中国未来不同生育水平下的经济增长后果比较研究

对中国未来90年不同生育水平下的经济增长后果进行了人口-经济动态模拟。在生育水平过低导致劳动力减少过快、人口老龄化过重、劳动负担加重的情况下,将使经济增长大大放缓;而较高的生育水平下,虽然经济增长速度略快,但是人均GDP增长速度慢于中方案生育水平下的经济增长,并且人均GDP水平也具有较大差异。完善当前生育政策,使生育水平稳定在1.9-2.0之间,如此人口在本世纪缓慢地减少也将有利于我国的经济增长和人均生活水平的提高。同时,在低生育水平下,依靠劳动增加和资本积累的粗放型经济增长将不复存在,经济发展方式转变是必然选择,技术创新、技术进步将是未来经济增长首要源泉。     

Does the Mortality Decline Promote Economic Growth?

This paper analyzes qualitatively and quantitatively the effects of declining mortality rates on fertility, education and economic growth. The analysis demonstrates that if individuals are prudent in the face of uncertainty about child survival, a decline in an exogenous mortality rate reduces precautionary demand for children and increases parental investment in each child. Once mortality is endogenized, population growth becomes a hump-shaped function of income per capita. At low levels of income population growth rises as income per capita rises leading to a Malthusian steady-state equilibrium, whereas at high levels of income population growth declines leading to a sustained growth steady-state equilibrium.     

人口转变、人口政策影响经济增长的可持续性研究——基于中西方经验认识基础上的理论分析框架

人口转变、人口政策影响经济增长的可持续性研究具有重要的理论意义和实践价值。本文介绍了相关理论研究成果,提出了研究的基本思路,确立了核心研究范畴、研究方法和研究的主体内容,并针对西部经济社会发展条件的差异,指出了人口转变、人口政策影响经济增长可持续性的区域性研究应把握的重点和难点。     

低速增长的英国人口与经济发展

英国经济在20世纪90年代初期开始呈现经济衰退趋势,1993年下半年,英国在欧盟国家中率先摆脱衰退,使经济重新恢复了活力。1994年以后,英国经济进入低速增长的态势,进入21世纪以后基本上稳步增长。在经济发展的过程中,英国的人口增长相对比较稳定,处于长期低增长的趋势,特别是经济活动人口的稳定增长在一定程度上促进了英国的经济增长。     

中国省域人口迁移的经济增长效应——基于内生增长视角的实证分析

陈述了改革开放以来我国的人口迁移规律,从理论上分析了人口迁移的动态变迁过程,并结合一般均衡理论、新古典增长模型说明了人口迁移过程中的经济发展水平变动特征。构建含带人口迁移因素的内生增长模型,对人口迁移的内生增长作用机制作出了解析,并以此为基础实证分析了我国省域近10年来人口迁移对经济增长的内生影响特征与变动趋势。二元人口迁移存在明确的动态均衡过程,受其影响,会导致城乡两部门出现产出的一般均衡状态,而这一状态符合新古典增长模型所设定的假设条件与稳态结论。从实际情况看,我国省域间的城乡二元人口净迁移具有明确的经济增长效应,同时不同省份、四大区域总体上表现出增长效应递减特征。     

西部地区人口迁移与经济增长关系的演进分析

笔者首先对改革开放以来西部地区人口迁移的规律和特征做出分析和判断,在此基础上运用内生人口迁移经济增长模型,实际测算了近十几年来西部各省区省际人口迁移对经济增长的影响强度。结果显示,各省区的人均产出与人口净迁移率之间存在较高的正相关性,但人口迁移对经济影响的强度有所差别,从整体来看,西南地区净迁移人口的作用更大一些。此外,没有任何迹象表明省际人口迁移伴随有地区间经济发展水平的收敛(趋同),相反,正是因为地区间经济发展水平的不断扩大,才会形成以四川、新疆、陕西等为流入中心的省际迁移人口聚集地。     

Population and Economic Growth Under Different Growth Engines

Using a growth model with physical capital accumulation, human capital investment and horizontal R&D activity, this paper proposes an alternative channel through which an increase in the population growth rate may yield a non‐uniform (i.e., a positive, negative, or neutral) impact on the long‐run growth rate of per‐capita GDP, as available empirical evidence seems mostly to suggest. The proposed mechanism relies on the nature of the process of economic growth (whether it is fully or semi‐endogenous), and the peculiar engine(s) driving economic growth (human capital investment, R&D activity, or both). The model also explains why in the long term the association between population growth and productivity growth may ultimately be negative when R&D is an engine of economic growth.     

