A model of demand,productivity and foreign location decision among Taiwanese firms

We develop a theoretical framework to examine the relative importance of firm demand and productivity in firm decisions to export and where to locate foreign direct investments. The model shows that the equilibrium firm decision depends on product technology, consumer preference for product quality, fixed investment costs of establishing a foreign subsidiary, transportation costs and relative wages. Our empirical results confirm the predictions of the theoretical model. Firm-level demand and productivity components are important in explaining the decision to participate in foreign markets with their relative importance depending on the firm's organizational form (exports versus FDI) and the destination of the investments. In general, FDI firms are more productive than exporting firms regardless of FDI destinations. FDI firms also have a higher demand component than exporters and this demand component is stronger than productivity. Finally, among FDI firms, while those with a high demand index and productivity have a significantly higher propensity to invest in high-income countries, firm productivity is the sole determinant of firms undertaking FDI in low-income countries.     

中国制造业企业利润决定机制研究——基于异质性生产率的视角

基于异质性生产率角度提出决定企业利润的数量模型,使用中国制造业企业样本数据研究企业的利润状况,并且提出衡量企业利润状况的两种利润率,即销售利润率与投资利润率,最后实证检验生产率对企业利润的决定作用。研究结论显示:中国制造业企业的投资利润率具有逐渐提高的趋势,而销售利润率却具有逐渐下降的趋势;企业生产率与其利润规模呈显著的正相关关系,并且具有相同生产率的企业选择进入出口市场会获得更高的利润。     

Expanding to outward foreign direct investment or not? A multi-dimensional analysis of entry mode transformation of Chinese private exporting firms

This research examines the factors determining whether or not exporting firms expand to outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) as part of their internationalisation strategy, using a recent survey of Chinese private-owned enterprises. We carry out a multi-dimensional analysis to investigate the impact of firm productivity, internal resources and the external environment on OFDI decisions, including both the decision to undertake OFDI and the volume of OFDI flows. It is found that productivity, technology-based capability, export experience, industry entry barriers, subnational institutions and intermediary institutional support affect firms’ OFDI decisions. The findings have important policy and managerial implications.     

FDI强度与珠三角装备制造业低碳化转型发展——基于投入产出与面板数据的实证研究

当前,外商直接投资在珠三角装备制造业发展中的作用越来越不容忽视。在此背景下,我们利用虚拟变量最小二乘法对珠三角九市装备制造业进行面板数据分析,结果显示不同来源地的外资进入强度对珠三角装备制造业低碳化发展的核心参量碳生产力产生了不同方向的影响。其中,FDI总体和海外华资对珠三角装备制造业碳生产力具有明显的负向影响,而外商投资虽然对碳生产力具有正向影响,但显著程度较弱。     

Export Market Participation,Investments in R&D and Worker Training,and the Evolution of Firm Productivity

This paper uses micro panel data for firms in the Taiwanese electronics industry in 1986, 1991 and 1996 to investigate a firm's decision to invest in two sources of knowledge – participation in the export market and investments in R&D and/or worker training – and assess their effect on the firm's future productivity. The firm's decisions to export and invest in R&D and/or worker training are modelled with a bivariate probit model that recognises the interdependence of the decisions. The effect of these investments on the firm's future productivity trajectory is then modelled while controlling for the selection bias introduced by endo‐genous firm exit. The findings indicate a significant interaction effect between exporting and R&D investments and future productivity, after controlling for size, age and current productivity. Firms that undertake both investment activities have significantly higher future productivity than firms that do one or neither. In addition, these firms are more likely to continue investing in these activities leading to further productivity gains. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that export experience is an important source of productivity growth for Taiwanese firms and that firm investments in R&D and worker training facilitate their ability to benefit from their exposure to the export market.     

