长江三角洲农业现代化评价及空间分异

农业现代化性是促进农民增加收入的基本途径,从空间自相关的视角来揭示农业现代化的空间分异规律,对区域农业现代化优化路径具有现实意义。以长江三角洲地区为例,从农业产出水平、农业科技水平、农民生活水平及农业生态水平4个维度构建农业现代化的评价指标体系,利用熵值法测度1998~2013年区域农业现代化水平;通过GIS空间分析、变异系数CV及空间自相关分析模型的Moran’s I指数、G*指数对长江三角洲农业现代化进行了评价及空间分异特征分析。结果表明:1998~2013年长三角农业现代化水平不断提升,农业现代化东西方向递增,南北方向倒U分布;长江三角洲农业现代化表现出空间自相关分布模式,农业现代化热点区主要分布在苏锡沪地区,次热区主要分布在宁镇常及杭绍甬地区,次冷区主要分布在通泰扬及嘉湖地区,冷点区主要分布在舟台地区;最后,有针对的提出长江三角洲农业现代化提升的相应建议。     

基于DEA的传统农耕地区农业生产效率测度*——以皖北为例

［目的］农业生产效率是衡量农业生产的重要标准,其生产效率测度结果对研究区域农业经济发展具有重要意义。［方法］文章以皖北农耕地区为研究对象,通过采集2017年统计年鉴的相关数据,构建农业生产绩效评价指标体系,并引入虚拟决策单元,运用数据包络分析（DEA）方法,从自评和他评的角度对2017年皖北各县级单元的农业经济生产效率进行测度,并基于结果的迥异进行效率、冗余及空间分异的分析。［结果］皖北地区农业生产整体效率较低,呈现出粗放式的农业生产模式; 各种投入要素配置不尽合理,皆存在不同程度上的冗余,整体上看塑料薄膜冗余最高、化肥施用的冗余最低; 空间分异显著,南北表现为由北向南逐渐降低的“S”型趋势、东西呈现出两端高中间低的扁平状“v”型空间分异特征。［结论］粗放式的农业生产导致了皖北农业生产效率整体较低,应完善生产要素配置,大力推进农业现代化建设,促进皖北地区农业整体性协调发展,提升地区农业生产效率。     

安徽农业生产现代化水平研究

通过数据测算发现,2011年安徽省农业生产现代化水平进入了起步阶段,但安徽省不同地区间的农业生产现代化水平差异较大。建议政府要加强区域间政策的平衡性,加强皖北地区农业生产现代化发展速度,加快安徽农业机械化发展速度,提高发达地区农业废弃物综合利用率,改善欠发达地区农村人居环境。     

安徽省乡村人居环境评价及空间格局分析

目的 基于“三生”空间视角评价乡村人居环境建设水平并分析其空间格局特征，对制定差异化的乡村发展定位及实现乡村人居环境优化具有重要借鉴意义。方法 文章构建安徽省乡村人居环境评价指标体系，从生产空间、生活空间、生态空间三大维度系统评价安徽省乡村人居环境，并基于全局Moran''s I 指数分析其乡村人居环境的空间格局特征。结果 （1）建模评价发现，2018年安徽省乡村人居环境整体水平空间分布高值区主要集中在皖中、皖南地区，低值区主要集中在皖北地区。其中，乡村生产发展水平空间分布高值区主要集中在合肥、马鞍山、滁州，低值区主要集中在淮北、阜阳、亳州、六安、安庆；乡村生活保障水平空间分布高值区主要集中在“合芜马”皖江经济带，低值区主要集中在阜阳、六安；乡村生态环境水平的空间分布高值区主要集中在黄山、宣城及“合芜马”，低值区主要集中在六安、阜阳、宿州。（2）空间格局分析发现，乡村人均环境水平的全局Moran''s I为0.462 5。其中，合肥、马鞍山、芜湖为高水平聚类区（HH），阜阳、亳州、淮北、宿州为低水平聚类区（LL）。结论 （1）2018年安徽省乡村人居环境水平存在较大空间分异，呈现“中部与南部偏高、北部偏低”的特征；（2）安徽省乡村人居环境水平呈正的空间自相关，其中生态环境水平与生活保障水平互为关联，两者空间分布特征也较为吻合。     