Population Density,Pollution and Growth

We analyze a growth model where the damage of pollution depends on population density and the character of pollution. From the steady state rates of change, in the social optimum, of a neoclassical and a semi-endogenous growth model respectively, we conclude that the less responsive the damage of pollution is to population density, the more likely is a development path with positive growth in consumption per capita and declining perceived pollution per capita. Non-awareness of the character of pollution may thus give suboptimal solutions. In particular, the commonly held view that pollution is a pure public bad may lead to growth-rate targets that are lower than optimal. Finally, we find that the character of pollution does not influence the transitional dynamics qualitatively.     

Population Growth, Technological Adoption, and Economic Outcomes in the Information Era

In this paper we argue that population growth, through its interaction with recent technological and organizational developments, may account for many cross-country differences in economic outcomes observed among industrialized countries over the past 20 years. In particular, our model illustrates how a large decrease in the price of information technology can create a comparative advantage for high population growth economies to jump ahead in the adoption of computer- and skill-intensive modes of production. They do this as a means of countering their relative scarcity of physical capital. The predictions of the model are that, over the span of the information revolution, industrial countries with higher population growth rates will experience a more pronounced adoption of new technology, a better performance in terms of increased employment rates, a poorer performance in terms of wage growth for less skilled workers, a larger increase in the service sector, and a larger increase in the returns to education. We provide preliminary evidence in support of the theory based on an examination of broad wage movements, employment changes, and computer adoption patterns for a set of OECD countries. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: O33, J31, J11.     

Industry and the Family: Two Engines of Growth

We generalize the class of endogenous growth models in which the scale of the economy has level rather than growth effects, and study the implications of different demographic and technological factors when both fertility choice and research effort are endogenous. The model incorporates two dimensions of technological progress: vertical (quality of goods) and horizontal (variety of goods). Both dimensions contribute to productivity growth but are driven by different processes and hence respond differently to changes in fundamentals. Specifically, while unbounded vertical progress is feasible, the scale of the economy limits the variety of goods. Incorporating a linearity in reproduction generates steady-state population growth and variety expansion. We thus have two engines of growth generating dynamics that we compare with observed changes in demographics, market structure, and patterns of growth. Numerical solutions yield the important insight that, while endogenous, fertility responds very little to industrial policies. Demographic shocks, in contrast, have substantial effects on growth.     

Recent Technological and Economic Change among Industrialized Countries: Insights from Population Growth*

Cross‐country observations on the effects of population growth are used to show why differences in rates of growth in working‐age population may be a key to understanding differences in economic performance across industrialized countries over the period 1975–1997 versus 1960–1974. In particular, we argue that countries with lower rates of adult population growth adopted new capital‐intensive technologies more quickly than their high population growth counterparts, therefore allowing them to reduce their work time without deterioration of growth in output‐per‐adult.     

黄冈市人口增长对经济发展影响的研究

通过近年来黄冈市人口增长与经济发展的现状分析,运用主成分分析法和多元线性回归分析法,建立了黄冈市人口增长对经济发展影响的回归模型,结合实证分析的结果,揭示黄冈市人口增长对其经济发展的影响,为有关经济政策的制定和解决人口问题提供参考。     

资源约束条件下长期经济增长的动力机制--基于内生增长理论模型的研究

文章通过将存量有限且不可再生的自然资源引入生产函数,构建了一个产品种类扩张型的四部门内生增长模型。首先,通过对模型的市场均衡分析,给出了平衡增长路径的经济增长率以及均衡解存在的一个充分性条件,系统地探讨了在人口增长、自然资源不断耗竭的约束条件下内生技术进步促进长期经济增长的动力机制;其次,通过对平衡增长路径进行比较静态分析,讨论了各经济变量以及经济环境参数的变化对稳态增长率的影响效应及其作用机制,并给出其经济学解释;最后是综合结论及政策涵义。     