The impact of the yuan‐dollar exchange rate on Mexican manufacturing exports to the US: A cointegration approach

This paper makes use of three econometric methods and three time intervals to evaluate the long‐term effects of several key variables on Mexican manufacturing exports to the US . The evidence across econometric techniques and sample periods systematically indicates that: (i) a real depreciation of the yuan‐dollar exchange rate reduces Mexican manufacturing exports by lowering the price of Chinese goods in the US market; (ii) a depreciation of the peso‐dollar real exchange rate generates a strong supply‐side effect due to the high import content of Mexican manufacturing exports, which ultimately leads to lower (rather than higher) sales in the US ; and (iii) external demand and labour productivity are positively related to manufacturing exports, whereas real wages are negatively related. Therefore, a falling external demand for Mexican manufacturing products or a real depreciation of the Chinese currency could, to some extent, be offset by increasing labour productivity faster than wages. These findings reflect two fundamental problems of the Mexican economy: (i) low investment in high‐quality formal instruction and proper training programs, which gives rise to severe bottleneck points for faster labour productivity growth and (ii) excessive reliance of the export‐oriented manufacturing industry on foreign suppliers of intermediate inputs.     

Foreign sourcing and exporting

The aim of this paper was analysing the role of sourcing intermediate inputs internationally on export decisions and distinguishing whether intermediates are sourced from firms belonging to the same business group or from independent suppliers. To analyse firms' export decisions, we use a specification that also accounts for sunk costs and accumulated experience in export markets (i.e., export market learning). We consider that importing intermediates might have direct and indirect effects (operating through enhanced productivity) on the export participation decision. The direct effects on exporting are isolated once we control for productivity and the effects of belonging to an international group. We use a manufacturing panel data set drawn from the Spanish Survey on Business Strategies (ESEE) for the period 2006–14. Both productivity and inward or outward FDI increase the probability of exporting. Moreover, our results uncover the existence of sunk costs and export market learning, and also the relevant role played by intermediate imports in firms' export choices. Their effects act both through the (indirect) channel of enhancing firms' productivity and through a direct effect related to product upgrading, more competitive selling prices or learning from the firm's import experience.     

Firm R&D,Absorptive Capacity and Learning by Exporting: Firm‐level Evidence from China

The absorptive capacity of firms developed through R&D promotes learning by exporting. In this paper, we estimate the instantaneous and long‐run productivity effects of exporting on the universe of Chinese manufacturing firms. We find that exporting has very different productivity effects for firms with different pre‐export R&D status. It has large and lasting productivity effects for firms with pre‐export R&D, while it has little effects for firms without pre‐export R&D. Furthermore, the effect of exporting increases with the number of years of pre‐export R&D investment.     

国际贸易对制造业行业就业的影响效应研究——基于动态面板数据模型的实证分析

构建一个扩展的劳动力需求动态计量模型,并利用系统GMM方法对2001—2008年中国制造业28个细分行业面板数据进行估计,检验国际贸易对制造业行业就业的影响效应。结果显示:出口、国内需求对制造业就业有显著正的影响,出口的就业影响效应大于国内需求;进口渗透以及出口导向引起的生产率变化对就业有消极作用,但都不显著;劳动力市场刚性对就业有显著影响。     

Firm heterogeneity,sunk costs,spatial characteristics and export market participation: Evidence from China

This paper develops a dynamic discrete-choice model to analyze the exporting decisions of Chinese firms in Zhejiang province. The results show that sunk costs are found to be significant and prior export experience, productivity, scale, FDI, export spillovers, coastal area and economic zones are all positively related with the propensity of exporting while state ownership concentration has a negative impact. The export behavior of firms varies with country-specific characteristics.     

Does Exporter Turnover Contribute to Aggregate Productivity Growth? Evidence from Malaysian Manufacturing

Malaysia’s economic success is to a significant extent underpinned by its export‐oriented manufacturing sector. The sector has a large foreign presence, with MNCs attracted by the open trade and investment regime, and FDI‐friendly policies. Using unpublished manufacturing census data for 2000 and 2005, we apply the methodology by Foster et al. (1998) to decompose productivity growth. The analysis shows that exporters were more productive than domestic‐oriented establishments, and were distinctly more competitive. The empirical evidence also shows that establishment turnover is important in boosting productivity growth. In particular, we find that turnover of exporters made a larger contribution to aggregate productivity growth compared with domestic‐oriented establishments during the period from 2000 to 2005. Surviving establishments (those that operated in both years), on the other hand, made a negative contribution. It is noteworthy that entrants to export markets were more productive than surviving non‐exporters and even surviving exporters. Exiters from export markets or ‘export failures’, on the other hand, were less productive than continuing exporters. Given the importance of turnover to productivity growth, the government should ensure unrestricted entry to the export sectors for both foreign and domestic investors. Continuing with pro‐FDI policies is also important, given the keener global competition.     

