通货膨胀实时预测及菲利普斯曲线的适用性

本文从实时分析的视角,基于多种退势方法的产出缺口最终估计、准最终估计和实时估计序列,分别构建了四类预测模型对我国通货膨胀率进行预测,分析了产出缺口修正效应和滞后阶数变化效应对通胀预测的影响,并进一步考察了产出缺口在通胀预测中的作用及菲利普斯曲线在通胀预测中的适用性。研究结论表明,通胀率的实时预测效果要明显比基于最终数据的差,其中滞后阶数变化效应对实时预测精度的影响大于产出缺口修正效应;尤为重要的是,尽管在最终数据的预测分析中,产出缺口的引入能够提高通胀率的预测精度,但是在实时预测中,产出缺口没有提供有价值的信息,因此"产出—通胀"型菲利普斯曲线在我国通胀实时预测中并不适用。     

Estimating potential output and the output gap for the euro area: a model-based production function approach

This paper provides an analysis of multivariate unobserved components models for the estimation of potential output and the output gap in the euro area. Bivariate models of output and inflation and multivariate model-based implementations of the production function approach are considered; according to the latter potential output is derived from the permanent components of the factors of production consistent with stable inflation, whereas the output gap results from the combination of the transitory components. This approach allows to measure the contribution of the various factors of production to potential output growth, and to assess the reliability of the output gap estimates. Various alternative statistical specifications for the separation of trend and cycle are considered entertaining different economic hypotheses. The paper also provides an assessment of the reliability of the alternative output gap estimates and analyses their predictive validity by means of a rolling forecast exercise that provides an evaluation of the capability to forecast future inflation. A preliminary version of this paper appeared as EUI working paper ECO2002/09 and was presented at the European Central Bank, the European University Institute, the Growth and Business Cycles in Theory and Practice conference, Manchester UK, 20–21 June 2002, the Common Features in Rio conference, Rio de Janeiro, 29–31 July 2002. We thank the participants, Michael Artis, Gerard Korteweg, Geoff Kenny, Neale Kennedy, Manuel da Mota Freitas Martins, Gerard Ruenstler, and three anonymous Referees for useful discussions and valuable comments. The paper was largely written while the first author was acting as consultant for the ECB. The views expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB. All correspondence to Alberto Musso.     

The natural rate of interest and the output gap in the euro area: a joint estimation

The notion of a natural real rate of interest, due to Wicksell (Interest and prices. Macmillan, London Translation of 1898 edition, 1936), is widely used in current central bank research. The idea is that there exists a level at which the real interest rate would be compatible with output at its potential level and stationary inflation. Such a concept is of primary concern for monetary policy because it provides a benchmark for the monetary policy stance. This paper applies the method suggested by Laubach and Williams (Rev Econ Stat 85(4):1063–1070, 2003) to jointly estimate the natural real interest rate and the output gap in the euro area using data from 1960 onwards. Our results suggest that the natural real rate of interest has declined gradually over the past 40 years. They also indicate that monetary policy in the euro area was on average stimulative during the 1960s and the 1970s, while it contributed to dampen the output gap and inflation in the 1980s and 1990s. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the institutions to which they are affiliated. We are grateful to Siem Jan Koopman for very helpful suggestions and comments. We also thank P. Cour-Thimann, V. Curdia, F. Drudi, S. McCaw, D. Rodriguez-Palenzuela, R. Pilegaard, H. Pill, L. Stracca, T. Laubach, J. C. Williams and the participants of an ECB workshop on natural interest rates.     

Forecasting UK consumer price inflation using inflation forecasts

The inflation rate is a key economic indicator for which forecasters are constantly seeking to improve the accuracy of predictions, so as to enable better macroeconomic decision making. Presented in this paper is a novel approach which seeks to exploit auxiliary information contained within inflation forecasts for developing a new and improved forecast for inflation by modeling with Multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis (MSSA). Unlike other forecast combination techniques, the key feature of the proposed approach is its use of forecasts, i.e. data into the future, within the modeling process and extracting auxiliary information for generating a new and improved forecast. We consider real data on consumer price inflation in UK, obtained via the Office for National Statistics. A variety of parametric and nonparametric models are then used to generate univariate forecasts of inflation. Thereafter, the best univariate forecast is considered as auxiliary information within the MSSA model alongside historical data for UK consumer price inflation, and a new multivariate forecast is generated. We find compelling evidence which shows the benefits of the proposed approach at generating more accurate medium to long term inflation forecasts for UK in relation to the competing models. Finally, through the discussion, we also consider Google Trends forecasts for inflation within the proposed framework.     

