从中国地方政府债务隐患看中国总体债务风险

审计署2011年6月发布的第35号公告显示,截至2010年末,全国省、市、县三级地方政府性债务余额共计107174.91亿元,这一债务总额超过2010年全国财政收入。地方政府债务风险一旦爆发将引起银行不良贷款率增加、地方经济发展停滞、政府公信力减弱,甚至影响地区乃至国家的经济安全。本文的创新点在于将地方政府债务纳入我国整体债务风险指标的评估范围,从新的视角分析中国的债务风险问题。     

浅谈审计视角下的地方政府债务管理

我国地方政府性债务一直被认为是近年来中国宏观经济领域中的重要潜在风险。如何摸清政府举债规模和债务风险水平,我国政府采取的主要方式是开展全国性的地方政府债务审计。本文从政府审计人员的视角出发,对地方政府债务的成因进行了梳理和分析,并从债务资金举借和使用两个重要环节入手,剖析债务审计的思路和方法,最后对政府债务风险管理提出若干建议。     

浅谈审计视角下的地方政府债务管理

我国地方政府性债务一直被认为是近年来中国宏观经济领域中的重要潜在风险。如何摸清政府举债规模和债务风险水平,我国政府采取的主要方式是开展全国性的地方政府债务审计。本文从政府审计人员的视角出发,对地方政府债务的成因进行了梳理和分析,并从债务资金举借和使用两个重要环节入手,剖析债务审计的思路和方法,最后对政府债务风险管理提出若干建议。     

中国地方政府债务权责划分:实践探索与改革建议

地方政府债务权责划分是一国分级财政体制的重要内容。实现中国地方政府债务的合法化已经成为解决当前地方政府债务问题的前提条件。地方政府债务的合法化不仅是债务融资权的界定问题,更是管理责任的归属问题。近年来中国某些地方已经开始自发地探索地方层面上的政府债务权责划分的方法。国家应尽快制定统一的法规,赋予地方政府合法举债权,但应严格控制债务规模、界定使用范围。应在财政部和省市县财政部门设立债务管理机构,明确地方政府的债务偿还及风险管理责任,加大债务监督力度。     

浅论地方政府债务的效应及原因

中国地方政府债务问题已经引起各界广泛的关注。地方政府债务问题的产生有多重原因,分税制改革带来财权与事权的矛盾、转移支付不足造成地方财政缺口、政府冲动投资刺激大行举债、官员仕途竞赛引发政府借债。另外,政府举债一方面可以提供更多的公共产品与服务、增加就业岗位、改善生活环境,促进经济增长;另一方面当地方政府债务超过了地方财政的可承受程度,会带来财政风险,降低政府的公信力。     

浅论地方政府债务的效应及原因

中国地方政府债务问题已经引起各界广泛的关注。地方政府债务问题的产生有多重原因,分税制改革带来财权与事权的矛盾、转移支付不足造成地方财政缺口、政府冲动投资刺激大行举债、官员仕途竞赛引发政府借债。另外,政府举债一方面可以提供更多的公共产品与服务、增加就业岗位、改善生活环境,促进经济增长;另一方面当地方政府债务超过了地方财政的可承受程度,会带来财政风险,降低政府的公信力。     

地方政府债务风险的衡量、分布与防范

本文以负债率、债务率、利息支出率、担保债务比重四个指标为中国债务风险衡量的主要指标,结合指标测算和债务情况及收入水平进行考察,结果显示中国地方政府整体债务风险可控,在近几年间政府有能力偿还债务利息.但中国债务风险区域分布不均衡,防控重点是经济发展处于全国中等水平的省市,这些省市亟须举债而在风险控制上相对较弱,经济发展较...     

中国债务风险实践

中国自改革开放后主要经历了三次债务风险:20世纪90年代初国企"三角债",90年代末国企债务向银行转移导致后者的不良资产上升,2008以来的地方债务扩张。三次债务危机主体及处置方式虽不同,但都遵循"经济过热,债务杠杆率过高;经济收缩,债务问题浮现"的逻辑。而且,危机沿着企业、银行和政府的链条展开。     

有效防控地方政府债务风险的政策建议

近年来,地方政府为了拉动本地区经济增长,在基础设施建设资金不足、而修订前的预算法又不允许地方政府举债的情况下,纷纷通过其他方式变相举债融资,地方政府债务风险悄然累积。从债务管理的各个方面看,我国尚未建立一个完善的地方政府债务风险管理体系,而进入"十三五"后各地的投资冲动依然强烈,这将使得地方政府的负债水平进一步上升。因此,当前亟需深化财税体制改革,加快经济体制改革,建立地方政府债务综合管理体系。     

对我国当前地方政府债务风险的研究

中国地方政府债务目前正处于失控边缘,规模呈加速上升趋势,严重影响社会经济生活的健康发展,防范和化解地方政府债务风险要做到标本兼治,必须从理顺体制入手,深化改革,建立良性发展机制,同时加强债务管理,有效控制地方政府债务风险,促进地方政府债务健康发展。     

中日韩外债规模、结构与可持续性

本文对中日韩三国外债规模、结构与可持续之间的关系进行分析，选择外债余额／GDP、外债余额／经常账户差额以及外债余额／国际储备三个指标对外债规模进行分析，从期限结构和外债种类两个方面对外债结构进行研究，指出外债可持续性不仅受到外债规模与结构的影响，也受到经济基本面、对外净资产、国际金融环境等因素的制约。     

Value Under Active and Passive Debt Management Policy

The relationship between debt policy and valuation has been extensively analysed in the finance literature; within a Modigliani-Miller framework, the consensus is that valuation is affected by whether debt is managed actively or passively, and that for finite projects with time varying risky cash flows, it is appropriate to use a weighted average discount rate for valuation only if it is assumed that debt is actively managed. In this paper, the relationship between debt policy and valuation is re-examined. In particular, it is shown that, under one of the most plausible forms of passive debt policy, valuation using a simple weighted average discount rate is in fact possible.     

