Government fiscal projection and debt sustainability

This paper reconsiders Japan’s fiscal sustainability. We investigate whether a simulation conducted under the political constraint imposed by a fiscal reaction function supports the official projection. First, we obtain Japan’s fiscal reaction function by estimating the response of the primary surpluses to the past debt for a panel data set of 23 OECD countries. Next, we investigate the political feasibility of the official projection using our estimated reaction function. When the Cabinet Office criterion is used for the debt-to-GDP ratio, the government can attain the policy target of nonnegative fiscal surpluses and realize fiscal sustainability. Notably, the negative growth-adjusted bond yield and the high growth rate contribute to this finding.     

Structural adjustment in Africa: Insights from the experiences of Ghana and Senegal

Structural adjustment in Ghana and Senegal has helped create an improved framework for economic growth. But this is a fragile trend, one that could be disrupted by bad weather, adverse terms of trade, and the vagaries of international assistance. The current version of adjustment, however, has produced little enduring poverty alleviation. A weak performance on equity issues, together with rising political expectations, has generated threats to the sustainability of structural adjustment and overall political stability. Alternatively, adjustment policies can be modified to fully incorporate equity and sustainability objectives. In this respect, it is critical for the poor to obtain more effective representation in decision-making on adjustment through indigenous nongovernment organizations.     

Regional Integration and Energy Sustainability in Africa: Exploring the Challenges and Prospects for ECOWAS

This study explores the extent to which regional integration can be a viable tool in driving energy sustainability in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) sub‐region of Africa and vice versa. It examines the existing opportunities and the attendant challenges for improved firm productivity in the region through the appraisal of the ECOWAS West African Power Pool. Using three measures of energy sustainability, namely energy security, energy equity and environmental sustainability; the study presents the performance of the ECOWAS sub‐region in ensuring regional integration for energy sustainability. The findings from the study reveal, inter alia, that there are prospects and benefits for energy integration for sustainable development in the region. However, even though some progress had been made, there are many challenges. Also, where progress had been made, it is not uniform across the region, though factors such as rising population and political instability could be responsible. It is recommended that the political economy surrounding regional energy integration should be given a priority among member states to ensure that there is positive political will for speedy achievement of set goals. Also, investment in human capital to manage the different projects and maintain the facilities cannot be overemphasized.     

The Viability of Fixed Exchange Rate Commitments: Does Politics Matter? A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation

This article studies the connection between political instability and the sustainability of an exchange rate regime. A model based on the credibility of monetary policy shows that political unrest should be correlated with the adoption of flexible exchange rates. That intuition is tested using various measures of political instability on a panel of 125 countries between 1980 and 1994.     

Political institutions,entrenchments, and the sustainability of economic development – A lesson from rural finance

This paper provides insights on the sustainability of economic development from a historical and political economy perspective. We demonstrate that China's rural financial policy in the 1980s was quite liberal in employing market mechanisms, supporting entrepreneurship, and encouraging competition. These policies were abandoned in the early 1990s and replaced by ubiquitous government interferences that shifted resource and policy priorities to benefit political incumbents. A large panel of survey data confirms that rural household access to finance decreased dramatically in the 1990s and that the statistical significance of economic entrepreneurial factors in determining credit allocation also fell. Further empirical analyses show that market economic conditions are not sufficient to explain these changes and the evidence is consistent with a political entrenchment motive during the political regime after the turmoil in the year 1989. Given the connection between entrenchment and underdevelopment, our findings raise the concern that China's political institutions' insufficient limits on the government could be a challenge for China to sustain its economic success.     

弱势群体政治权利分析

弱势群体政治权利保护是实现和维护其自身利益,逐步摆脱弱势的重要途径。当前弱势群体政治权利保护未能引起应有重视,面临政治权利的缺失和政治地位的边缘化倾向。维护弱势群体政治权利的对策是:完善弱势群体政治权利保障的法律体系,加强弱势群体政治权利保障的制度化建设,建立政府在弱势群体权利保障上的政策支持系统。     

Governing the Palm-Oil Sector through Finance: The Changing Roles of the Indonesian State

By analysing the different roles of the Indonesian state in arranging finance schemes for palm-oil development since 1945, this article aims to answer two questions: What are these roles? And to what extent have they prioritised or balanced economic growth, social equity, and environmental protection? We conclude that the state has never been absent from the palm-oil industry but has had different and changing financing roles that are historically contingent and shaped by the evolving economic and political landscape. Furthermore, these roles reflect Indonesia’s priorities of achieving economic growth through palm-oil development, furthering social equity, and, recently, promoting environmental sustainability.     