The long-run Phillips curve and non-stationary inflation

Modern theories of inflation incorporate a vertical long-run Phillips curve and are usually estimated using techniques that ignore the non-stationary behaviour of inflation. Consequently, the estimates obtained are imprecise and unable to test the veracity of a vertical long-run Phillips curve. We estimate a Phillips curve model taking into account the non-stationary properties in inflation and identify a small but significant positive relationship between inflation and unemployment. The results also provide some evidence that the trade-off between inflation and the rate of unemployment in the short-run worsens as the mean rate of inflation increases.     

The optimal neglect of inflation: An alternative interpretation of UK monetary policy during the “Great Moderation”

This paper argues that UK monetary policymakers did not respond to the inflation rate during most of the “Great Moderation” that ran from the early 1990s to the mid-2000s. We derive a generalisation of the New Keynesian Phillips curve in which inflation is a non-linear function of the output gap and show that the optimal response of the policy rule to inflation depends on the slope of the Phillips curve; if this is flat, manipulation of aggregate demand through monetary policy does not affect inflation and so policymakers cannot affect inflation. We estimate the monetary policy rules implied by a variety of alternative Phillips curves; our preferred model is based on a Phillips curve that is flat when output is close to equilibrium. We find that policy rates do not respond to inflation when the output gap is small, a situation that characterised most of the “Great Moderation” period.     

Global slack and domestic inflation rates: A structural investigation for G-7 countries

Recent papers have argued that one implication of globalization is that domestic inflation rates may have now become more a function of “global”, rather than domestic, economic conditions, as postulated by closed-economy Phillips curves.This paper aims to assess the empirical importance of global output in determining domestic inflation rates by estimating a structural model for a sample of G-7 economies. The model can capture the potential effects of global output fluctuations on both the aggregate supply and the aggregate demand relations in the economy and it is estimated using full-information Bayesian methods.The empirical results reveal a significant effect of global output on aggregate demand in most countries. Through this channel, global economic conditions can indirectly affect inflation. The results, instead, do not seem to provide evidence in favor of altering domestic Phillips curves to include global slack as an additional driving variable for inflation.     

Measuring the output gap in Switzerland with linear opinion pools

We use the recently proposed linear opinion pool methodology of Garratt et al. (2014) to construct real-time output gap estimates for Switzerland over the out-of-sample period from 2003:Q1 to 2015:Q4. The model space consists of a large number of bivariate VAR specifications for the output gap and inflation, with each VAR specification using a different estimate of the output gap, lag order, and structural break information. We find that the linear opinion pool performs rather poorly. Real-time estimates of the output gap are no more accurate than those from some simple benchmark models, no more robust to ex post revisions than the real-time estimates of the individual univariate output gaps, and do not produce more accurate forecasts of inflation. The key driver of ‘good’ forecast performance is structural break information. Once the same structural break information is conditioned upon in all prediction models, the gain from averaging over many different pools of models that utilize various output gap estimates or lag structures in the VAR specification is of negligible magnitude.     

Alternative indicators for predicting the probability of declining inflation: evidence from the US

The performance of inflation indicators for predicting the probabilityof inflation falling inside constant and moving targets is consideredwith a probit model using US data. Given the Federal ReserveSystem's emphasis on achieving price stability, particular attentionis given to the target that future inflation will be below recentinflation. In contrast with earlier years, the unemploymentand capacity utilisation rates do not perform well in forecastingthe direction of inflation in the mid and late 1990s. We suggestthat extending the Keynesian Phillips curve analysis to considerchanges in labour market conditions, technological advance andworker skills, and openness will increase understanding of theseissues.     

Improved output gaps with financial cycle information? An application to G7 countries’ new Keynesian Phillips curves

In search for more robust cyclical imbalance indicators, recent research has highlighted the interactions between business and financial cycles. Output gap formulations increasingly take imbalances of the financial cycle into account, postulating finance-neutral output gaps (FNGAPs). To test their increased explanatory power in econometric models, we compare FNGAPs to univariate output gaps in their ability to explain inflation dynamics in hybrid new Keynesian Phillips curves. Results indicate FNGAPs to exercise (dis)inflationary pressure, but not to outperform traditional output gaps. Nonetheless, they have become increasingly significant in the course of the 2007/08 Global Financial Crisis.     

Estimates of output gaps in four Southeast Asian countries

The output gaps derived for four countries using a generalized Hamilton model are compared with conventional output gap estimates. Further research is needed to explain why the output gap identifies crisis episodes as slowdowns instead of recessions in some countries.     

