Populists versus theorists: Futures markets and the volatility of prices

In this paper, the divergence between popular and professional opinion on speculation in general and futures markets in particular is explored. Along the way, a synopsis of prevailing popular attitudes on futures markets is presented, and an outline of a formal model of futures markets and its implications for commodity price volatility are sketched. The heart of the analysis is drawn from the historical record on the establishment and prohibition of futures markets. Briefly, the results presented in this paper strongly suggest that futures markets were associated with—and most likely caused—lower commodity price volatility. The paper concludes with a discussion of potential sources of popular antagonism against futures markets.     

Estimating expected return of corporate bond from equity prices using structural model

Bond rating and yield do not tell investors the expected return they can earn. In this paper, the author uses structural model which provides a link between the credit quality of a firm and the firm＇s economic and financial conditions to estimate the probability of default and the expected return of corporate bond from equity data. The volatility of bond return is also discussed. The purpose of this research is to help bond investors to make more informed investment decision.     

Fundamentals and the volatility of real estate prices in China: A sequential modelling strategy

In a similar way to the stock market, the housing market in China has often been portrayed as highly speculative, giving rise to “bubble” concerns. Over the last decade, residential prices increased every year on average by double digits in Beijing or Shanghai. However many observers and researchers argue that fundamentals of the housing sector, both sector-specific and macroeconomic, may have been the driving force behind housing price volatility. While existing empirical work exclusively relies on the government housing prices which may suffer from the well-documented downward bias, this paper uses original high frequency unit price as well as transaction series for the residential resale housing markets of Beijing and Shanghai between January 2005 and December 2010 to test alternative hypotheses about housing prices volatility.We propose a sequential strategy in five steps integrating several techniques previously developed in a piecemeal and scattered way. First, we construct daily hedonic prices. Second, in order to search for the possible presence of bubbles on such high-frequency data, we propose using recently developed tests of an explosive root as an alternative to the unit root hypothesis. The third step is generated by the necessity of handling microstructure noise present at a daily frequency, thus filtering the raw data to extract a random walk component. The fourth step extracts a slowly changing monthly volatility component from the filtered daily hedonic real estate data. Finally, in so far as the presence of bubbles does not seem to characterize the residential housing market in major Chinese cities, such as Beijing and Shanghai, in a fifth step we show that fundamentals are able to explain slowly changing volatility, as well as transaction volumes in these first‐tier cities.     

A simple model of the theory of money prices

Conclusion The goal of this paper is not to present a comprehensive restatement of the theory of money prices as it developed in the Austrian tradition from Menger to Mises and Rothbard. Rather it is to formulate a heuristic device that facilitates a concise delineation of the theory’s main points and helps in illustrating a few of its major implications. This endeavor is crucial to disseminating the theory to a broader audience and stimulating further interest in refining and advancing it. editor of the Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics     

On the predictability of realized volatility using feasible GLS

This study deals with the out-of-sample predictability of realized volatility induced by implied volatility using FGLS. The original dataset was collected from Bloomberg and includes price and implied volatility indices from the US, Hong Kong, China, South Korea and India. Prices were then transformed into realized volatility indices. The relation between realized and implied volatility is important insofar as market expectations about future turbulence may affect the investor's behavior in advance. However, there are some features of the financial data which turn problematic the choice of the OLS estimator. These features include endogeneity and persistence of the predictor, and also conditional heteroskedasticity of the predicted innovations. Consequently, OLS becomes biased and inefficient. The FGLS estimator accounts for these characteristics and, therefore, performs better than OLS-based estimators, as indicated by many of our results.     

Growth, volatility and stabilisation policy in a DSGE model with nominal rigidities and learning-by-doing

The paper aims to analyse the question of how cyclical fluctuations might affect long run growth. The analysis is based on a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for an imperfectly competitive economy with fully optimising agents. The model is characterized with nominal rigidities, an endogenous technology, and multiple shocks. It predicts either a negative or positive relationship between short run volatility and long run growth depending on the source of shocks and the reaction of the central bank. The model also shows that, even when the negative relationship exits the policy that is designed to stabilise short run volatility may either increase or decrease growth depending on the source of shocks.     

