我国经济增长与大气污染物排放的关系——基于分省面板数据的经验研究

本文应用1998-2004年期间我国30个省(市、自治区)的面板数据,通过综合简化型模型,研究了3种大气污染物和经济增长之间的关系.实证研究发现在3种大气污染物与经济增长之间不存在倒U型环境库兹涅茨曲线.二氧化硫排放与经济增长之间呈倒N型曲线,与多数研究结果不相符;同时,第二产业比重、经济增长速度、单位GDP能耗和环境政策强度四个解释变量总体上对3个大气污染物的排放具有显著影响,并包含明确的政策含义.     

日本治理大气污染的主要做法及其启示

通过分析、阐述日本治理人为大气污染源的具体做法和措施,以及介绍日本大气质量监测管理体系和信息发布睛况,可以了解到：日本政府坚持污染治理原则,严格执法,加强技术开发,推动全社会共同参与,实现了污染治理和经济增长的同步发展。日本治理大气污染的成功经验,值得借鉴和吸收。     

Factors Behind the Environmental Kuznets Curve. A Decomposition of the Changes in Air Pollution

The environmental Kuznets curve theory suggeststhat economic growth in the long run may reduceenvironmental problems. In this article, we usea decomposition analysis to isolate eightdifferent factors, in order to investigate theorigins of changes in emissions to air over theperiod from 1980 to 1996. Among these factorsare economic growth, changes in the relativesize of production sectors and changes in theuse of energy. Given constant emissions perproduced unit, economic growth alone would havecontributed to a significant increase in theemissions. This potential degradation of theenvironment has been counteracted by first ofall more efficient use of energy and abatementtechnologies. In addition, the substitution ofcleaner for polluting energy types and othertechnological progressions and politicalactions have reduced the growth in emissions.Consequently, the growth in all emissions hasbeen significantly lower than economic growth,and negative for some pollutants.The results indicate that policymakers mayreduce emissions considerably through creatingincentives for lower energy use andsubstitutions of environmental friendly forenvironmental damaging energy types, inaddition to support environmental friendlyresearch or to conduct direct emission reducingactions, such as abatement requirements orbanning of environmental damaging products.This is particularly relevant to countries andsectors with relatively high energy intensitiesand low pollution abatement.     

Implementing QALYs in the Analysis of Air Pollution Regulations

In recent years, there has been growing interest in cost-effectiveness analysis for environmental regulations using quality-adjusted life years as the measure of effectiveness. This paper explores the implications of the QALY approach for measuring the impacts of air pollution regulations, with an example using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Heavy Duty Engine/Diesel Fuel regulations. The paper also examines the issues surrounding the potential use of QALY measures in cost-benefit analysis for air pollution regulations. Key findings are that, compared with a cost-benefit approach, the QALY framework gives more weight to reductions in incidence of chronic disease relative to reductions in premature mortality risk, especially when the mortality risk reductions occur in older populations. In addition, use of monetized QALYs in cost-benefit analysis is not recommended, due to fundamental differences in the theoretical grounding of the different measures. However, application of monetized QALYs based on age-specific willingness to pay (WTP) for mortality risk reductions gives very similar results to typical cost-benefit analysis for mortality risk reductions, as opposed to using values for QALYs based on non-age specific WTP. The paper concludes that in cases where mortality provide the majority of a regulation’s impacts, QALY based cost-effectiveness analysis and WTP based cost-benefit analysis may not differ in their conclusions. However, in cases where morbidity or non-health outcomes are significant, cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit analysis may result in different evaulations of the efficiency of the regulation.     

我国空气污染的区域发展趋势分析

工业化产生的环境污染,已经严重危及人们生活质量的提高。研究采用相关性分析和R/S分形方法,使用全国和东、中、西部地区1995-2011年期间的序列数据。首先,以能源消费总量为控制变量,对工业废水排放量、工业废气排放量、工业固体废物排放量与国内生产总值之间进行相关性分析,找出环境污染的主要成分是工业废气排放。然后,着重分析全国和东、中、西部地区工业废气排放量的R/S分形轨迹。实证结果表明:它们的Hurst指数均介于0和5之间,说明其工业废气排放量的未来变化呈负相关性,但它们的分维值却不同,全国和中部地区距1.5较近,说明两者的反持续性较东、西部地区弱,今后中部地区所面临的环境压力将增大,应成为重点监控对象。     

财政分权与空气污染——以“省直管县”改革为例的研究

基于财政"省直管县"改革,实证分析了财政分权对空气污染(雾霾)的影响,双重差分模型(DID模型)估计发现,财政分权恶化了空气质量;其次,异质性分析证明,财政分权对空气污染的作用在中西部地区、能源消耗较少省(市、区)和非百强县子样本中更显著;此外,机制分析证实,财政分权通过改变地方财政支出结构和加剧地方政府竞争两个方面作用于空气污染;最后,将财政分权与行政分权比较分析发现,行政分权显著降低了空气污染水平.本文的研究为从环境视角评价行政体制改革提供了思路.     

