Asset pricing in China's domestic stock markets: Is there a logic?

China's stock markets have grown rapidly since their inception and have become an increasingly important emerging market for international investors. However, there are few systematic studies on how asset prices are formed in Chinese domestic equity markets; popular financial media even depict the market as irrational. In this paper, we study the asset pricing mechanism in the nascent Chinese stock markets, with the objective of identifying variables that capture the cross-sectional variation in average stock returns. We focus on the effects of various market imperfections in China. We find that while the market risk (beta) is not priced, there is a significantly negative relationship between firm-specific risk and expected returns. Chinese investors are willing to pay a significant premium for more liquid stocks or for dividend-paying stocks. Furthermore, investors value local A-shares more if there are offshore counterparts (e.g., B- and H-shares) for foreigners, implying that a Chinese firm with a foreign shareholder base has a lower cost of capital, ceteris paribus. Lastly, as with U.S. and other mature markets, firm size and the book-to-market ratio are systematically related to stock returns. Given market imperfections, stocks are priced rather rationally in China, despite the widespread perception to the contrary.     

UNLISTED TRADING PRIVILEGES,LIQUIDITY, AND STOCK RETURNS

In this study we examine the effect of dual trading through unlisted trading privileges (UTPs) on liquidity and stock returns. Stocks with UTPs trade in a different market structure than stocks listed and traded only on the AMEX and NYSE. Differences in market structure may affect stock returns through liquidity services provided by the competing markets. The sample comprises 852 AMEX and NYSE firms that began unlisted trading on the Philadelphia, Pacific, Midwest, or Cincinnati exchanges between 1984 and 1988. The results show significantly positive abnormal returns around the SEC's announcement of a regional exchange's filing for UTPs. The results also suggest that increased competition improves trading liquidity. Only stocks with low liquidity before UTPs announcements experience significantly improved liquidity and positive stock returns.     

The decision to list abroad: The case of ADRs and foreign IPOs by Chinese companies

This paper examines the decision to list abroad by Chinese companies in the form of ADRs and foreign IPOs from 1993 to 2005. Our sample consists of 33 ADRs, 218 foreign IPOs, and a sample of 1418 domestic listings. We find evidence to support that issuers are motivated to cross-list due to the legal and accounting standards of the foreign markets, more stringent listing requirements and closer regulatory monitoring, significant demands for external capital due to rapid growth, an expanded shareholder base, and foreign expertise. The motives and firm factors differ by the type of issue (ADR versus foreign IPO) and by the market in which the foreign exchange is located (Hong Kong versus Singapore). Subsequent to the listing events, issuers experience a significant drop in profitability, tangible assets ratio, and asset turnover. There is no significant change in capital expenditure. Stock returns after the listing events are generally negative for ADR and foreign IPO stocks. More significantly, these stocks under-perform the market in the post-event window ranging from 3 days to 3 years.     

The valuation effects of overseas listings: The case of the Tokyo Stock Exchange

Shareholders of U.S. firms that listed stock on the Tokyo Stock Exchange from 1973 to 1989 are shown to have experienced no significant wealth gains. The pattern of the market's reaction to a Tokyo listing tracks closely the reactions to a domestic listing, where gains prior to listing are later erased. The findings indicate no advantages to a listing for a firm with a prior business presence in Japan, and they do not support the hypothesis of diminishing returns to foreign listings. The findings are consistent with the integration of international capital markets.     

Internet search intensity,liquidity and returns in emerging markets

Using a sample of listed companies in the Vietnam stock market from 2013 to 2018, this paper investigates the linkage between Internet search intenseness and stock returns and trading volume. The empirical results confirm the “price pressure hypothesis” that search intensity is positively associated with subsequent stock returns and trading volume. It also finds that the positive effects on stock returns are not temporary but remain for the long term although some reversals occur. The results show that the effects of search intensity on stock returns are higher for large stocks than for small stocks. The findings also reveal that stocks that attract more attention from the public are exposed to higher market risk. These findings have not been documented in the literature so they enrich the information on the relationship between Internet search intenseness and stock market returns, especially for emerging markets where Internet user numbers are sharply increasing.     

Valuation implications of pharmaceutical companies' R&D regulatory approval notifications

This paper examines shareholder wealth effects surrounding applications to, and approvals by, the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for firms listed on the New York (NYSE) and London (LSE) stock exchanges. Applications to the FDA for drug approvals significantly increase shareholder wealth for NYSE firms only. The increase is driven by applications for enhancements to existing drugs, with the market anticipating the application, thus suggesting information leakage. FDA approvals also significantly increase shareholder wealth in both markets. However, there is no evidence of information leakage and the significant post-event abnormal returns support the attention-grabbing hypothesis. Enhanced drug approvals are value-relevant for both markets, which highlights the contribution of real-options to firm value.     