湖南省休闲农庄空间分布研究

［目的］通过分析湖南省星级休闲农庄的空间分布特征，探究其分布规律，以期为区域规划与休闲农业发展提供借鉴与参考。［方法］以湖南省内971个评定的星级农庄为样本，运用最近邻指数、地理集中指数、洛伦茨曲线、基尼系数及核密度估算等方法进行空间分布类型及均衡程度测度； 运用缓冲区与叠加分析，进行农庄相对于主要客源市场的空间分布测度。［结果］（1）湖南省星级休闲农庄空间分布整体呈现出“东密西疏，区域集聚”特征； （2）整体空间分布类型为集聚型，市州区域分布较不均衡，具有围绕市州中心城市集聚分布的特征； （3）形成了长株潭地区和湘南郴州地区2个高密度热点区，与湘南衡阳地区、湘中娄底地区2个次热点区； （4）星级农庄主要分布在距市州中心城市90km范围内。［结论］湖南省休闲农业星级农庄发展已经达到了集聚程度，但发展较不均衡，表明湖南省的休闲农业发展水平东部明显高于西部，根据该研究结果可将湖南省休闲农业划分为长株潭、湘南、湘中南、湘北、湘西5个休闲农业发展区域。     

安徽省县域乡村“三生”功能及耦合协调时空格局分析

[目的]通过探索乡村地域生产、生活、生态“三生”功能的交互关系和演化规律,为安徽省乡村空间功能优化、乡村发展活力提升、乡村生态环境改善建设提供参考。[方法]文章基于乡村“三生”功能测度指标体系和耦合协调度模型,测算1997—2017年安徽省县域乡村“三生”功能的发展水平和耦合协调度,并利用空间自相关分析揭示了乡村“三生”功能耦合协调的时空格局演化特征。[结果]（1）研究期间,安徽省乡村“三生”功能发展水平空间差异缩小,乡村发展水平趋向均衡,其中生活功能对乡村发展起到主导作用。（2）安徽省乡村“三生”功能耦合度整体较高,以高耦合和良性共振耦合为主,空间上呈现西高东低的特征。（3）安徽省乡村“三生”功能耦合协调水平主要表现为基本协调,呈北低南高和片状分布的特征,区域间差异逐渐缩小,且空间正相关关系增强,低值聚集区由皖中向皖北地区转移。[结论]目前安徽省乡村“三生”功能整体水平较低,耦合协调度有待提高,未来需进一步提高乡村“三生”功能以支撑乡村转型和振兴发展。     

西南地区水贫困测度和空间格局分析以重庆市为例

目的 通过对重庆市的水贫困进行测度和空间格局分析，为解决西南地区水贫困及水资源短缺问题找到了新的途径和思路。方法 文章采用主客观综合赋权法，从资源、设施、能力、使用和环境五方面确定22个指标构建重庆市水贫困测度指标体系，对重庆市水贫困进行测度，并利用GIS软件，依据自然断裂点法，对重庆市的水贫困进行空间格局分析，将其划分为高水贫困区、较高水贫困区、中水贫困区、较低水贫困区、低水贫困区5个差异区域，同时利用GeoDa软件对水贫困测度结果进行空间自相关分析。结果 （1）重庆市水贫困资源系统和使用系统指数等级偏高区域主要分布在渝东北、渝西和主城等经济相对较为发达、人口密集的区县，设施系统和能力系统指数等级偏高区域主要分布在渝东北和渝东南等社会经济水平较低的地区，环境系统指数等级偏高区域主要分布在经济水平相对较高且农业较为发达的地区。（2）重庆市水贫困分布呈两头小中间大的“椭球状”结构，高水贫困区、较低水贫困区、低水贫困区占比较少，较高水贫困区、中水贫困区占比较多。不同的水贫困区存在不同的问题和成因，需根据不同水贫困特征采取不同的解决措施，综合治理重庆市的水贫困问题。（3）重庆市水贫困空间集聚特征明显，低低集聚区主要分布在主城的渝中区、江北区、南岸区、巴南区和沙坪坝区，低值区分布较集中，高值区分布较零散，无高高集聚区。结论 重庆市水贫困空间分布差异明显，不同的水贫困区存在不同的问题和成因，可从以分别对各区域水贫困进行治理。     

