each Friday, at a precisely defined time before sundown, and increases after the Sabbath ends on Saturday evening, at a precisely defined time after sunset. Using plausibly exogenous variation in traffic volume associated with the Sabbath, we estimate the effect of traffic volume on the risk of fatal or injurious accident. We find that a positive accident externality emerges only at the Sabbath exit, when traffic volumes are greater. Remarkably similar results arise when the analysis is confined to non-Jewish drivers, whose travel choices are not bound by the precise timing of the Sabbath, supporting the interpretation that our findings reflect an externality. Finally, the effect emerges mainly on a class of road sections that is considered highly perilous, suggesting that the interaction of traffic volume and road perilousness is important for understanding this issue and shaping implicated policy.     

Health-related economic costs of the Three-Mile Island accident.

On March 1979, a nuclear power station at Three-Mile Island (TMI) near Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, had a major breakdown. During the two-week period of the accident, about 150,000 residents were evacuated for reasons associated with safety and health. Many residents during and after the accident, regardless of whether they left or stayed, made mental and physical adjustments due to this accident. This paper is to estimate the economic costs incurred by individuals or communities as a result of a change in physical or mental health status and/or a change in health care services due to the TMI accident. The findings indicate that stress symptoms caused by the accident did affect the health-related behaviors of area residents. Of the costs examined, the economic costs of work days lost and physician visits are the largest cost items. There were some increases in consumption of alcohol, cigarettes, and tranquilizers immediately following the accident.     

基于管理失误论的顶岗实习风险防范对策

本文结合实际,对高职学生顶岗实习风险的特点和类型进行了探讨,运用现代事故致因理论分析造成顶岗实习风险的原因,提出防范顶岗实习风险的三个对策:技术对策、教育对策和管理对策。     

突发事故时大型企业集团应急物资调配

目前我国的物资调配主要是面对突发事故时采用应急预案系统时进行的.文章基于突发事故,结合调配的相关理论,就电力集团和铁路部门这两大巨头如何进行物资调配的进行了研究.     

Empowering by de-depowering: towards an HR strategy for realizing the power of empowerment

Empowerment is still on the agenda as a management concept. The rhetoric around it is very much in line with good old human relations values, and it put forward as a recipe for coping with increasingly rough waters. This paper argues that these recipes are often of the type 'the solution is the problem'. Rather than expose themselves dubious empowering tools, organizations should seek to identify what 'de-powers' their employees. Genuine empowerment is nourished by an empowering organization. Six, fairly general de-powering tendencies are provided as illustration. It is suggested that empowerment efforts should be directed towards creating better grounds for empowerment. A strategy for doing this could be aimed at de-powering the organization. Guidelines for such a strategy are suggested.     

收集火灾证据做好火灾事故调查工作

火灾发生后,只有查明引起火灾的真实原因,才能依法处理事故责任者和弥补事故损失。而怎样收集证据查明火灾发生的原因是摆在消防工作者面前的一大难题。本文作者结合自己多年的工作经验,对火灾事故调查中证据的收集相关问题进行分析,并就如何对搜集的证据进行验证提出了自己的看法,供同行参考。     

建筑业安全生产机制的系统分析

建筑业是安全事故多发的行业，研究安全生产和事故发生机制，有助于提高安全生产水平。用系统论的观点进行理论研究和数据分析，建筑业安全生产是全过程和多组织集成体系，安全事故是管理缺陷引起的人和物的因素综合作用的结果。安全管理是一个不断改进的正向循环反应系统。     

道路环境对营运出租车与摩托车相撞事故的防范研究

道路原因是造成营运出租车与摩托车相撞的一个重要方面。作为两轮车，摩托车更易受因道路设计、施工、养护和路面情况等道路环境的影响。根据某市的营运出租车与摩托车事故责任认定分析获知，没有对道路环境问题导致事故责任的认定。但这并不能说明该市的道路环境对交通事故无任何影响，只是说明该市交通部门在事故统计中考虑问题的角度不同，所以对于道路的研究也是预防营运出租车与摩托车相撞事故发生的一个重要方面。文中通过某市一路段近年来营运出租车与摩托车发生的交通事故案件，总结和分析研究引起事故的成因，在此基础上研究并构建基于道路环境的营运出租车与摩托车相撞事故的防范体系，由此可有效防范和减少营运出租车与摩托车的相撞事故，降低事故死亡率、减少经济损失，有效遏制重、特大事故。     

可能速度在交通安全评价中的应用

借助可能速度这一能够直观反映道路线形状况的指标,建立基于可能速度突变量的路段交通事故预测模型,预测得到的事故率可以作为安全系数,依照文中初定的评价标准,可评价突变处对应桩号位置的交通安全状况。     

Competition and Conflict in the U.S. Atlantic Coast Menhaden Industry

Abstract . Fluctuations in the harvest of menhaden off the U.S. Atlantic coast, a common property resource, have caused competition and conflict among the small number of companies, two large and several small, which operate in the fishery. With no strong central management, the resource is not being exploited to the optimum and increased fishing pressure and effort bring, cyclically, a peak catch followed by contraction in catch and industry. The industry, state agencies and federal offices disagree on corrective measures. Restriction of the fall harvest off the North Carolina coast to replenish the stock would call for an extraordinary sacrifice by the North Carolina industry—costing it between $4.4 and $6.8 million to provide increases between $6.6 million and $8.4 million in gross revenues for the rest of the industry from Maine to Florida. This raises problems of equitable sharing of the burden. A bioeconomic computer model quantifies short and long run impacts that must be faced.     

火灾事故调查的证据链

在勘察事故形成的过程中,要善于发现形成事故起因的各种证据,掌握事故的本质特征,才能还原事故的事实真相。     

浅谈电力系统继电保护

城市电网配电系统由于其覆盖的地域极其辽阔、运行环境极其复杂以及各种人为因素的影响,电气故障的发生是不能完全避免的。在电力系统中的任何一处发生事故,都有可能对电力系统的运行产生重大影响。为了确保城市电网配电系统的正常运行,必须正确地设置继电保护装置。