The effect of pension accounting on corporate pension asset allocation

We examine the impact of new pension disclosures and subsequent full pension recognition under FRS 17 and IAS 19 in the United Kingdom and SFAS 158 in the United States on pension asset allocation. These standards require recognition of net pension surplus/deficit on the balance sheet and actuarial gains/losses in other comprehensive income. Therefore, these standards introduce volatility into comprehensive income and balance sheets. We identify a disclosure period during which UK companies disclosed all the required data under FRS 17 in the notes without recognition. We also identify a full recognition period starting 1 year before until 1 year after the adoption of FRS 17/IAS 19 (UK) and SFAS 158 (US). We predict and find that UK companies, on average, shifted pension assets from equity to debt securities during both the disclosure and the full recognition periods. We also find that while before the adoption of SFAS 158 US companies maintained a stable allocation to equities and bonds, these companies, on average, shifted funds from equities to bonds around the adoption of SFAS 158. Cross-sectional analysis shows that the shift away from equities is related to changes in funding levels, shorter investment horizons, increased financial leverage, and the expected impact of the new standards on shareholders’ equity.     

Determinants of pension funding and asset allocation decisions

Prior research suggests that the funding and asset allocation decisions for defined benefit pension plans may be based on tax, risk, and profitability factors. Much of the previous empirical work, however, suffers from statistical problems that may produce misleading or contradictory results. We employ a confirmatory factor analytic model to address the statistical problems plaguing pension research. Various competing hypotheses are tested simultaneously. Findings indicate that firms use pensions to offset business risk.An earlier version of this article was presented at the Financial Management Association Meetings held in Toronto, October 1993. Much of the work on this article was done while the authors were at the University of Texas-Arlington.     

Risk tolerance and asset allocation for investors nearing retirement

This paper uses a large individual-level data set to isolate the effects of risk tolerance on portfolio composition. We test and confirm two predictions of the Capital Asset Pricing Model: (1) increased risk tolerance reduces an individual’s propensity to purchase risk-free assets; and (2) higher risk tolerance does not affect the composition of an individual’s portfolio of risky assets. More specifically, we find that risk tolerant investors nearing retirement do not reduce their bond allocations in order to buy more stock.     

Macroeconomic influences on optimal asset allocation

We develop a tactical asset allocation strategy that incorporates the effects of macroeconomic variables. The joint distribution of financial asset returns and the macroeconomic variables is modelled using a VAR with a multivariate GARCH (M-GARCH) error structure. As a result, the portfolio frontier is time varying and subject to contagion from the macroeconomic variable. Optimal asset allocation requires that this be taken into account. We illustrate how to do this using three risky UK assets and inflation as a macroeconomic factor. Taking account of inflation generates portfolio frontiers that lie closer to the origin and offers investors superior risk-return combinations.     

The asset allocation decision in retirement: lessons from dollar-cost averaging

How should a retiree allocate his wealth between stocks and bonds? We address this question by studying whether it would have been better to have consumed periodically from stocks than from bonds over the seven decades of U.S. financial markets beginning in 1926 and ending in 1995. We find that retirees would have consistently done better by investing in stocks as opposed to bonds. When we analyze dispersion in consumption around its mean we find that there are greater chances for low consumption from the bond portfolio and greater chances for high consumption from the stock portfolio. Thus, we challenge the conventional wisdom that one should move away from stocks and towards bonds as one ages.     

Equity risk versus retirement adequacy: asset allocation solutions for KiwiSaver

New Zealand's KiwiSaver superannuation system operates with a conservatively low asset allocation towards equity investments. Evidence suggests ‘conservative’ portfolios are riskier than portfolios holding more growth assets when considering shortfall risk. This study employs stochastic simulation to determine the optimal asset allocation to improve the balance of probabilities for retirement adequacy. The findings show that KiwiSaver default funds are excessively conservative, preventing investors from reaching their retirement goals. Increasing the asset allocation to equities across the range of available KiwiSaver funds is the only solution to significantly improve retirement adequacy in New Zealand given the low contribution rates observed.     

Dynamic incentives and retirement

This paper examines multi-period compensation contracts when retirement is anticipated. Short-term contracts in long-term employment relationships are equivalent to a long-term renegotiation-proof contract. The dynamic of incentive rates is determined by (i) how and in which periods managerial effort affects the contractible performance measures; and by (ii) the time-series correlation of error terms in performance reports. The model explains why long-term investments can decrease while incentive rates increase as managers approach retirement. Earnings persistence is negatively associated to earnings-based incentive rates but, towards retirement, high earnings persistence implies increasing earnings-based incentive rates.     

Modelling optimal asset allocation when households experience health shocks

Health status is an important factor in household portfolio decision-making. We develop a theoretical framework to model how households make optimal asset allocation decisions in response to health risks. Our two- and three-asset models both suggest that the maximum utility is derived when households allocate a majority of their assets to human capital. When households experience acute illness shocks, their welfare and portfolio values reduce, and they need to increase their investment in human capital. When an expensive health catastrophe befalls member(s) of households, the optimal decision for asset-rich households is to undertake medical treatment, whereas for asset-poor households it is to forgo treatment. Asset-poor households in particular require public financial assistance to enable them to invest in human capital.     

