Networks and equity market integration: European evidence

Deregulation, globalization, and technological developments have altered the business strategies of stock exchanges around the world. We investigate whether the adoption of network strategies by stock exchanges creates additional value in the provision of trading services. Using unbalanced panel data from all major European exchanges over the period 1996-2000, we examine the consequences of network cooperation on a number of stock market performance measures. We show that adopting a network strategy is associated with higher market capitalization, lower transaction costs, higher growth, and enhanced international stock market integration.     

Political influence in hedge fund activism: Causal evidence from U.S. gubernatorial election

This study examines the causal impacts of political influence on hedge fund activism in an exogenous setting of U.S. gubernatorial election. Local incumbent politicians have incentives to protect local inefficient firms from being targeted by activists because activism could lead to divestment and local worker layoffs. And such incentives can become weaker in election years because political competition increases the incumbent politician’s accountability to broader groups of stakeholders. Consistent with this prediction, the likelihood of local firms being targeted by activists is shown to be significantly higher during election years. Moreover, the firm’s political connections mitigate the effects of election, suggesting that politicians still maintain protection to connected firms. Further cross-sectional tests show that the effects of election are stronger (1) for firms with lower labor intensity, severer problem of free cash flow and lower efficiency, and (2) when the political competition is fiercer. Additional tests reveal that hedge fund activism enhances the target firm’s operating performance and creates larger value for investors when it faces weaker political influence. To sum up, our findings suggest that political influence affects hedge fund activism and the activists strategically adjust the timing of initiating campaigns according to the changes of such influence.     

Forecasting and Arbitrage of the Nikkei Stock Index Futures: An Application of Backpropagation Networks

A neural network model was used in forecasting the basis in SIMEX Nikkei Stock Index futures. Results for out of sample show that the neural network forecast performance was better than that of the ARIMA model. Also, a two-way ANOVA confirms that the employed neural network was able to provide the trader with more arbitrage profits than the traditional cost-of-carry model even though it observed relative less profitable arbitrage timing. The results can be attributed to the network';s higher ability to capture nonlinear market patterns.     

Spatial productivity spillovers from public infrastructure: Evidence from state highways

Is public-sector infrastructure a key determinant of productivity? Traditional, project-based analyses of benefits and costs typically do not find large rates of return. Proponents of infrastructure spending instead point to regressionbased analyses of the links between private productivity and public infrastructure that imply large productivity effects from public spending. The disparity in estimated returns is often attributed to geographic spillovers in productivity benefits that are not captured by disaggregated analyses. We examine the degree to which state highways provide productivity benefits beyond the narrow confines of each state's borders. Despite the fact that state highways-especially the interstate highway system-are designed at least in part with interstate linkages in mind, we find no evidence of quantitatively important productivity spillovers.     

A further inquiry into the scholarly productivity of academic accountants: Twenty years of evidence from classes of 1980-82

Scholarly productivity is a key component of faculty evaluation at many universities. In fact, under current accreditation standards promulgated by the AACSB, faculty members must remain academically qualified in research. Here we provide evidence regarding faculty research productivity. The determinants of faculty productivity are estimated with data spanning a 20 year period for 487 accounting doctoral graduates during the years of 1980-82. Sample statistics reveal that a relatively small portion of researchers produce over half of the sample's articles. Also, our regression results suggest that top-tier institutions of first hire, larger department size of initial hire, and the experience within academic ranks are all positive determinants of scholarly productivity. Conversely, research output is reduced with increased time spent teaching and accepting an initial hire at a public rather than a private institution.     

财政支出、银行信贷与经济增长——来自2008年汶川大地震的新因果证据

学术界就财政支出与银行信贷如何影响经济增长这一问题一直未能达成共识.本文将2008年汶川大地震作为研究窗口,在财政支出和银行信贷由于震后出台的行政命令与政策外生化的研究前提下,综合使用合成控制法(SCM)、系统广义矩估计(System GMM)、回归控制法(RCM)、交叉滞后模型(Cross-lagged Panel Model)等方法,检验了地震后财政支出、银行信贷和经济增长的具体变化以及相互作用方向.研究发现:尽管汶川地震后财政支出和银行信贷显著增加,促进了经济增长,但由于震后四川省的直接经济损失较大,最终四川省在短期内GDP明显减少.这一发现明确了财政支出、银行信贷以及经济增长之间的因果关系与作用方向:首先,在中国,财政支出与经济增长之间的因果关系符合“凯恩斯假设”,即财政支出的增加“因果性地”决定了GDP的增长.其次,增加银行信贷能够“因果性地”促进GDP增长.最后,财政支出增加促进了银行信贷的扩张,而非公共投资“挤出”了私人投资.     

