PwC:中小企业将成为资本市场生力军

普华永道最新调研数据显示,2010年中国IPO市场在全球范围内仍然处于领先地位,IPO融资总额再创历史新高,其中,中小企业十分活跃,成为上市主力,2010年中小企业板融资金额显著增长。未来几年出现大型企业IPO的可能性不大,因此,在2011年,高科技、高成长型的中小企业仍将成为资本市场的生力军     

Transitions in the German labor market: Structure and crisis

Since the so-called Hartz IV reforms around 2005 and during the global crisis of 2008/2009, the German labor market featured mainly declining unemployment rates. We develop a search and matching model with heterogeneous skills to explore the role of structural and cyclical policies for this performance. Calibrating unemployment benefits to approximate legislation before and after the reforms, we find a large reduction in unemployment and its duration, with the transition concluding after about three years. During the crisis, the extended use of short-time labor subsidies that prevent jobs from being destroyed is likely to have prevented strong increases in unemployment.     

Global 2000: Radar for the ship of state

The way the US Global 2000 report has (and, especially, has not) been reacted to and publicly debated illustrates many fundamental problems in developing workable and efficient radar for the ship of state. The text and footnotes draw attention to eg conflicting assumptions in different agencies, or the superficial but unchallenged criticisms of analyses by senior government officials. Many important principles are not even addressed.     

Female labor force participation: an international perspective.

This article gives an international perspective in regard to female participation in the labor force. In most countries women contribute less than men toward the value of recorded production. Social environment, statistical inconsistencies and methods of recording labor all contribute to this inequity. In Britain for instance, women caring for the household duties are in some studies considered to be part of the labor force and in other studies they are not. Further, internationally, women often find themselves in casual, temporary, or seasonal work that goes unrecorded. Defining what "labor force participation" constitutes is a key starting point to any survey. At what age is one considered employable? What constitutes a person "actively seeking" employment? Economists often try to explain labor force participation rate by age, sex, race and income groups and use this information to cite trends. The income-leisure model theorizes that choice of work or non-work by women is based primarily upon wages for work vs. wages for non-work. This theory sees non-labor income exerting a negative influence. Empirical evidence, however, suggests that women will choose work if wages are good regardless of any non-work benefits. Because most men are permanently in the labor force, estimates of labor reserves and projections of supply focus mostly on women. International generalizations are often misleading since trends vary widely among countries. During the last 20 years the global female participation rate has remained almost constant, but this is misleading. The percentage of working women in industrial countries increased 10%; developing countries showed a decrease of 7%. Female rates are often tied closely to shifts in the overall economy, (e.g., a transition from an agricultural to an industrial economy often sees a drop in female labor because subsistence jobs are lost). Of course the ability of women to bear children and the social expectations regarding child care often play a role. It is common in western industrialized countries to see drops in female participation during childbearing years. Countries with the lowest female participation rates are those with strong religious views about women in society, (e.g., Catholic and Muslim countries).     

On the short-run effects of labor market reforms

While several countries have recognized the need of introducing flexibility to their labor markets, there are different ways of doing so. Using a small open economy with tenure-dependent separation taxes, this paper compares introducing a full reform with two partial alternatives: (1) the introduction of temporary contracts, and (2) the elimination of separation costs from all new hires while freezing them on the workers that were hired prior to the reform. The first alternative can achieve a first-best long run outcome but leads to a sharp initial recession. The second alternative generates a similar long run outcome but avoids the recessionary adjustment.     

Housing and the labor market: Time to move and aggregate unemployment

Conventional macro-search models (Mortensen and Pissarides) with unemployment benefits and taxes have been able to account for the variation in unemployment rates across countries but do not account for the role geographic mobility or commuting time might play. We build a model in which both unemployment and mobility rates are endogenous. Our findings indicate that an increase in unemployment benefits and in taxes does not generate a strong decline in mobility but does increase unemployment as in the standard model. We find that with higher commuting costs the effect of housing frictions plays a large role and can generate a substantial decline in mobility.     

Monetary policy and labor market frictions: A tax interpretation

Replicating the flexible price allocation in models with nominal rigidities and labor market frictions that lead to an inefficient matching of unemployed workers with job vacancies, even if feasible, is generally not desirable. We characterize the tax instruments that implement the first best allocation and examine the trade-offs faced by monetary policy if these tax instruments are unavailable. Our tax interpretation helps explain why the welfare cost of inefficient labor market search can be large while the incentive to deviate from price stability is small. Gains from deviating from price stability are larger in economies with more volatile labor flows.     

Resocialing work? Anticipatory anthropology of the labor process

My research focuses on the possible future transformations of work in the increasingly dominant computer-technology-based work environment. I surmise that one characteristic that future work might take the form of is a renewed and expanded “sociality”, in which co-operation, self-management, and qualitative social interaction are fostered to counter the potentially isolating computer-mediated environment. Since the advantage of such new technologies is also their opposite capacity to expand communication, one must encourage more communication to make use of these capabilities. Although I am somewhat skeptical about the current climate of cyberenthusiasm, I recognize that, as ethnographers, we need to take these speculations seriously and, where possible, participate actively in the creation of the kinds of futures which we prefer. I have taken a participant–observation approach to the study of “proto-cyberspace” venues which are widely seen as suggestive of the social relations of a future new social formation. I begin this essay by analyzing the argument for the resocialing hypothesis, then consider the opposite arguments which see a degradation of social relations in the work environment. Data have been derived primarily from my studies of automated information technology-mediated labor processes in the USA, the UK, and the Nordic countries.     

