Subjective Performance Indicators and Discretionary Bonus Pools

Key indicators of managerial performance are frequently subjective, that is, they are difficult to specify and/or verify for contracting purposes. When a principal must rely on subjective information to create incentives for a group of agents, discretionary bonus pools are shown to be optimal mechanisms. Despite their optimality, however, discretionary bonus pools entail an additional agency cost relative to the benchmark of optimal contracts based on objective and verifiable information. Our analysis identifies circumstances under which this additional agency cost is small, for example, the subjective information signals are precise, or the number of agents participating in the bonus pool increases. When incentive schemes can be based on both objective and subjective performance indicators, the relative weights to be placed on alternative signals are shown to differ from the ones predicted by models with objective signals only. We also demonstrate that correlation in measurement errors has a different impact on the structure of optimal incentive schemes when the performance indicators are merely subjective.     

The effect of information load on decision makers' cue utilization levels and decision quality in a financial distress decision task

Seventeen practising auditors and sixty-seven accounting students participated in a decision making experiment that examined the effect of increasing amounts of accounting information on cue usage and decision quality. Each participant made financial distress decisions under three levels of information load. Approximately one-third of those participating apparently experienced information overload and exhibited an inverted-U relationship between information usage and information load; the others exhibited patterns of increasing cue usage. The individuals who apparently experienced information overload also reached decisions of lesser quality, as indicated by significantly lower decision making consistency, lesser agreement with a composite judge, and lower consensus.     

Configural Information Processing in Auditing: Further Evidence

An important issue in audit judgment research has been how auditors combine information in order to make judgments and, in particular, whether auditors ‘judgments involve configural cue usage. Some recent research (Brown and Solomon, 1990; 1991) has found that under certain conditions, many auditors were able to configurally process information. This paper extends this research by examining some conditions that may facilitate the development of auditors’ ability to configurally process available information. The study found that: (a) the proportion of auditors processing the information configurally was greater than chance; (b) for those that processed the information configurally, the form of the interaction was as predicted, that is, ordinal with a compensatory form; (c) increasing depth of processing by requiring subjects to provide explanations for their judgments did not have a significant effect on the number of auditors processing configurally; (d) the level of consensus was higher for auditors who processed configurally than for those who did not; and (e) the analysis of the explanations provided by configurai cue processors indicated that they saw the relevant cues as being substitutable.     

Linear versus process tracing approaches to judgment modelling: A new perspective on cue importance

For a bankruptcy prediction problem, the judgment formation process is studied using linear models and process tracing models. The linear models are constructed using traditional linear discriminant analysis techniques. The process tracing models are constructed using computer-generated algorithmically-based decision nets. All the models presented show good predictive accuracy. However, the linear models and process tracing models diverge widely on several measures of cue importance. This divergence, for a fairly straightforward problem, is intriguing since virtually all the evidence in the accounting literature about cue importance is based on linear models research. The importance of different information cues to decision-makers is clearly a critical issue in the design of effective accounting information systems. Thus, this study suggests the need for much more careful attention to the complex question of assessing cue importance.     

The effects of a modest incentive on information overload in an investment analysis task

This paper investigates the effects of performance based monetary incentives on cue usage within the information overload paradigm. Participants suggested appropriate stock prices for hypothetical companies based on either six or nine non-correlated information cues. The presence of monetary incentives motivated increased response times compared to participants who did not receive incentives. This in turn resulted in higher levels of information usage than has been observed in previous studies. The results support the view that information processing capacity imposes a limit on the amount of information processed per unit of time rather than on the amount of information that can be processed in total.     

How do people perceive graphical risk communication? The role of subjective numeracy

This study aims to evaluate directly how a graphical risk ladder is perceived and how this perception is related to people’s subjective numeracy. Gaze durations and frequencies were used to examine visual attention. Participants (N = 47) appeared to focus on the target risk information, whereas referential information was less attended. Subjective numeracy was negatively correlated with total watching time and the absolute number of gaze events. Results suggest that participants with low subjective numeracy have more difficulty in comprehending the graph, and that they process the graphical information less efficiently than the participants with high subjective numeracy. In addition, the position of referential risks on risk ladders could influence people’s risk perception. Based on these findings, we provide some implications for the design of risk communication graphs and for the use of graphs in informing persons with low subjective numeracy about risks.     

