历史文化名城杭州空间结构转变的必然性

伴随城市经济的迅速发展,我国许多城市都出现了城市化进程加剧的特点。在新一轮现代化建设高潮中,越来越多的历史文化名城都将重新审视如何实现更为有效的保护问题。文章以杭州作为研究样本,通过对比以苏州和杭州为代表的两种不同形式的保护途径,分析杭州在历史文化名城保护过程中曾经走过的弯路和教训,针对城市空间结构转变对于历史文化名城保护的现实意义,分层次讨论杭州通过借助新城发展得以保护老城现状的城市“理性增长”必然性,最终提出依托休闲经济发展实现杭州“以老城养老城”良性循环的解决思路。     

Measures for knowledge-based economic development: Introducing data mining techniques to economic developers in the state of Georgia and the US South

The contribution of knowledge to economic growth and competitiveness has attracted increased attention. Publications with a topical focus on areas related to innovation have risen dramatically from 1963 to 2005, but more slowly in local and regional development journals. In contrast to the wide use of aggregate measures of innovation, this paper presents four cases presenting disaggregated knowledge-based approaches into the policy- and decision-making processes of economic developers in the state of Georgia and the US South. The first case uses information obtained from patents and publications to inform traditional out-of-area economic development recruitment strategies in a more knowledge-oriented direction. The second case exemplifies the use of data mining to identify top researchers as part of a strategic state economic development effort. The third case illustrates how local knowledge-based capabilities can be identified in cities not traditionally viewed as innovative. Nanotechnology-related knowledge assets in the southern United States are mapped and assessed in the fourth case. Disaggregated methods used in traditional strategies were most intuitively understood and used, but new knowledge measures were found to encourage local and state economic developers to begin to embrace new paradigms.     

中国城市规模体系与城市发展战略*

过去30多年中国城市发展速度较快，然而究竟应该以何种规模的城市作为城市发展战略的重点始终存在争论。本文基于城市成本收益最优规模的罗伯特研究框架，利用中国143个城市数据采取分组估计方法进行检验，发现并不存在单一的最优城市规模。在此基础上，本文进一步利用齐普夫（ZIPF）法则和城市就业提供能力指数对中国现有城市规模体系进行研究，本文发现中国城市体系总体规模偏小且缺乏足够的就业提供能力。最后，本文根据相关研究结论提出符合中国实际的城市发展战略。     

Social Movements and Development In Quebec: The Experience of the Desjardins Movement

Along with the other sectors of the banking industry over the last two decades, the savings and credit cooperatives have been affected by deep currents which are radically changing their form and structure. In Quebec, the Desjardins movement is at present involved in a fundamental reform of the organizational structures which have characterized its growth since the period between the two world wars. This article deals with the major transformations which the Desjardins movement experienced, from the creation of the first caisse populaire in 1900 to the situation existing at the end of the twentieth century. Using an approach at the junction of history and sociology, it considers the Desjardins movement as one of the components of what Alain Touraine calls a 'social development movement'. We aim to show that the present changes affecting the savings and credit cooperation fall within the long-term historical trends, while at the same time reflecting new phenomena. We shall point out the most significant aspects of these new developments.     

Restoring Wetlands Through Wetlands Mitigation Banks

This paper offers the first economic analysis of wetlands mitigation banks. The banks are a new alternative for restoration of wetlands by developers before receiving regulatory approval for future development of wetlands in the same watershed. A stochastic optimal control model is developed which incorporates ecological uncertainty of wetlands restoration. The model helps in examining the decisions of how much to invest in a wetlands mitigation bank. The model is calibrated with data from California bioeconomic parameters. Numerical simulation of the model provides a sensitivity analysis of how model parameters of restoration costs, stochastic biological growth, interest rate, and the market value of credits affect the trajectory of investment and the optimal stopping state of wetlands quality when the investment ends. The analysis reveals that restoration of the whole site will occur when there is a reduction in restoration costs, an increase in biological uncertainty or an increase in the value of wetlands credits. Continued restoration is harder to justify with a higher interest rate.     

