Endogenous supply of fiat money

We consider whether reputation concerns can discipline the behavior of a long-lived self-interested agent who has a monopoly over the provision of fiat money. We obtain that when this agent can commit to a choice of money supply, there is a monetary equilibrium where it never overissues. We show, however, that monetary equilibria with no overissue do not exist when there is no commitment. This happens because the incentives this agent has to maintain a reputation for providing valuable currency disappear once its reputation is high enough. More generally, we prove that in the absence of commitment overissue happens infinitely often in any monetary equilibrium. We conclude by showing that imperfect memory can restore the positive result obtained with commitment.     

Monetary regimes and money supply endogeneity

Quasi-longitudinal Canadian microdata was used to compare the movement of individuals between employers with job changes taking place within firms. Internal mobility is found to be much less common than job changing between firms. Workers changing jobs within a firm are more likely to be older and have higher wages and longer tenures in the jobs they leave than individuals employers. This provides some support for the job-matching hypothesis underlying recent research on the causes of individual mobility, although it is also clear that workers in large or unionized firms are more likely to have the opportunity for internal promotion. While wage gains obtained through internal mobility are smaller than those achieved through external mobility, wage levels are higher for individuals moving within the firm. It is argued that this observation is consistent with a dual labour markets interpretation of mobility patterns.     

Forecasting money demand with Jorgenson's Lag and Tobin's q

The poor forecasting record of time-series money-demand equations is generally attributable to shifts in public behavior, to the omission of important arguments, and to the inadequate specification of the functional form of the relationship. This paper explores the latter two problems by deriving the demand function from Tobin's model of asset markets, by incorporating Tobin's “q” as an argument, and by basing the adjustment process on Jorgenson's rational distributed-lag model. These modifications produce reasonably stable equations that forecast well throughout the 1970s.     

Optimal money supply rules under asymmetric objective criteria

This paper examines the derivation and properties of optimal money supply rules when such rules are chosen to minimize a loss function with asymmetric properties. Optimal money supply rules derived under symmetric and asymmetric objective criteria are compared under alternative expectations scenarios. When shocks have no impact on variables in the loss function, the optimal rule under a symmetric objective criterion is then also optimal under an asymmetric objective criterion. When shocks have some impact on variables in the loss function, the optimal policy rule will be different under the alternative criteria.Earlier versions of this paper were presented to the Seventh Analytic Economics Workshop, Australian National University, to the Australasian Meetings of the Econometrics Society, University of New England, and to seminars at the University of Waikato, the University of Canterbury at Christchurch, and the University of Guelph. The author is grateful to participants in those sessions for helpful comments. Particular thanks go to Louis Christofides, John Fender, Rod Maddock, Adrian Pagan, John Pitchford, and Larry Taylor for helpful discussions. The author is also grateful to the editor and two anonymous referees of this Journal for their constructive comments and criticisms. Of course, any remaining errors are the sole responsibility of the author.     

Rational expectations,the government budget constraint,and the optimal money supply

A stylized macroeconomic model incorporating a surprise supply function is examined. Extension of the model to recognize the government budget constraint makes it clear that random elements must enter into the determination of some policy variable in the face of exogenous shocks elsewhere in the model. Allowing these random elements to enter into the money supply may be a useful automatic countercyclical policy contrary to the usual inference that a deterministic money supply policy will be better.     

An empirical procedure to evaluate monetary management under exogenous changes in the money supply

This article proposes an empirical procedure to evaluate central banks’ monetary management in a presence of exogenous changes in the money supply. Monetary shocks deviate the market interest rate from the target, and the monetary authority decides its optimal intervention in the money market, bearing in mind the benefits and costs of re-establishing its target interest rate. According to monetary management theory, typically a central bank will allow for variation in the interest rate within a range around the target interest rate, thereby intervening in the money market when the interest rate trends toward a point outside that range. In this context, we develop an empirical strategy to analyse central bank’s reactions to exogenous money changes by making a statistical comparison of the actual and the estimated intraday shift in the money supply. We also employ our method to test the reactions of the Brazilian Central Bank to liquidity shifts caused by changes in the Treasury Single Account (TSA) balance. Using different metrics of analysis, the applications of our procedure confirms the predictions of the optimal monetary management theory.     

The formation of expectations: Some evidence from weekly money supply forecasts

This paper investigates the expectations formation process of weekly money supply forecasts derived from survey data. The evidence indicates that forecaster's expectations are modelled best as regressive. Moreover, the results are unaffected by the October 1979 change in monetary operating procedures.     