Conditional portfolio allocation: Does aggregate market liquidity matter?

This paper investigates how aggregate liquidity influences optimal portfolio allocations across various US characteristic portfolios. We consider short-term allocation problems, with single and multiple risky assets, and use the nonparametric approach of Brandt (1999) to directly express optimal portfolio weights as functions of aggregate liquidity shocks. We find, first, that the effect of aggregate liquidity is positive and decreasing with the investment horizon. Second, at daily and weekly horizons, this effect is weaker on allocations in large stocks and gets stronger as we move toward small stocks, regardless of the other stock characteristics, suggesting that liquidity is the main concern of very short-term investors. Third, conditional allocations in risky assets decrease and exhibit shifts toward more liquid assets as aggregate liquidity worsens. Overall, conditioning on aggregate liquidity yields empirical results that are consistent with the so-called flight-to-safety and flight-to-liquidity episodes. Finally, we propose a simple tactical investment strategy and show how aggregate liquidity information can be exploited to enhance the out-of-sample performance of long-term strategies.     

The role of individual personality type in subjective risk elicitation outcomes

Managing uncertainty is an unavoidable challenge in a variety of decision contexts. On many occasions, objective data are not available, necessitating the use of experts. However, research into procedures to elicit and aggregate information from experts is difficult to validate or test empirically. A controlled economic experiment was used to assess subjective probability elicitation accuracy resulting from three alternative elicitation procedures and two aggregation alternatives. The empirical results provide evidence of the impacts of elicitation techniques, distribution type, and personal characteristics such as risk preferences and personality type on subjective risk assessment accuracy. Our conclusion is that experimental approaches hold promise as a technique to assess the forecast accuracy of aggregated subjective probabilities in a variety of contexts.     

PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION UNDER TRACKING ERROR AND WEIGHTS CONSTRAINTS

The performance of active portfolio managers who must comply with a weights constraint is often assessed against a benchmark. The weights constraint is common as the funds are committed by their own prospectus to a minimum (or maximum) portfolio concentration. We characterize the optimal asset allocation and analyze the implications of the weights constraint on the manager's performance and on the relevance of the information ratio. We obtain that because of the weights constraint, at the optimum, the information ratio often decreases when the manager is free to deviate more from the benchmark.     

烟草物流配送中心绩效评估研究

物流配送中心的绩效评价是烟草公司业务改善提高的重要依据,根据国家烟草局卷烟配送中心绩效评价准则,建立了绩效评价指标体系。基于熵权法和序关系法确定各指标主客观组合权重,结合使用标杆管理法和三角模糊数法确定各指标的隶属度,采用模糊综合评价对烟草配送中心绩效进行评价。     

PRIVATE INFORMATION ACQUISITION IN EXPERIMENTAL MARKETS PRONE TO BUBBLE AND CRASH

This paper reports the results of twelve experimental markets designed to investigate whether a costly private information system decreases the propensity of price bubbles to form. A private information system is hypothesized to decrease traders' subjective uncertainty about the behavior of other traders by reinforcing common expectations for all traders. Results show that private information does not eliminate price bubbles, but asset prices converge toward the rational expectations predictions with trader experience. The price of private information is related to the expected gains derived from asset trading.     

