Distressed comps

We consider the use and impact of distressed properties as comparables in residential appraisals. First, we describe the incidence of their use and their relative comparability; second, we estimate their impact on the appraisal value itself; and third, we consider their impact on the probability that the appraisal is below the proposed transaction price. We find, generally, that distressed comps are largely good matches to their subject properties, which suggests that they are not necessarily used as a last resort. We find that they are not a drag on appraised value because appraisers learn to make the right adjustments over time. The use of distressed comps is associated with a higher probability of a below-price appraisal due to the increased spread of appraisals around the contract price, particularly for higher priced homes. Overall, the use of distressed comps increased the uncertainty in the valuation process, but appraisers learned the appropriate adjustments over time.     

The Gatekeeper Appraiser's Role in an Era of Higher Energy Prices*

This article discusses the notion of gatekeeper, or opinion leader, appraisers. Because these appraisers are instrumental in disseminating information to other appraisers they are very influential in shaping appraisal practices. A sample of 763 appraisers is used to identify these gatekeepers and to examine their appraisal practices relative to other appraisers. Differences are noted between opinion leaders and non-opinion leaders in the importance attached to and in the use of energy conservation components of real property in appraisals.     

Appraisers and Valuation Bias: An Empirical Analysis

Using appraisals from a lender across the 2005–2006 period, we find that the association between appraisers’ valuation inflation patterns and work volume varies across states. Moreover, we find a considerable occupational exit for appraisers, and provide evidence that appraisers, as applicants, did not receive better loan pricing compared with the population of applicants. Overall, this article offers novel insights concerning the political economy of financial regulation through the lens of a specific profession.     

Valuation Bias in Commercial Appraisal: A Transaction Price Feedback Experiment

Experiments were conducted to test the hypothesis that transaction price feedback may bias valuation judgment. Among participating appraisers, evidence of asymmetrical response was found. The group receiving transaction feedback indicating that current judgments were "too low" responded with judgments in subsequent, unrelated valuations that were significantly higher than the group that received no feedback. The response from "too high" feedback was in the expected direction (lower value judgments) but was not significant. Additionally, valuation dispersion of around 10% revealed in these experiments is consistent with studies of valuation variability and may reflect an upper bound of typical commercial appraisal dispersion.     

Semivariance of Property Value Estimates as a Determinant of Default Risk

Standard practice in the residential mortgage underwriting industry is to estimate collateral values via independent appraisals conducted by third parties. This paper empirically examines the role of property value ( i.e. , appraisal) uncertainty as a determinant of default on residential mortgage loans. Based upon an analysis of 1,428 residential loans drawn from the portfolio of a national mortgage lender, we find evidence that semivariance in property value uncertainty is related to default risk. Specifically, subject properties that are valued above the sales price of recently sold "similar and proximate" properties show evidence of greater default risk. Interestingly, a variance (range) measure of property value uncertainty is not significantly related to default risk.     

Unsmoothing Real Estate Returns: A Regime‐Switching Approach

We propose newly developed unsmoothing techniques for appraisal‐based real estate returns based on a regime‐switching threshold autoregressive (TAR) model. We show that when true returns follow a TAR process, conventional linear autoregressive techniques are misspecified and underestimate true variance. Two exogenous variables, equity returns and gross domestic product growth, outperform other variables as regime indicators and appear to capture risks of downturns in real estate. We extend the model to the smoothing equation, allowing for switching behavior by appraisers, using two new techniques: the TAR‐AR and TAR‐TAR approaches. The “co‐switching” specification opens up a new frontier of empirical research. We estimate the TAR‐TAR using FT returns as the regime indicator, and we find results that outperform conventional smoothing models and have plausible economic explanations.     

The Nearest Neighbors Appraisal Technique: An Alternative to the Adjustment Grid Methods

This study presents a new appraisal technique, dubbed the Nearest Neighbors Appraisal Technique, which vastly reduces the subjectivity of the traditional adjustment grid methods while eliminating the need to adjust for subject-comparable differences on a piecemeal basis. Any number of appraisers who apply this technique to the same property at the same point in time will get the exact same estimate of value. The technique avoids piecemeal adjustments by capturing all subject-comparable differences in a single measure. Using single-family sales data, the technique is found to be more accurate than any of the adjustment grid methods and hedonic price regression estimation procedures.     

The price-to-rent ratio: A macroprudential application

We examine the potential for the price-to-rent ratio to be used as a macroprudential tool. In addition to using standardized appraisal methods, appraisers could estimate the current market rent for a property. The resulting price-to-rent ratio would provide a useful signal for speculative pressures. We show this by estimating price-to-rent ratios using the American Housing Survey. The distribution of price-to-rent ratios shifted up dramatically during the housing boom with the 75th and 95th percentile reaching a historic peak in 2006 at 22 and 44, respectively. We propose a lending policy that incorporates the price-to-rent ratio to generate countercyclical loan-to-value ratios.     

