Governance Mechanisms and Bond Prices

We investigate the effects of shareholder governance mechanismson bondholders and document two new findings. First, the impactof shareholder control (proxied by large institutional blockholders)on credit risk depends on takeover vulnerability. Shareholdercontrol is associated with higher (lower) yields if the firmis exposed to (protected from) takeovers. In the presence ofshareholder control, the difference in bond yields due to differencesin takeover vulnerability can be as high as 66 basis points.Second, event risk covenants reduce the credit risk associatedwith strong shareholder governance. Therefore, without bondcovenants, shareholder governance, and bondholder interestsdiverge.     

操纵证券交易价格行为的刑法研究——兼论前置法律责任的构建与完善

操纵证券交易价格达到一定程度会造成社会危害,为了抑制操纵证券交易价格行为的频繁发生,刑法的干预是必要的,并须彰显其及时性、确定性与严厉性。但是,囿于刑法的补充性,对证券犯罪的惩治方式必须多元化,单纯依靠刑事处罚或者行政处罚,都不可能有效惩治和预防证券操纵犯罪,应该使刑法与民法、行政法等配套协调,组成有机的犯罪预防和惩罚体系,共同消除证券操纵行为的危害。     

News Trading and Speed

We compare the optimal trading strategy of an informed speculator when he can trade ahead of incoming news (is “fast”), versus when he cannot (is “slow”). We find that speed matters: the fast speculator's trades account for a larger fraction of trading volume, and are more correlated with short‐run price changes. Nevertheless, he realizes a large fraction of his profits from trading on long‐term price changes. The fast speculator's behavior matches evidence about high‐frequency traders. We predict that stocks with more informative news are more liquid even though they attract more activity from informed high‐frequency traders.     

Trading Patterns and Prices in the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market

The behavior of quote arrivals and bid-ask spreads is examined for continuously recorded deutsche mark-dollar exchange rate data over time, across locations, and by market participants. A pattern in the intraday spread and intensity of market activity over time is uncovered and related to theories of trading patterns. Models for the conditional mean and variance of returns and bid-ask spreads indicate volatility clustering at high frequencies. The proposition that trading intensity has an independent effect on returns volatility is rejected, but holds for spread volatility. Conditional returns volatility is increasing in the size of the spread.     

Secondary Trading Costs in the Municipal Bond Market

Using new econometric methods, we separately estimate average transaction costs for over 167,000 bonds from a 1‐year sample of all U.S. municipal bond trades. Municipal bond transaction costs decrease with trade size and do not depend significantly on trade frequency. Also, municipal bond trades are substantially more expensive than similar‐sized equity trades. We attribute these results to the lack of bond market price transparency. Additional cross‐sectional analyses show that bond trading costs increase with credit risk, instrument complexity, time to maturity, and time since issuance. Investors, and perhaps ultimately issuers, might benefit if issuers issued simpler bonds.     

Trading Activity and Price Volatility in the Municipal Bond Market

Utilizing a comprehensive database of transactions in municipal bonds, we investigate the volume–volatility relation in the municipal bond market. We find a positive relation between the number of transactions and a bond's price volatility. In contrast to previous studies, we find a negative relation between average deal size and price volatility. These results are found to be robust throughout the sample. Our results are inconsistent with current theoretical models of the volume–volatility relation. These inconsistencies may arise because current models fail to account for the effects of overall market liquidity on the costs of large transactions.     

基于套利理论与ICIR模型的债券市场发行定价偏离研究

基于套利定价理论与利率期限结构理论,运用Tobit多元线性回归模型,得出债券发行定价的主要影响因素为债券无风险利率、债券期限溢价、债项信用评级、债券主体信用评级和债券赎回风险溢价,在此基础上再通过改进的CIR定价模型(ICIR)对2006～2010年各债券定价偏离现象进行研究的结果表明,在1%的显著性水平上,ICIR模型测算的债券理论价格通过了二级市场的定价检验,ICIR模型对债券发行定价偏离进行检验具有较强的合理性;同时,从发行年份来看,近五年来,债券定价偏离总体呈逐年下降趋势,债券发行定价与ICIR定价与二级市场定价逐步接轨,市场化程度越来越高。     

基于博弈论的债券询价交易机制设计

我国债券市场存量规模已跃居世界第二,但流动性仍相对缺乏,重要原因是现行询价机制效率偏低。文章针对当前询价模式的问题,基于博弈论构建兼顾公平、安全与效率的债券询价交易机制。其在中性市场条件下具备可行性和有效性,对于单边市场也具有兼容性。通过改进债券询价交易机制提高成交效率,能够降低流动性溢价,更好服务实体经济,同时提高我国债券市场的国际影响力。     

The Reaction of Investors and Stock Prices to Insider Trading

Trading by corporate insiders and their tippees is analyzed in Anheuser-Busch's 1982 tender offer for Campbell Taggart. Court records that identify insider transactions are used to disentangle the individual insider trades from liquidity trades. Consistent with previous studies, insider trading was found to have had a significant impact on the price' of Campbell Taggart. However, the impact of informed trading on the market is complicated. Trading volume net of insider purchases rose. Contrary to the broad implications of adverse selection models, Campbell Taggart's liquidity improved when the insiders were active in the market, and the insiders received superior execution for their orders.     

