Labour market response to globalisation: Spain, 1880–1913

This paper analyses the impact of globalisation (trade and migration) on the Spanish labour market between 1880 and 1913 by examining the influence that globalisation factors had on agricultural and industrial wages. Our results show that the nineteenth century grain invasion had a negative impact on agricultural wages, whereas the fall in wheat prices did not benefit industry workers. We also found that migration pushed up real agricultural and industrial wages. As agriculture was the main sector in the economy, the final impact was a wage decrease. The negative impact of trade on agricultural and industrial labour markets partly explains the trade policy response of “integral protection”. However, other alternatives that would have been effective in raising living standards, such as migration policy, were not used.     

Work and Wages at a Melbourne Factory,the Guest Biscuit Works 1870–1921

The story of wages in nineteenth‐ and early twentieth‐century Australia has largely been told through official published statistics and the experiences of skilled artisans and construction labourers. Utilising wage book data from an early successful manufacturing plant – a biscuit factory – we reveal the earning histories of several neglected groups of Australian workers. We specifically investigate the effects of the 1890s depression, the introduction of a wages board, and shifting demographics on the wages of unskilled factory hands, women, juvenile workers, and commercial clerks. We demonstrate that typical Australian wage series studies have misinterpreted the impact of these phenomena.     

中国对外直接投资对母国行业间收入差距的影响

本文在理论和实证上探讨了中国对外直接投资(ODI)通过"生产要素需求创造"和"生产要素需求替代"的直接效应,以及通过"生产率效应"和"产业结构调整效应"的间接效应对母国行业间收入差距产生的影响。由于数据获得的局限性,目前国内的研究集中采用《中国工业企业数据库》分析工业企业ODI与工资的关系。本文利用Dealogic及FDI Markets数据库中2003-2017年12623家中国对外并购和绿地投资的企业数据,考虑行业异质性的影响差异,在34个全行业的层面上进行跨时期和分行业生产要素密集度的实证分析。结果表明:总体上,中国ODI对母国行业间收入差距的影响为先扩大后缩小,呈"倒U型"趋势,但当前阶段缩小的影响仍小于扩大的影响。中国ODI通过"生产率效应"间接扩大了国内行业间的工资差距,并且影响具有时滞性;通过"产业结构调整效应"间接扩大了国内行业间工资差距,但影响呈收敛趋势。行业异质性影响结果显示:劳动密集型行业ODI总体上呈扩大影响,而资本密集型行业ODI总体上呈先扩大后缩小的影响。34个细分行业中,有24个细分行业的ODI当前处于扩大国内行业间工资差距的阶段。但知识密集型制造业中的通用、专用设备制造业及通信设备行业,以及知识密集型服务业中的信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业具有明显的缩小作用。     

Indonesia's Industrial Transformation 1 Part I

It is now possible to obtain a fairly complete picture of Indonesian industril development, based on the 1986 Economic Census and subsequent Updates, the mcorporation of the huge oil and gas sector, and die earlier industrial data base. The picture is one of dramatic growth and transformation since the late 1960s when Indonesia was one of the least industrialised countries for its size. In this paper we examine the pattern and changing structure of industry, focusing on industry composition, regional industrialisation, ownership, scale and wages. Indonesia's industrial transformation is evident not only in rapid Output and employment growth, but also in the transition to more capital and skill-intensive industries, a narrowing in the earlier very large (almost ‘dualistic’) productivity differentials, strong productivity and wage growth, a broadening of the industrial base outside Java, and a probable reduction in concentration levels (at least by establishment).     

The Spread of Industry: Spatial Agglomeration in Economic Development

This paper describes the spread of industry from country to country as a region grows. All industrial sectors are initially agglomerated in one country, tied together by input–output links between firms. Growth expands industry more than other sectors, bidding up wages in the country in which industry is clustered. At some point firms start to move away, and when a critical mass is reached industry expands into another country, raising wages there. We establish the circumstances in which industry spills over, which sectors move out first, and which are more important in triggering a critical mass.J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 1996,10(4), pp. 440–464. Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics; and London School of Economics and Centre for Economic Policy Research.     