“五普”至“六普”期间中国城镇人口的增长构成

利用2000年和2010年的全国人口普查资料、2005年全国1%人口抽样调查资料以及国家统计局公布的相关人口数据,对第五次人口普查和第六次人口普查期间中国城镇人口的增长构成进行了估算。在"五普"至"六普"期间中国城镇人口的增长构成发生了很大的变化,具体表现在人口从农村向城镇的迁移已成为中国城镇人口增长的主要来源。在面临中国城镇人口增长模式发生深刻变革的时候,中国亟需解决的问题是从政策和制度层面为从农村转移到城镇的人口的就业、住房、医疗、教育和社会保障等创造良好的条件,使他们在城镇里安居乐业,从而巩固人口迁移对中国城市化的贡献,使中国的城市化顺利发展。     

Joan Robinson on Population Growth

Joan Robinson’s views on population growth have received scant attention. The aim of this article is to summarize and evaluate aspects of Robinson’s perspectives on population. The population question is considered in terms of four specific topics: the problem of growth, the labor market, effective demand and economic development. The article also interprets Robinson’s approach in light of the endogenous theory of economic growth in order to more explicitly elucidate Robinson’s own statements. It is concluded that an economic interpretation of population growth based on Robinson’s approach requires some specific adaptations if it is to be feasible. It is hoped that this line of approach is useful to scholars of the history of economic thought, economic development or theory of economic growth.     

Technological Change and Population Growth

What is the relationship between the rate of population growth and the rate of technological change? To answer this question, I discuss a model where increasing returns generate long-run growth but where the scale effect is absent. More precisely, the model predicts that steady-state productivity growth does not depend on population size because an increase in population size leads to entry. The resulting crowding-in effect generates dispersion of R&;D resources across firms and offsets the positive effect of the scale of the economy on the returns to R&;D. Changes in population size have only transitory effects on productivity growth. This desirable property allows me to introduce population growth in the model and study the effects of demographic shocks. The predicted patterns of growth, entry, and change in industrial structure match the experience of several industrialized countries. In addition, they match several of the empirical observations cited as evidence against standard models of endogenous technological change.     

Skill Composition,Fertility, and Economic Growth

While high fertility persists in the poorest countries and fertility declines with per capita income in developing countries, fertility and per capita income are now positively associated across most developed countries. This paper presents a model where a U‐shaped relationship between overall fertility and per capita income reflects within country differences in workforce skill composition and household choice of occupation, fertility, and childrearing. The fraction of skilled workers rises with economic growth. By allowing for both differences in the fertility of skilled and unskilled workers and purchased childrearing inputs, we explain a poverty trap with high fertility, fertility decline with economic development, and the possible reversal of fertility decline in a developed economy where most workers are skilled.     

充分兑现人口红利实现经济持续增长

经济发展和人口问题密切相关.改革开放以来,中国经济的高速发展,离不开人口红利的贡献.人口转变过程的特殊性,使得中国的人口红利来得早,也去得快.如何抓住这短暂的历史机遇,如何挖掘人口红利的巨大效应,从而发挥劳动力资源优势,提高劳动力配置效率,这不仅是中国获得经济持续高速发展的重要手段,也是迎接老龄化社会到来的当务之急.实现劳动力充分就业,消除城乡流动的障碍,提高劳动力素质,选择可持续的养老保障模式应成为促进人口红利兑现的重要途径.     

我国人口惯性的区域差异研究

使用Preston法分析了1980-2000年我国各省人口惯性的变化趋势,探讨了地区间人口惯性的差异程度。1982-2000年中国各省人口惯性对人口增长的影响正在急剧减弱,各个省份正在从强烈正增长惯性类别向负增长惯性类别聚集。高达70%的省份的人口惯性已经告别人口强正增长惯性,北京、天津、上海、辽宁四个省份已经呈现人口负增长惯性。1982-2000年中国各省人口惯性呈现出下降速度快、幅度大的趋势。提醒人们注意到我国人口惯性在地区间的差异性,及早关注一些已经或即将出现负人口惯性增长地区的未来人口态势。     

人口转变、经济发展与卫生支出增长——以人口普查为基础的因素分解

采用因素分解方法考察中国卫生支出在过去近30年的增长特点,将卫生总费用增长及卫生总费用占GDP比重的变化,分解为人口数量增长、人口结构变动、健康模式变化和非人口学因素影响四个独立可比的部分。结果显示,尽管非人口学因素决定着卫生总费用增长,人口学因素却主导着卫生总费用占GDP比重的变化。人口学因素中,人口总量缓慢增长和人口结构快速转变推动着卫生支出规模不断上升,但健康模式变化显著削弱了这种趋势。