Hedge funds and optimal asset allocation: Bayesian expectations and spanning tests

This paper analyzes the contribution of hedge funds to optimal asset allocations between 1993 and 2010. The preferences of specific institutional investors are captured by implementing a Bayesian asset allocation framework that incorporates heterogeneous expectations regarding hedge fund alpha. Mean-variance spanning tests are used to infer the ability of hedge funds to significantly enhance the mean-variance efficient frontier. Further, a novel democratic variance decomposition procedure sheds light on the dynamics in the co-movement of hedge fund returns with a set of common benchmark assets. The empirical findings indicate that portfolio benefits of hedge funds are time-varying and strongly depend on investor optimism regarding hedge funds’ ability to generate alpha. In general, allocations to hedge funds improve the global minimum variance portfolio even after controlling for short-selling restrictions and minimum diversification constraints. However, due to dynamics underlying the composition of the aggregate hedge fund universe, the factor structure of hedge fund returns has become more similar to the benchmark assets over time.     

Valuation of asset leasing contracts

This paper describes the relation among a variety of asset leasing contracts, including: (1) cancellable operating leases; (2) leases which grant the lesse an option to extend the life of the lease; (3) leases that grant the lessee an option to purchase the leased asset at a fixed price at the maturity date of the lease; (4) leases that grant the lessee the right to purchase the leased asset at its ‘fair market value’ at the maturity date of the lease; (5) leases that grant an option to the lessee to purchase the leased asset at a prespecified price anytime during the life of the lease; (6) leases that require the lessee to purchase the leased asset at a fixed price at the maturity date of the lease; and (7) leases that contain non-cancellation provisions. The paper uses a compound option pricing framework to develop a general model for valuing (or evaluating) each of the types of leasing contracts. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the effect of the various elements of a leasing contract — including cancellation risk and residual value risk — on equilibrium rental payments.     

Performance evaluation of balanced pension plans

This paper examines the ability of balanced pension plan managers to successfully time the equity and bond market and select the appropriate assets within these markets. In order to evaluate both market timing abilities in these balanced pension plans, we extend the traditional equity market timing models to also account for bond market timing. As far as we know, we are among the first to apply this multifactor timing model to investigate equity and bond market timing simultaneously. This performance evaluation has been conducted on two samples of Spanish balanced pension plans, one with Euro Zone and one with World investment focus. This allows us to decompose managers’ skills into three components: selectivity, equity market timing, and bond market timing. Our findings suggest that the average stock-picking ability of pension plans is positive. World schemes tend to have positive bond timing skills, while Euro Zone pension plans are on average not able to time equity or bond markets.     

Managerial risk taking incentives and corporate pension policy

We examine whether the compensation incentives of top management affect the extent of risk shifting versus risk management behavior in pension plans. We find that risk shifting through pension underfunding (and, to a lesser extent, through pension asset allocation to risky securities) is stronger with compensation structures that create high wealth-risk sensitivity (vega) and weaker with high wealth-price sensitivity (delta). These findings are stronger for chief financial officers (CFOs) than for chief executive officers (CEOs), suggesting that pension policy falls within the CFO’s domain. Risk shifting through pension underfunding is also lower when the CFO’s personal stake in the pension plan is larger. Overall, these findings show that top managers’ compensation structure is an important driver of corporate pension policy. They also highlight firms within which the moral hazard concerns fueled by Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation insurance are most relevant.     

Machine learning and asset allocation

Investors have access to a large array of structured and unstructured data. We consider how these data can be incorporated into financial decisions through the lens of the canonical asset allocation decision. We characterize investor preference for simplicity in models of the data used in the asset allocation decision. The simplicity parameters then guide asset allocation along with the usual risk aversion parameter. We use three distinct and diverse macroeconomic data sets to implement the model to forecast equity returns (the equity risk premium). The data sets we use are (a) price‐dividend ratios, (b) an array of macroeconomic series, and (c) text data from the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.     

Corporate taxes and defined benefit pension plans

The Tepper–Black arguments for tax-arbitrage opportunities from overfunding pension plans are critically examined and modifications proposed. Tax status, a function of current marginal tax rates and expected future taxable income, is predicted to determine funding policy. Tests of this modified tax benefits view suggest that 1) tax status declines are associated with pension contribution reductions, 2) reductions in contributions are related to previous excess contributions as well as non-pension tax shield increases causing the decline in tax status, and 3) cross-sectionally, tax status is related to fund levels, choice of actuarial variables, and the use of defined benefit plans.     

Worries and plans as individuals approach retirement

The primary objective of an employment-based retirement plan is to provide a secure and adequate income for workers throughout retirement. In the defined contribution (DC) framework, asset accumulation is a means to the end, but not the end. Drawing retirement income from savings and paying for health care expenses in retirement are the two issues that concern individuals the most as they approach retirement. This article examines the attitudes of near-retirees regarding these risks and their plans for managing them. The author discusses how DC plan design can have a major impact on how individuals convert their retirement savings to retirement income; differences in survey responses between those who have consulted a financial advisor or other financial professional and those who have not; and the role of trust in implementing advice.     

Political-economy of pension plans: Impact of institutions,gender, and culture

National pension systems are an important part of financial intermediation and worker welfare in most countries, but how and why do they differ internationally? Controlling for important political, economic and social institutions, we document that international differences in pension progressivity, or how pensions reflect lifetime earnings, are negatively related to masculinity, uncertainty avoidance, individualism, long-term orientation, employment rights, average pension levels, social trust and economic inequality. We also find that pension progressivity is positively related to the economic and societal role of women, the extent of Catholicism; as well as political voice and accountability. These results provide important insights for both public policy and MNC managers.