Impact Fees and Real Estate Prices: Evidence from 35 Chinese Cities

Local governments often charge developers impact fees to finance local public goods. This has been practiced in Chinese cities for more than two decades; however, no empirical studies have tested the effect of impact fees on real estate prices. Using a panel data set for 35 large- and medium-sized cities from 1998 to 2008, we find that impact fees lead to a significant increase in real estate prices. For a given city, an increase in impact fees by one yuan leads to an increase of about 5 yuan in the price of newly-built housing; a 1% increase in impact fees leads to an increase of 5 percentage points in the housing price index and 7 percentage points in the land price index.     

Competitive sprawl

Sprawl and low urban density are often considered challenges to the vitality and efficiency of metropolitan areas. Utilizing a difference equation approach to endogenize density choices, this paper examines how competition between new cities causes development to occur too quickly compared to welfare maximizing development. Early development causes land to be sold in larger lots to a smaller number of buyers, causing lower population density. Competition in a timing game among developers causes early development, lower population density and lower capital density. I would like to thank James Peck, Don Haurin, Bruce Weinberg, David Hineline and an anonymous referee for comments on earlier drafts.     

新兴产业发展空间溢出效应研究

新兴产业作为当下及未来一段时间内最具发展活力的产业,是推动我国产业转型升级的核心力量。但是,新兴产业主要集中在一线城市以及其它省会核心城市,不同区域之间发展差距非常大。明确新兴产业发展的空间相关关系,才能更有效地以核心城市带动相邻落后城市的新兴产业发展。基于创新要素和集聚效应双重视角,对广东省21个地级市2011—2015年新兴产业数据进行实证研究,结果表明新兴产业发展具有显著空间相关性,研发效率和科研机构占比两大创新要素对相邻区域新兴产业发展产生正向溢出效应,产业集聚和R&D投入则产生虹吸效应。最后,提出相关对策建议。     

中国城市人口可比增长速度的空间差异(1949──1995)

本文川计算城市人口可比增长速度的方法．分三个阶段检验了我国城市人口增长速度的总体状况和空间差异.认为城市人口增长速度呈明显的马鞍形,大城市增长速度波动最大,与决策者的认识与愿望不一致。通过三个阶段快速增长城市和缓慢增长城市分布的分析、认为东中西之间和南北之间的差异都很明显。我国城市发展的重点,第一阶段在西部．第二阶段在中部、第三阶段在东部。南方城市的增长速度在第一阶段远远落后于北方。第二阶段差距有所缩小．第三阶段南方城市接近或超过了北方城市。东部快于中西部．南方快于北方的趋势仍在继续。城市人口增长速度空间差异的变化与我国宏观经济发展方针的转变相一致。     

PROBLEMS IN THE COMPILATION OF INPUT-OUTPUT TABLES IN THE NETHERLANDS

This article deals with some aspects of the compilation of input-output tables (I.O. tables). A global view is given of the way in which I.O. tables are compiled in The Netherlands. It is indicated that in The Netherlands a number of developments are in progress that have led to an extension of the uses that are made of I.O. tables. The changing demands on I.O. tables that result from these developments can be met in future to an important degree. This has been made possible by extending and improving basic statistics and by increasing the uses made of automation facilities. Some problems remain, however, and one of these problems takes a central place in this article. This is the problem of accuracy and continuity: how can yearly I.O. tables be compiled that combine accuracy with consistency over time. Accuracy means here that the tables should be as complete as possible and in optimal accordance with all available information. Consistency over time means that estimates of details of I.O. tables compared with the same estimates for previous years reflect real economic developments. It is obvious that those two demands may conflict, particularly for years in which new information becomes available. It then must be decided whether accuracy or consistency in time deserves priority. What problems result from this decision and what are the consequences for the yearly I.O. tables? The problems arising from the conflicting demands of accuracy and continuity apply to the Netherlands in the last few years. This led to a revision of I.O. tables and national accounts for 1977. This revision resulted in an increase of estimated national income of more than 6 percent. For some components the adjustments have been much larger; this is particularly true for the services sector. More information on the 1977 revision is given in an annex.     