Functional fixation revisited: the effects of feedback and a repeated measures design on information processing changes in response to an accounting change

This study uses a product pricing laboratory experiment to evaluate the presence of functional fixation and extends prior research, particularly the work of Bloom et al. (1984) and Murray (1991) [Bloom, R., Elgers, P. T., & Murray, D. (1984). Functional fixation in product pricing: A comparison of individuals and groups. Accounting, Organizations and Society, 9(1), 1–11; Murray, D. (1991). Data fixation: Methodological refinements and additional empirical evidence. Behavioral Research in Accounting, 3, 25–38] by incorporating a repeated measures design and a feedback variable. Functional fixation was assessed by the degree of information processing changes in response to an accounting change. The accounting change, in the form of a change in depreciation method (straight line to accelerated or accelerated to straight line, respectively), was varied by the period in which the change occurred and by whether judgment policy feedback was provided. Ten experimental conditions were utilized in the study: two control conditions with no accounting change, four second-period accounting change conditions (two with feedback and two without), and four third-period accounting change conditions (two with feedback and two without). A total of 190 subjects participated in the study and made product pricing decisions for three sets of thirty products each, each constituting a separate period. In four of the 10 conditions, subjects received feedback during the second and third period in the form of cue weights and estimated prices based on the preceding task. Overall, results indicate that functional fixation is present, and that the period of the accounting change and feedback do not significantly influence it. However, feedback was differentially effective depending on the period in which the accounting change occurred, such that although it did not reduce fixation, it resulted in pricing differences obtaining from a revised consideration of the variables underlying the pricing decision model. The results of a second experiment with a larger number of periods were basically similar in demonstrating fixation effects. The results are discussed in terms of their implications for functional fixation as well as directions for future research.     

Causal reasoning in performance assessment: Effects of cause and effect temporal order and covariation

The role of information in the process of diagnostic inference required for the evaluation of operational performance was investigated. Assuming the role of a manufacturing division manager, subjects were asked to estimate the likelihoods of four potential causes of a department's weekly labor efficiency variance. Given requested items of evidence, subjects were asked to re-estimate the causal likelihoods. The results generally confirmed a set of hypotheses predicting the effects of cause/effect temporal orders and cause/effect covariations, supporting the notions that temporal order and covariation are cues-to-causality used by individuals when inferring causality and that temporal order is a noncompensatory cue. Additional evidence is presented that supports the notion that although individuals prefer evidence concerned with confirming the cause/effect relation to evidence concerned with disconfirming the relation, preference for evidence concerned with disconfirming the relation increases as additional items of evidence are sought.     

Intrinsic objective Bayesian estimation of the mean of the Tweedie family

ABSTRACT

The Tweedie family, which is classified by the choice of power unit variance function, includes heavy tailed distributions, and as such could be of significant relevance to actuarial science. The class includes the Normal, Poisson, Gamma, Inverse Gaussian, Stable and Compound Poisson distributions. In this study, we explore the intrinsic objective Bayesian point estimator for the mean value of the Tweedie family based on the intrinsic discrepancy loss function – which is an inherent loss function arising only from the underlying distribution or model, without any subjective considerations – and the Jeffreys prior distribution, which is designed to express absence of information about the quantity of interest. We compare the proposed point estimator with the Bayes estimator, which is the posterior mean based on quadratic loss function and the Jeffreys prior distribution. We carry a numerical study to illustrate the methodology in the context of the Inverse Gaussian model, which is fully unexplored in this novel context, and which is useful to insurance contracts.     

THE ECONOMIC SIGNIFICANCE OF CONDITIONING INFORMATION ON PORTFOLIO EFFICIENCY IN THE PRESENCE OF COSTLY SHORT‐SELLING

The economic significance of conditioning information in the presence of costly short‐selling is investigated. Using a compact testing framework, results demonstrate that fixed‐weight stock‐bond portfolios appear inefficient with respect to stock‐bond portfolios with weights determined by extant predictors. However, this result is highly dependent on ex ante knowledge of the predictor set and the ability to short‐sell at low cost. In the absence of such conditions, fixed‐weight stock‐bond portfolios appear efficient with respect to conditioning information.     

