Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration

This paper provides an empirical investigation of the medium-term determinants of current accounts for a large sample of industrial and developing countries, utilizing an approach that highlights macroeconomic determinants of longer-term saving and investment balances. Cross-section and panel regression techniques are used to characterize the variation of the current account across countries and over time. We find that current account balances are positively correlated with government budget balances and initial stocks of net foreign assets. Among developing countries, measures of financial deepening are positively associated with current account balances while indicators of openness to international trade are negatively correlated with current account balances.     

Current account sustainability in Latin America

This paper examines the sustainability of the current account deficit in eighteen Latin American countries through the analysis of the stationarity properties of the current account balance. First, we apply traditional unit root tests and consider the possibility of structural breaks. Second, since the current account may have a nonlinear behaviour, we test for linearity in the data and analyse current account stationarity by means of a recently developed nonlinear unit root test. Results from linear and nonlinear unit root tests show that current account sustainability is supported for the majority of Latin American countries with the exception of Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Paraguay. For the Dominican Republic, Honduras, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela the current account dynamics are best described by a stationary linear model, and by a stationary linear model with a mean shift in years 2003, 1982 and 1980 in Bolivia, Costa Rica and Nicaragua, respectively. In the case of Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador and Guatemala, results show that the current account is best described by a mean-reverting nonlinear process.     

Do Remittances Facilitate a Sustainable Current Account?

We examine how workers' remittances impact on the current account. In doing so, we focus on how remittances affect the sustainability rather than the size of current account balances. We find that the presence of remittances makes it more likely that exports and imports are cointegrated, thereby lending support to current account sustainability. Furthermore, quantile regression analysis suggests that increased remittances are associated with a faster speed of current account adjustment towards long‐run equilibrium, particularly for those countries characterised by already highly persistent current account balances. In contrast to a literature that emphasises an adverse Dutch disease impact of workers' remittances on the real exchange rate in terms of reduced external competitiveness, our findings suggest that remittances are actually beneficial to the current account balance.     

用AOA设计有源补偿双二阶电流模式滤波器

为获得高频率、高精度双二阶电流模式滤波器,根据实际伴随运算放大器(AOA)的开环频率特性,先分析了实际AOA积分器的频率特性,后分析了有源补偿的AOA积分器的频率特性。再借助于拆环法,通过巧妙设计,给出了AOA有源补偿双二阶电流模式滤波器。最后采用预失真技术,使该电路的实际参数与设计值完全吻合。计算机仿真表明,所提出的电路正确有效。     

Irrungen und Wirrungen mit der Leistungsbilanzstatistik

In the current crisis the current account surplus and deficit position of single member countries has been considered to be a key indicator of the internal imbalances of the eurozone. German current account surplusses are confronted with current account deficits in the GIIPS countries. But Germany’s current account surplus vis-à-vis these countries has rapidly declined since the outbreak of the global economic and financial crisis mostly caused by the drastic recession in these countries. Furthermore, the near-zero interest rate policy of the ECB has drastically reduced the interest payments from these countries to Germany.     

当前中国国家治理研究述评

本文通过对当前中国国家治理研究的综述和归纳认为,有关当前中国国家治理的研究不可谓不繁荣,这些研究成果既涉及到了宏观的国家治理体制,又涉及到了微观的国家治理方式,更关注到了动态的国家治理转型,全方位、多视角的为我们呈现出了一幅“横看成林侧成峰,远近高低各不同”的国家治理图景。然而,由于拘泥于“时空”限制所带来的理论深度不够和由于拘泥于“范式”限制所带来的研究范式陈旧,当前的中国国家治理研究也呈现出了一定程度的“贫困”。如何突破研究的表象,寻找中国国家治理的内在逻辑？如何突破陈旧的范式,寻找新的解释模型？这都是当前中国国家治理研究必须直面和解决的难题。     

经济改革和收入分配

本文探讨了以下几个问题:收入差距的基本情况、当前收入分配差距的估计结果、针对当前有关中国收入分配差距的一些估计上存在的争论以及对当前收入差距扩大问题的看法。本文指出,对待当前收入分配以及收入差距扩大的问题,要坚持两个原则:第一,应看到收入差距扩大和收入分配不公是不同的问题。第二,城乡收入差距有其历史的原因,应从历史角度来看待和理解当前的收入差距,才能在政策制定上有更加科学的考虑。     