Commercial Real Estate Returns: An Anatomy of Smoothing in Asset and Index Returns

In this article, we investigate the commonly used autoregressive filter method of adjusting appraisal‐based real estate returns to correct for the perceived biases induced in the appraisal process. Many articles have been written on appraisal smoothing but remarkably few have considered the relationship between smoothing at the individual property level and the amount of persistence in the aggregate appraisal‐based index. To investigate this issue we analyze a large sample of appraisal data at the individual property level from the Investment Property Databank. We find that commonly used unsmoothing estimates at the index level overstate the extent of smoothing that takes place at the individual property level. There is also strong support for an ARFIMA representation of appraisal returns at the index level and an ARMA model at the individual property level.     

A Longitudinal Examination of the Appraisal Smoothing Hypothesis

Appraisal smoothing, the reduced variability of real estate return series, has been attributed to appraisers being influenced by their own previous value estimates. This hypothesis is tested experimentally. Expert apppraisers from Atlanta were asked to value a hypothetical apartment project in Phoenix. Eight months later, these experts were asked to update their original appraisals given certain market and property changes. At this time, an independent group of Atlanta experts was asked to appraise the property based on the updated conditions. Results support the hypothesis of insufficient adjustment from previous value judgments.     

Toward an Evolutionary Theory of Trade Associations: The Case of Real Estate Appraisers

This paper proposes a developmental theory of trade association life cycles with special emphasis on the case of real estate appraisers. Given a neo-institutional perspective of the demand for appraisal services, the paper views real estate appraisers as information specialists. Trade associations tend to develop along a common, although not strictly fixed, set of steps. At each stage, various institutional activities occur that when observed, can be used to characterize the association's rate of development. In this context, real estate appraisers and their institutions are examined. Recent advances provide evidence that major changes are currently underway.     

What Does the Stock Market Tell Us About Real Estate Returns?

This paper analyzes the risks and returns of different types of real estate-related firms traded on the New York and American stock exchanges (NYSE and AMEX). We examine the relation between real estate stock portfolio returns and returns on a standard appraisal-based index, and find that lagged values of traded real estate portfolio returns can predict returns on the appraisal-based index after controlling for persistence in the appraisal series. The stock market reflects information about real estate markets that is later imbedded in infrequent property appraisals. Additional analysis suggests that the differences in the return and risk characteristics across different types of traded real estate firms can be explained in part by appealing to real estate market fundamentals relating to the degree of dependence of the real estate firm upon rental cash flows from existing buildings. These findings highlight the heterogeneity of securitized real estate-related firms.     

Appraisal-Based Real Estate Returns under Alternative Market Regimes

In this article we use Monte Carlo simulation to study the statistical properties of real estate returns. We set up a model where transactions prices are noisy signals of true prices. We then consider a number of appraisal rules, derived from Bayesian and non-Bayesian theory, to estimate the current true price and rate of return. The class of exponential smoothing and Kalman filter rules perform well at both the disaggregate (returns on an individual property) and aggregate (returns on a real property portfolio) levels. A special case of exponential smoothing (α= 1.0) places all weight on current market data. Since this case eliminates smoothing, our results suggest that appraisers should place all weight on current data (no weight on past data) provided that they want to estimate returns rather than values. However, these results should be used with caution if sales prices are very noisy.     

Riskiness of Real Estate Development: A Perspective from Urban Economics and Option Value Theory

In this article, we define a new construct for urban economic and investment analysis, which revisits the conventional wisdom that investment in real estate development is riskier than investment in stabilized property assets. This new construct, referred as a “development asset value index” (DAVI), is a value index for newly developed properties (only) in a given geographical property market. It tracks longitudinal changes in the highest and best use (HBU) value of locations, and it reveals developer and landowner behavior taking advantage of the optionality inherent in land ownership. In particular, the DAVI reflects developers' use of flexibility in the exercise of the call option to (re)develop the property to any legal use and density. We empirically estimate a DAVI for commercial property (i.e., central locations) and compare it with a corresponding traditional transaction‐price‐based property asset price index (PAPI) corrected for depreciation. We believe that the difference primarily reflects the realized value of flexibility in land development. We find that the DAVIs display greater value growth and are smoother over time and less cyclical than their corresponding PAPIs for the same locations. This suggests that developers successfully use flexibility, and that development may be riskier than stabilized property investment due primarily only to leverage effects (construction costs). Practical implications are also discussed.     

