Export subsidies and trade policy: The experience of Kenya

This paper finds that manufacturing firms in Kenya have responded poorly to the availability of export subsidies. It is argued that this has resulted from the delays and uncertainty surrounding disbursement procedures, and from the limited extent to which the subsidy lessened the anti-export bias of a policy structure which has emphasized import substitution. It is further argued that a budgetary constraint makes it impossible to offset the anti-export bias with export subsidies at existing levels of domestic market protection, and that what is required is the lowering and standardization of domestic market protection levels, which can be most appropriately achieved through a combination of devaluation and trade tax/subsidy changes.     

Synergies and competition: Export survival in Africa and Latin America

Using firm-level export data from six African (Burkina Faso and Senegal) and Latin American (Guatemala, Mexico, Peru, and Uruguay) countries, we examine factors that determine the survival of export flows. We explore the effects on export survival of changes in the number of home-country exporters serving the same destination, firm-level export diversification, and country-level factors. Unlike previous studies, we find that export survival rates decrease with the number of co-exporters selling the same product to the same country. We also find that the relationship between firm-level product diversification and export flow survival is hump-shaped: firms that do not diversify or are highly diversified have lower survival of product-destination flows. Our findings are robust to various alternative specifications. The main findings hold across both regions and all countries. However, the number of co-exporters negatively affects survival in Africa more than in Latin America.     

Export survival pattern and its determinants: an empirical study of Chinese manufacturing firms

While empirical studies of export entry have proliferated, less attention has been devoted to the study of export survival in foreign markets. This paper explores the patterns and determinants of export survival using data on Chinese manufacturing firms for the period 1998–2007. The analytical methods used include non‐parametric techniques and the estimation of a discrete‐time duration model. Our results show the high probability of exit of exporters at the start of the period. We also find that large, highly productive and more export‐oriented firms are more likely to export for a longer period. In addition, foreign ownership is found to be an important determinant of export survival, while state ownership increases the risk of export failure.     

Fixed Export Costs and Export Behavior

This article provides a direct assessment of how fixed export costs (FECs) and productivity jointly determine firm‐level export behavior. Using Chilean data, we construct indices of FECs for each industry‐region‐year triplet and match them to domestic firms. Our empirical results show that firms facing higher estimated FECs are less likely to export, while those with higher productivity export more. These outcomes are the foundation of the widely‐used sorting mechanism in trade models with firm heterogeneity. We also find that the substitution between FECs and productivity in determining export decisions is weaker for firms with higher productivity. Finally, among firms that export, both larger FECs and greater within‐triplet productivity dispersion are associated with a greater export volume of the average exporter.     

Joint-Product Export Smuggling and Export Tax Policy

The effect of smuggling on tax revenue collection and the revenue-maximizing tax rate is an unresolved issue in the smuggling literature. Clandestine and joint-product smuggling models arrive at different conclusions concerning smuggling's effect on tax revenue collection and the revenue-maximizing tax rate. Clandestine (joint-product) smuggling is consistent with the assumption that legal and illegal trade are substitutable (complementary) activities for the exporting firm. The effect of smuggling on the tax rate and tax revenue is shown to be dependent on whether smuggling and legal trade are assumed to be complementary or substitutable activities.     

企业出口模式与出口产品质量:微观理论与经验证据

文章借鉴Khandelwal et al.(2013)扩展的产品质量异质性模型,构建了一个两国之间产品贸易的一般均衡模型,并推导企业出口模式选择影响产品质量升级的理论框架,再利用2000-2013年中国工业企业和海关数据构建双重差分模型对理论假说进行系统检验。结果发现:(1)直接出口企业对产品质量的提升效应明显高于间接出口企业,"反事实"检验和安慰剂检验的结果依然稳健。(2)通过异质性分析发现,东部地区企业出口的产品质量提升效应显著高于中西部地区企业,而且中西部地区的间接出口抑制出口产品质量提升;民营、外资企业直接出口和间接出口对产品质量提升效应均高于国有企业。(3)进一步研究企业出口模式的动态转换效应发现,企业由间接出口转向直接出口显著提升了出口产品质量,并且生产率较高的企业通过提升出口固定成本效率而加速出口产品质量升级。     