Evaluating the performance of futures hedging using multivariate realized volatility

This paper investigates the performance of a conditional hedging model using the realized covariance measure (RCM) with noisy high-frequency data. We employ a bivariate realized exponential GARCH (BREG) model with some RCMs to estimate conditional optimal hedge ratios in the Japanese stock and futures markets. The bivariate Student’s t-distribution as well as the bivariate normal distribution are used for the return distribution. The out-of-sample results show that the BREG model outperforms the DCC-EGARCH model and the OLS approach using daily returns for a short hedge in the period without unpredictably large fluctuations in returns such as the Lehman aftermath and the economic impact of the Great East Japan Earthquake. The BREG model with a Student’s t-distribution is likely to be superior to that with a normal distribution. The use of RCMs with methods reducing bias induced by microstructure noise and non-synchronous trading improves the performance. We also find that the joint model of returns and RCM such as the BREG model yields better performance for a short hedge than a model in which RCM is included as an exogenous variable.     

A spatial autoregressive stochastic frontier model for panel data incorporating a model of technical inefficiency

By integrating Battese and Coelli’s (1995) model and the spatial autoregressive model (SAR), a spatial autoregressive stochastic frontier model for panel data is developed. The main feature of this frontier model is a spatial lag term of explained variables and the joint structure of a production possibility frontier with a model of technical inefficiency. The model addresses both spatial dependence and heteroskedastic technical inefficiency. This study applies maximum likelihood methods considering the endogenous spatial lag term. The proposed model nests several existing models. Further, an empirical analysis using data on the Japanese manufacturing industry is conducted and the existing models are tested against the proposed model, which is found to be statistically supported. The findings suggest that estimates in the existing spatial and non-spatial models may exhibit bias because of lack of determinants of technical inefficiency, as well as a spatial lag. This bias also affects the technical efficiency score and its ranking.     

The effects of exchange rate trends and volatility on export prices: Industry examples from Japan,Germany, and the United States

Review of World Economics - Die Wirkungen von Trends und Schwankungen der Wechselkurse auf die Exportpreise: Beispiele aus der Industrie Japans, der Bundesrepublik und der Vereinigten Staaten. -...     

Foreign trade,domestic production and relative prices — a simulation model for the United States and Japan

Zusammenfassung Au\enhandel, Inlandsproduktion und relative Preise — Ein Simulationsmodell für die Vereinigten Staaten und Japan. — Der Zweck dieser Abhandlung ist es, die Wirkungen der Au\enhandelsstruktur und der Au\enhandelssalden (sowohl insgesamt als auch bilateral) auf Zusammensetzung und Niveau der Inlandsproduktion sowie die relativen Preise in den Vereinigten Staaten und Japan im Jahr 1960 zu analysieren. Die Studie gründet sich auf ein statisches allgemeines Gleichgewichtsmodell vom Leontief-Typ mit 20 Sektoren und zwei prim?ren Inputs. Der Verfasser versucht folgende zwei Fragen zu beantworten: 1. Wie beeinflu\te der gesamte und der bilaterale Au\enhandel jedes der beiden L?nder die Zusammensetzung ihrer Inlandsproduktion und die Struktur der relativen Preise ? 2. Wie beeinflu\ten die gesamten und die bilateralen Handelsbilanzen der beiden L?nder ihr Konsumniveau und den Einsatz ihrer prim?ren Produktionsfaktoren (bzw. ihre Ersparnis) ?