Do State Minimum Wages Affect the Incarceration Rate?

Because of historically unprecedented increases in the prison population since the late 1970s, the United States has the highest incarceration rate in the world. Using Becker's (1968) framework on crime, this study investigates the causal relationship between incarceration rates and state minimum wages. Our identification strategy consists of a state-level fixed effects model and Autor and Dorn's (2013) two-stage least-squares (2SLS) approach. Using the historical local industry structure, we predict the change in employment shares of manual task-intensive occupations and use those as an instrument for state minimum wages. The fixed effects and 2SLS estimates suggest that a one-dollar increase in state minimum wage leads to approximately 12–25 fewer incarcerations per 100,000 state residents. Estimates of the heterogeneous impacts by race and gender indicate that the aggregate impact of state minimum wages is entirely driven by men.     

Migrants and urban wage: Evidence from China's internal migration

Using China's 2005 1% population survey, this paper examines the wage impact on urban workers of rural to urban migration. We find that, on average, migrants increase the wages of urban workers, with the effect being magnified for more skilled urban workers. This suggests that migrants with skills similar to those of urban workers may complement them. We explore the possible channels of these effects. From the supply perspective, we find that migration inflows accelerate the occupational upgrading of urban workers, especially for low- and medium-skilled workers. From a demand perspective, as the share of migrants in the urban labor force increases, the number and output of industrial firms also increase, and firms become more reliant on low-skilled workers. The more migrants in a city, the greater the available employees for industrial firms, particularly for low-skilled employees. However, the effects on high-skilled firms are much smaller or insignificant. In addition, we find that migrants have little impact on firms' capital-labor and capital-output ratios. This suggests that firms can expand through capital adjustments to absorb inexpensive migrants, which alleviates the possible negative impact of migrants on the urban labor market.     

Regional wages in industry and labour market integration in Sweden, 1861–1913

Abstract

This study examines the extent to which wages of industrial workers converged during the period of Sweden's industrial breakthrough, thereby relating to the international discussion on market integration. About 350 local wage series for nine regions in Sweden for the period 1861–1913 are used, deflated by regional cost-of-living indices. The main result is that there was a general wage convergence during the period of study. Wage differentials decreased across occupations and regions, but also within occupational groups and regions (sigma-convergence). There was also a general tendency of initially lower wages to grow more quickly than initially higher wages (beta-convergence). The convergence pattern in this respect differed between sub-periods, which may be related to the pattern of industrial and infrastructural development in Sweden. The occurrence of wage convergence may be interpreted as evidence of an integration of the labour market, which corresponds to the integration of product and capital markets presented in other investigations.     

Local and Personal Networks in Employment and the Development of Labor Markets: Evidence from the Cut Flower Industry in Ethiopia

We examine the roles of local and personal networks in the employment process and the emergence and development of the labor market in Ethiopia’s growing cut flower industry. Using primary survey data of 320 workers randomly sampled from all 64 farms, we find that workers who were recruited informally using the social ties were paid less than the formally-recruited workers at hiring. However, these workers quickly increased their productivity, and the effect of social ties on wages disappeared over time. Further, we find that the development of labor market for this newly-emerged industry took place particularly within the industrial cluster.     

Spinning the industrial revolution

The prevailing explanation for why the industrial revolution occurred first in Britain during the last quarter of the eighteenth century is Allen's ‘high wage economy’ view, which claims that the high cost of labour relative to capital and fuel incentivized innovation and the adoption of new techniques. This article presents new empirical evidence on hand spinning before the industrial revolution and demonstrates that there was no such ‘high wage economy’ in spinning, which was a leading sector of industrialization. We quantify the working lives of frequently ignored female and child spinners who were crucial to the British textile industry with evidence of productivity and wages from the late sixteenth to the early nineteenth century. Spinning emerges as a widespread, low‐productivity, low‐wage employment, in which wages did not rise substantially in advance of the introduction of the jenny and water frame. The motivation for mechanization must be sought elsewhere.     

