Fiscal policy,government debt,and economic growth in the Kaleckian model of growth and distribution

This article presents the Kaleckian model of growth and distribution that sets a budget deficit ratio as an indicator of fiscal policy and examines the short- and long-run effects of an increase in budget deficits and a rise in income tax rates on the economy. The key short-run outcomes are as follows. First, expanded budget deficits have a positive effect on the rate of capacity utilization. Second, the tax rate for wage income does not affect the rate of capacity utilization, whereas the tax rate for capital income has a favorable impact on it. This result implies that raising the tax rate for capital income can be an important policy instrument for stimulating the economy. Third, we find that the economy exhibits a wage-led aggregate demand in the short run. The main long-run results are as follows. First, the effect of expanded budget deficits on the growth rate is ambiguous, since a higher debt burden negatively influences the rate of capacity utilization and hence economic growth, despite the increase in demand caused by government borrowing. A higher budget deficit ratio thus raises the growth rate only if a certain condition is satisfied. Second, the tax rate for capital income has a positive impact on the growth rate. Third, the economy shows a wage-led growth in the long run.     

Panel cointegration estimates of the user cost elasticity

The effect of user cost on the capital stock is an issue of central importance in economics, with implications for tax policy, economic development, growth, monetary policy, business cycle models, and other areas. Estimating the user cost elasticity raises serious simultaneity problems because of the large fluctuations in investment demand at business cycle frequencies. If shifts in the supply curve (due to technological change and tax reforms) are more persistent than shifts in demand, cointegration techniques, which emphasize long-run movements, can reduce the simultaneity problem. If shocks to capital demand are partially idiosyncratic, the use of firm-level panel data should also reduce the simultaneity problem. In this paper, we therefore use cointegration techniques to estimate the user cost elasticity on panel data. Specifically, we employ a newly constructed data set with a long time series of firm-level data on the capital stock and with detailed industry-specific data on the interest rate, the price of investment goods, risk, and taxes.     

Education, Work and Wages in the UK

Abstract. This paper is concerned with the relationship between education, wages and working behaviour. The work is partly motivated by the sharp distinction in the literature between the returns to education and the effect of wages on labour supply. Education is the investment that cumulates in the form of human capital while labour supply is the utilization rate of that stock. Yet, variation in education is usually the basis for identifying labour supply models – education is assumed to determine wages but not affect labour supply. Moreover, it is commonly assumed that the private rate of return to education can be found from the schooling coefficient in a log-wage equation. Yet, the costs of education are largely independent of its subsequent utilization but the benefits will be higher the greater the utilization rate. Thus the returns will depend on how intensively that capital is utilized and we would expect that those who intend to work least to also invest least in human capital. Indeed, the net (of tax liabilities and welfare entitlements) return to education will be a complex function of labour supply and budget constraint considerations.
Here we attempt to model the relationship between wages, work, education and the tax/welfare system allowing for the endogeneity of education as well for the correlations between the unobservable components of wages and working behaviour. We use the estimates to simulate the effect of a new UK policy designed to increase education for children from low-income households.     

Capital Maintenance and Investment: Complements or Substitutes?

This paper studies the properties of demand for capital maintenance services and its interaction with investment under variable capital utilization rate and adjustment costs. The depreciation rate varies with the maintenance effort and the utilization rate of capital. We show that the properties of the demand functions for maintenance services and capital goods depend closely on the sign of the cross derivative of the depreciation function, i.e., on whether the marginal efficiency of maintenance decreases or increases when the rate of capital utilization rises. In our model, it is impossible to reconcile some unquestionable empirical facts and some minimal regularity conditions on the demand function for maintenance services if this cross derivative is positive. In all cases, investment and maintenance are gross complements. Received September 9, 2001; revised version received April 22, 2002 Published online: December 5, 2002 ? Springer-Verlag 2002     

Cross-border tax effects on affiliate investment—Evidence from European multinationals