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Résumé Commerce extérieur, production intérieure et prix relatifs — Un modèle de simulation pour les Etats-Unis et le Japon. — Le but de cet article est d’analyser les effets que la structure et le solde du commerce extérieur (total et bilatéral) exercent aussi bien sur la composition et le niveau de la production intérieure que sur les prix relatifs des Etats-Unis et du Japon dans l’année 1960. Cette étude est basée sur un modèle de l’équilibre général et statique du type Leontief à vingt secteurs et deux inputs primaires. L’auteur essaye à répondre à deux questions: 1ℴ Comment le commerce extérieur (total et bilatéral) de chaque pays a-t-il influencé la composition de la production intérieure et la structure des prix relatifs ? 2ℴ Comment le solde du commerce extérieur (total et bilatéral) de chaque pays a-t-il influencé le niveau de la consommation et l’utilisation des inputs primaires (ou l’épargne) ?

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Resumen Comercio exterior, producción interna y precios relativos — Un modelo de simulación para los Estados Unidos de América y Japón. — El propósito de este modelo es analizar los efectos de la estructura y los Saldos del comercio exterior (total y bilateral) sobre la compositión y el nivel de la producción interna como sobre los precios relativos en los Estados Unidos y Japón para 1960. El estudio se basa sobre un modelo de equilibrio general estático del tipo Leontief con veinte sectores y dos inputs primarios. El autor trata de contestar las siguientes preguntas: (1) ? de qué manera influyeron el comercio total y bilateral de estos dos países sobre la composición de la producción interna y la estructura de los precios relativos ? (2) ? de qué manera afectaron los saldos totales y bilaterales de comercio exterior de los dos países sus niveles de consumo agregado y el uso de factores primarios (o ahorro) ?

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Riassunto Commercio estero, produzione interna e prezzi relativi — Un modello di simulazione per gli Stati Uniti ed il Giappone. — Lo scopo di questo lavoro è di analizzare gli effetti della struttura del commercio estero e dei saldi del commercio estero (tanto complessivamente quanto bilateralmente) su composizione e livello della produzione interna come anche i prezzi relativi negli Stati Uniti e Giappone nell’anno 1960. Lo studio si fonda su un modello generale di equilibrio statico del tipo Leontief con venti settori e venti input primari. L’autore cerca di rispondere alle due domande seguenti: 1. Come il commercio estero totale e bilaterale di ognuno dei due Paesi influenzó la composizione della loro produzione interna e la struttura dei relativi prezzi ? 2. Come le bilance commerciali totali e bilaterali dei due Paesi influenzarono il loro livello di consumo e l’impiego dei loro fattori primari di produzione (risp. i loro risparmi) ?

     

A predictive model of economic dynamics during stagflation taking into account the volatility of the national currency

This paper considers the mathematical model of economic dynamics under the conditions of stagflation, which was previously developed by the authors and is now generalized for the case of the volatility of the national currency due to the volatility of oil prices. The model is used for the medium-term forecast of economic development in Russia up to 2020.     

Dynamic simulations on overshooting of flexible commodity prices with a modified arbitrage condition

Applying a Neo‐Keynesian approach, this study investigates whether in the short run flexible commodity prices overshoot their long‐run equilibrium whenever there is a monetary change. Two differential equations are generated depicting the adjustment paths for commodity prices and prices of manufactures. With a modified arbitrage condition that incorporates convenience yield, flexible commodity prices are shown to overshoot their long‐run equilibrium when compared with less‐flexible prices of manufactured goods. Simulation results support the breakdown of money neutrality in the short run. Inflation rate and degree of rigidity of prices of manufactures are shown to have a significant effect on the adjustment paths. Convenience yield did not influence the adjustment mechanism.     

Accession to the euro-area: a stylized analysis using a NK model

This paper analyses the accession to the euro-area by new members using a stylized new-Keynesian model. We analyze macroeconomic adjustment in the pre- and post-accession case and calculate welfare in both situations to obtain net benefit/loss from accession. It is shown how the effects of accession is related to the conduct of monetary policy and fiscal policy in the pre- and post-accession case. The simulation examples point at the potential costs that accession might entail due its consequences on monetary and fiscal policy design. These consequences from accession in terms of macroeconomic stabilization ability of monetary and fiscal policies have not always been fully acknowledged and may need more attention.     