主观规范、认知态度对养老服务消费意愿的影响——基于社会嵌入理论

基于社会嵌入理论，依据实地调研数据，采用偏最小二乘结构方程模型，考量主观规范、认知态度对养老服务消费意愿的影响。结果显示：老年人感受到的主观规范越强，其养老服务消费意愿越强，尤其在弱关系场景。主观知识在网络密度与养老服务消费意愿关系中起中介作用，46.99%的网络密度影响通过信息增益实现。异质性检验结果显示：网络密度对60岁以上老年群体的积极影响增强，而网络位置影响转为消极；主观知识对城市地区、高收入、高教育水平老年群体的积极影响更显著，低收入老年消费者群体养老服务消费决策更依赖于社会网络带来的资源改善。鉴于此，可培养老年社群宣传代理人，强化社会规范影响；结合多层次媒体嵌入，营造养老服务消费氛围；实施城乡差异化养老服务推广策略，提升养老服务消费意愿。     

Assessing the performance of alternative investments using non-parametric efficiency measurement approaches: Is it convincing?

DEA-based performance assessment in the alternative investment fund industry is often motivated by the fact that DEA is capable of simultaneously handling multiple input (risk) and multiple output (return) measures, thereby still offering a single real number as a performance index without utilizing subjective weights to aggregate these inputs and outputs. This paper aims at investigating whether DEA-based performance indexes previously used to assess alternative investment fund performance are actually able to satisfy these properties, and to contrast the findings using a DEA-based performance index with those using a traditional financial performance index.     

Non‐Monotonicity of the Tversky‐Kahneman Probability‐Weighting Function: A Cautionary Note

Cumulative Prospect Theory has gained a great deal of support as an alternative to Expected Utility Theory as it accounts for a number of anomalies in the observed behavior of economic agents. Expected Utility Theory uses a utility function and subjective or objective probabilities to compare risky prospects. Cumulative Prospect Theory alters both of these aspects. The concave utility function is replaced by a loss‐averse utility function and probabilities are replaced by decision weights. The latter are determined with a weighting function applied to the cumulative probability of the outcomes. Several different probability weighting functions have been suggested. The two most popular are the original proposal of Tversky and Kahneman and the compound‐invariant form proposed by Prelec. This note shows that the Tversky‐Kahneman probability weighting function is not increasing for all parameter values and therefore can assign negative decision weights to some outcomes. This in turn implies that Cumulative Prospect Theory could make choices not consistent with first‐order stochastic dominance.     

Subjectivity in fair-value estimates,audit quality,and informativeness of other comprehensive income

This study empirically examines whether difference in audit quality is reflected in the pricing of other comprehensive income (OCI). Specifically, we first investigate whether OCI measures of Big 4 clients are more value-relevant than those of non-Big 4 clients. Considering different degrees of subjective management judgment involved in the OCI reporting process, we then explore whether the differential valuation effect of OCI between Big 4 and non-Big 4 clients is more pronounced for more subjective OCI components (e.g., minimum pension liability and foreign currency-translation adjustment) than a less subjective component (e.g., marketable securities adjustment). We predict that the aggregate OCI of a Big 4 client is more value-relevant than that of a non-Big 4 client. We also hypothesize that the differential valuation effect between Big 4 and non-Big 4 clients can be attributed to the amount of subjective assumption and judgment required in estimating OCI. Consistent with our predictions, we find that aggregate OCI audited by a Big 4 auditor has incremental information content over earnings, compared to OCI audited by a non-Big 4 auditor. More interestingly, our results also show that the differential valuation effect between Big 4 and non-Big 4 clients is stronger for OCI components of a more subjective nature. Our results are robust even after controlling for self-selection bias, the potential effect of the financial crisis, and other related effects.     

Fuzzy Financial Pricing of Property-Liability Insurance

Abstract

This paper uses fuzzy set theory (FST) to solve a problem in actuarial science, the financial pricing of property-liability insurance contracts. The fundamental concept of FST is the alternative formalization of membership in a set to include the degree or strength of membership. FST provides consistent mathematical rules for incorporating vague, subjective, or judgmental information into complex decision processes. It is potentially important in insurance pricing because much of the information about cash flows, future economic conditions, risk premiums, and other factors affecting the pricing decision is subjective and thus difficult to quantify by using conventional methods. To illustrate the use of FST, we “fuzzify” a well-known insurance financial pricing model, provide numerical examples of fuzzy pricing, and propose rules for project decision-making using FST. The results indicate that FST can lead to significantly different decisions than the conventional approach.