The Impact of Company Pre-Listing Attributes on the Market Reaction to NYSE Listings

This study examines the market behavior of common stocks transferring from the NASDAQ stock market to the New York Stock Exchange from 1982 to 1989. Using event study methodology, the study tests the joint liquidity-signaling hypothesis that a stock's pre-listing liquidity and earnings per share (EPS) growth (a proxy for signaling) affect the market behavior around NYSE listings. The results show that the market responds more favorably to stocks with low liquidity and high signaling than to stocks with high liquidity and low signaling before listing. Stocks in the former group do not have an anomalous pattern of negative post-listing abnormal returns.     

Average correlation and stock market returns

If the Roll critique is important, changes in the variance of the stock market may be only weakly related to changes in aggregate risk and subsequent stock market excess returns. However, since individual stock returns share a common sensitivity to true market return shocks, higher aggregate risk can be revealed by higher correlation between stocks. In addition, a change in stock market variance that leaves aggregate risk unchanged can have a zero or even negative effect on the stock market risk premium. We show that the average correlation between daily stock returns predicts subsequent quarterly stock market excess returns. We also show that changes in stock market risk holding average correlation constant can be interpreted as changes in the average variance of individual stocks. Such changes have a negative relation with future stock market excess returns.     

Stock Returns in Thinly Traded Markets

We examine the share price behavior of thinly traded NASDAQ National Market System stocks during periods when financial markets are open but the individual stocks do not trade. The absence of trade allows us to isolate the effect of nontrading from that of market closure. We find that nontrading stocks have negative mean returns and lower variances regardless of whether markets are open or closed. Two-day returns that include one nontrading day have a mean daily return of -0.226% compared to +0.164% for two-day returns over consecutive trading days. Two-day returns that include one nontrading day have only 3.8% higher variance than one-day returns. We conclude that the relation between transaction arrival, mean returns, and volatility depends on whether a stock is trading and not simply on whether the market is open.     

Does Trading Volume Contain Information to Predict Stock Returns? Evidence from China's Stock Markets

This paper examines empirical contemporaneous and causal relationships between trading volume, stock returns and return volatility in China's four stock exchanges and across these markets. We find that trading volume does not Granger-cause stock market returns on each of the markets. As for the cross-market causal relationship in China's stock markets, there is evidence of a feedback relationship in returns between Shanghai A and Shenzhen B stocks, and between Shanghai B and Shenzhen B stocks. Shanghai B return helps predict the return of Shenzhen A stocks. Shanghai A volume Granger-causes return of Shenzhen B. Shenzhen B volume helps predict the return of Shanghai B stocks. This paper also investigates the causal relationship among these three variables between China's stock markets and the US stock market and between China and Hong Kong. We find that US return helps predict returns of Shanghai A and Shanghai B stocks. US and Hong Kong volumes do not Granger-cause either return or volatility in China's stock markets. In short, information contained in returns, volatility, and volume from financial markets in the US and Hong Kong has very weak predictive power for Chinese financial market variables.     

On the Out-of-Sample Importance of Skewness and Asymmetric Dependence for Asset Allocation

Recent studies in the empirical finance literature have reportedevidence of two types of asymmetries in the joint distributionof stock returns. The first is skewness in the distributionof individual stock returns. The second is an asymmetry in thedependence between stocks: stock returns appear to be more highlycorrelated during market downturns than during market upturns.In this article we examine the economic and statistical significanceof these asymmetries for asset allocation decisions in an out-of-samplesetting. We consider the problem of a constant relative riskaversion (CRRA) investor allocating wealth between the risk-freeasset, a small-cap portfolio, and a large-cap portfolio. Weuse models that can capture time-varying moments up to the fourthorder, and we use copula theory to construct models of the time-varyingdependence structure that allow for different dependence duringbear markets than bull markets. The importance of these twoasymmetries for asset allocation is assessed by comparing theperformance of a portfolio based on a normal distribution modelwith a portfolio based on a more flexible distribution model.For investors with no short-sales constraints, we find thatknowledge of higher moments and asymmetric dependence leadsto gains that are economically significant and statisticallysignificant in some cases. For short sales-constrained investorsthe gains are limited.     

Transmission of shocks from cross-listed markets to the return and volatility of domestic stocks

This paper examines the transmission of information from German and the U.S. markets to domestic markets using daily price and volume data of 264 stocks from 26 countries that are traded in their home country and cross-listed outside their home market as depository receipts (DRs); in the German market as Global Depository Receipts (GDRs) and in the U.S. as American Depository Receipts (ADRs). We identify days with significant news arrivals in a market through minimum thresholds for both significant absolute price change and trading volume. DR returns and volatilities are affected by the shocks in the markets where they are cross-listed controlling for domestic shocks. Contemporaneous and/or lagged shocks to the cross-listed markets are transmitted to domestic stock returns and volatilities. South American DRs are affected mostly by U.S. shocks, while Eastern European DRs show greater reaction to the German shocks.     

