Strategic trade policy for Eastern Europe

The integration of the former state-trading countries into international free trade may, on the one hand, sensibly complement the reforms now under way towards their becoming market economies; on the other hand, this move harbours the risk of perpetuating and indeed aggravating the economic backwardness of those countries. The detrimental effects can be avoided if a product-cycle-oriented economic policy is pursued which makes a deliberate point of utilizing the relatively rich endowment of human capital available in these countries.     

Country matters: Executives weigh in on the causes and counter measures of counterfeit trade

In this article, we present the findings of a study examining the exploding problem of counterfeit trade via the opinions of U.S. executives as compared to their counterparts from Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, and Tahiti. Their responses provide insight as to how companies in different countries are attacking piracy and consumer complicity with counterfeit products. Per our study, executives in Australia, Tahiti, and the U.S. had similar perspectives: they viewed the seller as the main driver of counterfeit trade for reasons of profit. These executives perceived the demand for counterfeits as being driven by desirable product attributes and the ease of obtaining them. Likewise, they cited two anti-counterfeiting actions—site licenses and reduced price/rebates—as being able to reduce the demand for illicit products. In contrast, South African executives observed the main reason for piracy as weak enforcement of intellectual property (IP) and the lure of exorbitant profits, with little value in any anti-counterfeiting actions other than special packaging. These executives put forth that South African consumers are complicit due to limited education and low disposable income, and the ready availability of counterfeits. Executives from New Zealand were the most optimistic, believing that piracy and complicity can be reduced by many anti-counterfeiting actions, including special packaging, reducing price, emphasizing product benefits/warranties, stressing the harmful effects of using fake products, offering site licenses, and listing of authorized sellers.     

国际技术许可与我国自主创新关系研究

现有研究重视贸易和FDI的技术扩散效应,但国际技术许可作为国际技术扩散的传导机制之一却较少有研究涉及。文章通过Hodric-Prescott滤波处理、除趋势分析和非参数的近邻拟合等方法,分析国外技术授权与我国国内外专利申请受理量、对外技术授权与我国国内外专利申请授权量的关系。研究发现国外技术许可和国内外三种专利申请量存在非线性关系,对外技术许可和专利授权量存在非线性关系,且国际技术许可对国内外专利申请量影响程度不同。     

EMU and Trade Revisited: Long‐Run Evidence Using Gravity Equations

In this paper, we present evidence of the long‐run effect of the euro on trade for the twelve initial EMU countries for the period 1967–2008 from a double perspective. First, we pool all the bilateral combinations of trade flows among the EMU countries in a panel cointegration gravity specification. Second, we estimate a gravity equation for each of the EMU members vis‐à‐vis the other eleven partners. We apply panel cointegration techniques based on factor models that account for cross‐dependence and structural breaks. Whereas the joint gravity equation provides evidence on the aggregate effect of the euro on intra‐European trade, by isolating the individual countries, we assess which of the member countries have obtained a larger benefit from the euro. The results show that the euro has had a positive though small effect on trade. Belgium and Luxembourg, France and Italy are the countries more benefited from the introduction of the euro. The effects for exports to third countries are in general more moderate, and, with the exception of Greece, there is no evidence of diversion effects.     

Effects of the Regional Trading Arrangements on Trade: Evidence from the NAFTA,ANZCER and ASEAN Countries, 1989 – 2000

Using the modified gravity model, this study examines whether the free trade areas of NAFTA, ANZCER and ASEAN would result in trade creation among the member countries and trade diversion with the non-member countries. Further, it applies Linder's income similarity concept to explain the trade patterns in the developed and developing countries within these free trade areas. First, the results suggest that the implementations of the free trade areas have facilitated higher trade among the member countries, particularly the ANZCER and ASEAN countries. However, among all three free trade areas, the formation of the ANZCER free trade area has resulted in trade diversion with non-member countries, whereas that of the ASEAN free trade area has resulted in a trade increase with non-member countries. Surprisingly, the formation of the NAFTA free trade area has no significant effect on trade with non-member countries as their trade flows remain quite low even before its implementation. Second, the result indicates that the trade-enhancing effect of income similarity is confirmed for the developing rather than developed member countries. The developing member countries with similar incomes would trade extensively more with each other. This result can be partly explained by Hanink's income threshold concept, which argues that the income similarity effect is only applicable to developed countries with very small difference in incomes. Given the heterogeneous country sample in this study, the substantial income differences among the developed member countries would probably account for the lack of income similarity effect in these countries.     

Border Effects Within A Dynamic Equilibrium Trade Model

A dynamic general equilibrium model is developed in which border effects are present. It is shown that despite very low trade barriers the presence of national borders can choke off a significant fraction of cross-border trade when firms experience start-up costs in establishing new markets. It is also revealed that country size, as measured by the number of markets in a country, can have a significant effect on how quickly firms grow. Also, it is shown that a decrease in trade barriers will increase the rate at which firms expand into both foreign and domestic markets. Furthermore, an increase in fixed costs at the production level is shown to increase trade flows. This helps explain why developed countries trade more than less developed countries. This article also develops a novel way to solve dynamic optimization problems when “state-space” constraints are present. The solution strategy is applicable to a wide variety of problems in which agents are not constrained now but are expected to be constrained in the future.     

