The Predictive Power of the French Market Volatility Index: A Multi Horizons Study

The main purpose of this paper is to examine empirically the time series properties of the French Market Volatility Index (VX1). We also examine the VX1's ability to forecast future realized market volatility and finds a strong relationship. More importantly, we show how the index can be used to generate volatility forecasts over different horizons and that these forecasts are reasonably accurate predictors of future realized volatility.     

Estimating the Model for Seasoned Equity Offering Underpricing: Application to the Chinese Financial Market

We estimate the binomial probit model to examine the significance of important explanatory variables documented in seasoned equity offering (SEO) underpricing literature using two statistical approaches: maximum likelihood estimation and Bayesian estimation. In particular, our estimation relies on SEO-related data in the Chinese financial market, where the pricing mechanism is less transparent compared to that in the U.S. market. We find that the signs of coefficients for the explanatory variables in each model are not different, but their magnitudes appear to be different. Our finding also shows that estimation results are generally consistent with the results observed in the U.S. market.     

Optimal Estimation of the Risk Premium for the Long Run and Asset Allocation: A Case of Compounded Estimation Risk

It is well known that an unbiased forecast of the terminal valueof a portfolio requires compounding at the arithmetic mean returnover the investment horizon. However, the maximum-likelihoodpractice, common with academics, of compounding at the estimatorof mean return results in upward biased and highly inefficientestimates of long-term expected returns. We derive analyticallyboth an unbiased and a small-sample efficient estimator of long-termexpected returns for a given sample size and horizon. Both estimatorsentail penalties that reduce the annual compounding rate asthe investment horizon increases. The unbiased estimator, whichis far lower than the compounded arithmetic average, is stillvery inefficient, often more so than a simple geometric estimatorknown to practitioners. Our small-sample efficient estimatoris even lower. These results compound the sobering evidencein recent work that the equity risk premium is lower than suggestedby post-1926 data. Our methodology and results are robust toextensions such as predictable returns. We also confirm analyticallythat parameter uncertainty, properly incorporated, producesoptimal asset allocations, in stark contrast to conventionalwisdom. Longer investment horizons require lower, not higher,allocations to risky assets.     

Assessing the Real Estate Pricing Puzzle: A Diagnostic Application of the Stochastic Discounting Factor to the Distribution of REIT Returns

This article applies a general asset-pricing framework and the volatility bounds methodology of Hansen and Jagannathan (1991) to REIT returns. The state of real estate asset pricing remains somewhat of a puzzle relative to the identification of state variables and the structural form of models. This article offers a framework whereby real estate asset-pricing models and data can be diagnosed to answer questions about the shortcomings. In addition, several nominated discount processes are investigated for success in pricing real estate securities. Although the nominated specifications demonstrate some success in satisfying the restrictions on the first and second moments of the real estate returns distribution, they do not successfully price the securities under a no-arbitrage condition. This result calls into question previous real estate performance studies that employ these risk-adjustment processes.     

Ruin probability at a given time for a model with liabilities of the fractional Brownian motion type: A partial differential equation approach

In this paper we study the ruin probability at a given time for liabilities of diffusion type, driven by fractional Brownian motion with Hurst exponent in the range (0.5, 1). Using fractional Itô calculus we derive a partial differential equation the solution of which provides the ruin probability. An analytical solution is found for this equation and the results obtained by this approach are compared with the results obtained by Monte-Carlo simulation.     

A general framework for the derivation of asset price bounds: an application to stochastic volatility option models

We present a generalization of Cochrane and Saá-Requejo’s good-deal bounds which allows to include in a flexible way the implications of a given stochastic discount factor model. Furthermore, a useful application to stochastic volatility models of option pricing is provided where closed-form solutions for the bounds are obtained. A calibration exercise demonstrates that our benchmark good-deal pricing results in much tighter bounds. Finally, a discussion of methodological and economic issues is also provided.      

营业税改征增值税的税率评估——基于可计算一般均衡模型的研究

营业税改征增值税是完善我国税制的一个重要举措,确定各个产业部门改征增值税后的税率是其中一个关键的环节。运用可计算一般均衡模型可以评估营业税改征增值税之后不同税率的选择对宏观经济和产业结构的影响。政策模拟的结果显示,目前正在实施的营业税改征增值税的试点方案权衡了对财政收入和经济增长以及经济结构的影响,是对经济运行影响较小的稳健选择。