System estimates of potential output and the NAIRU

This paper proposes a new approach for estimating potential output and the NAIRU. The methodology models these key unobservable economic variables as latent stochastic trends within a trivariate system of observables comprising information on unemployment, GDP, and inflation. Identification is achieved through the use of a standard version of Okun's law and a Phillips curve. The performance of the procedure is investigated using Swedish quarterly data covering the time period 1970:1–1996:3. First version received: June 1997/final version received: September 1998     

Efficient estimation of macroeconomic equations with unobservable states

Macroeconomic equations, such as the consumption Euler equation, New Keynesian Phillips curve, and Taylor rule, are regularly estimated on an individual basis. However, such relations also jointly determine equilibrium, which may contain unobservable states. This paper shows how to utilize such an equilibrium model to improve the efficiency of individual estimators. In comparison with existing related approaches, this simple framework lends itself naturally to modern medium scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. Not only does the derived estimator exhibit smaller asymptotic variance than equation-by-equation GMM, it also tends to be less prone to small sample distortions from weak identification.     

The Swedish third way: an assessment of the performance and validity of the Rehn-Meidner model

This paper analyses the functioning of the Rehn–Meidnermodel in Sweden and the validity of the model's underlying theory.Both sceptics and friends of ‘the Swedish model’have exaggerated the effects of active labour market policyand solidarity wage policy on employment, inflation and growth.However, these policies have contributed to the reduction ofhysteresis effects and wage differentials in Sweden. Furthermore,Swedish experiences confirm the Rehn–Meidner view thatpositive demand shocks and expansionary macroeconomic policiesmake it difficult to combine full employment with price stability,economic growth and equity even if central wage negotiationsare coordinated and trade unions willingly accept wage restraint.     

Public investment,taxation, and long-run output in economies with multi-level governments

This paper examines the dynamic effects of taxation and investment on the steady state output level of an economy. A simple neoclassical growth model with different tiers of government is developed. The initial focus is on governments that aim to maximise their citizens' welfare and economic performance by providing consumption goods for private consumption and public capital for private production. It is shown that a long-run per capita output maximising tax rate can be derived and that there also exists an optimal degree of fiscal decentralisation. The analysis then extends to the case where governments attempt instead to maximise their own tax revenue to fund expenditures which do not contribute to the utility of their citizens. Three different cases of taxation arrangement are considered: tax competition, tax sharing, and tax coordination. The modeling shows that intensifying tax competition will lead to an increase in the aggregate tax rate as compared to the cases of sharing and coordination amongst governments. These tax rates are both higher than the long-run per capita output maximising rate that was implied under the welfare maximising government scenario.     

The feasibility of low inflation: theory with an application to the argentine case

In this paper we review the Argentine experience of hyperinflation, concentrating on understanding why stabilization took so long, and was only implemented by the most unlikely candidate. To explain these facts we present a voting model in which politicians' actions transmit information about the state of the economy and thus shape voters' behavior. We discuss the implications of the model for countries which are going through the same instability that characterized Argentina in the late 80s.     

Forecasting of electricity costs based on an enhanced gray-based learning model: A case study of renewable energy in Taiwan

This work presents a novel gray-based cost efficiency (GCE) model that integrates the gray forecasting model into a two-factor cost efficiency curve model for renewable energy (RE) technologies and identifies the optimal forecasting model for power generation cost of RE technologies. The analytical framework of proposed GCE model improves short-term prediction of power generation cost, and can be applied during the early developmental stages for RE technologies. Empirical analysis is based on wind power data for Taiwan. Time lag of knowledge stock was simulated to represent the actual relationship between R&D expenditures and cost reductions in power generation by knowledge stock. Analytical results demonstrate the GCE model is a useful tool to quantify the influences of cost reductions in power generation. The implications of analytical results are that institutional policy instruments play an important role in RE technologies achieving cost reductions and market adoption. The proposed GCE model can be applied to all high-technology cases, and particularly to RE technologies. The study concludes by outlining the limitations of the proposed GCE model and directions for further research.     

Amended final-offer arbitration over an uncertain value: A comparison with CA and FOA

Arbitration is increasingly employed to resolve disputes. Two arbitration mechanisms, conventional arbitration (CA) and final-offer arbitration (FOA) are commonly utilized, but previous theoretical and empirical research has found that they are unsatisfactory. Several alternative mechanisms have been proposed, but ultimately laboratory research has found that they do not offer an improvement. An exception is amended final-offer arbitration (AFOA), which not only has desirable theoretical properties but also has been demonstrated to outperform FOA in the laboratory. This study provides a direct laboratory comparison of AFOA with CA. Also, by utilizing an environment with an uncertain payoff to one of the parties, this study tests the robustness of AFOA’s performance relative to FOA. The results indicate that AFOA does outperform FOA, but that AFOA is only weakly better than CA. JEL Classification C7, C9, J5, K4