值得关注的管理学前沿:追随问题研究

企业怎样才能得到更好的发展,学术界一直致力于领导者和领导力的研究,认为领导对企业的发展起着至关重要的作用,却忽视了与领导力相对应的追随者和追随力的研究.事实上,追随者同样能对企业产生巨大的影响.国外对追随问题的研究,已经出现了很丰硕的研究成果,而在我国则还处于初级阶段.国外有关追随问题的研究文献,主要就追随力的定义、组织中的追随者类型、优秀追随者行为、追随者与领导者之间的关系等方面进行了深入的探讨,并取得了丰硕成果.     

信用风险、公司质量和“成长幻象”

债权融资能帮助中小企业解决资金问题,促进中小企业成长,但债权融资带来的信用风险也可能影响到企业,这些风险大部分是隐形的,不容易被察觉,因此,过多依赖债权融资的高成长性中小企业,可能会出现“成长幻象”,它们的高成长性只是昙花一现。     

Market stability switches in a continuous-time financial market with heterogeneous beliefs

By considering a financial market of fundamentalists and trend followers in which the price trend of trend followers is formed as a weighted average of historical prices, we establish a continuous-time financial market model with time delay and examine the impact of time delay on market price dynamics. Conditions for the stability of the fundamental price in terms of agents' behavior parameters and time delay are obtained. In particular, it is found that an increase in time delay can not only destabilize the market price but also stabilize an otherwise unstable market price, leading to stability switching as delay increases. These interesting phenomena shed new light in understanding of mechanism on the market stability. When the fundamental price becomes unstable through Hopf bifurcations, sufficient conditions on the stability and global existence of the periodic solution are obtained.     

Natural resource endowments and the domestic revenue effort

We examine whether there is evidence of an offset between government revenues from hydrocarbon (oil and gas) related activities and revenues from other domestic sources in a panel of 30 hydrocarbon producing countries. Our main finding is that there is an offset of about 20%, which is robust to the inclusion of control variables, the exclusion of outliers, and alternate estimation methodologies. While the impact of the offset on long-term development prospects is not clear, there is a risk of significant adjustment costs in moving to a higher level of domestic taxation once natural resources are depleted.     

成功幻觉与生产和人口的过度集中——兼论在城市发展规模上市场机制不一定是有效的

大多数人都觉得大城市的发展和事业成功的机会多,但到大城市工作的人只有少数能获得事业成功,根据成功机会预期进行就业地决策很可能遭受损失,这就是成功幻觉.本文研究发现,成功幻觉和待就业者对交通与住房成本的不敏感性,是生产与人口在大城市过度集中的两种市场机制.生产与人口的过度集中将导致虚假繁荣,即GDP快速上升,但大量社会产出被交通成本和住房成本所消耗,除少数成功者和土地所有者外,大多数人的实际收入和福利受到损失.因此,在城市发展规模上市场机制不一定是有效的.     

地方政府保障房供给的合作性努力与自私性努力：一项实证研究

地方政府具体落实保障房供给政策,其行为取向是保障房有效供给的决定性因素。构建改进的多任务委托代理模型,研究激励约束机制与地方政府付出的努力,以及与保障房供给行为取向之间的关系。研究结果表明：其一,地方政府的合作性努力水平与激励强度正相关。其二,约束机制缺失时,地方政府的自私性努力水平不随外部性强度的变化而变化;存在有效约束机制时,自私性努力水平与惩罚强度负相关。因而,增加保障房有效供给,既要激励地方政府的合作性努力,也要约束地方政府的自私性努力。     

转移支付对中国省级政府财政努力的影响

An ideal scheme of intergovernmental transfer should be determined by equalization and efficiency with taking account of fiscal effort of local governments. In this regard, this paper provides a comprehensive review of Chinese transfer system since the decentralized taxation system (DTS) starting from 1994. To begin with, we make numerical analysis on equalization in economic and fiscal aspects since the 1994 DTS reform. A Panel Data model is then developed to analyze correlations between each of three types of transfer and fiscal effort of provincial governments based on Chinese experience during 1994–2006. The authors further research respective situation of eastern, middle and western parts of China and finally draw a conclusion through the above analysis that the current fiscal transfer system does not tangibly contribute towards improving fiscal effort devoted by local governments. In addition to that, it even has a somewhat counter-equalizing effect.      

Expected inflation, expected stock returns, and money illusion: What can we learn from survey expectations?

We show empirically that survey-based measures of expected inflation are significant and strong predictors of future aggregate stock returns in several industrialized countries both in-sample and out-of-sample. Empirically discriminating between competing sources of this return predictability by virtue of a comprehensive set of expectations data, we find that money illusion seems to be the driving force behind our results. Another popular hypothesis – inflation as a proxy for aggregate risk aversion – is not supported by thedata.     

Fiscal illusion and the demand for government expenditures in the UK

This paper examines whether variables commonly used to test standard fiscal illusion arguments (that tax structure affects voters' demands for public goods) can help explain the time-series behaviour of government expenditure in the UK during 1955–1994. We modify a standard median voter model to incorporate fiscal illusion via ‘less visible' (indirect) taxes and deficit financing. While we find evidence that both are positively associated with increased government spending, this would appear to be consistent with both fiscal illusion and standard efficiency arguments.     

Output Variability and Economic Growth: the Japanese Case

We examine the empirical relationship between output variability and output growth using quarterly data for the 1961–2000 period for the Japanese economy. Using three different specifications of GARCH models, namely, Bollerslev's model, Taylor/Schwert's model, and Nelson's EGARCH model, we obtain two important results. First, we find robust evidence that the “in‐mean” coefficient is not statistically significant. This evidence is consistent with Speight's (1999) analysis of UK data and implies that output variability does not affect output growth. In other words, this finding supports several real business cycle theories of economic fluctuations. Second, we find no evidence of asymmetry between output variability and growth, a result consistent with Hamori (2000) .     

Are economic growth and the variability of the business cycle related? Evidence from five European countries

We use a long series of annual data that span over 100 years to examine the relationship between output growth and its uncertainty in five European countries. Using the GARCH methodology to proxy uncertainty, we obtain two important results. First, more uncertainty about output leads to a higher rate of growth in three of the five countries. Second, output growth reduces its uncertainty in all countries except one. Our results are robust to alternative specifications and provide strong support to the recent emphasis by macroeconomists on the joint examination of economic growth and the variability of the business cycle.     

Experienced Utility as a Standard of Policy Evaluation

This paper explores the possibility of basing economic appraisal on the measurement of experienced utility (utility as hedonic experience) rather than decision utility (utility as a representation of preference). Because of underestimation of the extent of hedonic adaptation to changed circumstances and because of the “focusing illusion” (exaggerating the importance of the current focus of one’s attention), individuals’ forecasts of experienced utility are subject to systematic error. Such errors induce preference anomalies which the experienced utility approach might circumvent. The “day reconstruction method” of measuring experienced utility is considered as a possible alternative to stated preference methods. JEL classifications: D63, Q51