Assessing the Market Value of Real Estate Property with a Geographically Weighted Stochastic Frontier Model

In this study we consider the problem of sellers, buyers and real estate appraisers in determining the price for a house, taking into account the characteristics of the house and its location as well as the goals of these three different parties. The appraiser's job is to determine the fair market value of the house, while the buyer and seller want to find, respectively, the lowest and highest feasible price for it. We combine recent developments in geography and econometrics to develop an approach that determines local estimates of property values from the perspectives of the buyer, seller and appraiser, taking into account the characteristics of the house as well as its location. We illustrate our approach analyzing closing prices in one residential real estate market.     

领导成员交换对主管评估行为的影响研究

近年来,评估者行为成为绩效评估研究领域的新焦点,它会受到自身动机/ 特征、受评者特征、评估者与受评者二元关系、组织评估制度等多方面因素的影响。本文设定主管为评估者,选择评估者与受评者二元关系中的领导成员交换（LMX）作为主要研究变量,探究LMX 与主管评估行为之间的关系。通过231 份有效问卷数据统计结果发现,LMX 显著正向影响主管宽大评估行为,LMX 水平越高,评估结果越趋向宽大;反之LMX 显著负向影响主管准确评估行为,LMX 水平越低,评估结果越趋向准确。在研究中引入管理性评估目的作为调节变量,当处于低情境下的绩效评估管理性目的时,LMX 对主管评估行为影响与主效应保持一致,但处于高情境下的绩效评估管理目的时,无论LMX 水平高低与否,主管都会趋向采取准确评估行为。     

竞争战略的产权观点

产权理论认为，不完备的产权不仅影响利用资产创造价值的程度，也使得人们花费资源用于攫取和保护产权。本文把交易成本看做是与攫取、保护和转移产权相联系的成本。由于攫取和保护行为会耗散企业的价值，企业可以凭借影响攫取和保护的成本来创造价值。本文在产权理论的基础上构建了竞争战略的产权分析框架，并且比较了这一观点与其他竞争战略观点的区别与联系。     

The Dynamics of Appraisal Smoothing

We investigate the dynamics of appraisal smoothing in the National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF) index return using time‐varying asset pricing models. We find that smoothing is on average close to zero but varies substantially over time. From the inception of the NCREIF index in 1978 until the mid‐1990s, there was little evidence of smoothing. Smoothing has increased significantly since the mid‐1990s to the end of 2010. Smoothing increases when property prices or uncertainty increases. However, it decreases when sentiment in the property market is high or during recession periods. The substantial variation in the level of smoothing indicates that the volatility of unsmoothed appraisal‐based property returns would be significantly over‐ or under‐estimated for different periods if unsmoothed with a long‐run average smoothing.     

The Gains from Corporate Selloffs: The Case of Real Estate Assets

Recent financial economics literature has hypothesized that variations in market structure influence the distribution of gains from corporate restructuring between buyers and sellers. We test this hypothesis using data on restructuring involving real estate assets by isolating the effects depending on multiple versus single bidders, acquisition frequency and transaction type. While we find gains for both buyers and sellers, the buyers gain only when they make few purchases. Those firms pursuing an acquisition strategy show no gains around the specific acquisition announcements. Additionally, both buyers and sellers are more likely to have a positive reaction to the announcement when the transaction is property rather than a division or subsidiary.     

大型企业市场链管理模式研究

市场链是大型企业业务组织单元和经营规模扩张到一定程度,其组织管理的边际交易成本超过了边际规模效率时而生成的一种新的管理模式。与一般的企业内部市场化不同,市场链是一种贯穿于企业运营全过程的整体性、流程式交易机制,它将企业内部不同部门、上下流程、上下工序和岗位之间的业务关系,构造成为通过内部市场价格机制调节的相互咬合、无缝链接、环环相扣的扁平化链状交易流程,以此实现对每一个利益主体的有效激励与约束,达到企业运营效应的整体优化。企业内部市场链是基于一体化业务流程的连续性、关联性而建立起来的在固定对象之间展开的确定性、重复性、高度专用性特质交易,按照高度专用性交易的强度,可以将市场链交易关系划分为不同类型,从而形成市场链的特质交易结构。与不同交易关系类型相适应的契约结构安排以及保障措施,不断地巩固和强化着市场链流程的特质交易关系。市场链管理模式有效克服了在信息不对称情形下企业基层组织和个人的动力不足与机会主义行为,极大地降低了企业内部的交易费用,从而能够强有力地推动大型企业超越"规模陷阱"、在持续发展中提高管理与运营效率。