Mixed-frequency approaches to nowcasting GDP: An application to Japan

In this paper, we discuss the approaches to nowcasting Japan’s GDP quarterly growth rates, comparing a variety of mixed frequency approaches including a bridge equation approach, Mixed-Data Sampling (MIDAS) and factor-augmented version of these approaches. In doing so, we examine the usefulness of a novel sparse principal component analysis (SPCA) approach in extracting factors from the dataset. We also discuss the usefulness of forecast combination, considering various ways to combine forecasts from models and surveys. Our findings are summarized as follows. First, some of the mixed frequency models discussed in this paper record out-of-sample performance superior to a naïve constant growth model. Second, albeit small, the SPCA approach of extracting factors improves predictive power compared with traditional principal component approach. Furthermore, we find that there is a gain from combining model forecasts and professional survey forecasts.     

From edgeworth to Vickrey to Mirrlees: The Vickrey Lecture

William Vickrey'sAgenda for Progressive Taxation is perhaps his best-known work. It stands roughly half way between Edgeworth and Mirrlees, both historically and intellectually. Edgeworth argued that the optimal tax (and transfer) system equalized incomes by taxing above-average incomes at 100 percent and transferring the proceeds to those below average. Mirrlees argued optimality in the presence of disincentive effects, which Edgeworth ignored, placing severe limits on high tax rates. Vickrey proposed 21 tax reforms to make a practical system of personal progressive taxation workable. The two most famous were cumulative lifetime averaging and decreasing power succession taxes. This paper reviews the proposals in light of subsequent intellectual and historical developments. Many of the issues Vickrey explored are relevant today whether the tax system is flat or progressive and whether the base is income or consumption. Distinguished Address presented at the Forty-Seventh International Atlantic Economic Conference, Montreal, Canada, October 7–10, 1999. I especially thank Alan Meltzer for delivering the lecture when I was unable to travel to Montreal.     

Transmigration: looking to the future

The probabilities that the Indonesian government will reach its target of resettling 750,000 families from Java and Bali to other parts of the country during the course of the present development plan (Repelita IV), which extends through 1988-1989, are assessed. Problems encountered in the implementation of previous transmigration programs are reviewed. The author concludes that the government may well decide to focus on quality rather than quantity in the implementation of its transmigration policies.     

日本 冰释前嫌有商机

中日两国是唇齿相依、一衣带水的邻邦。1972年中日实现邦交正常化后，两国关系翻开了新的一页，30多年来中日经贸关系取得了长足发展。2006年双边贸易额已突破2000亿美元大关，达到2074亿美元，34年间扩大了188．5倍。中日两国之间，历史与现实的恩恩怨怨，一直纠葛在一起。而到了小泉纯一郎就任日本首相的阶段，两国关系一度到了冰点。首相安倍晋三力图在外交上有所突破，上任不久就于2006年10月访华，被称为是“破冰”之旅，可惜冰虽已破，却难融，春寒依旧料峭。     

Social Returns to Education: Macro-Evidence

Summary This paper presents new evidence on the social returns to education within a macroeconomic growth regression framework. I use improved schooling data and a macro version of the Mincer relationship between education and wages for individual workers. The results suggest that an increase by one year of the average education level of the labor force would increase labor productivity by 7–10% in the short run and by 11–15% in the long run. Some evidence is found for the presence of dynamic human capital spillovers: the human capital stock increases prospective economic growth. The empirical results are used to quantify the macroeconomic impact of skill upgrading as agreed upon in the European Union’s Lisbon strategy for growth and jobs. Finally, the paper discusses discrepancies between private and social returns to education. I would like to thank two referees, Dinand Webbink, Peter Wobst, and participants of the brown bag lunch seminar series at the Enterprise and Industry Directorate-General of the European Commission for helpful comments. Views expressed are my own, and do not necessarily reflect official positions of the European Commission or the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.     

江阴·拼出"幸福地图"

江阴,地处长江之南,得江河便利.连续多年领跑中国县域经济,2007年全市实现地区生产总值1190.56亿元,高居百强县市GDP排名榜首.依托强大的经济实力,江阴政府又提出要建设"幸福江阴"的新目标,以独特的民本视野,将人的发展放在了第一位.江阴,以前要富有,如今又要幸福,这个城市的政府、企业、居民,究竟是怎样使江阴变做现在这个经济实力强大、人民安居乐业的乐园,希望能借以下一些小小的侧面,管中窥豹,拼出"幸福江阴"的地图.     

