Forecasting tourist arrivals in Barbados

Importance of forecasting in tourism is not a controversial issue. Recently, there has been increased attention on forecasting models in tourism. The value of a forecasting model depends on the accuracy of out-of-sample forecasts. At present, there is no indication as to which model or class of models is suitable for forecasting tourism. This paper specifies, estimates, and validates an ARIMA model for forecasting long-stay visitors in Barbados. The accuracy of the short-term forecasts surpasses most recent forecasting studies. The implication of the study is that customized model building may be highly rewarding in terms of accurate forecasts compared to standard or simple methods.     

A facilitated access model and ottoman empire tourism

This paper proposes a “facilitated access” model to describe how local people make and have made use of tourism. Although Western travel accounts of the Arab Middle East have been studied by various disciplines, the Ottoman Empire has not been treated from a tourism studies approach. Travel narratives from 1835 to 1870 are used to reconstruct how, and tentatively why, Ottoman subjects adapted existing tourism services and expertise to the new Western tourists of the era. It is argued that Western tourism in the empire flourished in the foundational period before Cook Company tours began in 1869 because some Ottoman subjects could thus increase their own autonomy.     

Resort cycle revisited: The retirement connection

This article reappraises the Butler model of resort evolution with the addition of a focus on retirement-tourism relationships. The model predicts retirement will emerge as a major factor in resorts as tourism goes into decline, but an examination of trends in Parksville and Qualicum Beach, British Columbia, Canada, revealed retirement has been a feature of those resorts since their early days and has grown alongside tourism. However, an analysis of content of local newspapers revealed that the two communities came to appreciate the retirement sector with their first major downturn in tourism, which in itself partially supports Butler's thesis.     

A framework of tourist attraction research

Although tourist attractions are fundamental to the very existence of tourism, there have been few attemps to come to terms with the breadth of approaches that have been employed in their study. An examination of research methods used in the study of tourist attractions and the tourist attractiveness of places reveals that most studies can be classified into one or more of three general perspectives: the ideographic listing, the organization, and the tourist cognition of attractions. Each of these perspectives shares a distinct set of questions concerning the nature of the attractions, as expressed through the typologies used in their evaluation. At the same time, all three perspectives make comparisons based on the historical, locational, and various valuational aspects of attractions. This framework can be applied in the comparison and evaluation of tourist attraction related research.     

Tourists and retailers' perceptions of services

This paper describes a study which measures tourist and retailers' perceptions of service levels in a tourism destination. A service quality model was used to develop survey items and interpret the results. The service dimensions used to evaluate a tourism experience included reliability, responsive, assurance, and access. The results indicate tourists evaluate tourism services based on “who” delivers as opposed to the nature of the services (as outlined in the Service Quality model). This has implications for those who create and service tourism destinations, such as city planners and leaders, tourism convention and visitor bureaus, and retailers.     

Towards an ethics platform for tourism

Ethical distinctions inform all human actions and decisions. On inspection, however, dominant paradigms in tourism scholarship are imbued with the myth of objectivity and thus ignore the ethical dimension. Since the four platforms of scholarship were first published in 1990, a representation of one of the most value-based concepts of this time, sustainable development, has been embraced; a fifth platform has emerged to dominate the rhetoric of tourism praxis. However, this paper argues that a sixth platform, an ethics platform, is needed to interrogate the morality of the positions taken in policy, planning, development, and management. These platforms are proposed against a background of environmental ethics and global political economy.     

Tourism productivity: Evidence from the United Kingdom

This paper examines the ways in which productivity in tourism businesses can be increased by studying the roles of changes in physical capital, human capital, innovation, and the competitive environment. Comprehensive results are obtained by using questionnaire-based interviews, business survey data analysis, and computable general equilibrium modeling. The results demonstrate the positive contribution that each of the productivity drivers can make to improving efficiency and welfare, notably increases in human capital and innovation. They also indicate that a combined strategy incorporating all of the drivers is more effective than independently formulated policies. Government organizations can collaborate to assist productivity increases, with specifically tailored measures for small businesses.     

Forecasting international tourism trends to 2010

Modifications of earlier versions of forecasting models make it possible to trace the effects of changes in income and prices emanating from each individual country considered in this paper. At the theoretical level, it examines the assumptions underlying partial demand models and points out the implications of these assumptions in the context of those relating to international tourism. The new model is used to generate forecasts of tourism imports and exports for 20 countries for the period up to 2010. It allows a more realistic simulation of the impact of political events such as the introduction of the Euro and of changes in framework conditions.     

Pooling international tourism in Western Europe

This paper examines potential improvements in measures of international travel demand elasticities by pooling cross sections and time series of travel receipts. International travel receipts for 18 European countries are pooled and estimates of elasticities with respect to income, exchange rates, relative prices, transport costs, and number of terrorism events are computed. Indexes are developed for the purpose of measuring and aggregating transport costs and terrorism. The results show that the responses to changes in these variables are significantly different across countries. When the countries are constrained to have the same elasticities, but the constants are allowed to be different, it is found that all variables affect tourism in the expected direction and are statistically significant.     

Destination place planning and design

Destination place management requires that land use and development issues be addressed. Despite considerable advancement in the methodological processes, there is still no clear conceptual destination model to address these issues. Existing models have largely been developed through a fragmented case-study approach and have not yet achieved a sufficiently integrated conceptual basis for a comprehensive understanding of the spatial characteristics of destination regions. This paper attempts to sharpen the conceptualization of the core elements of destination regions by building upon existing models and concepts. The model presented here is a systemic construct and provides for a common platform from which investigations can proceed into the normative and functional aspects of spatial destination design.     

