Demand for international reserves and exchange-rate intervention policy in an adjustable-peg economy

This paper develops and estimates a model of the joint determination of the official and black-market exchange rates, private and government demand for international reserves, and the rate of inflation under an adjustable-peg system. The framework presented combines and extends aspects of the monetary approach to the balance of payments and exchange-rate determination with the theory of the demand for international reserves. The role of expectations about devaluation is taken into account. The model is estimated by full-information maximum likelihood on the basis of quarterly data for Turkey.     

Dual transfer pricing with internal and external trade

This paper examines a transfer pricing problem between two divisions of a decentralized firm. The selling division is privately informed about its own costs and produces a good that is sold both externally in an intermediate market and internally within the firm. Unlike most previous work, we focus on dual transfer pricing systems that allow the selling division to be credited for an amount that differs from the amount charged to the buying division. We identify conditions under which efficient decentralized trade and external price setting incentives can be provided with a properly chosen set of dual transfer prices that do not rely on direct communication. Instead, the optimal dual transfer prices will depend only on public information about the market price charged by the upstream division in the external market, which indirectly communicates information about production costs to the downstream division. For a variety of well-known demand functions, the optimal transfer prices will be linear functions of the market price. Our main results hold when the upstream division faces multiple internal buyers or faces a binding capacity constraint.     

Effective protection and exchange-rate determination

Considerable research interest has entered on the implications for exchange-rate determination of fluctuations in intermediate goods prices ang changes in tariff protection. This paper draws together the strands of this literature by examining the role of effective protection in exchange rate determination. A disaggregated portfolio balance model of the open economy is used to analyze the determination of real and nominal exchange rates in the presence of rational expectations. Additionally, it is used to explore the implications for resource allocation of changes in the effective rate of protection in a country capable of influencing its terms of trade.     

Semi-rational expectations and exchange-rate dynamics

The Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH) asserts that, on average, the economic agents are accurate in predicting future economic developments. The paper demonstrates, however, that in a world of costly information, individual rationality may result in consistent and persistent forecasting biases. A distinction is drawn between perfect foresight or efficient forecasting—which is consistent with the REH—and myopic perfect foresight—which is the profit maximizing, and thus the rational one from an individualistic point of view, even though the latter may result in persistently biased forecasting. These concepts are illustrated in a model of exchange rate dynamics which introduces myopic or ‘semi’ rationality into Dornbusch's familiar model.     

High exchange-rate volatility and low pass-through

Two specifications of an open-economy model are shown to generate high exchange-rate volatility and low exchange-rate pass-through (ERPT). In the model, price discrimination causes ERPT to be incomplete in both the short and the long run. In the short run, a small amount of nominal rigidities is enough to reduce ERPT sharply; still, exchange-rate depreciation worsens the terms of trade, consistent with the evidence. Possible biases from omitted variables and measurement error in the ERPT empirical literature (due to data limitations) are investigated using model-generated time series. Estimates of ERPT coefficients can be quite different from true parameters, and are sensitive to the shocks driving the economies. Estimates can nonetheless detect key structural features of the models.     

Shibor与货币市场利率体系的关系初探

Shibor的推出对于完善货币市场利率体系具有很重要的作用。文章探讨了自Shibor推出以来,其与货币市场其他利率之间的关系;重点采用相关性分析、协整检验、因果检验等数量分析方法,确定了决定Shibor利率水平变动的货币市场因素,通过建立模型初步研究了这些因素对Shibor利率曲线结构的影响,并提出相应建议。     

Assessing emerging issues. The external and internal approach

This article analyses emerging issues trying to find elements to assess the possibility that they become a relevant trend in the future using a twofold perspective for that purpose. On the one hand it considers the external approach, that is, the analysis of visible signals linked to the emerging issues that in an early stage are called “weak signals”. On the other hand, it tries to study emerging issues taking into account their internal motivations. In this case the aim is to value the social, economic or other kind of reasons that are hidden under emerging issues. A post-structuralism perspective (CLA, causal layered analysis) is used to address this objective.This double approach allows to consider emerging issues in a holistic way, taking into account what is visible and what is not so apparent. In order to offer conclusions and results a real use case is included analyzing the emerging issues showed in the report “Informe de la Sociedad de la Información 2013” (one of the references about information society situation and ICT trends in Spain).     

突出内审优势 推进审计转型积极搭建内部审计和外部审计监督的科学平台

今年初,中国农业银行股份制有限公司一成立,总行党委就确立了董事会领导下的内部审计监督模式,在分离了原有部分操作层面的审计职能后,赋予了农行内部审计更高的独立性、权威性与超脱性,以确保内部审计职能的充分有效发挥,这是完善公司治理机制的重要举措。这种建立在董事会领导下的内部审计模式,是以系统化、规范化、制度化的方法对风险管理、控制及治理程序进行监督评价,为农行股改后提高运作效率,增加价值,促进各项业务健康有序、持续发展提供监督保障。     

以Shibor为契机完善中国货币市场利率体系

该文首先介绍了中国货币市场利率体系的现状,进而分析了Shibor对中国货币市场利率体系的影响,认为Shibor在中国利率市场化进程中处于核心地位,应加快金融产品创新、夯实Shibor构建基础、加快Shibor的发展,进一步完善中国货币市场的利率体系。     

Interest-only and principal-only mortgage strips as interest-rate contingent claims

Interest-only (IO) and principal-only (PO) mortgage strips are valued in a stochastic interest-rate environment. The prepayment rate of the underlying mortgages is affected by two considerations not present in the pure financially rational model: (1) The property owner's holding period is assumed to follow a Gamma distribution, resulting in the possibility of prepayment due to the sale of the property (i.e., prepayment that is too early based on market interest rates); and (2) borrowers are assumed to face heterogeneous transaction costs related to refinancing the existing mortgage, and delay refinancing when market conditions make it optimal to do so (refinancing too late). Properties of IO/PO strips are identified by the finite difference method.     