Recent studies suggest that multinational firm activities at home and abroad are positively correlated which may be due to the use of common inputs (like marketing, patents, etc.). Then, a cost shock at one location may lead to reduced activity in all other locations within the firm. In this paper, we theoretically and empirically analyze national corporate tax policy in such a setting. Our main hypothesis is that corporate taxation at the parent location not only reduces the parent's capital stock but also lowers capital stocks at affiliates abroad. Using micro data on European multinational firms, we confirm the hypothesis showing that a 10 percentage point increase in corporate tax rates is associated with a 5.6% decrease in the affiliate's capital stock. From a welfare point of view, this cross-border tax effect on the capital stock gives rise to a negative fiscal externality of corporate taxation which is empirically shown to compensate a substantial fraction of the well-known positive externality due to profit shifting.     

不完全市场、不确定性和中国利息税

通过建立具有利息税的不完全市场一般均衡模型对中国均衡利率和均衡资本进行分析,我们可以看到,利息税使得储蓄更低而利率更高。但是,流动性约束和预防性储蓄等不完全市场因素的存在使得资本供给曲线显著向右移动,导致储蓄增高。因此,当我们评价利息税对经济的影响的时候,必须考虑流动性约束和预防性储蓄的逆向作用。     

Do news shocks increase capital utilization?

Using the workweek of capital as a measure of capital utilization, we empirically test whether news shocks actually increase capital utilization. To this end, by estimating a panel VAR on two-digit manufacturing data identifying news shocks as innovations to stock returns orthogonal to the variations in current-period TFP growth, we find the positive response of capital utilization to news shocks. Moreover, to explain the positive response of capital utilization to news shocks in terms of plant-level investment behavior, we propose a heterogeneous plant model that combines the fixed cost of capital adjustment and an endogenous capital utilization choice. With the presence of fixed costs, except for the plants that have recently adjusted capital stock, news shock shortens the effective time horizon of currently installed capital stock and increases capital utilization. When the model economy is calibrated to match the salient features of the plant-level investment rate distribution, the economy generates a news-driven positive response of capital utilization.     

Import quotas, tied aid, capital accumulation, and welfare

Aid conditional on the purchase of an imported capital good increases the supply of, and demand for, the good. Examining the effects of tied aid on capital accumulation, the current account, and welfare, we find that two resultant conflicting forces render the price of the capital good indeterminate. If the demand pressure is larger than the supply response, the capital stock increases at the expense of the current account and welfare improves. Alternatively, if the demand pressure is less than the supply response, capital is reduced. This may be detrimental to welfare. JEL Classification: F35, F11
Contingentement à l'importation, aide liée, accumulation et bien-être. Une aide conditionnelle accordée pour l'achat d'un bien importé accroît l'offre et la demande de ce bien. En examinant les effets d'une aide liée de ce type sur l'accumulation du capital, le compte courant et le niveau de bien-être, les auteurs montrent que deux forces contradictoires rendent le prix du bien capital indéterminé. Si la pression sur la demande est plus grande que la réponse du côté de l'offfre, le stock de capital s'accroît au détriment du compte courant, et le niveau de bien-être s'accroît. D'autre part, si la pression en provenance de la demande est moindre que la réponse du côté de l'offre, le stock de capital est réduit. Cela peut entraîner une réduction du niveau de bien-être.     

Estate taxes, consumption externalities, and altruism

We study how the introduction of consumption externalities affects the optimality of the dynamic equilibrium in an economy displaying dynastic altruism. When the bequest motive is inoperative consumption externalities affect the intertemporal margin between young and old consumption and thus modify the intertemporal path of aggregate consumption and capital. The optimal tax policy that solves this intertemporal suboptimality consists of a tax on capital income and a pay-as-you-go social security system. The latter solves the excess of capital accumulation due to the inoperativeness of the bequest motive and the former solves the suboptimal allocation of consumption due to consumption externalities. When the bequest motive is operative consumption externalities only cause an intratemporal misallocation of consumption but do not affect the optimality of the capital stock level. This suboptimal allocation of consumption implies in turn that the path of bequest deviates also from optimality. The optimal tax policy in this case consists of an estate tax and a capital income tax.     