Yield spreads,agency costs and the corporate bond call feature

This paper theoretically compares yields and optimal default policies for callable and non-callable corporate debt. It shows that, contrary to the conventional wisdom, it is possible for the yield spread (callable minus non-callable) to be negative. It also identifies the key determinants of the yield spread. Next, it shows that the optimal default trigger for non-callable debt is higher than the trigger for callable debt, resulting in additional default-related costs. Thus, the use of non-callable debt gives rise to an indirect agency cost of early default, which is the difference in total firm value with callable and non-callable debt. This agency cost provides a rationale for the existence of callable debt. By examining the determinants of the magnitude of this agency cost, the conditions that make callable debt more attractive (to the issuing firm) relative to non-callable debt are identified. This allows certain predictions to be made regarding the likelihood of a call feature in a corporate bond. The model's implications are supported by existing empirical studies.     

An analysis of secured debt

This paper analyzes the pricing of two types of secured debt and shows that secured debt can be used to increase the value of the firm. In particular, it is shown that some profitable projects will not be undertaken by a firm which can use only equity or unsecured debt to finance them but will be undertaken if they can be financed with secured debt. Secured debt is priced for a firm with two assets and some unsecured debt outstanding. The pricing results are used to illustrate the benefits of the security provision of secured debt.     

欧债危机对我国外债管理的启示及相关政策建议

目前,欧债危机仍在进一步恶化,这给全球金融市场与实体经济造成了巨大影响。尽管此次欧债危机并未对中国造成直接冲击,但毋庸置疑的是,当前我国的外债管理体制也存在一定的问题。因此,本文在深入研究我国外债管理中存在的问题的基础上,进一步分析了欧债危机对我国外债管理的启示,并就加快推进我国的外债管理体制改革提出了相关政策建议。     

Sovereign Debt: A Primer

The troublesome debts of a number of developing countries havespawned a large literature on why countries borrow, on the extentto which debt contributes to growth, on why countries repay,and on how debt problems should be handled. This article providesa basic introduction to some issues in sovereign debt. First,it presents the basic accounting concepts associated with debt.Second, it treats debt as a component of the intertemporal maximizationof a borrower in a competitive loan market facing an intertemporalbudget constraint. Third, it introduces debt into recent modelsof endogenous growth and examines what these models imply aboutthe relationship between debt and growth. Fourth, it discussesissues arising from sovereign risk. Fifth, it examines incentivesto repay. Sixth, it reviews the various options available toa creditor facing a debtor unwilling to meet current debt serviceobligations. Seventh, it examines debt buybacks.     

New considerations in the announcement effects of privately placed debt

We examine the stock price reaction to announcements of privately placed debt. The results suggest no effect for firms with a public debt rating and offsetting effects for firms without a public debt rating. If the private placement appears to reduce monitoring for a firm without a debt rating, it produces a significantly negative price response. However, if it appears to increase financial flexibility and bargaining power, it produces a positive reaction. Overall, the evidence suggests that private placements of debt are more similar to public bond issues than bank loans in terms of the price reaction at the announcement.     

The impact of firm size on bank debt use

I use a sample of US firms to examine the determinants of the concentration of bank debt in total debt. The results indicate that the factors vary by size of the firm. A small- to medium-sized firm has a high concentration of bank debt when it has a low level of discretionary spending. In contrast, a large firm has a high concentration of bank debt when it is difficult for outsiders to observe. The results support the Diamond [J Polit Econ 99 (1991) 689] reputation view that a firm faces different debt choices as it grows. When evaluating bank regulations, policymakers should consider the importance of the reputation-building services, which a bank provides to businesses.     

债务置换改善了地方政府债务可持续性吗？

2015年后实施的债务置换对地方政府债务可持续性的影响值得关注。为此,将债务置换作为准自然实验,以2008—2020年285个城市为样本,检验债务置换对债务可持续性的影响。结果发现：债务置换对隐性债务和经济增长产生了双重不利影响。其一,债务置换降低债务利息负担,拉长债务期限,虽然缓解了流动性风险,但债务置换助长地方政府道德风险,强化金融机构救助预期,导致隐性债务继续增加,总体上不利于债务可持续性。其二,债务置换产生明显挤出效应,也降低了地方政府债务支出效率,损害了经济增长,同样不利于债务可持续性。鉴于此,应重点防范债务置换过程中产生的负面作用,以提高地方政府债务治理的有效性。     

我国财政债务风险分析

近几年大力扩张国债使我国潜在的财政债务风险浮出水面。为保证我国经济持续发展，2001年积极财政政策仍需继续发放国债，我国财政债务风险主要体现为中央财政债务风险较大，适度调整国债政策是防范中央财政债务风险的要求。加强外债管理，调整内债期限结构、持有者结构、完善偿债基金制度，尝试增发地方国债等措施，是化解中央财政债务风险的现实选择。