农村劳动力转移影响因素分析:29个省市的经验数据

在分析和评价传统理论和已有文献的基础上,突破单一的城乡收入差距影响农村劳动力转移的传统思维,构建出农村劳动力转移不仅受迁移地非农收入的实际效用因素的影响,受迁移成本变动因素影响的理论模型。根据全国29个省市1995-2006年的面板数据,经过单位根检验和协整关系检验,利用回归模型,估计分析了非农收入的实际效用因素和非农收入成本因素对农村劳动力转移的影响度。城乡收入差距、非农产业生产总值比率与农村劳动力转移呈正相关,城乡消费支出比率、城镇失业率分别作为农村劳动力转移的直接价格成本和就业风险成本与农村劳动力转移呈负相关关系。要进一步促进我国农村劳动力向城镇的合理转移,必须从两个方面着手:一是提高非农收入的实际效用,二是降低非农收入的成本率。     

中国工业化、城镇化对能源强度的影响——基于动态面板数据模型的研究

以中国30个省市自治区作为横截面单元,将全国分为三个部分,利用各横截面单元2000~2011年组成的面板数据,建立动态面板数据模型分析工业化、城镇化对能源强度的影响。结果表明:城镇化水平对我国不同地区的影响有显著差异,在东部地区,提高城镇化水平能有效降低能源强度,而就全国范围和中西部地区而言,城镇化水平的提高阻碍了能源强度的降低;工业化水平的提高推动了能源强度的上升。根据得出的结论,文章还对降低能源强度提出了相应的建议。     

新疆环境污染的实物量核算评价分析

通过定量分析的方法,研究新疆经济与环境状况及其发展的可持续性,试图得到新疆2006年的水污染、大气污染、固体废物污染的实物量损失,从而算出新疆2006年经济增长的环境代价。通过研究,为新疆经济与环境发展的可持续性评估提供理论参考。     

新疆环境污染影响因素分析

本文的研究目的在于分析新疆环境污染状况,寻找影响新疆环境污染的主要因素.首先对新疆环境污染状况进行综合评价,然后在此基础上建立回归模型分析影响环境质量的各种因素,研究结果表明,城市化进程、工业结构、环保科技和对外贸易对新疆的环境污染有着显著的影响.其中,对外贸易对环境污染的影响最为明显.     

Health Damage of Air Pollution: An Estimate of a Dose–Response Relationship for the Netherlands

This paper estimates the dose-response relationship between air pollution and the number of work loss days for the Netherlands. The study is based on illness data (work loss days) for the Dutch labour population and average year concentrations of air pollution in 29 districts. The dose-response relationship has been estimated by means of two different techniques: the ordinary least squares method (OLS) and the one-way fixed-effects method (OWFEM), which we consider to be more adequate. In general health effects are much smaller when OWFEM is applied than if OLS is used. With OWFEM a significant relationship is found between sulphate aerosol (SO₄), ammonia (NH₃) and the number of work loss days (WLDs). Particulates (TSP), O₃ and SO₂ have no significant effect on the number of WLDs. These results differ from those obtained in studies in the United States, which indicate that particulates (TSP) and other small particles, ozone (O₃) and to a lesser extent SO₄ and SO₂ significantly influence the number of WLDs.     

论我国大气污染生态补偿法律机制的完善

大气污染生态补偿法律机制对于促进区域大气污染联合治理、实现大气污染治理法律正义、创新与完善生态补偿法律机制等具有重要意义。我国现有法律法规就大气污染生态补偿进行了原则性规定,特别是山东、陕西、湖北等地方性法规更是对大气污染生态补偿进行了探索性规范,为大气污染生态补偿法律机制完善提供了有益经验。但从总体来看,我国大气污染生态补偿法律机制尚存在缺乏专门法律支撑、生态补偿主体过窄、补偿方式单一、补偿标准不合理、法律责任不完善等问题。为促进生态文明战略与强化大气污染生态补偿的法律保障,我国应以科学理念为指导,采取有效措施推进大气污染生态补偿法律机制完善。     

Benefit Transfer: A Comparison of WTP for Air Quality between France and Germany

A contingent valuation study was carried out under similar conditions on two sites simultaneously: Strasbourg (France) and Kehl (Germany) in order to test the reliability of the benefit transfer method. On average, the air quality is approximately the same in the two cities. Using a transfer of the benefit function, we compared the direct estimated benefits from improved air quality with the transferred benefits in the same city. The originality of this test is that the valued good is the same in both cities, which means that the transfer is an intra-site transfer. However our findings show that the method of benefit transfer was not generally valid. Indeed inhabitants of Kehl declared a higher price for their state of health and air quality than inhabitants in Strasbourg. This result could be explained by a stronger sensitivity to environmental problems in Germany.     