Environmental Quality,Public Debt and Economic Development

This article analyzes the consequences on capital accumulation and environmental quality of environmental policies financed by public debt. A public sector of pollution abatement is financed by a tax or by public debt. We show that if the initial capital stock is high enough, the economy monotonically converges to a long-run steady state. On the contrary, when the initial capital stock is low, the economy is relegated to an environmental poverty trap. We also explore the implications of public policies on the trap and on the long-run stable steady state. In particular, we find that government should decrease debt and increase pollution abatement to promote capital accumulation and environmental quality at the stable long-run steady state. Finally, a welfare analysis shows that there exists a level of public debt that allows a long run steady state to be optimal.     

The asset price incidence of capital gains taxes: evidence from the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 and publicly-traded real estate firms

We provide new evidence on the asset price incidence of corporate-level investment subsidies by examining the relative stock price performance of publicly traded companies in the real estate industry that should have been differentially affected by the capital gains tax rate reduction enacted in the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997. By comparing real estate firms that have an organizational structure that allows entities who sell property to it to defer capital gains taxes and that plan to use the structure to acquire property with those that do not, we isolate the effect of the tax cut from industry trends and firm-level heterogeneity. When we examine the time period surrounding the reduction in the capital gains tax rate, our results suggest the tax change was substantially capitalized into lower share prices for these firms and the benefit of the seller’s capital gains tax deferral accrued mainly to the buyer of an appreciated property.     

The incidence of a tax on pure rent in a small open economy

This paper analyzes the effects of a land rent tax on capital formation and foreign investment in a life-cycle small open economy with endogenous labor-leisure choices. The consequences of land taxation critically depend on how the tax proceeds are used by the government. A land tax depresses capital formation, crowds out foreign investment and increases national wealth and consumption when the land tax revenues are distributed as lump-sum payments. If the proceeds from land taxation are used to finance unproductive government expenditure, the land tax will be neutral in its effects on the capital stock, nonhuman wealth and labor. When the tax revenues are used to reduce labor taxes, the land rent tax spurs nonhuman wealth accumulation and ambiguously affects the capital stock and labor.     

Complementarities between firm-sponsored training and information technology use

In this article, we investigate the presence of possible complementarities between investments in information technology (IT) and firm-sponsored training using economy-wide longitudinal representative workplace-level data. Since information on the firm’s capital stock is often missing in such representative data, we match our workplace records to tax data to construct measures of the firm’s capital stock. We find some evidence of positive complementarities between investments in human capital and IT, suggesting that on-the-job training can also have a positive impact on productivity when complemented with investments in CAD or other technologies.     

Capital Trading,Stock Trading,and the Inflation Tax on Equity

A market for used capital goods, or financial instruments that represent the ownership of the used capital goods, induces inflation taxes on wealth and on the nominal income flows that they provide. This paper explicitly introduces trading in either used capital goods or financial instruments into the standard stochastic growth model with money and production. These two monetary economies are equivalent. The value of the firm is equal to the firm's capital stock divided by inflation. The resulting asset-pricing conditions indicate that the effect of inflation on asset returns differs from the effects found in the literature by the addition of a significant wealth tax. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E0, E4, E5.     

A role for preferred stock in the financing decision of a public utility

Summary We have shown that preferred stock has a unique role in the financing of public utility capital expenditures, particulary when returns allowed by regulatory commissions are perceived to be inadequate. From the firm's perspective there is no tax advantage for debt because the commission effectively passes the tax savings through the consumers. If allowed returns on common stock are inadequate and the firm has exhausted its perceived debt capacity, then preferred stock becomes the optimal financing instrument. The regulatory commissions compute the costs of debt and preferred stock so that companies can expect returns to cover payments on debt and preferred stock if the assets being financed are necessary and will be included in the rate base. During extremely bad years when revenues are much less than expected, the companies can delay or miss preferred stock dividends without running the risk of default. The data on new capital sources for the electric and gas utilities indicate that these companies made adjustments which are consistent with the implications of our model, but they did not follow the extreme policy of using only debt and preferred stock when market-to-book ratios for common stock were below one. Regulators have, on occasions, used capital structures for rate-making that differ from actual capital structures, and a utility might be penalized for using an extreme capital structure policy. The main emphasis of regulatory review of capital structure, however, has been on the debt component. One strategy would be to use a debt level that satisfies the regulatory commission and then adjust equity between preferred stock and common stock to maximize value for common stockholders.     