Can Market Potential Explain Regional Disparities in Developing Countries? Evidence from Turkey

Regional disparity is one of the important characteristics of the Turkish economy. This study examines the impact of market potential on the regional differences in Turkey by investigating wages in the manufacturing industry for 1987 and 2000. Evidence suggests that market potential is an important determinant of inequality in Turkey. In addition, public–private decomposition reshapes the dispersion of wages supportive of rising heterogeneity in the private manufacturing industry. This increases the explanatory power of market potential, which is observed to be high in western Turkey and diminishes toward eastern Turkey. Our findings highlight that during the postliberalization era of the 1980s, Turkey's regional inequality concern transformed into a structural problem which can be explained by provincial market potential. Moreover, our results underline that the modern geography framework, which has been tested for developed economies, is able to elucidate the regional differences in a developing country suffering from persistent imbalances.     

工业机器人应用对制造业就业的影响——基于中国地级市数据的实证研究

利用2013—2017年中国286个地级市的面板数据实证研究发现,工业机器人应用对中国制造业就业总量存在显著的负影响,工业机器人渗透度提升1单位将导致制造业就业总量下降3.35个百分点。针对影响制造业就业结构的实证研究发现,工业机器人应用对东部、西部地区有显著的负影响,对中部和东北地区的影响不显著,对制造业细分行业、低技能劳动者和男、女劳动者就业均存在普遍的负影响,对高技能劳动者就业存在正向影响,但不显著。深入研究后发现,工业机器人替代不是导致制造业就业下降的根本原因,而是对制造业就业岗位的补充与延伸。政府在制定针对智能制造的产业政策时,应根据地方制造业劳动供给与企业生产需求进行灵活安排。     

Wages,prices, and technology in early Catalan industrialization

Catalonia was the only Mediterranean region among the early followers of the British industrial revolution. The roots of this process can be traced back to the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries when the Catalan economy became integrated into international trade, and a successful printed calico industry concentrated in the city of Barcelona. Although the factory system was largely adopted by the cotton industry in the 1840s, the diffusion of the spinning jenny in Catalonia had occurred earlier, in the 1790s. In line with Allen, this article explores whether relative factor prices played a role in the widespread adoption of the spinning jenny in Catalonia. First, series of real wages in Barcelona are supplied for the period 1500–1808. Second, the prices of labour and capital are compared and the potential profitability of the adoption of the spinning jenny is analysed. Findings show that although Catalonia was not a high wage economy in the way that Britain was in the second half of the eighteenth century, evidence from the cotton spinning sector confirms the relevance of relative factor prices in the adoption of new technology. Within the booming cotton sector after the 1780s, high wages created strong incentives for the adoption of the labour‐saving spinning jenny.     

‘Australian sailors wanted’: Labour supply and Australian shipping,c. 1870–c. 1914

In the pre-1914 era Australia did not develop an ocean-going merchant navy. The problem is well recognised in previous studies that assumed that it was high Australian wages that made the operational cost of deep-sea vessels uncompetitive on a global scale. This article reconstructs historical shifts in the Australian market for a seagoing workforce and demonstrates there was low recruitment of Australian labour. Drawing on new sources and inspired by efficiency wage theory the article argues that it was this shortage of a domestic labour supply that constrained the development of a national deep-sea shipping industry.     

Labor market concentration and heterogeneous effects on wages: Evidence from Japan

This study provides empirical evidence of the impact of labor market concentration on wages. We find that (1) wages are suppressed in more concentrated labor markets, (2) labor rigidity is associated with wage responsiveness to labor market concentration, (3) the impact of labor market concentration on wages is smaller for firms with more competitive downstream product markets, and (4) greater job opportunities outside the manufacturing sector weaken the relationship between concentration and wages. In sum, our findings indicate that labor rigidity and the degree of competition in downstream product markets, as well as outside options, affect the relationship between market concentration and wages.     