Insurance and opportunities: A welfare analysis of labor market risk

Using a model with constant relative risk-aversion preferences, endogenous labor supply and partial insurance against idiosyncratic wage risk, this paper provides an analytical characterization of three welfare effects: (a) the welfare effect of a rise in wage dispersion, (b) the welfare gain from completing markets, and (c) the welfare effect from eliminating risk. The analysis reveals an important trade-off for these welfare calculations. On the one hand, higher wage uncertainty increases the cost associated with missing insurance markets. On the other hand, greater wage dispersion presents opportunities to raise aggregate productivity by concentrating market work among more productive workers. Welfare effects can be expressed in terms of the underlying parameters defining preferences and wage risk or, alternatively, in terms of changes in observable second moments of the joint distribution over individual wages, consumption and hours.     

Technology shocks and labor market dynamics: Some evidence and theory

A positive technology shock may lead to a rise or a fall in per capita hours, depending on how hours enter the empirical VAR model. We provide evidence that, independent of how hours enter the VAR, a positive technology shock leads to a weak response in nominal wage inflation, a modest decline in price inflation, and a modest rise in the real wage in the short-run and a permanent rise in the long-run. We then examine the ability of several competing theories to account for this VAR evidence. Our preferred model features sticky prices, sticky nominal wages, and habit formation. The same model also does well in accounting for the labor market evidence in the post-Volcker period.     

Optimal income taxation and social norms in the labor market

This paper concerns optimal income taxation in a two-type model extended to allow for social interaction and social norms in the labor market. One norm refers to “normal behavior” with respect to work hours (the hours of work norm), whereas another means that “one should earn one’s living by working” (the participation norm). The results show how the hours of work norm gives rise to a corrective motive for using income taxation. We also show how the interaction between the hours of work norm and the private incentive to participate in the labor market (which reflects the participation norm) gives rise to an employment motive for using the income tax.     

Unemployment insurance in a three-state model of the labor market

The paper extends the model of Krusell et al. (2010) to study the welfare effects of unemployment insurance. The model unemployment insurance program includes four realistic features: 1) a 50% replacement rate up to a benefit cap; 2) finite duration of eligibility during a jobless spell; 3) limited eligibility; and 4) and an imperfectly monitored job search requirement. The model is parameterized to fit the size of scope of unemployment insurance in the United States. Removing unemployment insurance from the model leads to only a 0.1% consumption equivalent increase in average welfare. Simplifying assumptions about the structure of unemployment insurance, such as allowing all job losers to receive benefits, lead to much larger welfare effects similar to the effects found in the past literature. Understanding the welfare effects of unemployment insurance requires careful modeling of the structure of the program.     

Global liquidity risk in the foreign exchange market

Using a broad data set of 20 US dollar exchange rates and order flow of institutional investors over 14 years, we construct a measure of global liquidity risk in the foreign exchange (FX) market. Our FX liquidity measure may be seen as the analog of the well-known Pastor–Stambaugh liquidity measure for the US stock market. We show that this measure has reasonable properties, and that there is a strong common component in liquidity across currencies. Finally, we provide evidence that liquidity risk is priced in the cross-section of currency returns, and estimate the liquidity risk premium in the FX market around 4.7 percent per annum.     

On the importance of the participation margin for labor market fluctuations

Conventional analyses of labor market fluctuations ascribe a minor role to labor force participation. We show, by contrast, that flows-based analyses imply that the participation margin accounts for around one-third of unemployment fluctuations. A novel stock-flow apparatus establishes these facts, delivering three further contributions. First, the role of the participation margin appears robust to adjustments for spurious transitions induced by reporting error. Second, conventional stocks-based analyses are subject to a stock-flow fallacy, neglecting offsetting forces of worker flows on the participation rate. Third, increases in labor force attachment among the unemployed during recessions are a leading explanation for the role of the participation margin.     

关于银行卡受理市场的规则工作

中国有句俗话:没有规矩,不成方圆.就是说,没有规则(制度)的约束,人类的行为就会陷入混乱.这样一个朴素而重要的思想,在生活中却经常被人们所忽视.同样,银行卡产业发展到今天,市场上出现了这样那样的秩序问题,银行卡受理规则在被历史地忽略后,今后必将被推上历史舞台.     

Sleeplessness,distraction and stock market performance: Evidence from the world cup

We study how sleeplessness and distraction impact global stock markets using a novel proxy, the FIFA World Cup games. Using this widely viewed sporting event, we exploit the time zone differences between countries to capture the sleeplessness from staying awake overnight and the distraction from watching matches during trading hours. We find the markets experience a − 26 basis-point daily return for a day of sleeplessness and a − 22 basis-point return due to distraction. These effects are robust to methodological changes.     

Global market integration: An alternative measure and its application

Global markets seem to be increasingly integrated but there is no well-accepted measure of integration. We show that the correlation across markets is a poor measure; perfectly integrated markets can exhibit weak correlation. We derive a new integration measure based on the explanatory power of a multi-factor model and use it empirically to investigate recent trends in global integration. For most countries, there has been a marked increase in measured integration over the past three decades, but this is not indicated by correlations among country indexes.     

The world cup in football and the US IPO market

We document that US IPOs that take place during a world cup in football (soccer), compared to IPOs before or after, exhibit 9% lower underpricing and 6% lower price adjustment. IPOs during world cups receive less attention from foreign investors and exhibit significantly higher long-run returns. Our results are robust to excluding the IPO bubble period of 1999 and 2000, including only listings during summer months, controlling for overall market sentiment and market conditions, and to using various matched samples of non-world cup IPOs. Firm characteristics of world cup IPOs are indistinguishable from those of non-world cup IPOs, suggesting that selection is not driving the results. Consistent with prior studies showing that world cups affect market sentiment, we show that this extends to US IPOs, where lower sentiment, driven by foreign investors, leads to reduced investor attention and lower valuations.