Is the sticky price assumption reasonable for exchange rate models?

The testable implications of sticky price exchange rate models are discussed. The empirical examples suggest that the predetermined or sticky price assumption employed in recent asset models of exchange rate determination appears to be appropriate for Germany, Japan, the United States, and the United Kingdom.     

Floating exchange rates,expectations and new information

This paper analyzes the relationship between forward exchange rates, future spot rates and new information. A stochastic model of exchange rate determination is used to formally show how unanticipated changes in the exchange rate determinants (or ‘news’) affect the spot rate. The empirical analysis indicates that ‘new information’ plays an important role in explaining the market forecasting error, or difference between the spot rate and the forward rate, determined in the previous period.     

Predicting white metal prices by a commodity sensitive exchange rate

We show that the exchange rate of South African Rand has statistically and economically significant out of sample forecasting power for palladium and platinum prices, and to a lesser extent for silver prices. We argue that this finding is consistent with the implications of the present value models of exchange rate determination. We utilize a recently developed method for testing for instabilities in predictive power, which markedly affects overall conclusions. For the palladium market, the predictive power is also robust to using cross exchange rates. Importantly, no reverse causality is detected from white metals to the exchange rate. We also employ asymmetric impulse response functions and show that positive and negative exchange rate shocks do not have materially different impacts on white metals.     

Changing Monetary Policy Rules, Learning, and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics

When the exchange rate is priced by uncovered interest parity and central banks set nominal interest rates according to a reaction function such as the Taylor rule, the real exchange rate will be determined by expected inflation and the output gap or the unemployment gap of the home and foreign countries. This paper examines the implications of these Taylor rule fundamentals for real exchange rate determination. Because the true parameters in central bank policy rules are unknown to the public and change over time, the model is presented in the context of a least squares learning environment. This simple learning model captures the volatility and the major swings in the real deutschemark/euro–dollar exchange rate from 1976 to 2007.     

双边出口全球价值链实际有效汇率弹性理论测度及解析

近年来,汇率与出口弱相关现象引起理论界和实务界的广泛关注。本文通过考虑全球价值链带来的供给侧联系和第三国汇率效应,使用双边出口全球价值链实际有效汇率弹性指标对双边层面的相对价格竞争力与出口关系作出新的测度和结构贡献度分解。研究发现,对相对价格竞争力与出口关系修正后测度的双边出口全球价值链实际有效汇率弹性值显著为负。出口对修正的汇率变动依旧富有弹性。“汇率对出口影响弱化”并没有传统实际有效汇率和双边汇率表现的那么严重,更没有出现“贬值抑制出口”等不符合理论预期的反常情况。双边出口全球价值链实际有效汇率弹性结构分解贡献度结果显示,伴随我国在全球价值链中参与度和地位的提升,中国对主要贸易伙伴出口中由相对价格变动引起中间产品结构变动对总弹性的贡献度不断提升。     

Are US-Dollar-Hedged-ETF investors aggressive on exchange rates? A panel VAR approach

Exchange traded funds (ETFs) are a multi-trillion dollar market that epitomizes financialization due to its recent growth. This study examines the behavior of U.S. listed currency hedged ETF investors towards changes in the underlying benchmark and foreign exchange rate from July 2011 to November 2015 using a panel VAR approach. We find that investors are able to anticipate changes in future exchange rates and invest in currency hedged ETFs prior to changes. Granger-causality tests confirm that these investors proactively trade before large real exchange rate movements. These results suggest that the use of financial instruments such as ETFs to hedge against exchange rate volatility may have itself become a source of volatility, which have implications for the further financialization of the ETF industry.     

Debt thresholds and real exchange rates: An emerging markets perspective

In this paper we empirically analyze nonlinearities in short-run real exchange rate dynamics. Our findings suggest that real exchange rate misalignments are considerably less persistent and more volatile during times of high debt. Assessing the variance of changes in misalignments, we retrieve evidence indicating that the nominal exchange rate and inflation differentials are more important determinants in states of high debt than in states of low debt. Overall, our results imply that nonlinearities have non-negligible implications for the mechanics of real exchange rate adjustment in emerging markets.     

Foreign exchange pricing under free floating versus admissible band regimes

In this paper contingent price theory is used to infer the fair present value of the future effective spot rate under free float and alternative permissible band regimes. It is shown that a given term structure cannot at the same time bring about an equilibrium in both controlled and free exchange markets. A controlled exchange rate is proven to be less sensitive to changes in expectations about the future effective spot rate than a freely floating rate, whereas the interest rate change needed to offset such a shift is smaller. It is inferred that under an admissible band regime, the effective control limits on the current spot rate can differ significanly from the government's declared intervention points.     