低频干扰电流探头中磁芯材料的选择对其检测性能的影响

本文通过分别对采用铁氧体和铁基非晶合金为磁芯材料的低频干扰电流探头的测试性能的比较分析，讨论了由于铁基非晶合金自身良好的磁性能，使得电流探头在测试低频干扰电流时的测试性能大大提高，从而对于解决目前国内所设计制作的干扰电流探头在测试低频干扰电流时探头灵敏度低、测试不准确这一问题提供了实验依据。     

Dynamics of capital account and current account in Sri Lanka

This paper enquires the dynamics of current account and capital account in Sri Lanka for the period 2001:Q1 to 2016:Q1 and also examines the role of some policy variables such as exchange rate and interest rate in this dynamics. Estimated autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound testing approach to cointegration followed by error correction representation of the ARDL model have found that current account is caused by capital account and exchange rate, where capital account causes to produce a deficit in current account. In the dynamic adjustment of current account due to exchange rate, an evidence of J-curve phenomenon is noticed. Capital account is neither caused by current account nor by exchange rate but interest rate has a positive impact on it. Robustness of these findings is testified by the vector autoregression model, Wald test of Granger causality followed by an impulse response analysis and a variance decomposition analysis. These analyses, in addition, establish a negative impact of interest rate on current account. With the best of knowledge this is the first study that reveals the dynamics of current and capital account of Sri Lanka. Such a dynamics is critical from the policy perspective. Policy makers should caution before capital account liberalization.     

On the connections between intra-temporal and intertemporal trades

This paper develops a new theory of international economics by introducing Heckscher–Ohlin features of intra-temporal trade into an intertemporal trade approach of current account. To do so, we consider a dynamic general equilibrium model with tradable sectors of different factor intensities, which allows for substitution between intertemporal trade (current account adjustment) and intra-temporal trade (goods trade). An economy's response to a shock generally involves a combination of a change in the composition of goods trade and a change in the current account. Flexible factor markets reduce the need for the current account to adjust. On the other hand, the more rigid the factor markets, the larger the size of current account adjustment relative to the volume of goods trade, and the slower the speed of adjustment of the current account towards its long-run equilibrium. We present empirical evidence consistent with the theory.     

An asset-pricing view of external adjustment

Recent literature has argued that conventional measures of external sustainability - the trade balance and current account - are misleading because they omit capital gains on net foreign asset positions. We adjust the definition of the current account to include the capital gains and discuss how this may affect our thinking about external adjustment and sustainability. We do so in the context of a two-country macro-finance model of Pavlova and Rigobon (2008a) that allows exploration of the interconnections between equilibrium portfolios and external accounts' dynamics. We calibrate the model and find that it generates several testable implications, some of which have already been validated empirically. First, we establish dynamic properties of the capital-gains adjusted current account and show that they are fundamentally different from those of the conventional current account. Second, we find that capital gains have a stabilizing effect on the trade balance and the current account. Finally, we demonstrate that in response to a shock, the conventional and the capital-gains adjusted current accounts may move in opposite directions.     

全球经常项目失衡的实证研究

理论研究者和相关政策文献的建议者在分析影响全球经常项目失衡的各种经济变量时提出了不同的观点。本文利用全球范围内52个国家或地区1980年到2004年的经济数据对影响经常项目失衡的多种经济因素进行了实证研究,力图对当前解释全球经常项目失衡原因的各种观点进行实证检验,并结合实证研究结果提出解决当前全球经常项目失衡问题的相关政策建议。     

Does an Overdraft Facility Influence the Customer Costs of Using a Personal Current Account?

This study examines whether personal current accounts offering an overdraft facility cost customers less to use than accounts not offering this service. This analysis uses a UK data set of 222 personal current accounts, recorded monthly between 1995 and 2011, in combination with interest rates from 1200 instant-access deposit accounts offered contemporaneously by the same firms. Our results indicate personal current accounts offering overdraft facilities have higher deposit and payment service costs than accounts not offering this service. The finding is robust to varying service attributes. This result is inconsistent with suggestions that overdraft users have been cross-subsidising other personal current account users as widely reported in theoretical and policy literatures. It is concluded that implicit and inertia costs of personal current account use may be more influential than previously reported in the pricing of these accounts.     