人民币汇率、企业出口边际与出口动态

基于2000~2007年工业企业微观数据和高度细化的海关数据,文章深入考察了人民币实际有效汇率对中国工业企业出口行为的影响。结果显示:(1)人民币实际有效汇率升值对中国工业企业的出口决策、出口数量、出口价格和出口额均有显著的抑制作用,并且从标准化系数来看,其对出口数量、出口价格和出口额的影响相对较大,这说明人民币实际有效汇率对企业出口的影响更多体现在集约边际上,并且在集约边际内部,企业主要通过调整出口数量来应对人民币实际有效汇率升值对其出口的冲击;(2)人民币实际有效汇率对企业出口行为的影响因企业生产率水平、规模、融资约束、所有制和贸易方式的不同而具有显著的异质性;(3)就人民币实际有效汇率与企业出口持续期的生存分析发现,人民币实际有效汇率升值显著缩短了企业出口的持续时间。     

出口固定成本、融资约束与中国企业出口参与

本文基于新新贸易理论和中国企业面临融资约束的现实,建立离散动态出口模型,发现克服出口固定成本和缓解融资约束可以促进企业出口参与。进而运用2004～2008年中国七十余万家制造业企业数据,从内源融资、银行信贷和商业信贷3个维度衡量融资约束,实证检验理论分析。结果发现,克服出口固定成本是企业参与出口的关键,商业信贷对企业出口参与贡献最大,银行信贷次之,内源融资贡献最小。细化样本后发现,克服出口固定成本仍然是出口的关键,但是,无内源融资企业较之有内源融资企业,内资企业较之外资企业,出口融资都更多依赖商业信贷和银行信贷;国有企业出口融资更多依赖银行信贷,而民营企业更多依赖商业信贷。变化融资约束衡量方法后,结果依然稳健。     

贸易“新常态”背景下中国出口贸易模式转型的成本考量

以贸易成本和生产成本的变化为切入点,运用2003年至2013年27个行业的面板数据,比较分析了劳动力成本、企业规模、劳动生产率在2008年金融危机前后的两个时期内对于出口贸易的不同影响,以此说明成本因素变化对于贸易转型的作用机制。研究结果表明,一方面,劳动力成本的提高是影响我国出口贸易向贸易“新常态”转变的重要原因。另一方面,规模经济所带来的成本优势正在弱化,重“量”而轻“质”的粗放型外贸发展模式不可持续。     

毗邻效应、出口经验溢出与企业出口行为

文章使用2000～2013年中国海关企业数据,基于出口经验溢出视角构造四个毗邻效应代理变量,采用Heckman二阶段模型判断这几个变量性质,并进一步采用扩展引力模型考察毗邻效应对企业出口行为(进入、退出和销售)的影响。研究发现:毗邻效应引致的出口经验溢出对企业出口二元边际有显著影响,即其可能对出口固定和可变成本降低都有利;采用Probit模型估计出口进入/退出,采用2SLS估计企业出口销售,结果表明毗邻效应引致的出口经验溢出会对企业出口进入和销售都产生显著正向影响,对企业出口退出产生显著负向影响;目的国与中国距离越近、市场规模越大、与任一已有市场有共同官方语言且企业生产率越高、以往出口目的国数量越多,则越有利于企业出口进入和销售,越不利于出口退出;企业在进入某一出口市场的初期退出该市场的风险也更大;以上结论在基于企业性质分类样本回归中存在一定异质性,但采用不同计量方法时稳健。上述结论意味着政府应加强基础设施建设和贸易便利化改革,推动形成中国全面开放新格局;应对私营企业在融资、税收和研发上给予更多补贴和政策支持,激发各类市场活力。     

双边实际汇率、出口规模与出口质量

本文采用2005~2011年中国对147个国家和地区的6位数海关编码出口数据,实证研究了人民币与进口国货币之间的双边实际汇率变化对中国出口的影响。研究表明,不同产品出口的实际汇率弹性与产品质量有关,高技术含量产品出口的汇率弹性小于低技术含量产品。人民币相对于进口国货币的实际升值一方面会对出口规模产生显著的负面影响,另一方面却能优化出口结构,提升中国出口产品的整体质量。     

A Rationale for the WTO Prohibition of Export Subsidies: Strategic Export Subsidies and World Welfare

This article presents a model that provides an economic rationale for multilateral agreements, such as the WTO, that prohibit export subsidies. The model is a multicountry version of the well-known Brander and Spencer (Journal of International Economics (1985) 18, 83–100) analysis of profit-shifting export subsidies, with the addition of an opportunity cost of government revenue greater than unity, as in Neary (Journal of International Economics (1994) 37, 197–218) to capture the fact that the export subsidy will typically be funded by distortionary taxation. It explains the unilateral incentive for welfare-maximizing governments to provide export subsidies and shows how the multilateral prohibition of export subsidies may increase world welfare.     