Non-neutral responses to money supply shocks when consumption and leisure are Pareto substitutes

Summary. To a greater extent than is often stressed in existing literature, preference assumptions affect responses to money shocks in equilibrium monetary models. Temporary money shocks can have persistent real effects if the marginal utility of leisure is a decreasing function of consumption, where leisure is measured as time endowment less market labor effort, and consumption refers to market produced goods. This condition is an empirically supported implication of home production models. Though not theoretically necessary for supporting the existence of short run real effects, the presence of distortionary taxes and endogenous productivity can have significant quantitative effects on responses to temporary money supply shocks. Received: August 21, 1996; revised version: February 3, 1997     

货币需求弹性、有效货币供给与货币市场非均衡模型——解析"中国之谜"与长期流动性过剩

Chinese excessive liquidity problems are more serious than other main countries. The upgrading industrial structure and the increasing opening degree lead to the excessive money demand and higher money demand elasticity. Bad credits weaken money supply effectiveness and lead to illusive increasing money. We set up the money market disequilibrium model under the condition of the excessive liquidity. The imbalance between money demand and money supply is the key of Chinese excessive liquidity problems. __________ Translated from Jingji lilun yu jingji guanli 经济理论与经济管理(Economic Theory and Business Management), 2007, (11): 38–44     

Lax money supply under globalization and detecting an early sign to anticipate deep recession

This article uncovers a macroeconomic threshold for avoiding deep recession under globalization. The analysis shows that there is a long-run natural rate of substitution between the broadest measure of money balances and nominal government spending, namely the natural fiscal velocity. Applying this threshold to the actual economy can give us two benefits: first, comparing the actual rate of substitution between the broadest measure of money balances and nominal government spending with the natural fiscal velocity can provide an early sign to anticipate deep recession under globalization. Second, controlling the actual fiscal velocity so as not to exceed the natural one is such a macro calibration that the authorities can easily justify their pre-emptive actions as a means of avoiding a deep recession trap under globalization.     

The response of aggregate demand to income,money supply,and price level

The response elasticities of (nominal) aggregate demand to the price level and to other nominal variables (e.g., money supply) are both positive but smaller than one. Aggregate demand is less/as responsive to real income than/as to the price level in the short/long run. Real aggregate demand is less/as responsive to real income than/as nominal aggregate demand is to the price level in the short/long run. Some uses of these results are indicated.     

Determinants of household savings in China and their role in quasi‐money supply1

This study derives household saving potential empirically from econometric models of Chinese urban and rural household consumption and uses this potential to explain household bank deposits. Model simulations are performed to analyse the effects of interest rates, income and income uncertainty on the saving potential and the bank deposits. The bank deposits variable is then used to explain quasi‐money supply. High bank absorption of household savings is found to account mainly for the rapid growth in quasi‐money, which in turn explains the exceptionally high M2/GDP ratio. Households’ savings are largely predictable from their regular consumption.     

Government expenditure,money supply and unemployment in the USA: an analysis of the pre-war and post-war functional forms

A new frame work to measure the impact of an increase in government expenditure and/or money supply on unemployment is provided. The model and procedures introduced are used to estimate a long-run aggregate demand function for the US economy.     

Credit creation under multiple banking regulations: The impact of balance sheet diversity on money supply

Since the recent financial crisis along with more concentration of banking supervision, we have stepped into a new regulatory regime where multiple regulations are at play simultaneously. In this paper, we study the collective impacts of multiple regulations on credit creation in a heterogeneous banking system. Each single regulation imposes a constraint on credit creation for each bank, while with multiple regulations, only the most stringent one plays the determinant role on money supply. For the homogeneous banking system with identical balance sheets, they share the same binding regulation. In contrast, for the heterogeneous banking system with diverse balance sheets, the binding regulation for each bank may be different from other's. Those banks, who are bound by different regulatory constraints from homogeneous banks, would bring about an overall reduction in money supply, because those binding regulations impose a lower capacity (compared with the one in the case of homogeneous banks) for the banks to extend their balance sheets in this condition. We put forward an agent-based model of commercial banks integrated with two processes: credit creation and fund transfer, to demonstrate the reduction effect. The results facilitate the understandings of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy via banks and its interaction with prudential regulations.     

Asymmetric effects of industrial production,money supply and exchange rate changes on stock returns in Turkey

The aim of this article is twofold: First, it examines the asymmetric effects of industrial production, money supply and RER on stock returns in Turkey by using the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model over the periods of 1994:01–2017:05 and 2002:01–2017:05. Second, it tries to determine whether there is a change of these macroeconomic variables’ effects on stock returns after the 2001 financial crisis since after 2002 period represents a structural break from the past in terms of economic, political and macroeconomic policy approaches. The study finds that the effects of the changes in industrial production, money supply and RER on stock returns are asymmetric, and the asymmetries are larger after the 2002 subsample compared to the full sample period. The empirical results further suggest that tight monetary policies appear to retard the stock returns more than easy monetary policies that stimulate them.     

Synthetic money

This paper provides a methodology for constructing synthetic money, which is defined as an optimal currency basket that mimics a single currency. Empirical evidence is provided by constructing a synthetic dollar from a currency basket comprised of six currencies that excludes the U.S. dollar. We believe that synthetic money has a number of practical applications, including currency pegging operations by nations, denomination of global bond issues by large firms and countries, and analyses of currency movements over time by interested parties.