NGO Performance – What Breeds Success? New Evidence from South Asia

What is the best way for nongovernment organisations (NGOs) to make a lasting impact on poverty? This paper summarizes the findings of recent research into the impact, sustainability and cost-effectiveness of two NGOs in India and two projects implemented by Save the Children Fund-UK in Bangladesh. The factors determining performance are explored through the interaction of organizational decisions with the external context. Although these interactions are complex and dynamic, some clear conclusions emerge. Making a difference to livelihoods and capacities among poor people depends on NGO successes in fostering autonomous grassroots institutions and linking them with markets and political structures at higher levels. These conclusions question the current predilection among donor agencies to fund large-scale NGO service delivery.     

The Demand for Healthcare Regulation: The Effect of Political Spending on Occupational Licensing Laws

Using data on political spending in state elections, this study considers the role of political contributions by healthcare professional interest groups in states' decisions to enact occupational licensing laws. These laws govern how different professions may operate in healthcare markets, and while they ostensibly exist to protect consumers, licensing laws can also insulate professionals from competition in healthcare markets. Higher political spending by physician interest groups increases the probability that a state maintains licensing laws restricting the practices of nurse practitioners (NPs) and physician assistants (PAs). Conversely, increased spending by hospital interest groups increases the probability that a state allows NPs and PAs to practice with more autonomy. Nurse groups, which include groups affiliated with NPs, have a smaller effect on licensing laws. And nonphysician groups, which include groups affiliated with PAs, have almost no effect on licensing laws. These results are consistent with the investment theory of political spending.     

The military in politics: Who benefits and how

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the complexity of evaluating the political role of Third-World militaries and to underline the necessity of including many different kinds of information into analyses of that role.Four broad societal groups are identified which might be expected to benefit the most by some degree of military involvement in the economic and political life of a country: domestic civilian groups, the military as an institution, individuals within the military, and foreign groups. Some of the major reasons why each of these groups may favour a political and economic role for the military are outlined and examples are provided throughout of how these elements have operated in practice. The way in which the interests of the four broad groups may coincide is also discussed.     

Foreign debt,global liquidity,and fiscal sustainability

We empirically investigate fiscal sustainability by comparing countries in the different economic groups with a dataset covering 180 countries during the period from 1980 to 2015. As the OECD countries have higher international debt ratio than other countries, they have higher probability to be exposed to global risk factors. Non-OECD countries turn out to be more fiscally solvent than OECD countries due to their limited access to international financial market. However, we also find that better access to international liquidity increases fiscal sustainability within the sample of OECD countries, while it does not improve the fiscal solvency in case of non-OECD countries.     

The Political Economy of Trade Liberalization and Environmental Policy

A pressure group model where environmental and industry lobby groups offer political support in return for favorable pollution tax policies is used to explain and predict the equilibrium pollution tax in sectors protected by tariffs. The political economy effects of trade liberalization are investigated. The pollution tax is shown to decrease if the lobbying effort by the environmental lobby decreases more rapidly than by the industry lobby ceteris paribus. The level of political conflict falls with trade liberalization. Pollution may increase because of a reduction of the pollution tax, and tax revenues may fall simultaneously as pollution increases.     

现代集约可持续农业的构想——构建我国农业可持续发展模式

党的十六大以来提出的一系列关于和谐农村、新农村建设的措施实际上都是为了解决三农问题，实施农业可持续发展战略，发展可持续农业。农业可持续包括农业生态可持续、农业经济可持续和农业社会可持续。本文从农业生态可持续——生态农业、农业经济可持续——规模效益农业和农业社会可持续——人本农业角度将这三个子系统组合成一个系统整体——现代集约可持续农业，从理论上构建我国农业可持续发展模式。提出实现现代集约可持续农业的路径。     

Narratives from a wetland: Sustainable management in Lukanga,Zambia

Wetlands are a key livelihood resource in southern Africa. Historically they have been managed using local knowledge systems, but these systems have in many instances been undermined by colonial and postcolonial legal requirements. The IUCN's Ramsar initiative, supported by organisations such as BirdLife International and the WWF, seeks to protect wetland resources. This qualitative study examined the political ecology of the Kapukupuku and Waya areas of the Lukanga wetlands in Zambia, designated a Ramsar site. This designation has given rise to competing ‘narratives’ by politicians and local community leaders over how Lukanga should be managed and used, and the resulting conflict is threatening its sustainability. The paper warns that the various parties' arguments are value-laden and that power asymmetry threatens to exclude poor local communities. Policy must take power interests into account to ensure that developments in the name of the poor really do benefit the poor.     

Devolution, Sustainability and Local Economic Development: Impacts on Local Autonomy, Policy-making and Economic Development Outcomes

In this paper, we examine how devolution has affected local sustainable development. We focus on attempting to gauge how devolution will affect the promotion of sustainable development in the English regions through an analysis of the changes to date in Scotland, Wales and London. This evaluation is made more difficult because of the range of changes which devolution involves - political, institutional, organizational and cultural, and it is hard to ascribe particular outcomes to particular changes. The focus of the paper is examining how local sustainability regimes have been affected by devolution in the three case study regions. We then conclude that devolution can only add value to existing arrangements if it creates an additional level of legitimacy which supports local coalitions deepening their commitment to the principles of local sustainable development.     