Twin deficit or twin divergence? Fiscal policy, current account, and real exchange rate in the U.S.

In spite of concerns about “twin deficits” (fiscal and the current account deficits) for the United States economy, empirical evidence suggests that “twin divergence” is a more usual feature of the historical data, i.e., when fiscal accounts worsen, the current account improves and vice versa. This paper empirically studies the effects of fiscal policy (government budget deficit shocks) on the current account and the real exchange rate, during the flexible exchange rate regime period. Based on VAR (Vector Auto-Regression) models, we identified “exogenous” fiscal policy shocks after controlling for business cycle effects on fiscal balances. In contrast to the predictions of most theoretical models, the U.S. results suggest that an expansionary fiscal policy shock, or a government budget deficit shock, improve the current account and depreciate the real exchange rate. Increases in private savings and declines in investment contribute to the current account improvement while a nominal exchange rate depreciation, as opposed to a relative price level change, is mainly responsible for the real exchange rate depreciation. The “twin divergence” of fiscal balances and current account balances is also explained by the prevalence of output shocks, i.e. output shocks — more than fiscal shocks — appear to drive the co-movements of the current account and the fiscal balance.     

新会计准则下会计账务处理方法的分析

企业会计核算较以往有相当大的变化,且会对企业的资产及损益产生影响.执行新准则后,职工薪酬核算对企业当期资产、损益的影响比较大,即减少当期费用,增加当期资产.     

Infrastructure or foreign direct investment?: An examination of the implications of MNE strategy for economic development

This paper explores the paradoxical relationship between MNE current strategies and economic development. There is evidence that positive developmental impacts of FDI flows are conditional on high levels of human capital and thus on the existence of ‘good’ infrastructure in recipient countries. In this paper we suggest that current MNE strategies have a negative impact on the development of infrastructure in LDCs. The justification for this argument arises from the low developmental impact of current FDI patterns and from rising costs of attracting increasingly footloose investment. The overall effect is to aggravate government financial constraints on the development of basic infrastructure. We develop propositions for future empirical research. We also consider implications for MNE strategy and argue that current MNE strategies are not only ineffective for delivering poverty reduction but that current strategies in developing countries do not necessarily serve the interest of MNEs either.     

The RMB Debate: Empirical Analysis on the Effects of Exchange Rate Shocks in China and Japan

For a better understanding of the ongoing debates on the RMB, this paper investigates the effects of exchange rate shocks on output and the current account for China and Japan. We use structural vector auto‐regression models and find that yen appreciation reduces current account surpluses while having no strong effect on output in Japan. RMB appreciation, on the other hand, has an insignificant effect on the current account, although it tends to reduce output in China. For China, dollar pricing with vertical trade integration seems responsible for the insignificant effect on the current account.     

一种EMI电流探头的校准方法

对电流探头进行校准，准确地将探头的转换因子定标，是保证EMC检测中多个项目质量的必要条件。在对EMI电流探头的现状进行介绍的基础上，提出了用微波网络分析仪校准电流探头的方法。该方法具有准确、便捷及自动描绘结果曲线的优点。     

Global Imbalances and Petrodollars

Oil exporters have run large current account surpluses. We explore oil exporters’ role in the global imbalances debate. Current account dynamics are estimated for oil‐exporting countries and the rest of the world. We find that fiscal policy has a much stronger effect on the current account of oil exporters than on current accounts of other countries. The current account adjustment of oil‐exporting countries is also faster. Fiscal policy of oil exporters can have a significant and speedy impact on global imbalances. The impact via the adjustment of exchange rates might not be effective.     

Trade Costs and Current Accounts

Are trade cost reductions a plausible explanation for growing global current account imbalances? I advocate that changes in trade costs affect trade and production structures, which is likely to affect national savings and investment. Explicitly adding trade costs à la Markusen and Venables into Jin's framework, this augmented model predicts that trade cost reductions affect the current account through changes in the industrial structure. Empirical evidence confirms that the interaction of trade costs and capital intensity drives current account balances. I also provide evidence that the response of current accounts to changes in trade costs depends on the capital intensity of production and on the depth of regional agreements on trade and factor mobility. Aside from the direct effect generally emphasised in standard macro‐level analysis, changes in production patterns could therefore be an additional channel of impact of regional integration on current accounts.