欧洲银行压力测试有惊无险

7月23日，欧洲银行业压力测试的结果揭开面纱。结果显示，接受测试的91家欧洲银行，仅有包括德国地产融资抵押银行在内的7家银行未能通过测试，不合格率为7．7％。     

欧洲银行“压力测试”的争议

在美国银行业刚刚完成了“压力测试”的任务并得到了市场的正面评价之后。欧洲也在国际货币基金组织（IMF）的要求下释放出了行将对域内银行进行“压力测试”的消息。不过,无论是在测试标准还是在测试结果上,欧洲银行的“压力测试”不会克隆美国。而正是操作方法的差异,市场对于欧洲银行的“压力测试”就会表现出不同的反应。     

欧洲银行压力测试的启示

2010年7月23日,欧洲银行监管委员会（CEBS）公布了欧洲银行压力测试的结果。这些测试涉及欧洲91家银行,其目的是确定银行体系的稳健性,以恢复市场信心,并采取相关行动来完善目前银行业的不足。总体而言,若欧洲经济出现该测试提及的最糟糕情景,欧洲银行可能面临5660亿欧元的潜在亏损,其中670亿欧元与主权债务冲击有关。到2011年底,总体的一级资本充足率将从2009年的10．3％下降至9．2％。     

金融稳定评估与中国银行业压力测试分析

本文简要评述了金融稳定评估FSAP ,对银行业压力测试和国内银行压力测试现状进行介绍 ,为国内银行进行金融稳定分析提供参考。     

解读欧洲银行业压力测试

欧洲主权债务危机的爆发引起全球金融市场的持续波动。为了重塑市场信心,欧盟对欧洲地区近百家银行进行了一系列压力测试。7月23日,欧洲银行业监管委员会(CEBS)与欧洲央行(ECB)、欧盟委员会(EC)联合公布了压力测试结果。结果显示,即便遭遇经济"二次探底"和主权债务危机的双重打击,接受测试的91家欧洲银行中仍有84家可将核心资本充足率维持在6%以上,通过率达92%。这91家接受测试的银行资产规模占到欧洲银行业的65%。     

西班牙银行业的危机与自救

由于去年7月欧盟所进行的第一轮压力测试结果并未反映出欧洲银行所面临的真实风险而备受市场质疑,,加之今年以来欧债危机升级和扩散的压力,欧盟不得不在近期启动了新一轮更严格、更透明的银行压力测试。据7月15日公布的最新压力测试结果表明,在未能通过测试的8家银行中,西班牙就占了5家。由于银行业往往是金融危机的“病灶”地带,西班牙银行裸露出的巨大风险不能不让市场神经为之高度紧张起来,而一个主流性判断是,在目前欧盟成员国中拥有最大规模坏账和呆账的西班牙银行业很可能成为西班牙主权债务危机的引爆点。     

地方法人银行流动性风险评估与思考——基于34家机构流动性压力测试实证分析

压力测试是金融危机后监管改革的重要组成部分,已成为银行业监管的基石。当前国内发生的"包商银行接管事件"、"锦州银行重组事件"也深刻表明新常态下我国银行业风险较为严峻。根据人民银行金融稳定局开展压力测试的工作部署,本文选取了湖北省内38家地方法人银行机构开展流动性压力测试,对压力测试流程进行详细介绍,对压力测试中发现的相关问题进行思考,最后从监管和银行两个层面给出相关建议。     

关于我国银行业压力测试的若干思考

全球金融危机以来,压力测试技术得到各国监管部门和银行业的高度重视。例如,2009年上半年美国银行监管部门对资产超过1000亿美元的19家银行进行了压力测试（这些银行总资产占全美银行业资产总额约2／3），欧盟银行监管部门对欧洲22家领先银行进行了压力测试（这些银行总资产约占欧盟银行业总资产的60％）。中国银监会近年来也组织各商业银行开展了多次压力测试。尤其是近期针对房地产的压力测试，受到业界乃至媒体、社会公众的广泛关注。     

国外银行业压力测试经验做法对我国商业银行的启示

银行压力测试作为一种控制银行业风险的手段,越来越受到世界各国的重视。目前,我国银行业也将压力测试作为银行业日常管理的一项内容,并定期根据测试结果进行信贷政策的相应调整,但我国压力测试工作尚处于起步阶段,需进一步完善。本文结合国外进行的几次银行业压力测试经验做法的归纳总结,以便更好地促进我国银行业压力测试工作的推进。     

国内外银行压力测试研究与应用现状综述

压力测试（stresstesting）是指利用一系列方法来评估金融体系承受罕见但是仍然可能（extreme butplausible）的宏观经济冲击或者重大事件的过程,以此找出金融机构在极端市场情况下的承受能力。随着各国金融监管当局对系统性风险的日趋重视,宏观压力测试方法逐渐成为检验一国银行体系的脆弱性、维护金融稳定的首选工具。目前,压力测试已在美、英等国金融机构中得到广泛和深入的应用,我国也逐渐把压力测试作为金融系统风险管理的重要手段,但是我国商业银行在压力测试的运用方面仍处于起步阶段。基于以上原因,本文在归纳总结国内外相关研究成果的基础上,系统介绍压力测试的内涵及这种风险测量技术在国内外银行业的研究与应用现状,提出了我国压力测试存在的不足和未来努力的方向。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.