Investment financing: evidence from Korea

This study examines the relative importance of various forms of capital in financing investments by Korean firms. Our results from the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) method indicate that, unlike U.S. firms, Korean firms rely substantially on cash holdings to finance investments. These results also suggest that Korean firms use long‐term debt more actively than equity issuance to finance investments. Subgroup analyses show that large firms and Chaebol‐affiliated firms use more long‐term debt but less equity issuance than comparison firms do, suggesting that debt capacity allows firms to reduce the use of equity issuance. However, there is little evidence that financing decisions are driven by information asymmetry. The results from the quantile regression (QR) method suggest that Korean firms tend to use debt capital more than they do equity capital at low and medium levels of investments, while their reliance on equity capital increases at high levels of investments.     

Higher moments and beta asymmetry: evidence from Australia

We examine whether systematic higher moments capture beta asymmetry in an asset pricing model whereby the conditional beta of a risky asset increases (decreases) during a bear (bull) market state. We first provide a simple conceptual outline from the microeconomic literature to show that beta asymmetry is driven by time‐varying higher‐order risk preferences (prudence and temperance) across different market states. We then empirically relate these higher‐order risk preferences to systematic skewness and systematic kurtosis. We find that beta asymmetry in Australian stock returns cannot be explained by Carhart (1997) 4‐factor model but is subsumed by systematic higher moments.     

Propping and tunneling: Empirical evidence from Japanese keiretsu

We examine the response of horizontal and vertical keiretsu to the changing economic and regulatory climate in Japan from 1987 to 2001. We find evidence of profit tunneling of more weakly affiliated keiretsu firms during strong economic times. We observe propping of weakly aligned firms during recession. Many horizontal keiretsu firms strengthened their degree of adhesion to the horizontal keiretsu in response to increasingly tightened credit conditions post-1991. The motivation behind strengthened affiliation appears primarily linked to the goal of overcoming financial constraints by accessing the internal capital market of the business group.     

Securitization and financial solvency: empirical evidence from Portugal

This paper analyses the effect of securitization issues on the solvency of Portuguese financial institutions. For this purpose, we use an unbalanced panel model estimated using GMM methods and find that securitization has a slightly positive impact on the soundness of the issuing entity. We study 35 financial entities and 60 traditional securitizations issued by 9 originators between 2001 and 2013. The analysis reveals that the financial entities’ soundness improved slightly, showing that securitization enhanced the quality of the originators’ portfolios and increased the regulatory capital requirements. We also found that efficiency and profitability improve the risk-adjusted ROAA and that efficiency increases regulatory capital requirements. The robustness analysis confirms the positive effect of securitization on solvency, where both credit quality and liquidity are shown to be significant variables.     

Voluntary Causal Disclosures: Tendencies and Capital Market Reaction

In this study, we provide empirical evidence on whether voluntarily disclosed causal attributions made in management earnings forecasts are credible by investigating the conditions under which such attributions are made and the extent to which security price responses are associated with attribution existence. We find that causal attributions are more likely to be made when forecast news is bad (relative to good), and that the type of attribution made is more likely to be external (internal) for bad (good) forecast news. Incorporating the existence and type of attribution into models that explain announcement period three-day cumulative abnormal returns yields significant effects for attribution incidence and type after controlling for unexpected earnings and forecast type (e.g., point, range, etc.). Consistent with the idea that attributions enhance the credibility or precision of management forecasts, attribution disclosure enhances price reactions per dollar of unexpected earnings conveyed in a management forecast.     

Causal layered analysis: Poststructuralism as method

Causal layered analysis is offered as a new futures research method. It utility is not in predicting the future but in creating transformative spaces for the creation of alternative futures. Causal layered analysis consists of four levels: the litany, social causes, discourse/worldview and myth/metaphor. The challenge is to conduct research that moves up and down these layers of analysis and thus is inclusive of different ways of knowing.     