城镇化与农业现代化协调度评价与分析——以重庆市五大功能区为例

根据系统论观点,协调是复合系统中各子系统在发展演化过程中的和谐共生关系。城镇化与农业现代化的协调度是指二者在发展过程中的和谐一致程度。文章采用空间描述方法构建系统协调状态测度模型,并以重庆2000~2012年数据为样本,对其功能分异明显的五大功能区城镇化与农业现代化发展的协调度进行实证分析。结果表明,重庆城镇化与农业现代化的协调度在2000~2006年较为理想,但从2007年起,城镇化发展指数的增幅明显高于农业现代化发展指数的增幅,协调度几乎处于濒临失调的状态。其中,五大功能区协调度的变化趋势特点各异。就2012年而言,都市功能核心区、都市功能拓展区、城市发展新区、渝东北生态涵养发展区和渝东南生态保护发展区协调等级分别为5级、5级、8级、2级、2级,分别处于濒临失调、濒临失调、中级协调、高度失调、高度失调状态。该文认为,要积极建构城镇化和农业现代化协调发展的制度基础,将城镇化作为实现农业现代化重要动力,依据区域资源禀赋和产业基础推进区域特色城镇化发展。     

生态脆弱区农业多功能空间格局特征及驱动因素研究——以南疆三地州为例

研究生态脆弱区的农业多功能对保护生态系统的完整性、实现农业可持续发展、推进农业现代化具有重要意义。文章以南疆三地州24个县域为评价单元，运用功能评价方法、探索性空间数据分析方法和地理探测器等方法，系统分析南疆三地州县域农业多功能空间格局特征和驱动因素。结果表明，南疆三地州县域农业多功能发展水平整体较低，县域之间差距较大，分功能协调发展有待加强;农业多功能空间分异特征明显，多功能空间分布呈现“单峰型”的核心边缘空间分布结构，分功能空间分布呈现不同的形态特征;农业多功能空间分异的驱动因素主要以自然资源禀赋和社会经济发展水平为主，其中自然资源条件和地区非农化发展水平是其主导因素。因此，坚持功能拓展、互联互通、科技赋能和因地制宜对于促进农业多功能深化发展的意义重大。     

江西省农业现代化发展水平综合评价及其推进路径与区域模式选择

[目的]研究江西省农业现代化发展水平的时间变化和空间差异,提出提升农业现代化发展水平的路径和区域模式。[方法]从5个方面选取了16项指标,构建江西省农业现代化评价指标体系,对1990—2015年江西全省及其11个地市的农业现代化发展状况进行评价。[结果]江西农业现代化发展指数从1990年的0.243上升到2015年的0.717,其中农业生产要素投入、农业经营模式、农业生产可持续性等3个指数呈现两阶段变化特征,农业产出水平和农业经济发展水平2个指数则一直上升;农业现代化发展的最低值区始终位于江西南北两端的赣州和九江地区,最高值区和较高值区始终位于沿东北—西南走向的环鄱阳湖区,而较低值区则位于赣东的抚州和鹰潭,赣东北的景德镇和赣西的萍乡;无论从省域层面还是从其11个地市的空间差异层面,农业现代化的关键障碍因素都已由1990—2000年的劳均农业机械总动力和农村人均用电量,逐渐转变为2010—2015年的户均耕地面积、地均化肥和农药施用量。[结论]针对江西省及其11地市的农业现代化关键障碍因素,可以通过3条路径和3种区域模式提升江西省及其各地市的农业现代化发展水平。     

Price transmission between products at different stages of manufacturing in forest industries

The theory of demand and supply implies a positive relationship, or “price transmission” between the prices of products at different stages of manufacturing. This relationship was investigated with quarterly prices of softwood stumpage in the US South, and national prices of forest products, from 1977 to 2002. All prices, net of inflation, were found to be nonstationary and there was no evidence of co-integration between prices. Vector autogressive models, augmented by Granger causality tests and multiplier analysis showed that there was a one-to-one permanent positive response of the southern sawtimber stumpage price to a permanent change in the national lumber price. There was also a one-third permanent positive response of the national paper price to a permanent change in the national pulp price. There was no relation between regional pulpwood prices and national pulp or paper prices. When price transmission was significant, the full adjustment took about 2 years.     