Devaluation and US tourism expenditure in Mexico

Studies that investigate the factors affecting US tourism expenditures in Mexico generally regard relative prices in these countries as sensitive determinants. The findings of inelasticity of expenditures of American tourists with respect to prices in the Mexican interior and border in several studies published in the 1980s are debatable. This study evaluates the impact of recent peso devaluations by adjusting 1970–1982 US tourism expenditures by an index that combines the Consumer Price Index in dollars, the CPI in pesos, and the exchange rate. The results here clearly indicate that US expenditures in the interior and on the border are price sensitive and have a strong positive trend reaction to devaluation in both nominal and real terms. Border expenditures clearly exceed interior expenditures and are more sensitive to exchange rate changes than expenditures in interior Mexico.     

Market shares analysis: The Case of French Tourism Demand

This paper examines the magnitudes and determinants of changes in destinations’ shares of a major tourist origin market. The Almost Ideal Demand System model is used to quantify the responsiveness of French tourism demand in Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom to changes in relative prices, exchange rates, tourists’ expenditure budget, and external events. The results indicate that effective price competitiveness is a key variable driving changes in market shares. Policymakers who wish to maintain their shares of the French market should pay particular attention to tourism pricing policies, as well as to improving the tourism offer.     

The disciplinary dilemma of tourism studies

Though tourism is a complex phenomenon crossing many disciplines, researchers tend to approach tourism studies from within the specific boundaries of the main discipline in which they have been trained. Existing tourism theory is thus fragmented and weak. This paper looks at the potential for developing more holistic and integrated theories than currently exist, and for tourism studies evolving into a distinct discipline. The current state of debate in this area is introduced, and several disciplines impacting on tourism studies are examined. Insights are drawn from two distinct philosophy of science perspectives, T.S. Kuhn and R.J. Bernstein. Suggestions are made for advancing the evolution and integration of tourism studies.     

Geographical consciousness and tourism experience

Scholars of many persuasions have recognized the experiential features of geography, such as the consciousness arising from the spatial and temporal bonds between people and places. Until recently, however, tourism researchers have largely overlooked those features. In partial response to this omission, this article presents a phenomenological exploration of leisure tourism experience. By describing the lived experiences of Canadian tourists traveling to and within China on two separate package tours, this article discusses if and how geographical consciousness influences the tourists’ experiences. Its main purpose is to provide insights for research and application.     

The iconography of the tourism experience

Guides to tourism planning typically lack a language for dealing with the destination's experiential content. This article argues that tourism planning has as its central challenge the design of effective touristic experiences, and can find conceptual sources for this task in iconography, the field that studies the meanings of images. In search of iconographie principles for tourism design, the article investigates Niagara Falls, still one of the foremost attractions in North America. At Niagara Falls, the article identifies two main compositional elements: staging, which situates a desirable motif (in this case a waterfall) in a stage setting; and thematizing, which links the motif to concepts (like terror or romance) that make it evocative.     

Residents' perceptions on tourism impacts

The limited explanatory research on residents' perceptions of tourism impacts has resulted in an underdeveloped theoretical orientation of research on this subject. This paper presents a social exchange process model as a theoretical basis for some understanding of why residents perceive tourism impacts positively or negatively. The model is based upon the concept of the exchange relation. Propositions are derived from the model to test the relationships between the model's components. These propositions have been developed from inferences based upon the social exchange literature.     

The positioning of overseas honeymoon destinations

The objective of this study was to investigate the competitiveness of seven overseas honeymoon destinations among potential Korean tourists, and the positioning among them. The main analytical techniques used were multidimensional scaling and correspondence analyses. Results included a variety of information on image similarity, strengths, and ideals of destinations among seven sites, as well as the relationships of major sociodemographic and tourism variables to the sites. The results provide significant insights for a more effective approach to the market positioning of competing places for a honeymoon trip.     

TERRITORIAL PLANNING AND TOURISM DEVELOPMENT TAX

An economic model of land taxation involving a local government and a private developer constitutes the theoretical framework in this research. The model hinges around a two-tier approach including both a conservation and an efficiency criterion. The analysis indicates that sustainable tourism calls for the use of land taxation and planning legislation simultaneously geared to the achievement of efficiency and the signaling of the government’s commitment to conservation policies. To provide support for the theoretical conclusions, an Italian case study is discussed, showing how the local government chose not to yield to a developer’s requests by not changing a norm prohibiting construction near of the coastline.     

Inbound tourism policies in Japan from 1859 to 2003

This paper aims to clarify the development process of the inbound tourism policies of Japan from 1859 to 2003. Evolving through five periods and ten phases, policies have been variously promoted to obtain foreign currencies and break the country’s isolation at the earliest stage, to make it a peaceful and cultured nation via international exchanges and friendship after the Pacific War, and, more recently, to contribute to its economic revitalization in recession. The relationships between inbound and national land policies, as well as nonstructural aspects such as promotion, advertising, and services, are also examined.     

Tourism land use conflict in the United States

Despite numerous articles detailing the consequences of tourism, one's understanding of the conflict caused by tourism development is limited. This paper attempts to identify generalizable features of the tourism development debate in the United States through the use of a locational conflict framework. A typology of tourism development was created using content analysis of newspaper articles that described conflict over tourism related land use changes. The results of the analysis indicate that the number of tourism development conflict incidents and the issues involved in these incidents varied substantially across the United States. Analysis also indicates that the participants involved in the conflicts aligned themselves into different coalitions, depending upon the particular issue. This suggests that the particular tourism development issue is the most important variable affecting generalizations about tourism development conflict.