Market misvaluation and corporate innovation: “Catering” or “risk aversion”?—Empirical evidence from China capital market

This paper tests how market misvaluation affects corporate innovation. Unlike the “catering effect” observed in the US, we find that estimated stock overvaluation in China is strongly negatively associated with corporate innovation, conforming to our “risk-aversion” hypothesis. In China, misvaluation affects innovation via finance and management behavior channels. The effect is more significant in non-state-owned corporations than in state-owned corporations. Stock turnover rate and ownership concentration play moderating roles in the effect. The evidence sheds light on the relationship between market risks and corporate innovation in an emerging market.     

Investor mood and the determinants of stock prices: an experimental analysis

We examine, in a controlled experimental setting, whether changes in investor mood cause changes in the determinants of stock prices. Our results show that a deterioration in mood, reflected in the negative dimensions of mood state, increases the level of risk aversion in male, but not female, investors. We find no evidence to suggest that a change in mood impacts on investors' forecasts of future earnings or future cash flows. By establishing the causal impact of a change in mood on risk aversion, our study provides support for archival research that relates various market anomalies to investor mood.     

Risk aversion in the expected and the nonexpected utility functions

If asset returns are i.i.d. over time, the preference parameter in the time additive von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility is the risk aversion coefficient in the Epstein-Zin nonexpected utility. By distinguishing between risk aversion and intertemporal substitution, this article provides an explanation about the observed discrepancy in the empirical estimates of the risk aversion coefficient.     

Risk Aversion,Uncertain Information,and Market Efficiency

Abstract. We reexamine and extend tests of the uncertain information hypothesis (UIH) proposed by Brown, Harlow, and Tinic (1988, 1993). We find that their empirical results are sensitive to the sampling procedure employed and that their particular methodology does not sufficiently distinguish between event and nonevent periods. When the sampling procedure is modified to identify only relatively large, isolated events, the test results generally do not support the UIH. Instead, significant price shocks are consistently followed by short-lived price reversals. We observe this behavior following positive and negative events regardless of whether the event is classified as risk increasing or risk decreasing.     

Strategic IPOs and product market competition

We examine firms' incentives to go public in the presence of product market competition. As a result of their greater ability to diversify idiosyncratic risk in the capital market, public firms' owners tolerate higher profit variability than owners of private firms. Consequently, public firms adopt riskier and more aggressive output market strategies than private firms, which improves the competitive position of the former vis-à-vis the latter. This strategic benefit of being public, and thus, the proportion of public firms in an industry, is shown to be positively related to the degree of competitive interaction among firms in the output market, to demand uncertainty, and to the idiosyncratic portion of this uncertainty. Additional empirical predictions concern the effect of a firm's initial public offering on its market share and on its rivals' valuations. We test the model's predictions and find empirical support for most of them.     

Risk,uncertainty and monetary policy

The VIX, the stock market option-based implied volatility, strongly co-moves with measures of the monetary policy stance. When decomposing the VIX into two components, a proxy for risk aversion and expected stock market volatility (“uncertainty”), we find that a lax monetary policy decreases both risk aversion and uncertainty, with the former effect being stronger. The result holds in a structural vector autoregressive framework, controlling for business cycle movements and using a variety of identification schemes for the vector autoregression in general and monetary policy shocks in particular. The effect of monetary policy on risk aversion is also apparent in regressions using high frequency data.     

Labor income dynamics at business-cycle frequencies: Implications for portfolio choice

Young agents with low wealth-income ratios counter factually hold more stock than young, rich agents and old agents using the standard portfolio choice model with i.i.d. stock returns and labor income. This paper matches the countercyclical volatility and procyclical mean of U.S. labor income and finds that, consistent with U.S. data, young, poor agents now hold less stock than both young, rich agents and old agents, and no stock a large fraction of the time. Our results suggest that the predictability of labor income growth at a business-cycle frequency, particularly the countercyclical variation in volatility, plays an important role in a young agent's decision making about her portfolio's stock holding.     

建立和发展我国完善的股票期权市场

股票期权是人们进行投融资业务不可缺少的工具，但在我国由于各种条件的限制，并未出现真正意义上的股票期权市场。本着重分析了我国在建立和发展股票期权市场的必要性及可行性，并在此基础上提出了有关的战略规划。     

Individual financial risk tolerance and the global financial crisis

We investigate individual investors’ tolerance towards financial risk by focusing on changes associated with the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2007–2009. Financial risk tolerance (FRT) is analysed longitudinally controlling for demographic, socio‐economic and regional variations. In absolute terms, the change in FRT is small and contrasts with a popular view that risk tolerance is an elastic psychological state overly influenced by the pervading market conditions. Even in the presence of significant financial events, FRT tends to be a reasonably stable attribute in the shorter term but possibly influenced and reshaped by events more gradually over time.     