Application of an ecosystem function framework to perceptions of community woodlands

Owners, local residents, government, and conservation organisations can express divergent preferences in the development and management of local woodlands. The perceptions of these four groups were examined, in the context of three community woodlands in Eastern England, using an ecosystem function framework. In a pilot study, residents were able to allocate a relative importance to woodland ecosystem services which were then related to “regulation”, “habitat”, and “production” or “information” functions. However residents also placed importance on negative services or “dis-services” associated with the woodland ecosystem. Therefore a fifth category of “dis-services” was included in the main survey which included 84 local residents, three woodland owners, three government institutions, and six representatives from conservation groups. Each of the four groups placed greatest importance on services associated with habitat (16–39% of the total importance) and information (30–50%) functions suggesting, in this example, mutual interest in the use of woodlands as a habitat or recreational resource. By contrast a potential area of difference was the particularly high importance placed by one owner on dis-services such as fly tipping. In addition the woodland owners placed higher importance (10–20%), than local residents and conservation groups (7–9%), on the productive services of the wood. This suggests a need for communication when production-related operations affect recreation. The ecosystem function framework appears to be a useful approach for highlighting potential tensions and areas of mutual interest in the management of semi-natural ecosystems.     

In Vino ‘No’ Veritas: impacts of fraud on wine imports in China

China is one of the largest wine importing countries in the world and is poised for continued import growth in the future. Increased wine purchases throughout China have given rise to persistent fraud where fake wines are packaged and sold with counterfeit contents and labels. For exporting countries like France, counterfeit wines displace market share, damage foreign brand reputation, and cause distrust in consumers who are aware of counterfeiting problems throughout the country. We examine the impact of fraudulent wine events (as measured by negative media reports) on Chinese wine demand differentiated by supplying country. We employ the Rotterdam demand system and a switching regression procedure to estimate import demand and compare results across different media variable specifications. Results consistently show that negative reports disproportionately affect French wine regardless of how the media variable is specified. This is not surprising because most fraudulent events involve French wine counterfeits.     

An evaluation framework for earthquake-responsive land administration

In recent years earthquakes and their secondary hazards have claimed the largest number of lives of all large natural disasters. Some of the world’s most earthquake-prone zones are also areas of high population density. The impact is magnified by vulnerability factors including non-enforcement of building codes, knowledge gaps, urban poverty and poor governance capacity to manage and reduce earthquake risks. Poor security of land tenure and property rights increases the vulnerability of people and affects their ability to respond to natural disasters.Earthquake recovery and reconstruction provides very significant challenges for land agencies, with these challenges differing from one country to the next due to differences in the local context. Drawing on contrasting case studies in Haiti, Nepal and New Zealand this paper identifies the common post-earthquake land administration functions and challenges that may apply to many contexts. These lessons provide land agencies and other key stakeholders with a summary of the challenges an earthquake poses for land administration at different post-disaster stages. We also discuss the policy and regulatory, institutional, operational and preparedness lessons for land administration. From these lessons we propose a framework for evaluating the earthquake-responsiveness of a land administration system. This framework can be used by a land agency in an earthquake prone region, or where an earthquake has recently occurred, to assess what challenges to land administration might occur in the event of an earthquake, and the preparedness of their land administration system.     

Agrarian Poverty,Nutrition and Economic Class – A Study of Gujarat,India

This paper analyses poverty and calorific undernourishment in the Indian state of Gujarat, where high and market‐led industrial growth has resulted in rapid economic improvement. The study is carried out through a combination of secondary and survey‐based data. We conclude that the neoliberal agenda of uncontrolled, outward‐looking growth has not resulted in significant reduction of poverty or malnourishment in rural areas. Furthermore, while land ownership is officially used as a proxy for wealth distribution, class position appears a better predictor of poverty status in the rural areas than landownership per se. At the policy level, there is a need to revive the agrarian economy and create new non‐agricultural assets, and the primary focus in the state must shift to the distribution of created assets rather than a single‐minded focus on growth.     

Does sustainable agricultural growth require a system of innovation? Evidence from Ghana and Burkina Faso

This paper tests the ‘systems of innovation’ hypothesis for a selection of crops in Ghana and Burkina Faso that have shown significant growth in production over an approximately 20-year period. The question is whether such growth can only occur if supported by a system of innovation. Using two indicators (a common understanding on objectives and priorities, and a high level of interactivity), we find little evidence for the existence of anything that might be considered a high functioning system of innovation.     