政府水污染防治对重点流域企业投资的影响——基于PSM-DID方法的实证分析

基于2010—2017年间我国中部六省上市公司固定资产投资数据,运用双重差分方法检验了《重点流域水污染防治项目管理暂行办法》对相关企业投资的影响,研究发现:该《办法》实施后对中部六省重污染行业的固定资产投资具有显著的抑制效应,且表现出较好的持续性;通过对中部六省三大产业进行横向对比分析发现,其对固定资产投资的抑制作用仅在包含重污染企业的第二产业内显著存在,而对第一产业内企业投资的抑制作用存在明显的滞后现象,同时对第三产业内的企业投资不存在显著影响;结合倾向得分匹配法以及排除预期效应和测量误差后,其对重污染企业投资抑制作用的直接效应和持续效应依旧存在,说明研究结论是稳健的。     

Rapid industrialization and market for energy and minerals: China in the East Asian context

The mainland of China’s rapid pace of industrialization and trade expansion have led many to ask whether its ever-increasing demand for resources can be met without disruption to economic stability and growth in the country and the world as a whole. The article examines the experience of growth in resource demand and the associated pressure on global markets from Japan, Taiwan Province of China and Korea during their periods of sustained, rapid economic growth for periods in the second half of the twentieth century. It seeks to draw lessons for the twenty-first century. The article points out that because of its size the mainland of China may cause the resources boom, associated with the later decades of its period of sustained rapid growth, to raise the prices of resource-intensive products by a large amount, not for a few years, but for several decades. This will have important implications for economic development and the distribution of incomes within and between all countries, and on power relations between states in the Asia-Pacific and throughout the global community.     

环境污染对中国劳动供给的影响——基于面板误差修正模型的研究

基于局部均衡模型,探讨了中国环境污染影响劳动供给的具体机制。采用ARDL方法构建面板误差修正模型,并利用1991—2010年中国的省级面板数据进行实证研究。研究结果表明:在短期内,环境污染会显著降低劳动供给水平;从长期来看,随着环境污染程度的加剧,劳动供给水平会先升后降;劳动者收入水平的提高会加大环境污染对劳动供给的负效应。     

Valuation of Urban Air Pollution: A Case Study of Kanpur City in India

This study estimates the monetary benefits to individuals from health damages avoided if air pollution is reduced in the urban industrial city of Kanpur in India. A notable feature of this study is that it uses data from weekly health-diaries collected for three seasons. For measuring monetary benefits, the study considers two major components of health cost that is incurred due to adverse effects of air pollution on health i.e., the loss in wages due to workdays lost from work and the expenditure incurred on mitigating activities. The study estimates that a representative working individual from Kanpur would gain Rs. 165.47 per year if air pollution were reduced to a safe level. The extrapolated annual benefits for the entire population in the city are Rs. 224.55 million.     

基于城市空间规划设计视角的颗粒物空气污染控制策略研究综述

颗粒物空气污染是世界各国在快速城镇化过程中共同面临的严峻挑战。借助CNKI和Web of science,通过文献查阅整理城市空间在颗粒物污染方面的研究,系统性地总结该研究领域的整体特征与调节颗粒物污染的城市空间规划设计策略。结果显示：1)该研究属于一个新兴而前沿的学术领域,近年来呈持续上升趋势,相关文献主要来自中国、美国、英国与德国;2)绿色空间通过城市尺度的风道网络、绿地系统规划,街区尺度的公园绿地、湖泊湿地、道路绿带、城市森林对颗粒物污染产生消减作用;3)灰色空间通过城市尺度的城市形态优化、土地利用布局、街区尺度的街谷空间改造降低颗粒物污染;4)遥感反演与数值模拟技术(WRF、CFD)为规划设计策略提供技术支撑。最后对已有研究成果进行总结,并提出研究展望。     

工业适度重型化背景下的低碳路径选择：基于广东工业的实证分析

对工业适度重型化背景下的高碳发展惯性特征进行分析和预测,并以广东为重点,利用对数平均权重分解法（ LMDI）研究工业能源消费历史碳排放的驱动因素。结果表明,广东工业重型化和高碳化在未来一段时期仍将处于惯性高位区间,工业碳排放峰值预计出现在2025年左右;由技术进步诱发的能源效率提升是过去十多年来碳排放增长减缓的主要影响因素,而产业结构和能源结构调整尚未发挥足够的降碳效应。结合广东工业适度重型化发展特征,研究认为,能源效率提升仍是现阶段广东工业碳减排的主要途径。随着技术进步效应的边际递减,中远期碳减排的主要动力源于产业结构和能源结构的优化。     

Impact of VAT Reform on Swedish Restaurants: A Synthetic Control Group Approach*

In this paper, we investigate the impact on firms of the value added tax (VAT) reform that took effect in Sweden on 1 January 2012 for restaurant and catering services. Unlike previous research, we use a synthetic control group approach to construct our counterfactual. Our analysis shows that the VAT reduction had a positive effect on turnover, total wages, employment, profit margins, and net entry of firms. The effects of the reform tend to decrease over time. In all, the results point to an overall better performance for the restaurant industry compared with what it would have been in absence of the reform.