Covid-19 and heuristic biases: evidence from India

Stock markets worldwide have witnessed high volatility during the year 2020 owing to the eruption of Covid-19. Due to the world’s unprecedented economic challenges, this study could potentially guide financial advisors and individual investors in dealing with pandemics. An association between investors’ perception toward the intensity of Covid-19 and heuristic biases is analyzed using the responses of 290 stock investors of National Capital Region (NCR), India. The data are validated through Cronbach’s alpha, and the model fit is analyzed using EFA. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) is employed to investigate the relationship between Covid-19 and heuristic biases. Covid-19 does not have any influence on the overconfidence of investors. A significant positive relationship is found between Covid-19 and the remaining three heuristics, i.e., availability, anchoring, and representativeness. The present study analyzes the association between Covid-19 and specific investors’ bias only and should not be interpreted for causality. The study has the potential to guide investors in understanding the errors they are making while investing during the pandemic and the ways to deal with them. The study could provide insights to the financial advisors in understanding their customers. The implications of the study may include inputs of the errors committed by them during the pandemic. Despite the fact that an enormous amount of literature exists in the field of investors’ sentiment, a scarcity of literature is available that measures the relationship between heuristic biases and the perceived impact of the pandemic. The current study attempts to fill this gap in the literature.

     

Epilogue: health care reform and productivity

Only a health care system that balances the best interests of consumers with those of employers and government payers will ultimately provide quality care at manageable costs. These need not be opposing interests.     

International income-shifting regulations: Empirical evidence from Australia and Canada

This study examines market reactions to two different approaches to reduce income shifting in an international setting. The two methods are described and event studies are performed using stock market data from Canada and Australia. Samples of companies from both countries are partitioned into firms predicted to be affected versus unaffected by each country's event. Australia's regulation taxes profits arising in low-tax subsidiaries at Australian rates. Canada's method defines acceptable transfer prices (arm's-length transactions) and describes enforcement and audit policies. We find evidence of stock market reactions on some of the event dates for Australian and Canadian firms affected by these two approaches.     

Executive incentives and payout policy: Empirical evidence from Europe

We investigate how corporate payout policy is influenced by executive incentives, i.e. stock and option holdings, stock option deltas and stock-based pay-performance sensitivity for 1,650 publicly listed firms from the UK, Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain, over the period from 2002 to 2009. Our results show that executive stock option holdings and stock option deltas are associated with lower dividend payments in our sample of European countries, where we do not observe any presence of dividend protection for executive stock options. We find that this relationship is mainly driven by exercisable stock options and by options that are in the money. Additionally, we observe that executive stock option holdings and stock option deltas have a negative impact on total payout, suggesting that executives do not substitute share repurchases for dividends. Furthermore, the fraction of share repurchases in total payout increases as executive stock option holdings and stock option deltas increase. Finally, our results show that executive share ownership and stock-based pay-performance sensitivity may mitigate agency conflicts by significantly increasing the level of total payout.     

Option prices and stock market momentum: evidence from China

Option prices tend to be correlated to past stock market returns due to market imperfections. We unprecedentedly examine this issue on the SSE 50 ETF option in the Chinese derivatives market. To measure the price pressure in the options market, we construct an implied volatility spread based on pairs of the SSE 50 ETF option with identical expiration dates and strike prices. By regressing the implied volatility spread on past stock returns, we find that past stock returns exert a strong influence on the pricing of index options. Specifically, we find that SSE 50 ETF calls are significantly overvalued relative to SSE 50 ETF puts after stock price increases and the reverse is also true after the stock price decreases. Moreover, we validate the momentum effects in the underlying stock market to be responsible for the price pressure. These findings are both economically and statistically significant and have important implications.     

Executive compensation and earnings management: Empirical evidence from Japan

This study investigates the relation between discretionary accounting choices and executive compensation in Japanese firms. The results show that the use of discretionary accruals increases executive compensation. The analyses also show that firm managers receiving no bonus adopt income-decreasing accruals and extraordinary items. In particular, evidence shows that negative extraordinary items are strongly associated with no bonus payment. Finally, the research indicates that the association between discretionary accruals and executive bonus varies depending upon the circumstances of the firm. This study contributes to the literature on earnings management from an international comparative perspective since most previous studies on earnings management and executive compensation have focused on U.S. firms.     

Non-compliance notifications and taxpayer strategic behavior: evidence from Ecuador

International Tax and Public Finance - This paper examines the effect of enforcement on taxpayer behavior using administrative data from Ecuador. To overcome confounding factors, a regression...     

Multinational corporations and tax havens: evidence from country-by-country reporting

International Tax and Public Finance - A growing body of economics literature shows that multinational corporations (MNCs) shift their profits to tax havens. We contribute to this evidence by...