试论城市生命体中生活固体废弃物物流系统的完善

本文提出了城市生命体概念,指出城市生命体是个复杂的物质系统,并从新的角度来论述如何完善城市生活固体废弃物物流系统。     

The role of scanning in open intelligence systems

Every month, SRI Consulting Business Intelligence (SRIC-BI) professionals assemble more than 100 short abstracts of developments that they perceive to be signals of change, discontinuities, inflection points, outliers, or disruptive developments. The effort is part of a continuous scanning process and Scan program that allows SRIC-BI to gauge the ongoing turbulent confluence of culture, commerce, and technology that defines today's business environment. For more than 25 years, scanning has played an essential role in SRIC-BI's and SRI International's foresight capabilities by providing a systematic means for surveying the broad external environment for change vectors. Traditional monitoring processes in most organizations are largely arbitrary, depending on what concerned individuals or leaders in the organization are reading, thinking about, and sharing informally with each other. But in today's world, arbitrary is insufficient. No foresight function can operate with confidence without a disciplined process for spotting new patterns of change and bringing those issues into the organization for early consideration and action. This article describes the scanning process as SRIC-BI practices it, the importance of open intelligence systems, what benefits the scanning process can provide to organizations, and what problems organizations typically run into when setting up scanning systems.     

多元要素流动对城市群高质量发展的影响——以长株潭城市群为例

利用熵值法测度2011—2020年长株潭城市群高质量发展水平，并在梳理多元要素流动影响城市群高质量发展作用机制的基础上，选取全局与局域莫兰指数检验城市群高质量发展水平的空间关联特征，采用3种空间面板模型实证分析R&D人才流、R&D资金流和信息流对高质量发展的影响。研究结果表明：①长株潭城市群高质量发展水平均值为0.433，经济全面发展与社会协调发展水平明显偏低，高质量发展水平在全局范围内存在显著的空间正相关性；②长株潭城市群空间结构呈现出以长沙为核心的单极化发展趋势，长沙的各要素流和综合流强度均明显高于其它城市；③城市群高质量发展与R&D人才流呈显著的线性正相关，与R&D资金流呈显著的U型曲线关系，经济全面发展、社会协调发展与环境友好发展在城市群内均存在显著的空间正相关。     

Evaluation of Taiwan's aboriginal development before Ching Dynasty

This study makes use of information on geography, climate, immigration, history and anthropology to analyse interactions between changes in terrain and migration developments in these two areas from 1624 to 1894. Bangang, on the Yunlin-Chiayi plain, was the biggest city in Taiwan during the period 1624–1720. However, the terrain of this area has changed greatly with the coastline moving toward the west about 20 meters per year. Therefore, many cities and harbours in this area were gradually replaced. As a result, much new land was created and many races immigrated into the area. The first Han Chinese migration was led by Yen Shih-Chi and Cheng Chih-Lung in 1624, and entered the coastal area of Yunlin-Chiayi for exploitation. By 1650 it had grown to 25?000 people and that huge number forced the Tsou tribe to begin moving toward Ali Mountain.     

An empirical investigation of complexity and its management in new product development

New product development (NPD) programmes are increasingly complex and difficult to manage. The consequences of poorly managed development complexity can be highly visible and even lead to project failure. To effectively screen new product proposals and manage NPD projects more efficiently, NPD teams need to be equipped with the capacity to identify development complexity and possess the knowledge to manage it. Unfortunately, there have been few studies which specifically illuminate the challenges and experiences product developers face in dealing with complexity. Our research attempts to help fill this gap. Our study is based on exploratory field interviews with 32 project leaders and team members. We first focus on identifying the specific complexity issues encountered in NPD. We then identify what NPD teams actually do to minimise the potential adverse consequences of complexity. Finally, we examine whether a company's development process reduces or increases the complexities NPD teams encounter. Based upon our research, we present our results and conclude by offering several recommendations for complexity management as well as suggestions for future research.     

