Future rent-seeking and current public savings

The conventional wisdom is that politicians' rent-seeking motives increase public debt and deficits. This is because myopic politicians face political risk and prefer to extract political rents as early as possible. In this paper we study the determination of government debt and deficits in a dynamic political economy model. We show that this conventional wisdom relies on economic volatility being low relative to political uncertainty. If economic volatility is high relative to political uncertainty, then a rent-seeking government actually over-saves and over-taxes along the equilibrium path relative to a benevolent government. This result emerges because of the option value of rent-seeking: a rent-seeking government over-values future funds because of the possibility of using them for future rents instead of cutting taxes in the event of a future boom (when marginal utility of private consumption is low). This over-saving bias is temporary since, in the long run, the rent-seeking government over-borrows relative to the benevolent government as it eventually squanders the funds it has accumulated. We find that both the under-saving and over-saving bias of the government can be solved by a rule of capping deficits.     

Mass incarceration and consumer financial harm: Critique of rent-seeking by the carceral state

Mass incarceration is an approach to managing public safety that emphasizes detention over other means. It is also neoliberalism's quintessential political and economic project because it mobilizes a prison industrial complex to generate revenue. We highlight rent-seeking, the pursuit of extra-budgetary revenues by carceral agencies, because it inflicts financial harm on incarcerated consumers and their supporters. Carceral agencies leverage government's authority to set the conditions of detention. However, when they also leverage government's market-making authority to seek rents from incarcerated persons we characterize that as a government failure. To understand it, we depart from a focus on corruption by specific actors to highlight features of institutions that enable unethical behavior. We join activists and elected officials who call for an end to mass incarceration, but we also highlight more immediate reforms that can help restrain rent-seeking and enable greater public scrutiny of the carceral state.     

The Effect of Government Spending on the Debt‐to‐GDP Ratio: Some Keynesian Arithmetic

According to the standard approach to the issue of public debt sustainability, fiscal austerity is the route that many countries must currently follow to reduce their debt‐to‐GDP ratios back to sustainable paths. We challenge this conventional wisdom and argue that, below full employment, an increase in government spending may paradoxically reduce the debt‐to‐GDP ratio. This claim is particularly relevant today because with Central Bank interest rates near zero there is no alternative to fiscal policy, and the only argument against increasing government expenditure as a way to fight unemployment is its supposed negative effect on the state of public finances.     

Internal capital markets,empire building,and capital structure

Internal funds generated by assets in place are available to finance the bulk of new investment by nonfinancial firms. Self-interested management has incentives to misallocate these funds in order to increase their control rents. There are two ways to impact future discretionary investment. First, using debt diverts funds to creditors and away from management. Second, having in place more assets that do not provide internal financing reduces the funds subject to managerial discretion. Investment in such assets and debt financing are inversely related in controlling self-interested management. As a result, firms borrow more and own proportionally more assets that provide internal funds as the average profitability of these assets, or that of future investment, increases. Firms may borrow less while increasing investment in the less valuable assets that do not supply internal financing as the expected profitability of these assets increases.     

Evolving China Strategies: How the Japanese Compare

Taking a sceptical view of the ‘Asian miracles’ proposition that government failure is the main culprit behind development failure, this article reviews the Philippine development experience. The Philippine configuration consists of a weak state carrying out industrial promotion and a large private sector whose dynamics depend heavily on state-managed privileges. In the final section, the article proposes an alternative to the rent-seeking model, in which rents defined as returns contingent on political position and rivalry over political position determine private investment behaviour. In such a society, there is limited internal basis for structural change and growth is accidental to external developments.     

中日经贸架构下的ODA解读

围绕ODA这一不失为一种善举的日本对华政府援助，近期不断传出与其初衷相悖的声音。日方目前已把ODA传递中日友好的经济行为赋予其深重的负面影响中日关系的政治、外交法码的性质。肯定ODA对中国社会经济发展做出过一定贡献，同时须正视ODA91％以上的有偿性以及由于日元升值所导致中国的损失。目前ODA的去存已远远超出其问题本身，涉及中日间的资源、领土及政治等两国关系的实质问题。中方需要政治智慧并确立相应科学的对策。     

The Economics of Japan’s Stagnation

The Japanese economy has been mired in subdued growth and deflation for more than two decades. This paper describes the key economic facts and features of Japan’s decades of stagnation. It discusses why long-term Japanese government bonds’ nominal yields have stayed very low in spite of elevated government debt ratios and chronic fiscal deficits. It also provides a brief overview of Abenomics and recent economic developments in Japan.     

Not kennt kein Gebot? Sondervermögen als Speicher von Notlagenkrediten

The German federal government is facing criticism for using the exemption from the national debt brake due to the coronavirus crisis to expand the fiscal leeway for its future energy and climate policies. The budget dispute is taking place against the backdrop of a massive expansion of government debt in Europe. In the following, the author explain the critique of the latest supplementary budget and argues that the federal government has missed the opportunity to prove that the fiscal policy options within the existing rules are sufficient.