人力资本特征与行业收入差距的相关性分析

本文采用2012年的行业收入及其相关因素的截面数据并对其进行统计分析,在控制行业特征的情况下研究人力资本特征对行业收入差距的影响。研究发现:①垄断依然是影响行业收入差距的重要因素;②受教育程度对行业工资回报有着很强的正向影响;③从业人员的平均年龄对工资收入差距的影响为负;④我国就业市场中的"性别歧视"现象仍然存在,在高收入行业中男性的比例要大于女性,而女性要进入高收入行业必须要有着更高的学历条件。     

The Impact of Economic Reform on Productivity Growth in Chinese Industry: A Case of Xiamen Special Economic Zone

China's industrial and trade reforms were expected to stimulate growth in output and welfare by increasing the capacity of industry to absorb surplus factors of production, and by utilizing labour, capital, energy and materials more efficiently. The impact of the special economic zone reform policies on productivity and growth is assessed by studies of China's overall industrial sector performance and case studies in Xiamen and Shanghai Beijing, which is not subject to special policy initiatives, is used as a control. Although there were data limitations, several conclusions may be drawn. An increase in total factor productivity was found to have occurred in Xiamen during the reform period, but the creation of the special economic zone does not appear to have had a significant impact on productivity. Productivity performance in Beijing's state-owned industry was considerably poorer than that of total Xiamen industry, including state, collective and firms jointly owned with foreign investors, and was also lower than the productivity performance of Xiamen's state sector. The productivity performance of Xiamen's joint ventures and collectively owned firms was, however, considerably superior to the state sectors in both cities. Due to data constraints, the analysis of productivity in Shanghai was for a shorter period. Most of Shanghai's state-owned industry did better than the state-owned sector in Beijing but did not perform as well as the non-State sector in Xiamen over this period. Factor productivity in Shanghai industry was stagnant, Beijing's industrial productivity generally declined, but Xiamen's productivity improved considerably over the decade. One of the major strengths of this study is its access to new and more accurate disaggregated price indices to deflate capital investments on an industry by industry basis. Hence, the availability of the new capital stock deflator series should improve the total factor productivity estimates considerably.     

上海60年工业化道路与产业结构调整研究

上海60年经济发展的进程表明,工业化的演进对产业结构的调整产生了深远的影响。文章以霍夫曼比例来测度上海工业化水平,以二三产业产值比来测度产业结构水平。通过对上海1952--2008年间将近60年的历史数据的回归分析来说明上海工业化和产业结构的关系,在此基础上,总结上海工业化演进对产业结构调整的影响、取得的成果及存在的问题,并提出上海走新型工业化道路和产业结构再调整的对策思考。     

MINIMUM WAGE POLICY AND ITS IMPACT ON EMPLOYMENT IN THE URBAN FORMAL SECTOR

Since the late 1980s, minimum wages have become an important plank of the Indonesian government's labour policy. Their levels have increased faster in real terms than those of average wages and per capita gross domestic product and, as a result, minimum wages have become binding for the majority of formal sector workers. This study finds that the imposition of minimum wages has a negative and statistically significant impact on employment in the urban formal sector. The disemployment impact is greatest for female, young and less educated workers, while the employment prospects of white-collar workers are enhanced by increases in minimum wages. Some workers who lose jobs in the formal sector and have to relocate to the informal sector face lower earnings and poorer working conditions.     

产业集聚促进产业转型升级了吗？——基于中国制造业的实证分析

基于2011-2018年中国的省际面板数据,首先利用区位熵测度了中国制造业31个细分行业的产业集聚水平,然后从产业高端化、产业智能化和产业绿色化三个维度构建了制造业转型升级综合评价指标体系,运用熵权法确定各项指标权重后计算产业转型升级指数。在此基础上,构建计量模型实证检验了中国制造业产业集聚对产业转型升级的影响。结果表明：产业集聚显著促进了制造业转型升级,政府支出、基础设施建设、人力资本、外商直接投资同样对制造业转型升级产生了显著的正向影响,而劳动力成本则对制造业转型升级产生了负向影响。