Exchange Rate Exposure at the Firm and Industry Level

Previous work on the exposure of firms to exchange rate risk has primarily focused on U.S. firms and, surprisingly, found stock returns were not significantly affected by exchange‐rate fluctuations. The equity market premium for exposure to currency risk was also found to be insignificant. In this paper we examine the relation between Japanese stock returns and unanticipated exchange‐rate changes for 1,079 firms traded on the Tokyo stock exchange over the 1975–1995 period. Second, we investigate whether exchange‐rate risk is priced in the Japanese equity market using both unconditional and conditional multifactor asset pricing testing procedures. We find a significant relation between contemporaneous stock returns and unanticipated yen fluctuations. The exposure effect on multinationals and high‐exporting firms, however, is found to be greater in comparison to low‐exporting and domestic firms. Lagged‐exchange rate changes on firm value are found to be statistically insignificant implying that investors are able to assess the impact of exchange‐rate changes on firm value with no significant delay. The industry level analysis corroborates the cross‐sectional findings for Japanese firms in that they are sensitive to contemporaneous unexpected exchange‐rate fluctuations. The co‐movement between stock returns and changes in the foreign value of the yen is found to be positively associated with the degree of the firm's foreign economic involvement and inversely related to its size and debt to asset ratio. Asset pricing tests show that currency risk is priced. We find corroborating evidence in support of the view that currency exposure is time varying. Our results indicate that the foreign exchange‐rate risk premium is a significant component of Japanese stock returns. The combined evidence from the currency exposure and asset pricing analyses, suggests that currency risk is priced and, therefoe, has implications for corporate and portfolio managers.     

Prolonged Reserves Accumulation,Credit Booms,Asset Prices and Monetary Policy in Asia

This article examines past evidence of prolonged periods of foreign exchange reserves accumulation in the Asia-Pacific region. Several proxies for this unobserved variable are considered, including a newly proposed one based on a factor model. We focus on identifying periods of prolonged interventions and identify its key macro-financial determinants. Two broad conclusions emerge from the stylized facts and the econometric evidence. First, the best protection against costly reserves accumulation is a more flexible exchange rate. Second, the necessity to accumulate reserves as a bulwark against goods price inflation is misplaced. Instead, there is a strong link between asset price movements and the likelihood of accumulating foreign exchange reserves that are costly. Policy implications are also drawn.     

Exchange rate dynamics under alternative optimal interest rate rules

We explore the role of interest rate policy in the exchange rate determination process. Specifically, we derive exchange rate equations from interest rate rules that are theoretically optimal under a few alternative settings. The exchange rate equation depends on its underlying interest rule and its performance could vary across evaluation criteria and sample periods. The exchange rate equation implied by the interest rate rule that allows for interest rate and inflation inertia under commitment offers some encouraging results — exchange rate changes “calibrated” from the equation have a positive and significant correlation with actual data, and offer good direction of change prediction. Our exercise also demonstrates the role of the foreign exchange risk premium in determining exchange rates and the difficulty of explaining exchange rate variability using only policy based fundamentals.     

An exploration of the forward premium puzzle in currency markets

A standard empirical finding is that expected changes in exchangerates and interest rate differentials across countries are negativelyrelated, implying that uncovered interest rate parity is violatedin the data. This article provides new empirical evidence thatsuggests that violations of uncovered interest rate parity,and its economic implications, depend on the sign of the interestrate differential. A framework related to term structure modelsis developed to account for the puzzling relationship betweenexpected changes in exchange rates and interest rate differentials.Estimation results suggest that a particular term structuremodel can account for the puzzling empirical evidence.     

贸易保护对汇率的影响——基于资本流动性及汇率收敛视角

对资本开放程度及汇率收敛度进行分类的框架下,考察贸易保护对汇率的影响。研究发现：在不同分类的国家,同样提升关税,对名义汇率的影响不尽相同;在汇率收敛的国家,提升关税会伴随资本控制程度降低而会导致名义汇率升值;在汇率不收敛情况下,提升关税会伴随资本控制程度降低而导致名义汇率贬值;从升值角度向绝对收敛状态转移时,低资本控制度及汇率收敛使汇率收敛度越接近于绝对收敛,在关税上升情况下会加剧名义汇率升值。使用动态系统GMM模型对66个国家2000-2014年样本数据进行实证分析,有力支撑了理论分析的结果。同时,对非关税措施进行实证分析,得出一般情况下贸易保护政策的确会造成汇率的升值,该结果在一般情况下是稳健的。     

人民币实际汇率波动的价格传递效应研究——基于贸易收支的视角

自2005年汇率制度改革以来,人民币汇率发生了深刻的变化。文章使用2005年-2013年间的月度数据,通过建立计量模型,以人民币实际有效汇率和实际收入水平为解释变量,进出口贸易额为被解释变量,实证分析了人民币汇率变动对我国贸易收支的影响。研究结果表明,人民币汇率变动与进出口贸易额和实际收入水平具有长期的协整关系,而且人民币实际有效汇率对进出口贸易额的影响只存在统计上的单项因果关系。     