     

Time consistency of monetary policy in the open economy

This paper shows that in an open economy time-consistency problems are created not only by nominal government debt, but also by nominal private debt to foreigners. Given any external nominal debt, inflation redistributes wealth between domestic residents and foreigners. A government that cares about the welfare of its residents will be tempted to inflate whenever it or its residents have issued nominal debt to foreigners. An analysis of the U.S. net investment position shows that these international considerations have become increasingly relevant for the United States, because the recent external deficits have largely been financed in nominal terms.     

Robustness,information–processing constraints,and the current account in small open economies

In this paper we examine the effects of two types of “induced uncertainty”, model uncertainty due to robustness (RB) and state uncertainty due to finite information–processing capacity (called rational inattention or RI), on consumption and the current account. We show that the combination of RB and RI improves the model's predictions for (i) the contemporaneous correlation between the current account and income and (ii) the volatility and persistence of the current account in small open emerging and developed economies. In addition, we show that the two informational frictions improve the model's ability to match the impulse response of consumption to income and the relative volatility of consumption to income growth.     

Optimal fiscal policy in a small open economy with limited commitment

We introduce limited commitment into a standard optimal fiscal policy model in small open economies. We consider the problem of a benevolent government that signs a risk-sharing contract with the rest of the world, and that has to choose optimally distortionary taxes on labor income, domestic debt and international transfers. Both the home country and the rest of the world may have limited commitment, which means that they can leave the contract if they find it convenient. The contract is designed so that, at any point in time, neither party has incentives to exit. We define a small open emerging economy as an economy where the limited commitment problem is active in equilibrium. Conversely, a small open developed economy is an economy in which the commitment problem is not active. Our model is able to rationalize some stylized facts about fiscal policy in emerging economies: i) the volatility of tax revenues over GDP is higher in emerging economies than in developed ones; ii) fiscal policy is procyclical in emerging economies; iii) emerging economies may “graduate” from procyclical fiscal policy and adopt countercyclical policies in the long run.     

Economic policy uncertainty and fund flow performance sensitivity: Evidence from New Zealand

Utilizing a large sample of actively managed equity funds and a recently developed EPU index for New Zealand, we show that fund flow performance sensitivity decreases with policy uncertainty. The role of policy uncertainty as a determinant of fund flow performance sensitivity is found to be stronger, particularly for funds with global focus, large sized funds, high momentum funds and those with high idiosyncratic volatility and low downside risk. The findings support the argument that high policy uncertainty dampens investors' ability to process information that allows them to distinguish fund manager skill from luck. The results remain strong after accounting for various macroeconomic factors.     

The value of family control during political uncertainty: Evidence from Thailand's constitutional change in 2014

We examine the effect of family control on firm value and corporate decision during Thailand's constitutional change arising from the 2014 coup d'état. We find that Thai family firms perform poorly when compared to non-family firms during the period of political uncertainty. The effect is more pronounced when firms have high expected agency costs from outside investors. Further, we find that family firms delay their investments, hold less cash, pay smaller dividends and have poorer access to debt financing sources relative to non-family firms. The reductions in investment and financing activities may at least partially account for their underperformance. Our evidence is consistent with the view that family control enhances firms' survivorship by establishing political connections in times of political uncertainty at the expense of minority shareholders.     

The Defense Industry: Tradeoffs Between Fiscal Constraints and National Security Challenges

The global defense sector is faced with uncertainty and volatility in government demand, which is driven by fiscal constraints, as well as shifting defense priorities in various nations. This paper discusses the challenges facing the U.S. government and defense contractors, and provides perspectives on potential strategies for these groups which are designed to mitigate risks and to sustain the defense sector. It emphasizes the importance of the continued growth of the defense sector through greater stability in funding, which would, in turn, assist in sustaining defense demand in response to national security challenges. The paper discusses the trends and composition in U.S. defense spending, the strategies used by the armed services to handle national security concerns and fiscal constraints, the impact on the defense industry of closure or development of key programs, and the strategies used by defense firms to handle the volatility in demand. Collaboration between nations may be a key strategy for sustaining global stability, since combining equipment and forces in various regions helps to alleviate fiscal constraints in various countries.     