Mutual Fund Herding and the Impact on Stock Prices

We analyze the trading activity of the mutual fund industry from 1975 through 1994 to determine whether funds "herd" when they trade stocks and to investigate the impact of herding on stock prices. Although we find little herding by mutual funds in the average stock, we find much higher levels in trades of small stocks and in trading by growth-oriented funds. Stocks that herds buy outperform stocks that they sell by 4 percent during the following six months; this return difference is much more pronounced among small stocks. Our results are consistent with mutual fund herding speeding the price-adjustment process.     

Stock and Bond Liquidity and its Effect on Prices and Financial Policies

An asset is liquid if it can be traded at the prevailing market price quickly and at low cost. We show that in addition to risk, liquidity affects asset prices and returns. Theories of asset pricing suggest that the expected return of an asset is increasing in its risk, because risk-averse investors require compensation for bearing more risk. Because investors are also averse to the costs of illiquidity and want to be compensated for bearing them, asset returns are increasing in illiquidity. Thus, asset prices should depend on two asset characteristics: risk and liquidity. This paper surveys research on the effects of liquidity on asset prices and returns, showing that liquidity is an important factor in capital asset pricing.     

House Prices and Economic Growth

Using quarterly data for all 379 metropolitan statistic areas (MSAs) in the U.S. from 1980:1 to 2008:2, this paper empirically studies the effect of house prices on local Gross Metropolitan Product (GMP). We compare the effects of predictable and unpredictable house price changes, which we use to capture the collateral and wealth effects of house prices respectively. We further analyze the relationship between the effects and household borrowing constraints, as well as the temporal pattern of the effects. Our analysis provides the following findings. First, house price changes have significant effects on GMP growth, and the effect of predictable changes (the collateral effect) is about three times stronger than the effect of unpredictable changes (the wealth effect). Second, the persistent component of predictable changes has a stronger collateral effect than the novel component. Third, when households are more financially constrained, the collateral effect is stronger, the wealth effect is weaker, and the total effect remains unchanged. Finally, the effects last for eight quarters, and peak on the fourth quarter after house price changes take place.     

Methodological Considerations in the Statistical Modeling of Catastrophe Bond Prices

The problem of specifying and fitting a statistical model of the pricing of property catastrophe risk is addressed from a methodological perspective. Notable 21st century published efforts to do this are reviewed. The problem is framed in a business context and various strategic and tactical issues are investigated. A naïve application of ordinary least squares regression is seen to have undesirable consequences. Alternative approaches are offered, including weighted least squares with weights inversely proportional to capital requirements, and alternative functional forms. Recommendations are offered.     

The Role of Correlated Trading in Setting REIT Prices

This study investigates the role of correlated trading by individuals in setting equity real estate investment trust (REIT) prices. Consistent with existing literature, this study finds that there is a common element in correlated trades that drives both traditional closed-end fund prices and REIT prices. Perhaps more important, we find evidence suggesting that (1) the effects of correlated trading on REIT prices are stronger for those REITs that are hypothesized to be preferred by individual investors, and (2) this linkage is stronger when the REIT market is hot and exuberant; i.e., when the average share turnover in the REIT market is high.     

Japanese Corporate Pension Plans and the Impact on Stock Prices

This study focuses on the stock market impact of Japanese corporate decisions to adopt pension plans. Implementing corporate pension plans in Japan is complicated because they are heavily regulated by the government and the traditional lump‐sum‐only severance benefit plans already exist, requiring interfacing newly adopted plans with existing ones. Using the GARCH estimation method, the market model applied in this article for the relatively long period 1975–1995 yields evidence that suggests that the stock market responds to some of the more specific characteristics of adopted plans. Alternative specifications of the pension “event” also suggest that relatively little of the market impact comes from public announcements about pension adoption occasioned by the release of a firm's financial statement.     

Corporate Bond Trading Costs: A Peek Behind the Curtain

In this paper, I use institutional corporate bond trade data to estimate transactions costs in the over-the-counter bond market. I find average round-trip trading costs to be about $0.27 per $100 of par value. Trading costs are lower for larger trades. Small institutions pay more to trade than large institutions, all else being equal. Small bond dealers charge more than large ones. I find no evidence that trading costs more for lower-rated bonds.     

An International Analysis of Earnings, Stock Prices and Bond Yields

Abstract:  This paper assesses the contemporaneous relationship between stock prices, earnings and long-term government bond yields for a large number of countries. The time period of our data spans several decades. In a time series framework our analysis first tests the presence of a long-term contemporaneous relationship between these three variables (the so-called Fed model). Next, we assess if government bond yields play a significant role in the long-run relationship. Our empirical results question the validity of the Fed model in the sense that we show that long-term market movements are mainly driven by the earnings yield and not the differential between bond and earnings yields. As such, our analysis validates the results of Asness (2003) for a much larger collection of countries while using a dynamic time series (cointegration) framework. Finally, we also show that changes in long-term government bond yields have a short-term impact on stock prices.     

Impact of Divergent Consumer Confidence on Option Prices

This paper investigates the impact of divergent consumer confidence on option prices. To model this, we assume that consumers disagree on the expected growth rate of aggregate consumption. With other conditions unchanged in the discrete-time Black–Scholes option-pricing model, we show that the representative consumer will have declining relative risk aversion instead of the assumed constant relative risk aversion. In this case all options will be underpriced by the Black–Scholes model under the assumption of bivariate lognormality. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.