Exchange rate dynamics under alternative optimal interest rate rules

We explore the role of interest rate policy in the exchange rate determination process. Specifically, we derive exchange rate equations from interest rate rules that are theoretically optimal under a few alternative settings. The exchange rate equation depends on its underlying interest rule and its performance could vary across evaluation criteria and sample periods. The exchange rate equation implied by the interest rate rule that allows for interest rate and inflation inertia under commitment offers some encouraging results — exchange rate changes “calibrated” from the equation have a positive and significant correlation with actual data, and offer good direction of change prediction. Our exercise also demonstrates the role of the foreign exchange risk premium in determining exchange rates and the difficulty of explaining exchange rate variability using only policy based fundamentals.     

Exchange rate bubbles: Fundamental value estimation and rational expectations test

We propose a model of periodically collapsing bubbles which extends the Van Norden (1996) model, and nests it, by considering a non-linear specification for the bubble size in the survival regime, and the endogenous determination of the level of the fundamental value of the stochastic process. They allow us to test for rationality in the formation of expectations, and remove the arbitrariness of exogenously setting the level of the fundamental value. This general model is applied to the exchange rate of the Brazilian real to the US dollar from March 1999 to February 2011. The futures market exchange rate is used as a proxy of its expected future value, and three different structural models are considered for the determination of the fundamental value. The first two imply that the exchange rate satisfies either purchasing power parity (PPP), or a modified version of it. The third structural model is a version of the monetary model of exchange rate determination, fitted to the period under consideration. We obtain the maximum likelihood estimate of the parameters of the models, explore the properties of the errors, test its restricted versions, and compare the three specifications for the fundamental. We find that the models we propose fit well the data, and are useful in the heuristic interpretation of the exchange rate movements of the period. Finally we select the structural models that display the best performance, according to several criteria.     

Time-varying risk attitude and the foreign exchange market behavior

This paper presents a heterogeneous agents model of the foreign exchange market in which agents’ risk attitudes vary over time due to psychological factors emphasized in prospect theory. We find that psychological component and risk-profit elasticity play significant roles in exchange rate expectations formation and investment behavior. Although all agents show more risk-averse after the crisis, the extent to which their risk attitude responds to the crisis varies due to heterogeneous forecasting rules as well as the changes of trading environment and central bank intervention. Moreover, time-varying risk attitudes can help explain the forward premium puzzle. These findings have implications for the exchange rate expectation formation theories and foreign exchange market stability policies.     

International order flows: Explaining equity and exchange rate returns

Macroeconomic models of equity and exchange rate returns perform poorly at high frequencies. The proportion of daily returns that these models explain is essentially zero. Instead of relying on macroeconomic determinants, we model equity price and exchange rate behavior based on a concept from microstructure–order flow. The international order flows are derived from belief changes of different investor groups in a two-country setting. We obtain a structural relationship between equity returns, exchange rate returns and their relationship to home and foreign equity market order flow. To test the model we construct daily aggregate order flow data from 800 million equity trades in the U.S. and France from 1999 to 2003. Almost 60% of the daily returns in the S&P100 index are explained jointly by exchange rate returns and aggregate order flows in both markets. As predicted by the model, daily exchange rate returns and order flow into the French market have significant incremental explanatory power for the daily S&P returns. The model implications are also validated for intraday returns.     

Exchange rate pass-through into import prices revisited: What drives it?

A large sample of developed and emerging economies is utilized to investigate import exchange rate pass-through. Panel models reveal that various economic aspects of the destination country can explain about one third of the total variation in pass-through elasticities and the remaining variation comes largely in the form of unobserved country-specific effects. Inflation, exchange rate volatility, openness and relative wealth play a clear role as drivers of emerging markets’ pass-through whereas the output gap and protectionism appear influential more generally. Nonlinearity regarding large-versus-small changes in the exchange rate is quite pervasive. Our evidence challenges the widely-held view that pass-through has been universally falling in developed markets and that it is higher for emerging markets. The economic drivers are shown to play a role as out-of-sample predictors of pass-through. The findings confirm pricing-to-market theories and have implications for the optimal conduct of monetary policy.     

民币对美元日汇率决定模型研究

基于汇率决定理论的最新研究进展．本文分析了人民币对美元日汇率的影响因素。研究发现,宏观经济新闻、外汇市场微观因素买卖价差是人民币对美元日汇率的重要影响因素,而中美相对利率并不是人民币对美元日汇率的影响因素。进一步,本文将随机游走模型、新闻变量以及外汇市场微观因素结合起来,构建了人民币对美元日汇率决定理论模型。实证研究发现,人民币对美元日汇率由自身滞后值、中国经济活动方面的新闻和零售市场买卖价差决定。