Incentives and selection in cyclical absenteeism

Procyclical absenteeism might be due to the higher sick rates of marginal workers or a consequence of procyclical incentives to report sick. These hypotheses predict opposite signs for the correlation between sick rates and shares of temporary contracts. Workers on temporary contracts are associated with lower job security in comparison with workers on time-unlimited contracts, implying that temporary employees run the highest risk of lay-off and are expected to have stronger incentives for job attendance. Using industry–region panel data, we find a stable negative correlation between sick rates and shares of temporary contracts implying that procyclical sick rates are compatible with the idea that incentives to report sick are also procyclical.     

Consumer expectations and cyclical durations

Do variations in consumer expectations lead to changes in business-cycle durations? Intuitively, the answer is in the affirmative. In this study it is postulated that expectations are self-fulfilling; optimistic sentiments postpone cyclical peaks and promote cyclical troughs, and pessimistic sentiments result in the opposite combination. First, it is shown that the hypothesis that consumer expectations do not Granger-cause cyclical duration is rejected. Survival analysis is then used to investigate the association between changes in consumer expectations ana business-cycle durations. In particular, it is found that consumers' optimism associates with longer expansion durations, and vice-versa.     

On detrending and cyclical asymmetry

This paper considers the issue of testing for symmetry of the business cycle. It is demonstrated that findings of symmetry should be interpreted with caution since tests tend to have low power to detect asymmetries when applied to data that have been filtered to isolate their stationary business‐cycle component. This implies that asymmetries are likely to be detected in practice only when they are particularly prominent. An empirical application examines the properties of the cyclical component of real GDP for the G7 countries. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Age-specific cyclical effects in job reallocation and labor mobility

We present an empirical analysis of job reallocation and labor mobility using matched worker-firm data for the Netherlands. Our data cover the period 1993–2002. We find that cyclical adjustments of the workforce occur mainly through fluctuations in worker entry for young and prime-age workers while for old workers they occur mainly through fluctuations in separations. Moreover, we find that employment dynamics of young workers are affected especially by national and sectoral employment fluctuations whereas employment of old workers varies especially with firm-specific employment changes.     

Deep habits and the cyclical behaviour of equilibrium unemployment and vacancies

We extend the standard textbook search and matching model by introducing deep habits in consumption. This assumption generates amplification in the response of labour market variables to technology shocks by producing endogenous countercyclical mark-ups. The cyclical fluctuations of vacancies and unemployment in our model can replicate those observed in the US data, with labour market tightness being 20 times more volatile than consumption. Vacancies display a hump-shaped response to technology shocks and the numerical simulations generate an artificial Beveridge curve that is in line with the data. Our model preserves the assumption of fully flexible wages for new hires and the calibration is consistent with the estimated elasticity of unemployment to unemployment benefits. Finally, we show that in contrast to models with exogenous mark-up shocks, the deep habits model does not require an implausible variation in the elasticity of demand to match the volatility of labour market variables, and the cyclical properties of the mark-up are in line with empirical evidence.     

The cyclical upgrading of labor and on-the-job search

This paper examines patterns of worker reallocation in the search and matching model of the labor market. We show that on-the-job search is crucial for explaining the observed cyclical upgrading of workers to better employment opportunities in booms. This is due to the rising availability of employed searchers which facilitates recruitment for newly created high-wage jobs. The standard model fails to exhibit such behavior. At the same time, the model is consistent with salient features of labor market dynamics, such as the volatility of vacancies and unemployment, and a highly procyclical rate of job-to-job transitions. This suggests an important channel for the reallocation of workers across jobs as well as the propagation of aggregate shocks.     

Persistence in corporate networks

We examine the bipartite graphs of German corporate boards in 1993, 1999 and 2005, focusing on their projections onto directors (the “personal” network) and onto companies (the “institutional” network). The novel feature here is our focus on the temporal evolution of the two projections. The personal networks exhibit cores of highly central directors who are densely connected among themselves, while the institutional networks show a persistent core of large corporations whose identity remains mostly the same. This results in the persistent presence of a core network of very large corporations, despite substantial turnover in the identity of directors and significant changes in Germany’s corporate governance during the investigated period. Our findings strongly suggest that core persistence originates from the board appointment decisions of the very largest corporations and is largely independent of personal destinies.     

Duration dependence in the exit rate out of unemployment in Belgium. Is it true or spurious?

On the basis of aggregate data for the early 1990s, we analyse the determinants of unemployment duration for laid‐off male workers in Wallonia (Belgium). Our results indicate that if ranking in recruitment occurs, the standard mixed proportional hazard specification can be too restrictive, leading to an overstatement of the extent of true negative duration dependence. We conclude that negative duration dependence is largely spurious. We also decompose the time variation of the hazard in (unobserved) compositional and direct cyclical and seasonal effects. We find counter‐cyclical variation in the quality of young workers, but none for the prime aged. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Changes in seasonal patterns : Are they cyclical?