A random coefficient model of speculative attacks: The case of the Mexican peso

A considerable body of theoretical and empirical literature has developed seeking to explain the timing, magnitude, and mechanics of speculative attacks against currencies. This paper extends the empirical specification of the traditional speculative attack model by developing a random coefficient (RC) model which, as we show, encompasses a variety of fixed-coefficient models as special cases. Two classes of models (fixed- and random-coefficient models) are estimated for the case of Mexican peso over the period January 1988 to Novemeber 1994, while forecasts of the peso/U.S. dollar exchange rate are generated for the period December 1994 through December 1995. The comparison of forecast errors generated by five model specifications indicates that forecasts based on the RC procedures are superior to those based on the fixed-coefficient estimation. It is also shown that there are good theoretical reasons why the RC procedure performs better in prediction than the fixed-coefficient procedure.     

Stock prices and the efficient market hypothesis: Evidence from a panel stationary test with structural breaks

This paper investigates whether the efficient market hypothesis holds in stock markets under different economic development levels over the period January 1999 to May 2007. We employ a state-of-the-art panel data stationarity test which incorporates multiple structural breaks. Evidence indicates that when accommodating general forms of cross-sectional dependence as well as controlling for finite-sample bias, the real stock price series appear to be stationary in 32 developed and 26 developing countries, respectively, which is in sharp contrast to the findings in the existing literature. Thus, real stock price indices are stationary processes that are inconsistent with the efficient market hypothesis. This shows the presence of profitable arbitrage opportunities among stock markets. According to these estimated structural breakpoints, we are also able to discover the reason for why there has been a huge impact from past stock prices.     

On the implications of monetary rules in a stochastic framework

Zusammenfassung über die Bedeutung von geldpolitischen Regeln in einem stochastischen Modell. — Der Zweck dieses Aufsatzes ist es, die Bedeutung alternativer geldpolitischer Regeln in einem vereinfachten monetaristischen Modell einer geschlossenen Volkswirtschaft zu untersuchen. Im Gegensatz zu früheren Arbeiten werden zuf?llige St?rungen ausdrücklich in die Verhaltensgleichungen eingebaut. Daraus ergibt sich u. a.: (i) Wenn die Beh?rden versuchen, die Varianz der Produktions?nderungen zu minimieren, dann wird die Varianz der Inflation unendlich, und zwar unabh?ngig davon, ob es eine langfristige Wechselbeziehung zwischen realen und monet?ren Variablen gibt oder nicht. (ii) Wenn die Beh?rden eine Politik der gleichbleibenden monet?ren Expansion in adaptiver Weise verfolgen, ist es zweifelhaft, ob die Varianz des Outputs die der Inflation übersteigen wird. (iii) Die Varianz der Inflation wird in diesem Rahmen nicht durch Reaktionen der Erwartungen auf die gegenw?rtige Inflation beeinfluΒt und ist um so niedriger, je gr?Βer die Geldillusion ist. (iv) Die Reaktion der Inflationsvarianz auf die Einkommenselastizit?t der Nachfrage nach Geld und die Neigung der Phillips-Kurve k?nnen nicht zuverl?ssig vorhergesagt werden. (v) Bei Geldillusion und rationalen Erwartungen führt die Minimierung der Varianz des Outputs zu einer unendlichen Varianz der Inflation.

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Résumé Sur les implications d’une politique des règles monétaires dans un cadre stochastique. — Le but de cet article est d’analyser les implications des règles alternatives monétaires dans un modèle monétariste stylisé d’une économie fermée. En contraste avec des études précédentes nous introduisons expressément des perturbations aléatoires dans les équations de comportement. Parmi les résultats étaient: (i) si Ies autorités essaient de minimiser la variance du changement d’output la variance d’inflation sera infinie égard pour la question s’il y a ou s’il n’y a pas un conflit à long terme entre des variables réelles et monétaires, (ii) si les autorités poursuivent une politique de l’expansion constante monétaire dans le cadre adaptif il est ambigu si la variance d’output excédera celle de l’inflation, (iii) la variance d’inflation dans un tel cadre n’est pas influencée par la réponse des expectatives à l’inflation courante et est plus basse si la dimension d’illusion de monnaie est plus grande, (iv) la réponse de la variance d’inflation à l’élasticité de revenu de la demande pour la monnaie et l’inclinaison de la courbe de Phillips ne peuvent pas être prédites sans ambigu?té, (v) en cas de l’illusion de monnaie et des expectatives rationelles, la minimisation de la variance d’output conduit à une variance infinie d’inflation.