On Cost Benefit Rules for Green Taxes

This paper concerns the welfare effects of a green tax reform in a dynamic general equilibrium model with preexisting taxes on labor income and capital income. In comparison with previous studies on green taxes in dynamic models, which have focused their main attention on long run effects of such reforms, I derive cost benefit rules for a change in the tax mix by using the properties of the value function in optimal control theory. This enables me to relate the welfare effect of a change in the tax mix to responses in employment, the capital stock, (flow) emissions and the stock of pollution along the whole general equilibrium path. Another contribution of the paper is to examine under what conditions an emission tax, which is set permanently below the marginal damage of pollution, is welfare superior to an emission tax path that fully internalizes the external effect.     

The Finnish Corporate Income Tax Reform and the Financial Strategy of Firms: A General Equilibrium Approach

This paper simulates the effects of the recent Finnish corporate tax reform with a computable general equilibrium model. It shows that the impact of the reform on the capital stock depends on the reactions of firms. If the financial strategy is changed to prefer dividend distribution and share issues, the cost of capital falls and the capital stock increases. On the other hand, if the criterion of financial policy is to minimise the welfare loss of current shareholders, the earlier financial behaviour should be continued. In that case,the induced higher cost of capital leads to a lower capital stock. The overall welfare evaluation of the tax reform is not sensitive to the regime shift: the reform should not have been implemented. This is because the increase in interest income taxation distorts saving decisions, expands the net foreign debt of the economy and weakens the terms of trade.     

Environmental Quality,Medical Care Demand and Environmental Tax Interactions

Assuming that improvements in environmental quality lead to lower demand for medical care, it has been shown that general-equilibrium interactions with the tax-distorted labor market reduce the benefits from such improvements, and thus lower the second-best optimal environmental tax. This paper provides some insights on how the link between environmental quality, individual’s health capital, and the demand for medical care affects the analysis of pollution taxes. The paper develops structural conditions under which improvements in environmental quality decrease/increase the demand for medical care and discusses their implications for environmental tax interactions.      

ACCRUED CAPITAL GAINS, PERSONAL INCOME AND SAVING IN THE UNITED STATES, 1948–1964

Capital gains are an important source of personal income in the United States but they are not included in the national accounts or the official estimate of personal income and saving. Individuals report their realized gains for tax purposes but the economic theorist would include both realized and accrued gains in income. National income theorists continue to debate whether capital gains should be included in income but, because of the many conceptual and statistical problems involved in estimating capital gains, no satisfactory estimates have been developed. Consequently, the debate has stayed mainly at the theoretical level. This paper deals with the methodology of estimating accrued capital gains. A simple analytical model is developed to estimate capital gains from data on market value and net acquisitions of an asset but the model can be adapted to incorporate asset prices directly. It is shown that the methods used for estimating accrued gains in the past are special cases of the model proposed in the paper. The model is then used for estimating gains accruing to individuals in the United States on their holdings of corporate stock, real estate and livestock during 1948–1964.
During this period accrued gains have amounted to roughly five times the realized gains reported for tax purposes; corporate stock and real estate are the most important sources of capital gains and corporate stock accounts for almost two-thirds of all accrued gains. The paper goes on to examine the implications of these estimates for the existing series on personal income and saving in the United States. The inclusion of accrued gains would increase the variance in the official estimates but personal saving is affected more than personal income. The paper concludes with an evaluation of these results and some suggestions for further research.