This paper explores the hypothesis that the seasonal patterns of macroeconomic variables vary with expansions and contractions. Graphical techniques and generalized predictive tests for structural stability are used to identify and test patterns of changing seasonality. A Monte Carlo exercise shows the power of the tests against interesting alternatives. The empirical results suggest that seasonal patterns are unstable and that in many cases changes are linked to the stages of the business cycle. The forecasting costs incurred by treating seasonality as constant are discussed and evaluated.     

Estimating the sensitivity of state tax revenue to cyclical and wealth effects

In this study, we estimate the elasticities of alternative sources of state tax revenue relative to the economy, as measured by GSP, and to wealth, as measured by the S&P500. Next, efficient tax frontiers are estimated for each state by minimizing the standard deviation, given the current average growth rate of revenues. It is shown how states could attain the same expected growth rate of tax revenues with less volatility by modifying the composition of their existing tax structures. In most cases, corporate income taxes are found to reduce efficiency due to their high volatility without a correspondingly high growth rate.     

US elections and monthly stock market returns

Using monthly market returns over a period of 104 years, we investigate possible relationships between stock market performance and various occurrences in American elections. Unlike most prior studies, we find little relationship between the two. In the relatively few cases where we do find statistically significant relationships, the degree of explanatory power is quite small. Specifically, market returns do not appear to vary based on partisan control of the government, a result that is robust to the inclusion or exclusion of macroeconomic control variables. Further, the often-discussed “second-half” effect, which predicts higher returns during the second half of a given presidential term, turns out to be both weaker and less straightforward than is commonly believed. Overall, neither election results nor the election cycle appears to offer much help in predicting stock market returns.      

Common cyclical features analysis in VAR models with cointegration

The paper considers n-dimensional VAR models for variables exhibiting cointegration and common cyclical features. Two specific reduced rank vector error correction models are discussed. In one, named the “strong form” and denoted by SF, the collection of all coefficient matrices of a VECM has rank less than n, in the other, named the “weak form” and denoted by WF, the collection of all coefficient matrices except the matrix of coefficient of error correction terms has rank less than n. The paper explores the theoretical connections between these two forms, suggests asymptotic tests for each form and examines the small sample properties of these tests by Monte Carlo simulations.     

The cyclical pattern of regional unemployment flows in Poland

Using male unemployment benefit data across Polish regions during 1994–1996, we find that unemployment flows are pro-cyclical and increase with job reallocation, controlling for other factors. At the national level we observe that job reallocation and output are associated with stagnant unemployment flows, low inflows and long duration. This has heretofore been attributed to workers by-passing the unemployment benefit system as they move job to job. We show this to be a fallacy of aggregation. The cyclical behaviour of regional unemployment flows and their response to job reallocation suggests that workers use unemployment benefit system to facilitate transition.     

谈企业集团财务战略的周期特征

本文分析了企业集团在生命周期各个阶段的主要特征,并对企业集团在生命周期不同阶段所应采取的财务战略进行了探讨.     

通货膨胀持久性及其非对称性研究——基于分位数自回归模型

本文运用分位数自回归模型研究中国通胀率的持久性及其非对称性特征.研究结果表明,中国通胀率具有高持久性,从通胀率条件分布的低分位数到高分位数,持久性不断增强.基于不同分位数的单位根检验结果显示,中国的通胀持久性具有非对称性,即在受到负向冲击或减速通胀状态下,通胀率序列往往服从平稳自回归过程;而在受到正向冲击或加速通胀状态下,通胀率序列通常服从单位根过程.分位数自回归模型可以有效区分通胀率波动路径中的平稳点和非平稳点.据此,央行可以构建预警机制,以对通胀率的波动进行实时监测和调控.     

Bayes model averaging of cyclical decompositions in economic time series

A flexible decomposition of a time series into stochastic cycles under possible non‐stationarity is specified, providing both a useful data analysis tool and a very wide model class. A Bayes procedure using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is introduced with a model averaging approach which explicitly deals with the uncertainty on the appropriate number of cycles. The convergence of the MCMC method is substantially accelerated through a convenient reparametrization based on a hierarchical structure of variances in a state space model. The model and corresponding inferential procedure are applied to simulated data and to cyclical economic time series like US industrial production and unemployment. We derive the implied posterior distributions of model parameters and some relevant functions thereof, shedding light on several key features of economic time series. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The use of monthly and quarterly data in an ARMA model

This paper deals with specification, prediction and length of interval between the observations in an ARMA model. An AR(1) model is found to be suitable for a specific monthly time series. From this series we construct two types of quarterly series and derive the corresponding ARMA models. The theoretical parameter values of the quarterly models, given the monthly model, are compared with the values found empirically when no monthly series exists. By using the variance of the predictor error, we assess the performance of all specifications in predicting up to one year ahead. We show that while the monthly model performs best in theory, the values computed directly from the estimates prove in our empirical example the quarterly models to be preferable in most cases where we are to predict more than one quarter ahead.