地理与服务业-内需是否会使城市体系分散化?

本文利用中国城市面板数据,考察了到大港口和区域性核心大城市的距离对第三产业劳动生产率的影响。我们发现,第三产业劳动生产率和到大港口的距离之间呈现出三次型的"∽"曲线关系,随着离大港口越来越远,第三产业劳动生产率下降、上升再下降。相比之下,第二产业劳动生产率和到大港口的距离之间也存在三次曲线关系,但是没有第二波峰,说明第二产业的集聚力比第三产业相对更强,但离散力相对更弱。同时,我们也发现,区域性的大城市对第三产业劳动生产率的影响比对第二产业的影响更加明显。本文的含义是,向沿海和大城市周边的空间集聚对于服务业发展非常重要,服务业作为内需增长的源泉并不会使城市体系分散化。     

我国历史文化名城的可持续发展

本文认为,在我国社会发展中,历史文化名城具有特殊的地位和作用.加强我国历史文化名城的保护,合理利用名城历史文化资源,促进名城可持续发展是必须要研究的理论和现实问题.本文探索了历史文化名城可持续发展的涵义和内容;剖析了,目前我国名城发展中存在的主要矛盾和问题;进而,结合实际提出了,促进我国历史名城可持续发展的新途径和措施.     

基于交通可达性的半岛型省区中心—门户体系比较分析

基于GIS平台,构建综合评价指标体系,对我国山东、辽宁两个典型半岛型省区2002年和2016年中心—门户体系进行比较分析,结果显示:①两省的可达性水平均实现了由“周末生活圈”向“一日生活圈”的转变,其中对内可达性格局呈现出以各自省会城市为核心向外围逐渐扩展的“中心—外围”格局,对外可达性格局辽宁省表现为双核型特征,山东省则呈现出由弱双核向单核结构发展的态势。②两省中心—门户体系差异化明显,存在由腹地城市转向门户城市、腹地中心与门户城市等级提升、减弱五种类型,其中山东省门户城市等级提升幅度强于腹地中心城市的衰减速度,而辽宁省中心与门户城市等级变化幅度不大。③两省中心—门户体系具有一定位序规模分布特征,在空间上呈帕累托分布模式,表现为首位城市的集聚效应过于突出,中小城市发展相对滞后。山东省门户城市的发展速度快于中心城市,其中心—门户体系向开放型的门户主导型转变。辽宁省由于门户与腹地城市发展差距较小,其中心—门户体系的双核特征愈加明显。两省经济、交通可达性等指标对中心—门户等级体系影响较大,区位中心性影响较小,山东省已经出现中心与门户城市合二为一的态势。     

建立在行为经济学理论基础上的委托-代理模型:物质效用与动机公平的替代

本文通过将Rabin(1993)提出的同时考虑了物质效用和"动机公平"的效用函数植入现有的委托代理模型,获得一个代理人表现出"互惠性"非理性行为的新委托代理模型。由该模型给出来的最优委托代理合约在一定条件下可以给委托人带来比现有委托代理最优合约更高的利润水平。该研究改进和完善了蒲勇健(2007)的结果。与蒲勇健(2007)的研究相比,我们发现在同时考虑了物质效用和"动机公平"的情况下,非理性代理人的行为更加复杂,他会在公平与自利之间寻求平衡。数值模拟的结果表明,模型一般会存在解。     

市域知性管理对城市可持续发展的影响

在新时代,加强与创新市域社会治理是中国城市实现可持续发展的关键。首先,将企业层面的知性管理理论引入城市治理,提出市域知性管理理念,构建市域知识资本与性格特质评价体系以及耦合协调度测量模型,以中国内地30个省会城市或直辖市为对象,实施知识资本与性格特质评价及耦合协调度实证测量;然后,采用线性回归、岭回归分析模型与Sobel检验程序,测量市域知性管理与可持续发展关系,证实知识资本、性格特质及其耦合协调关系对城市可持续发展能力的积极影响;最后,从市域知性管理视角提出促进城市可持续发展的对策建议。