The retail sector in the Nordic countries: A description of the differences, similarities, and uniqueness in the global market

We present an overview of the retail sector in the five Nordic countries: Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden. We apply the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index and the Concentration Ratio to estimate the market concentration in the retail sector in each of those countries. The level of concentration in the retail trade in the Nordic countries is relatively high as compared to other European countries, which is reflected in low customer satisfaction. Furthermore, the Nordic countries have a relatively high proportion of their total population living in the capital area, and we consider how that affects their retail trade.     

中俄贸易浅析

随着俄罗斯经济的复苏和中国经济的高速增长,近年来中俄双边贸易持续升温,但也暴露出许多不完善之处。本文首先对开展中俄贸易的有利条件进行阐述,然后对中俄贸易存在的问题进行分析,最后提出解决问题应采取的对策。     

Foreign exchange rate and trade balance dynamics in East African countries

This study investigates the effects of real exchange rate on trade balance in East African countries. In contrast to past studies that have often focused on one country in the region and adopted traditional empirical methods that are subject to shortcomings, the present study employed the ARDL procedure and investigated the issue in 10 East African countries. The main results are as follows. First, real exchange depreciation significantly improves trade balance for four countries in individual country estimations, as well as in panel estimation. Second, the elasticity of trade balance with respect to real exchange rate is inelastic. Elasticity slightly increases after exchange rate liberalization but remains inelastic. Third, significant short-run fall was not found for trade balance, which suggests lack of evidence for J-curve relationship     

The quality of innovation and the extent of the market

I present a comprehensive model of international trade in technology that considers both the demand for inventions and the supply of inventions. On the demand side, domestic and foreign firms make strategic technology adoption decisions. On the supply side, inventors compete to sell licenses for their technology to domestic and foreign firms. Countries benefit from international trade in technology because they obtain the best invention from a larger pool of inventions. International trade in technology increases the extent of the market for inventions and thereby improves the quality of innovation. Technology trade lowers prices, increases outputs, and increases the volume of trade in differentiated products. When traded products are not close substitutes, international markets for technology generate gains from trade. The results of the analysis are robust to the possibility of technology transfer either through expropriation or imitation. Protection of intellectual property rights preserves incentives for entry of inventors and improves the quality of innovation.     

ARAB-ISRAELI POTENTIAL TRADE: THE ROLE OF INPUT SHARING

In this article we sought to develop a methodology for estimating the level and composition of potential trade between Israel and its Arab neighbors. The need for such a methodology derives from the fact that the existing trade of these countries with the rest of the world constitutes an insufficient basis for predicting bilateral trade patterns between them. Trade based on input sharing can be an important source of ''new trade'' that is, trade that is not necessarily related to goods and services currently traded by the countries in question. New trade based on input sharing pertains to the imports by Arab countries of inputs in which Israel has a proven comparative advantage, and to imports by Israel of inputs produced in Arab countries in which the latter have a proven comparative advantage. It stands to reason that branches characterized by comparative advantage in the exporting country can improve the competitive position of the import ing country, when incorporated in the latter's final products. The analysis confirms that in agricultural produce, food products, and certain sub-branches of the textiles and clothing industry, Jordan, Syria, and Egypt all appear to be potential suppliers to Israel. Inter alia, the results show that the Israeli import potential of inputs from Jordan appears to be both larger and more evenly distributed among the different branches than the import potential from Syria and even from Egypt. This finding does not accord with expectations in view of the fact that Jordan has a smaller population and a lower gross domestic product than either Egypt or Syria. Jordan stands out in that its construction industry, including ceramic products, nonmetallic minerals, and structural metals, are also potential suppliers. The methodology developed in this article specifically concerns potential trade between Israel and its Arab neighbors. It can be usefully employed in other situations where trade between pairs of countries is either nonexistent or severely distorted by political or other factors. Examples which come to mind include trade between countries which in the past belonged to the Soviet bloc, or trade between these countries and the rest of the world. In such cases it is improper to base one's trade predictions on the countries' existing trading patterns. New trade, which can be very substantial, and which may have a very different composition from current trade of the parties concerned, must be added to the equation. The methodology demonstrated in this article can be easily adapted for this purpose.     

Outlook for industrial east-west cooperation

The proportion of the foreign trade exchanges between the industrialized countries of the West and the CMEA states which is attributable to industrial cooperation does not so far exceed an estimated 5–10 p.c.¹ Nevertheless it would be wrong to make light of this cooperation, for it is a manifestation of a new strategy in the competition between the systems and designed to bring about substantial structural changes in their foreign trade². Both these aspects are important for an assessment of future prospects and to be discussed here in some detail.     