R&D and the Export Decision of New Firms

Recent literature on the firm‐level decision to export has focused on identifying factors that influence the export decision by firms regardless of the number of years they have been in operation. This article, alternatively, examines the factors that influence new firms to export within the first four years of operation. The results support two key findings that have commonly emerged from entrepreneurial case studies: (1) There is a positive link between research and development (R&D) and early internationalization, and (2) international ties of managers, as is evidenced by the effect of foreign‐born owners, positively impact the firm's decision to export. The former result is the emphasis of this article. In addition, we find that innovation spillovers from neighboring firms impact the export decision of new firms that engage in R&D.     

外商直接投资与我国的出口商品结构优化

本文运用协整方法和格兰杰因果关系检验方法对外商在华直接投资与我国出口商品结构的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明,外商直接投资与我国出口商品结构之间存在一个协整关系,外商直接投资是我国出口商品结构优化的格兰杰原因。然后分析了我国出口商品结构的现状,最后提出了利用外商直接投资优化我国出口商品结构的政策建议。     

Relaxing Export Supply Capacity Constraints and Promoting Export Expansion and Diversification in Africa: The Role of Special Export Development Strategies

Abstract: This paper examines the role of several export development strategies in relaxing export supply capacity constraints and promoting export expansion and diversification in Africa. It starts with a review of the analysis and recommendations in Can Africa Claim the 21st Century? ( World Bank, 2000 ) and an identification of subsisting supply obstacles. This forms the background against which the paper discusses changes in the growth, structure and destination of African exports during 2000–2005; explores the use of export development strategies (such as supply chain management, networks and clusters, as well as branding); and discusses the enhancement of market access of African exports regionally and globally. The paper concludes with an analysis of the prospects for relaxing Africa's export supply response capacity constraints and the feasibility/viability of the suggested strategies for expanding and diversifying the region's exports.     

全球价值链嵌入位置、出口目的国与出口产品复杂度

价值链嵌入位置对出口产品质量、出口产品复杂度的影响机制关乎一国贸易政策以及国内产业结构调整和全球分工战略制定。文章基于需求侧"技术复杂度偏好"这一视角考察价值链嵌入位置差异对一国出口产品复杂度的影响。使用UN COMTRADE(1998~2014年)6位数贸易数据和WIOD(1995~2011年)国家-行业水平经济指标及投入产出表数据,测算了基于全球生产分工下的出口复杂度和价值链中要素供给侧上游度、产品需求侧下游度。研究发现,供给侧以及需求侧嵌入位置均与出口产品复杂度显著正相关;出口产品复杂度随出口目的国人均收入递增;全球价值链嵌入位置与出口目的国人均收入之间交互项为负,当出国目的国为高收入国家时,行业在全球价值链上的嵌入位置更加靠近最终产品使用端。进一步的研究发现,金融危机对低复杂度行业的影响更显著,有助于分工的进一步深化和国家间转移。     

要素市场扭曲对中国本土企业出口行为的影响——出口选择抑或出口数量

要素市场扭曲是影响中国本土企业出口的重要因素,对企业选择更多出口还是选择更高的出口数量具有重要的影响。本文在理论分析要素市场扭曲对企业出口两种成本影响机制的基础上,运用中国工业部门2001~2007年的企业数据,采用Heckman两阶段选择模型实质检验了要素市场扭曲对中国本土企业出口行为的影响。研究发现,要素市场扭曲对企业的出口选择和出口数量具有相反的影响作用,刺激了更多的企业选择出口,但是抑制了出口企业出口数量的提升;分所有制视角的检验发现,上述影响对于非国有企业更加明显;在采用工具变量控制内生性以后,以上结论依然成立。