Local impacts of industrial tree plantations: An empirical analysis in Indonesia across plantation types

The values ascribed to industrial tree plantations are often controversial. Hence knowledge of their perceived impacts is important for improving their integration in rural landscapes. In 2016 we conducted household surveys with 606 respondents living in villages adjacent to acacia, teak and pine plantations across three islands in Indonesia (Java, Borneo, Sumatra). Results show that perceptions toward pine and teak plantations tend to differ from those toward acacia pulpwood plantations in several ways. Pine and teak plantations are perceived to have a higher number and variety of benefits and services, a higher number of positive impacts, a better environmental record, and to present more opportunities to local people for use of plantation land and products for improving rural livelihoods. In addition, we find that villagers around acacia pulpwood plantations tend to seek economic development and infrastructure to open up remote areas, yet their expectations were often only partially met. Recommendations from our analysis include: the role of the State in plantations must be clarified and potentially reinforced; the role of institutions as intermediaries is fundamental; and contributions by communities to design of management plans should be accommodated.     

Upstream demand for water use by new tree plantations imposes externalities on downstream irrigated agriculture and wetlands*

Large‐scale tree plantations in high rainfall upstream areas can reduce fresh water inflows to river systems, thereby imposing external costs on downstream irrigation, stock and domestic water users and wetland interests. We take the novel approach of expressing all benefits and costs of establishing plantations in terms of $ per gigalitre (GL) of water removed annually from river flows, setting upstream demands on the same basis as downstream demands. For the Macquarie Valley, a New South Wales sub‐catchment of Australia’s Murray‐Darling Basin, we project changes in land and water use and changes in economic surpluses under two policy settings: without and with a policy requiring permanent water entitlements to be purchased from downstream parties, before plantation establishment. Without the policy, and given a high stumpage value for trees ($70/m³), upstream gains in economic surplus projected from expanding plantations are $639 million; balanced against $233 million in economic losses by downstream irrigators and stock and domestic water users for a net gain of $406 million, but 345 GL lower mean annual environmental flows. With the policy, smaller gains in upstream economic surplus from trees ($192 million), added to net downstream gains ($138 million) from sale of water, result in gains of $330 million with no reduction in environmental flows. Sustaining the 345 GL flow for a $76 million (406–330) reduction in gains to economic surplus may be seen to cost only $0.22 million/GL; but this is much lower than the market value of the first units of that water to agriculture and forestry.     

Underpayment of Small Producers of Coffee and Cocoa in Sierra Leone

Fieldwork shows that many Sierra Leonean producers do not receive the official producer price for their coffee and cocoa, due to the concentration of buying stations, credit relations, the small quantities offered for sale, and the lack of marketing knowledge of the numerous and unorganized farmers. To the traders underpayment may seem economically justifiable to a certain extent, but to the farmers it means poverty and debt. A new village marketing centre project aims at remedying this situation and has already led to higher prices. Although no longer allowed to take their "just" share from the producers, traders are still willing to deal with the new centres.     

Malaria incidence and agricultural efficiency in Uganda

The cost of accessing healthcare can be a major determinant of disease prevalence, which in turn has short‐ and long‐term welfare implications on poor households. In response, governments in developing countries often resort to subsidizing the cost of drugs, which, while perhaps easier to administer, may not always be the most effective way of addressing healthcare cost. In this regard, we analyze the impact of different types of household level health expenses on disease incidence and agricultural production efficiency. We use data from the 2006 Uganda National Household Survey, which covered approximately 7,400 households. The results suggest that a 10% increase in consultation, medicine, and hospitalization expenses would reduce malaria incidence respectively by 35.6%, 20.5%, and 21.3 %, which translates into a 1.1%, 0.6%, and 0.6 % decrease in agricultural inefficiency, respectively. The results indicate that helping poor households meet expenses for consultation through subsidies or eliminating consultation fees has a larger impact on malaria incidence and agricultural productivity among poor rural households than subsidizing the cost of medical drugs, the most common avenue chosen by developing country governments in the fight against the disease.