Mergers and acquisitions & trade: A global value chain analysis

The present paper deals with how the insertion in international trade and global value chains (GVCs) of countries affects their capacity of attracting foreign mergers and acquisitions (M&As). To this end, we combine data for bilateral M&As and trade in value added for the period 2001–15 and estimate an augmented gravity equation. Results indicate that trade openness per se does not favour M&As. Nevertheless, bilateral free trade agreements, heterogeneity of destinations (sources) for exports (imports) of intermediate and final goods, and position and participation in global value chains are relevant for explaining bilateral M&As. Moreover, their role is significantly different depending on the level of development of the home and host countries.     

从贸易角度探讨我国的贸易摩擦与对策

由于世界经济发展的不平衡及贸易利益分配的不一致,国家之间的贸易摩擦日趋激烈。特别是我国经济的快速增长,使我国与其他国家的贸易摩擦不断蔓延和升级,对我国出口的持续发展带来重大威胁,而且对宏观调控和对外政治外交关系造成严重干扰。本文从贸易角度探讨了目前我国贸易摩擦频发的原因以及应采取的对策,指出我国应实施提高国际竞争力的贸易战略。     

Per capita income,market access costs,and trade volumes

There is strong empirical evidence that countries with lower per capita income tend to have smaller trade volumes even after controlling for aggregate income. Furthermore, poorer countries do not just trade less, but have a lower number of trading partners. In this paper, I construct and estimate a general equilibrium model of trade that captures both these features of the trade data. The key element of the model is an association between trade costs (both variable and fixed) and countries' development levels, which can account for the effect of per capita income on trade volumes and explain many zeros in bilateral trade flows. I find that market access costs play an important role in fitting the model to the data. In a counterfactual analysis, I find that removing the asymmetries in trade costs raises welfare in all countries with an average percentage change equal to 29% and larger gains for smaller and poorer countries. Real income inequality falls by 43%.     

中国对外贸易隐含的碳排放与利益：测算与比较

文章运用环境MRIO模型测算和比较了中国与36个国家（或地区）之间的贸易隐含碳排放余额和增加值贸易余额,全面揭示了贸易所带来的利益与碳排放的关系。主要结论包括：首先,总体来看中国历年贸易隐含碳排放和增加值贸易都为顺差,且呈同步递增趋势,表明中国是碳排放净移入国的同时也是净贸易利益的获得者。其次,中国对26个国家（或地区）的贸易隐含碳排放和增加值贸易呈现双顺差,其中对台湾地区和印尼呈现双逆差,与上述国家（或地区）双边贸易引致的碳排放净流入（或流出）与贸易净利益（或损失）之间呈现互补关系;中国对俄罗斯和印度的增加值贸易顺差而贸易隐含碳排放逆差,使中国获得贸易利益和环境改善的双重收益;对德国等6国的增加值贸易逆差而贸易隐含碳排放顺差,使中国获得贸易损失和环境恶化的双重损失。最后,中国各国（或地区）贸易隐含碳排放余额折算金额后占增加值贸易余额的比重差异较大,总体上中国与发展中国家（或地区）的贸易具有更高的碳排放效率。     

Trade structure and economic growth

Abstract

How do the number of trade partners and the concentration of trade among partners affect the economic growth of a country? We refer to these characteristics as the structure of trade, and explore this question empirically in this study. We find that the structure of trade, independently of the level of trade itself, has an important effect on the rate of economic growth. The results of the study suggest that the number of trading partners is positively correlated with growth across all countries, and this effect is more pronounced for rich countries. Trade concentration is positively correlated with growth for all countries, and the effect is concentrated in poor countries. Previous work has overlooked these characteristics of trade, although we find them to be quite relevant and that they could lead to new ways of understanding the trade – growth relationship.     

Interacting factor endowments and trade costs: A multi-country,multi-good approach to trade theory

We provide a synthetic analysis of the different ways in which countries participate in the world economy. Classic trade questions are reconsidered by generalizing a factor-proportions model to multiple countries, multiple goods or multi-stage production, and country-specific trade costs. Each country's production specialization, trade and welfare is determined by the interaction between its relative endowment and its trade costs. We consider the effects of allowing one good to ‘fragment’ into component and assembly production. The volume of trade and welfare levels are higher with fragmentation for most countries, although for many countries these variables fall with fragmentation.     

Interacting factor endowments and trade costs: A multi-country, multi-good approach to trade theory

We provide a synthetic analysis of the different ways in which countries participate in the world economy. Classic trade questions are reconsidered by generalizing a factor-proportions model to multiple countries, multiple goods or multi-stage production, and country-specific trade costs. Each country's production specialization, trade and welfare is determined by the interaction between its relative endowment and its trade costs. We consider the effects of allowing one good to ‘fragment’ into component and assembly production. The volume of trade and welfare levels are higher with fragmentation for most countries, although for many countries these variables fall with fragmentation.