知识—认知共同体与东亚地区公共卫生治理——中日合作的必要与前景

突如其来的新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情给东亚地区带来很大挑战,东亚国家成为中国以外确诊病例较多的国家,这也在一定程度上反映了近年来东亚地区经济社会一体化空前深化的客观事实。东亚地区一体化源于危机,也是在“转危为机”中得到发展,东亚金融治理机制的发展就是很好的例证。与以强制执行力为基础的国家治理不同,国际治理需要在地区国家间构建以相关科学知识共识为基础的地区性知识权威以及以政治和社会舆论认知共识为基础的地区性认知权威提供保障。作者将从知识和认知的新视角出发,探讨东亚公共卫生治理机制的理论与政策问题。包括东亚地区公共卫生治理在内的功能性国际治理能够有效并且有持续性,需要两个层面的与知识相关的共同体:一个是传统国际关系理论意义上以专业科学知识为基础的专家网络知识共同体,另一个是超越上述专业知识、具有跨国合作解决功能性难题共识的更加一般性的政治和社会认知共同体。中国与日本作为世界上第二和第三大经济体,在公共卫生领域取得了突破性的成绩。作为非西方世界两个正在崛起和已经崛起的大国,中日具有知识上的巨大互补性。中日合作可以为国际公共卫生领域新的规范建构提出更多“东亚智慧”,起到政治引领作用,为东亚地区培育和强化命运共同体意识以及健全完善全球治理体系做出重大贡献。     

政治资本、代际传递、进入与晋升：以公共部门为例

文章利用中共宁夏区委党校培训官员的调研样本实证分析了公共部门内部父母政治资本的代际传递状况,在排除了样本自选择偏误之后,回归结果表明：父母政治资本对进入公平和晋升公平的影响并非全局性的,而是针对特定群体。公务员考试制度的全面推广促进了进入公平,使得进入不公平只存在于那些并非通过公开考试进入公共部门的官员群体之中;晋升不公平则表现出“顶端优势效应”,对于低级别官员并不显著,随着级别的提高,父母政治资本对官员提拔速度的正面效应才相对显著。以上发现表明,利用制度建设削弱政治资本的代际传递仍然具有现实迫切性,只有通过选人必考、任人唯贤才能维护公共部门内部个体发展的机会公平和规则公平。     

A political economy analysis of the Korean economic crisis

This paper analyzes the causes of the Korean economic crisis from a political-economic perspective. The author points out that the economic causes which had been mentioned often such as overvalued won exchange rate and moral hazard of financial sector and corporate sector, have political origins. If the Korean economic crisis was caused by political economic factors, structural reform of the economy alone is not sufficient for economic recovery. Therefore, this paper argues, the behaviors of politicians, bureaucrats, and interest groups had been influential for resource allocation in the Korean economy. It concludes that the self-interest seeking activities of various interest groups should be properly controlled.     

Bohn's Test of Fiscal Sustainability of the American State Governments

The dramatic fall in state revenues during the Great Recession and the resultant large budget deficits accentuated concerns about state fiscal sustainability. I employ a model‐based approach proposed by 1998 to test for sustainability. In this approach, a positive and significant reaction of the ratio of primary surplus ratio (s) to lagged debt constitutes a sufficient condition for sustainability. Based on a panel of 48 contiguous states (1961–2008) and several model specifications, I find robust evidence in favor of sustainability. Further analysis suggests that the adjustment of the components of s to debt is asymmetric with the revenue side bearing a heavier burden than the spending side. The response of s is also found to be asymmetric with respect to the level of debt. Finally, the magnitude of the response is larger in states with a higher degree of fiscal stringency in general and “own‐revenue” and “no‐deficit‐carryover” provisions in particular.     

Sustainability of the fiscal imbalance and public debt under fiscal policy asymmetries in Sri Lanka

This paper investigates the sustainability of Sri Lanka’s fiscal imbalance and public debt. To test for sustainability of the fiscal imbalance, the study applies a symmetric ARDL (autoregressive distributive lag) technique to estimate a government intertemporal budget constraint. And to test for sustainability of public debt, it applies an asymmetric ARDL technique to estimate a fiscal reaction function, which allows for differential responses in the primary budget balance depending on whether shocks to regressors are positive or negative. Annual data for the period 1961–2018 are used in the estimations. The results indicate that Sri Lanka’s fiscal management is inconsistent with strong form sustainability, which requires that expenditures not grow faster than revenues. However, estimation of the fiscal reaction function finds robust evidence for fiscal policy asymmetries. Evidence emerges that Sri Lanka’s fiscal policy stance is procyclical with strong stabilization tendencies in economic expansions that are not sustained in contractions. Against upsurges in the debt-to-GDP ratio, authorities are found to pursue fiscal consolidation, thus suggesting weak form sustainability.