The Relative Effect of Property Type and Country Factors in Reduction of Risk of Internationally Diversified Real Estate Portfolios

We examine and test the merits of diversifying portfolios of real estate securities internationally and across property types. Our analysis covers the period January 1990 through July 2005. Using data from the Global Property Research GPR 250 Property Securities Index, which has monthly prices for five property type indexes in 21 countries, we decompose country and property type sources of variation in real estate security returns. We find that property type effects are smaller than country effects. Property type specialization explains only 6% of the variance of national real estate securities index returns. Because property type effects are so small, country diversification is a more effective tool for achieving risk reduction than property type diversification. In addition, we find evidence that the relative importance of country effects is decreasing while that of industry effects is increasing. However, country effects continue to dominate property type effects.     

信用风险缓释工具的经济意义及其发展建议

信用风险缓释工具(CRM)是中国金融体系通过金融创新、以市场手段管理信用风险的重要里程碑。与欧美国家的同类产品CDS相比,CRM有其独特性。本文首先介绍CRM及其交易,然后从金融创新、银行稳健性、债券市场发展、信用共担体系完善等方面阐述了CRM在推动中国金融市场深化方面的积极作用。最后,本文针对CRM市场发展中暴露出来的市场主体同质化、产品设计单一、定价机制不健全、监管问题提出了改进意见。     

风险厌恶、失望厌恶和期货套期保值

本文考察失望厌恶对期货套期保值的影响。我们把一个不变的绝对风险厌恶（CARA）效用函数放进Gul（1991）的失望厌恶框架之内。它显示出，一个更厌恶失望的套期保值者会比一个厌恶失望程度较低的套期保值者选择一个更接近于最小方差套期保值的最优期货头寸。当套期保值者厌恶风险的程度较低时，失望厌恶的效应更强。对失望很小程度的厌恶会使一个接近于风险中性的套期保值者持有一个截然不同的头寸。此外，一个更厌恶风险或失望的套期保值者会有一个较低的参考点reference point。数字上的结果显示，厌恶失望的套期保值者的参考点往往会低于传统的厌恶损失的套期保值者的参考点。于是，厌恶失望的套期保值者的行动会更加保守，利用机会牟利的行为会少于传统的厌恶损失的套期保值者。     

A note on risk aversion and herd behavior in financial markets

We show that differences in market participants risk aversion can generate herd behavior in stock markets where assets are traded sequentially. This in turn prevents learning of market’s fundamentals. These results are obtained without introducing multidimensional uncertainty or transaction cost. JEL Classification G1 · G14 · C11 · D82     

The joint influence of financial risk perception and risk tolerance on individual investment decision‐making

The increasing complexity of the investment environment has accelerated the need for better quality financial advice services. Central to quality advice is advisers’ accurate assessment of their clients’ risk characteristics. Typically a client's risk characteristic is assessed by measuring the client's risk tolerance but not risk perception. To assess whether this practice fails to fully capture the client's risk profile, we explore both risk tolerance and risk perception in the investment decision‐making context. Using Australian online survey data of financial adviser clients (n = 364), our results reveal that risk tolerance influences risky‐asset allocation directly and indirectly through risk perception. These results thus clarify the joint role of both risk constructs in the investment making decision and highlight the importance of assessing both in the provision of client financial advice services. Importantly, our results validate a new comprehensive risk perception measure applicable in the financial advice context.     

On a Non-linear Risk Analysis for Stock Market Indexes

We propose a method to detect early signs of a potential major crash in the market from only the information of the time series representing its stock market data. As reinforcement of the abnormality test Test(ABN) developed in Okabe, Matsuura, and Klimek (International Journal of Pure and Applied Mathematics, 3, 443–484, 2002), we introduce in this paper a risk graph to measure abnormality of time series by using the non-linear prediction analysis in the theory of KM₂O-Langevin equations. By applying it to real data of stock market indexes on the Black Monday of 1987 and those during the past 7 years from January 2000 to December 2006, we investigate whether we can detect early signs of a potential major crash in the market by watching the behavior of the risk graph. An erratum to this article can be found at     

A Model Forecasting Risk for Emerging Market Currencies

In this paper, we propose a risk forecasting model for emerging market currencies. Our model is based on the Markov regime switch which is constructed by exploiting daily equity market information, and we show that our model outperforms the existing model using macroeconomic information. We evaluate it by the performance measures, the goodness-of-fit and the Wilcoxon rank-sum test.     

Firm diversification and earnings management: evidence from seasoned equity offerings

Popular press suggests that diversified firms are more aggressive in managing earnings than non-diversified firms. We examine this claim in the seasoned equity offering (SEO) setting, where firms have been shown to have the incentive to manage earnings upwards. Using the cross-sectional modified Jones [(1991) J Accounting Res 29:193–228] model to measure discretionary current accruals, we find that discretionary current accruals are higher among diversified firms than in non-diversified ones. Our evidence is consistent with the view that the extent of firm diversification is directly related to the degree of earnings management. We further show that diversified issuers with high discretionary accruals underperformed other SEO firms.