最优铸币税、通货膨胀与财政可持续性研究

当前我国政府财政赤字规模不断增加,政府债务规模居高不下,铸币税作为政府重要的资金来源之一,将其纳入政府预算约束恒等式来综合考量我国政府财政可持续性具有重要意义。本文通过理论模型将铸币税纳入政府跨期预算恒等式构建财政可持性指标,得到通货膨胀与财政可持续性之间的正相关关系。然后采用1978-2018年的经济数据,实证检验铸币税、财政可持续性与通货膨胀之间的长期协整关系。结果表明:我国的铸币税与通货膨胀处于Laffer曲线的右侧,即我国的铸币税与通货膨胀在长期呈现出正相关的关系;财政可持续性与通货膨胀存在相互之间的正向效应;铸币税是我国政府保持财政可持续性的重要资金来源。因此,应加强财政政策和货币政策的协调配合,建立科学的政府债务管理体制,同时应设立科学的跨期财政预警指标以防范财政风险。     

塔洛克寻租理论对我国房地产业资源优化配置的启示

根据塔洛克对寻租活动社会成本的分析,寻租活动的发生是通过政府的政治行程进行的,它影响社会经济运行的交易成本。在我国,利益集团的寻租活动对房地产行业资源配置产生的负面效应是:寻租活动增加政府的廉政成本,误导社会的资源流向。要使我国的房地产行业资源得到一个较为合理有效的配置,政府应改革土地使用权出让制度;完善政府的信息披露制度;实行激励机制与制约机制相结合的制度。同时,政府要明确自身的权利、权力和责任,贯彻好国家的各项经济政策,提高行政效率;社会各方面也要对其进行监督,使政府自律与他律相结合。     

The drift factor in biased futures index pricing models: A new look

The presence of bias in index futures prices has been investigated in various research studies. Redfield ( 11 ) asserted that the U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) futures contract traded on the U.S. Cotton Exchange (now the FINEX division of the New York Board of Trade) could be systematically arbitraged for nontrivial returns because it is expressed in so‐called “European terms” (foreign currency units/U.S. dollar). Eytan, Harpaz, and Krull ( 4 ) (EHK) developed a theoretical factor using Brownian motion to correct for the European terms and the bias due to the USDX index being expressed as a geometric average. Harpaz, Krull, and Yagil ( 5 ) empirically tested the EHK index. They used the historical volatility to proxy the EHK volatility specification. Since 1990, it has become more commonplace to use option‐implied volatility for forecasting future volatility. Therefore, we have substituted option implied volatilities into EHK's correction factor and hypothesized that the correction factor is “better” ex ante and therefore should lead to better futures model pricing. We tested this conjecture using twelve contracts from 1995 through 1997 and found that the use of implied volatility did not improve the bias correction over the use of historical volatility. Furthermore, no matter which volatility specification we used, the model futures price appeared to be mis‐specified. To investigate further, we added a simple naïve δ based on a modification of the adaptive expectations model. Repeating the tests using this naïve “drift” factor, it performed substantially better than the other two specifications. Our conclusion is that there may be a need to take a new look at the drift‐factor specification currently in use. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22:579–598, 2002     

Sovereign defaults and liquidity crises

Sovereign debt crises in emerging markets are usually associated with liquidity and banking crises. The conventional view is that the domestic turmoil is the consequence of foreign retaliation, although there is no clear empirical evidence on “classic” default penalties. This paper emphasizes, instead, a direct link between sovereign defaults and liquidity crises building on two natural assumptions: (i) government bonds represent a source of liquidity for the domestic private sector and (ii) the government cannot discriminate between domestic and foreign creditors in the event of default. In this context, external debt emerges even in the absence of classic penalties, and government default is countercyclical, triggers a liquidity crunch, and amplifies output volatility. In addition, a reform that involves a substitution of government bonds with privately-sourced liquidity instruments could backfire by restricting governments' access to foreign credit.     

Modeling a country's political environment using dynamic factor analysis (DFA): A new methodology for IB research

Political uncertainty generates non-trivial costs for business, resulting in suboptimal decision-making and suppression of economic activity. Managing political uncertainty and attaining greater accuracy in risk analysis of a country's political environment remain a challenge. Our research attempts to fill this gap by re-directing scholarly attention from the questions of what and why to how political uncertainty and political risks can be identified and assessed by (1) offering a process-based theoretical framework of a country's political environment that explicitly incorporates its dynamic structure; and (2) proposing a new methodological framework based on DFA to empirically estimate it. We demonstrate how DFA enables evaluating the country's political environment, in terms of: (1) complexity of the political environment, (2) potency (or importance) of the dimensions of the political environment; (3) stability of the political environment, and (4) nomological validity of the model. To demonstrate the application of this methodology, we analyze Brazil's political environment for the period 1984–2018 using monthly political risk time-series data. The paper then maps Brazil's political environment using political science scholarship with our empirical results triangulating the insights. The final section discusses contributions to research on political risk in IB as well as the methodological challenges and opportunities of using DFA.     

Uncertainty and the volatility forecasting power of option-implied volatility

This study investigates the impact of uncertainty on the volatility forecasting power of option-implied volatility. Option-implied volatility is a powerful predictor of future volatility, particularly during periods of high uncertainty. This is consistent with option-implied volatility being largely determined by volatility-informed traders (rather than directional traders) when uncertainty is high. New volatility forecasting models that incorporate such interaction outperform benchmark models, both in- and out-of-sample. The new models also better predict future volatility during the 2008 global financial crisis, for which benchmark models perform poorly. The results are robust to alternative choices of benchmark models, loss functions, and estimation windows.