货币政策由紧转松

在世界金融危机日趋严峻、我国经济遭受冲击日益显现的背景下,11月5日召开的国务院常务会议提出,将实行积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策,并在今后两年多时间内安排4万亿元资金强力启动内需,促进经济稳定增长。这是我国十多年来货币政策首次由紧转松。     

怎样看待货币政策的“松”与“紧”

人们往往习惯于从银行贷款的增减去看待贷币政策的松紧，其实判断贷币政策的松紧并非这样简单，它需要理清思路，划清界限，纳入其他因素。     

告别感言

<正>今天召开了中国金融会计学会第六次会员代表大会,我想借这个机会,和大家说几句告别的话。今天对于我来说,也是一个告别的日子。而尤为巧合的是,11年前的今天,是我卸任行政职务后的在我的一生中,有过多次的告别。告别童年,告别少年,告别青年......;告别小学,告别中学,告别大学......;告别当知青时的石河村,告别工作过七年多的碳素厂,告别生活了三十多年的故乡......;告别办公厅,告别条法司,告别政研室,告别会计司,告别外汇管理局。这些,诚如米兰·昆德拉说的那样：“这是一个流行离开的世界,但是我们不擅于告别。”我知道告别时的伤感,但这也是人生的一个必然体验。     

告别卷首语

本刊在2001年9月改版时,应当时责任总编的要求,我开始为《中国投资》杂志写卷首语,时光荏苒,转眼已经10年了。由于我已于今年6月在国家发改委投资研究所退休,决定从9月份开始不再担任本杂志的总编,该项工作由投资研究所新任所长张长春接任,同时也由他承担起下一期及以后卷首语的撰写任务。     

告别农民工

他们，与改革开放30年大国崛起的血脉紧密相连；他们．与人民共和国大好河山的建设休戚相关；他们的名字，叫农民工。     

告别曼德拉

2013年12月6日,南非前总统曼德以95岁高龄辞世。4天后,官方追悼会在约翰内斯堡的FNB体育场举行,曼德拉的亲友、近百位国家元首、皇室成员、各界宗教领袖以及全球各地成千上万的民众纷纷前来致意,追思这位和平使者。曼德拉破除种族隔离政策,将平等自由带给南非民众,在悼念会现场,8万南非人载歌载舞,延续着这份正能量。虽然这颗伟大的心脏停止了跳动,但“曼德拉式的精神”却深种南非人民心间,并超越时空影响整个世界。     

告别CIH

也许是 CIH 上一次发作的后果太惨痛了,还差一个星期,各大报章上就布满了警告之辞,而众杀毒软件的广告亦大出风头。实际情况怎样呢?据记者了解,由于准备充分,此次 CIH 病毒并没有大规模暴发。1999年5月26日上午,来自公安系统计算机监测办公室的消息说,尚未接到病毒发作的     

货币政策透明度对货币政策有效性的影响

提高货币政策的透明度正在演变成为一个国际趋势,本文从货币政策的目标和决策过程透明度两个方面,从理论和实践两个角度来分析货币政策透明度对货币政策有效性的影响。     

Unconditionally optimal monetary policy

We develop a simple and intuitive approach for analytically deriving unconditionally optimal (UO) policies, a topic of enduring interest in optimal monetary policy analysis. The approach can be employed in both general linear-quadratic problems and in the underlying non-linear environments. A detailed example is provided using a canonical New Keynesian framework.     

Optimal sustainable monetary policy

In recent monetary policy literature, optimal commitment policy and its variant from a timeless perspective have been studied with emphasis on welfare gains from policy commitment. These policies, however, involve a time-consistency problem called a stabilization bias in forward-looking models. We analyze Chari and Kehoe's [1990. Sustainable plans. Journal of Political Economy 98, 783-802] sustainable equilibrium and examine optimal sustainable policy, i.e. a policymaker's strategy in the best sustainable equilibrium. This paper shows that such a policy becomes consistent with the optimal commitment policy in sufficiently later periods. It also shows that whether the optimal sustainable policy can attain the Ramsey equilibrium outcome depends on the magnitude of shocks hitting the model economy. Moreover, the paper finds a sustainable policy that attains higher social welfare than discretionary policy does.     

Rethinking monetary policy after the crisis

This lecture examines how the recent global financial crisis changes our thinking about how monetary policy should be conducted. It starts with a discussion of the science and practice of monetary policy before the crisis and then uses the lessons from the crisis to argue how the practice of monetary policy should be rethought along six dimensions: flexible inflation targeting, response to asset price bubbles, dichotomy between monetary policy and financial stability policy, risk management and gradualism, fiscal dominance, and forward guidance.     

Financial globalization and monetary policy

Recent data show substantial increases in the size of gross external asset and liability positions. The implications of these developments for optimal conduct of monetary policy are analyzed in a standard open economy model which is augmented to allow for endogenous portfolio choice. The model shows that monetary policy takes on new importance due to its impact on nominal asset returns. Nevertheless, the case for price stability as an optimal monetary rule remains. In fact, it is reinforced. Even without nominal price rigidities, price stability is optimal because it enhances the risk sharing properties of nominal bonds.     

货币政策加力从紧的理由

在国人眼里，地震带来的是无法弥补的损失和创伤；在央行眼里，地震带来的是什么？这是一个有关“是什么”的实证问题，撇开个人的感情色彩和价值判断来看，对货币政策应该是一个怎样结论？     

对当前货币政策的一些思考

在当前世界生产分工呈现新格局,我国贸易巨额顺差格局没有发生重大变化,以及我国汇率政策将继续坚持渐变战略的情况下,货币调控问题越来越突出,这将是目前及以后一个较长时期内宏观调控诸问题中的主要难点.在今后一个可预期的时期内,通常意义上的紧缩政策应该是央行货币政策的主要倾向,但"此紧缩"不完全等同于"彼紧缩".过去采取紧缩手段的惟一目的,是针对过热的实体经济,而目前采取的紧缩手段,尽管也有针对实体经济偏热进行预防的目的,但更多则是针对实体经济增长合理对应的货币需求之外,外贸和外汇储备双过高增长引发的过多供应货币进行对冲.     

Dissent in monetary policy decisions

Voting records indicate that dissents in monetary policy committees are frequent and predictability regressions show that they help forecast future policy decisions. This paper develops a model of consensual collective decision-making and dissent, and estimates it using individual voting data from the Bank of England and the Riksbank. Regressions based on artificial data simulated from the model show that decision-making frictions help account for the predictive power of current dissents.     

Bank behavior and monetary policy

As a rule, economists have studied the interaction between bank behavior and monetary policy in the case of a ‘monetary base’ target. In many countries (among which France), this is not an adequate analysis of monetary policy: rather, the Central Bank pegs the interest rate at a desired level and supplies whatever amount of central money is needed at this rate. This paper presents a model where both the usual and the ‘French’ case can be analysed; both short- and long-run implications of monetary policy are considered in a partial equilibrium framework.