Analysis of drawdowns and drawups in the US$ interest-rate market

Abstract

By analysing a large data set of daily returns with the maximum likelihood data clustering technique, we identify economic sectors as clusters of assets with a similar economic dynamics. The sector size distribution follows Zipf's law. Secondly, we find that patterns of daily market-wide economic activity cluster into classes that can be identified with market states. The distribution of frequencies of market states shows scale-free properties and the memory of the market state process extends to long times (～50 days). Assets in the same sector behave similarly across states. We characterize market efficiency by analysing the market's predictability and find that the market is indeed close to being efficient. We find evidence of the existence of a dynamic pattern after the market's crashes.     

Efficiency and a simple model of exchange-rate determination

A monetary model has no intrinsic dynamics so the intertemporal behavior of exchange rates, spot and forward, depend entirely upon the time processes of the exogenous variables. For typical values of interest elasticities of money demand, only if all shocks are permanent do exchange rates follow random walks.Recently, changes in relative outputs and money supplies in the Canadian–US context have evidenced serial correlation so that shocks are not exclusively permanent ones. None the less, exchange rates have followed a random walk. This suggests that the monetary model is an inappropriate specification and that models which pay attention to the choice of currency of denomination deserve greater attention.     

International risk sharing and the choice of exchange-rate regime

This paper examines the argument that the fixed exchange-rate regime should be preferred to the flexible rate regime because the former allows risk sharing across countries while the latter does not. The analysis is performed in a two-country overlapping generations model, where markets are incomplete under all exchange regimes. It is shown that risks are pooled across countries when the equilibrium exchange rate is constant across states of nature, which arises under the fixed rate regime with or without capital restriction, and under the flexible rate regime without capital restriction. Risks are not pooled across countries when the equilibrium exchange rate is different across states of nature, which arises under the flexible rate regime with capital restriction. But in a model with incomplete markets, the ability to share risk across countries in the regimes with constant exchange rates does not necessarily lead to higher welfare than the inability to share risk in the regime with random exchange rates.     

Dynamic internal control performance over financial reporting and external financing

In this paper, we present a theoretical model and empirical evidence on the effects of dynamic internal control performance on external financing choices of a company. Using both within-sample and difference-in-difference analysis, we find that after issuing internal control weakness (i.e. ICW) reports under SOX 404, the ICW companies rely more on debt financing and less on equity financing than in previous periods. This effect is more pronounced for the companies with low ex ante probability of internal control weakness. In addition, we show that after correcting the previously reported ICWs, these ICW companies rely more on equity as opposed to debt financing. This result is more pronounced for smaller companies. Our findings suggest that increased (decreased) information asymmetry induced by ineffective (effective) internal control over financial reporting leads a company to follow specific external financing choices to meet its financial deficits.     

Solving an asset pricing model with hybrid internal and external habits,and autocorrelated Gaussian shocks

We derive an explicit formula for the price-dividend ratio of a generalized version of Abel’s asset pricing model. This model is generalized in two ways: first, consumption (dividend) growth is assumed to be an AR(1) process subject to Gaussian random shocks, and second, the investor’s preferences are allowed to be a convex combination of internal and external habits. With an internal habit weight, 50%, and a coefficient of risk aversion, 3.25, simulation results match the historic US equity premium and risk free interest rate.      

Trade flow lags, monetary and fiscal policy, and exchange-rate overshooting

In this paper model a is constructed that combines trade slow lags with the model in the appendix to Dornbusch's seminal paper on exchange-rate dynamics. Here output is free to vary and inflation is determined by a simple Phillips curve mechanism. It turns out that, because of the trade slow lags, monetary expansion causes interest rates to decline, but the exchange rate need not oveshoot, as one would expect; whereas fiscal policy always produces overshooting. It follows that monetary policy may be a less important source of exchange-rate variability than is commonly believed, and fiscal policy more important.     

Domestic and foreign disturbances in an optimizing model of exchange-rate determination

This paper analyzes the effects of various disturbances of domestic and foreign origin in a small open economy under imperfect capital mobility in which the behavioral relationships are divided from optimization by the private sector. In this model the domestic economy jumps instantaneously to its new equilibrium following a change in either the domestic monetary growth rate or domestic fiscal policy. In response to a disturbance in either the foreign interest rate or inflation rate, the economy undergoes an initial partial jump towards its new equilibrium, which it thereafter approaches gradually. The implications of these results for exchange-rate adjustments and the insulation properties of flexible exchange rates are discussed.