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Resumen Sobre las inferencias de reglas monetarias en un marco estocástico. — El propósito de este artículo es investigar las inferencias de reglas monetarias alternativas en un modelo monetarista estilizado de una economía cerrada. Contrario a trabajos anteriores se introducen explícitamente perturbaciones aleatorias en las ecuaciones de comportamiento. Entre los resultados se encontró que: (i) si las autoridades tratan de minimizar la varianza del cambio en el producto la varianza de la inflación será infinita, independientemente de si existe un ?trade-off? a largo plazo entre las variables reales y monetarias, (ii) si las autoridades persiguen una política de expansión monetaria constante en el marco adaptable, es ambiguo si la varianza del producto excédera la de la inflación, (iii) la varianza de la inflación no es influenciada en ese marco por la respuesta a expectativas de inflación corriente y es menor mientras mayor sea el efecto de ilusión monetaria, (iv) la respuesta de la varianza de la inflación frente a la elasticidad-ingreso de la demanda por dinero y la pendiente de la curva de Phillips no se puede predecir sin ambigüedades, (v) en el caso de ilusión monetaria y expectativas racionales, la minimización de la varianza del producto lleva a una varianza infinita de la inflación.

     

National economic forecasting at local level: Applications of the Cambridge model in the West Midlands

The pioneering local economic strategies developed by the GLC and Metropolitan County Councils prior to their abolition in March 1986 frequently drew upon comprehensive research and analysis. The West Midlands County Council was the only local authority using forecasts derived from a national economic model as an input to research for local economic development. This article discusses the West Midlands' experience in using forecasts derived from Cambridge Econometrics' model of the UK economy for sectoral analysis, strategic land-use planning and evaluation of the regional impact of national economic policies.     

Building and using nonlinear simulations in Excel with an application to the specific factors model

Excel simulation models have become increasingly common in the economics classroom, as their ability to combine numerical and graphical information has proved a useful support to traditional teaching methods. Recent efforts have tended to embed the solution within the Excel sheet, avoiding the need to use the Solver add-in and allowing changes in the exogenous characteristics of the model to be instantly reflected in the numerical solutions and any associated geometry. While this is quite simple in small-scale linear models, it is less straightforward in larger nonlinear models such as those that dominate the theory of international trade. We discuss various methods that can be used in building Excel simulations when it is not possible to solve the underlying model explicitly. We illustrate the ideas and describe our experiences along with a new simulation of the specific factors model.     

Assessing the economic impacts of the EU-Singapore FTA with a dynamic general equilibrium model

Negotiations for the EU-Singapore FTA were concluded on December 6, 2012. Given that this is the EU’s first FTA with an ASEAN member country and the second one with a major Asian trading partner after the conclusion of the EU-Korea FTA, this agreement paves the way for future FTAs with countries in the region. The goal of this paper is to quantify the economic impacts of the EU-Singapore FTA using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. The resutls estimated in this paper suggest that the bilateral reduction of tariff and non-tariff barriers brings benefits for both sides: Singapore GDP is expected to increase by € 2.7 billion whereas the EU gains are assessed at € 550 million. In addition, EU exports to Singapore would rise by some € 1.4 billion and Singapore’s exports to the EU by some € 3.5 billion. In a complementary scenario, the current paper also assesses the value of this FTA as an insurance policy against any hypothetical tariffs hikes in Singapore to WTO bound levels. In such a “worst case” scenario, the EU-Singapore FTA will protect EU GDP from a decrease of € 350 million and prevents a loss of € 3.7 billion EU exports to Singapore.