Stock returns and economic forces—An empirical investigation of Chinese markets

This study finds evidence that a better macroeconomic climate and an improvement in liquidity help to explain Chinese stock returns. There is no evidence to support the hypothesis that growth in dividend yields can predict stock returns. The sectoral stock returns in China's markets are correlated with stock returns in the US markets as evidenced by: (i) a positive correlation with US stock returns; (ii) a significant negative error correcting term; (iii) a negative response of Chinese stocks to financial stress in the US market; and (iv) a positive correlation with a depreciation in the China/US exchange rate.     

Predicting bear and bull stock markets with dynamic binary time series models

Despite the voluminous empirical research on the potential predictability of stock returns, much less attention has been paid to the predictability of bear and bull stock markets. In this study, the aim is to predict U.S. bear and bull stock markets with dynamic binary time series models. Based on the analysis of the monthly U.S. data set, bear and bull markets are predictable in and out of sample. In particular, substantial additional predictive power can be obtained by allowing for a dynamic structure in the binary response model. Probability forecasts of the state of the stock market can also be utilized to obtain optimal asset allocation decisions between stocks and bonds. It turns out that the dynamic probit models yield much higher portfolio returns than the buy-and-hold trading strategy in a small-scale market timing experiment.     

The Wealth Effects of Private Stock Placements under Regulation D

This paper examines the wealth effects associated with unregistered private common stock placements under the Regulation D exemption by a sample of exchange listed and over the counter firms. Unlike the negative abnormal returns associated with public equity offerings, private placements of common stocks under Regulation D are initially associated with significantly positive abnormal returns. However, these firms experience significant negative price effects in the two years following the private placements.     

INTERNATIONAL TRANSFER OF PRICING INFORMATION BETWEEN DUALLY LISTED STOCKS

International multiple listing offers a unique opportunity to study the efficiency of information transmission across national markets. The knowledge gained from observing a stock of the same company priced in multiple markets differs from what may be gained from observing relations across markets of aggregate price indices. We investigate five companies based in Israel whose stocks are listed on both the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange and NASDAQ. Our empirical tests of causality in price changes use the side-by-side Box-Jenkins ARIMA models and the Sims VAR model. Overall, the results show that price causality in dually listed stocks is unidirectional from the domestic market to the foreign market.     

The Market Reaction to Discontinuing Regular Stock Dividends

This paper investigates the behavior of returns to share-holders of NYSE and AMEX firms that publicly announce the discontinuance of regular stock dividends. Using event-type methodology, the results show that the average abnormal return for NYSE and AMEX firms is negative but not statistically significant on the event date. Partitioning the sample by stock-related characteristics shows that for small firms with low stock prices and low institutional ownership, management's decision to drop regular stock dividends conveys a significantly negative signal, which, in turn, causes stock prices to decline. Firms that drop a stock payment and simultaneously initiate or increase cash dividends experience a significant increase in shareholder wealth. However, firms that drop the stock dividend policy and do not begin a cash dividend policy experience a sharp decline in shareholder wealth.     

Takeovers,market monitoring,and international corporate governance

We theoretically and empirically examine the role of international takeover markets in curtailing dominant shareholder moral hazard for firms with higher value‐added from acquisitions. In equilibrium, such firms strategically list shares in the markets of their targets and voluntarily dilute dominant shareholder control through capital‐raising events to lower their expected acquisition costs. Empirical tests, using a sample of foreign firms cross‐listing on U.S. stock exchanges during 1990–2003, support the framework. We find a strong influence of post‐listing dilution of dominant shareholder control through capital‐raising events on the likelihood of acquisitions and their cost to the acquirers, in both U.S. and non‐U.S. markets.     

What Drives Shareholder Reaction and Wealth Effect in Block Trades? Evidence from the Warsaw Stock Exchange

The main objective of this article is to present the determinants of shareholder reaction to block trades and their wealth effect on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The positive abnormal returns obtained for the entire sample indicate that block trades create shareholder value. Shareholders reacted positively to block trades without a control transfer in the Polish market, and their reaction was stronger than in the US market. Abnormal returns of block trades concluded at a discount were twice as high as those for the entire sample. Moreover, cross-border block trades had a negative impact on shareholder value creation, as did financial investors as an acquirer. However, cumulative average abnormal returns (CAARs) were driven up by the relative power of minority shareholders (ocean) prior to the transaction. The absolute size of the block acquired by an investor was also observed to have a positive impact on price rises and abnormal returns.     

THE WEALTH EFFECTS OF TRACKING STOCK RESTRUCTURINGS

We provide a comprehensive examination of the post‐issue wealth effects of 29 completed tracking stock restructurings. We document that for the parent stock and for the combined firm, tracking stock restructurings lead to insignificant long‐term excess returns. However, we find that shareholders of tracking stocks realize significant post‐issue wealth losses. Unlike spin‐offs and carve‐outs, announcements of tracking stock restructurings are preceded by negative one‐year excess returns, and unlike the positive post‐issue long‐term excess returns to spin‐off stocks and the insignificant long‐term excess returns to carve‐out stocks, tracking stocks experience negative long‐term excess returns.