百年福特亏转盈

福特2008年第一季财报缴出获利一亿美金的佳绩,赢得投资客青睐,大举加码买进福特股票.其品牌重塑案例可供借鉴. 福特汽车由Henry Ford(1863-1947)创立于1903年,现年105岁,是关国的指标性企业,在100多年的历史中,历经沧桑,皆能化险为夷,屹立车坛至今.享有汽车大王美誉的亨利·福特首创高效装配生产线,人量制造人人买得起的T型车,每10秒钟造出一辆汽午,1913年Model T的产量占全美的一半.自1908年推出至1927年,量产达到1500多万辆;1994年福特在中国成立业务部.     

2009，我们应如何保增长

面对全球性的金融大动荡,2009年我国经济保增长的压力不容忽视.当然,基于支撑中国经济高速发展的有利因素,加上宏观调控政策的推动,保增长问题应该还不是太大.但在保增长中,切忌穿新鞋走老路,保增长勿忘调结构,保增长也不仅仅是保GDP增幅,更重要的是保民生.在化解当前矛盾的同时,为可持续发展奠定扎实的基础.     

技术壁垒:农产品对日出口面临的长期挑战

蔬菜、水产品、禽肉等是我国具有比较优势的农产品,虽然近几年中日贸易稳中有升,但农产品出口却屡屡受挫,主要原因是日本实施的技术壁垒,因此我们应积极探讨有关对策,以突破技术壁垒,扩大农产品出口.     

技术壁垒：农产品对日出口面临酌长期挑战

蔬菜、水产品、禽肉等是我国具有比较优势的农产品，虽然近几年中日贸易稳中有升，但农产品出口却屡屡受挫，主要原因是日本实施的技术壁垒，因此我们应积极探讨有关对策，以突破技术壁垒，扩大农产品出口。     

量变到质变:农村人力资源到人力资本的实现

中国农村人力资源具备量的优势,但质的构成不高。从人力资源到人力资本的实现,实际上是一个量变到质变的过程。本文拟从劳动力素质、市场和资本三方面对人力资本的实现进行探讨。     

中关村之路：变革之路 创新之路

中关村走过的这条路,是不断创新、发展,变化的路.1988年,国务院批准建立中关村科技园区,这是党中央国务院推进经济体制改革的一项重大战略决策.八十年代初,在党的十一届三中全会精神的鼓舞和世界新技术革命浪潮的影响下,中关村一大批科技人员以一往无前的巨大勇气投身科技变革,在中关村地区"下海"创办科技企业.为科技成果商品化和产业化作出了重要贡献,为我国高新技术产业的发展闯出了一条新路.从全国首家民营科技机构,到以"两通"、"两海"为代表的、由众多科技群形成的"中关村电子一条街",再从全国首家科技园区--北京市新技术产业开发试验区,到1999年在此基础上建立的中关村科技园区.如今的中关村已成为世界闻名的"中国硅谷".成为世界高新技术产业发展的战略高地.     

Local Responses to Long-term Unemployment: Delivering Access to Employment in Edinburgh

This paper examines locally developed policy responses to long-term unemployment in the city of Edinburgh: a labour market characterised by relatively low-unemployment and generally high levels of demand. Drawing upon in-depth interviews with 115 long-term unemployed people residing in the city, the paper first analyses the complex combination of barriers to work faced by members of this client group. Two recent labour market initiatives, developed by the local authority in partnership with other public and third sector agencies and (in one case) major employers, are then discussed. It is suggested that this locally focused, partnership-based approach may provide a useful model for local policy responses to long-term unemployment, particularly in buoyant labour markets.     

Correction to: ‘Whatever it takes’ to change belief: evidence from Twitter

Review of World Economics -     

深圳经济特区如何进一步开放——关于“以特别之为，立特区之位”的研究报告

25年来深圳特区走的是一条以开放促改革的发展道路，在深圳提出“以特别之为，立特区之位”的新的发展时期，鉴于深圳在国际经贸关系、区域开放、行业开放等方面还存在进一步开放的空间，深圳今后发展路径仍然离不开“以开放促改革”，其开放重点应放在区域开放方面，进而全面促进城市综合配套改革和政治体制改革，为此，本文提出“建立深港共同市场”、“开展城市综合配套改革试验”和“成为政治体制改革试验特区”三大战略构想。