R&D Productivity and the Spillover Effects of High‐tech Industry on the Traditional Manufacturing Sector: The Case of Taiwan

This study sets out to estimate the impact of R&D on productivity within the private sector, with further analysis of the different impacts of R&D within high‐tech and traditional manufacturing firms. We also attempt to examine the spillover effects from R&D investment in the high‐tech sector on productivity growth within the traditional industries. Using a sample of 136 large manufacturing firms during the period 1994–2000, we develop an extended version of the Cobb‐Douglas production function model, and our findings suggest that Taiwan's R&D investment had a significant impact on firm productivity growth, with output elasticity standing at around 0.18. When the sample is divided into high‐tech and traditional firms, the R&D output elasticity in high‐tech firms is significantly greater than that found in traditional firms. In addition, the average rate of return in high‐tech firms is much greater than that estimated for other industries. Besides, our empirical results show that, although significant, the impact of R&D investment from the high‐tech sector, on the productivity growth of traditional firms, is rather limited.     

Environmental regulations and the export performance of South Korean manufacturing industries: A dynamic panel approach

This paper investigates the relationships among environmental regulation, export performance, and factor intensity, using panel data from South Korea's manufacturing sector (1991–2009). A panel vector autoregression (VAR) model in first differences tests the relationships among the variables, while considering the results of heterogeneous panel unit root and cointegration tests. Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimations help determine dynamic series relationships, and panel-causality tests are run based on the results of GMM estimations. There is evidence of a positive short-run linear causal relation running from environmental regulation to export performance, suggesting that environmental-protection expenditure may constitute a comparative advantage. The short-run linear causal relation from export performance to investment in activities related to environmental protection is insignificant.     

The Effect of the Chinese Economy on Mexican Maquiladora Employment

During the last five years the maquiladora industry of Mexico has seen a slowing of the rapid growth experienced during the 1990s. The maquiladora expansion has been linked to U.S. foreign direct investment. Additionally, China has become a major receptor of U.S. investment for the production and export of manufacturing goods. This study estimates the impact of the industrial activity of the United States and China on employment demand in the maquiladora industry of the northern border states of Mexico. Using data on industrial activity, real hourly wages, and the real exchange rate as a proxy of Mexican competitiveness, a bounds test cointegration analysis is developed. The results show that the variables affecting external demand have impacted the maquiladora employment trend negatively, while wage differentials and the exchange rate tend to encourage maquiladora activity.     

The effects of exports on facility environmental performance: Evidence from a matching approach

This paper employs matching techniques to investigate the effects of facility export status on environmental performance. Using facility-level criteria air emission data in the US manufacturing industry, we find the industry-specific effects of export status on emission intensity, measured by emissions per value of sale. In some industries, there is consistent and robust evidence supporting the superior environmental performance of exporters relative to non-exporters in terms of emission intensity for all criteria air pollutants tracked. In other industries, we find weak evidence that exporters appear to have a higher emission intensity than non-exporters. This industrial heterogeneity in the effects of exporting on the environment is closely related to industrial characteristics including pollution abatement capital expenditure, trade costs, capital intensity and others.     

A green Lewis development model

This paper develops an environmental extension of a Lewis dual economy model, in which the interaction between environmental quality and economic growth, in one of its several dimensions, is explicitly modeled to explore long-run effects of a pollution abatement rule in developing economies. The government requires the modern sector to dedicate a fraction of its output to pollution abatement, with such profitability-reducing fraction being endogenous to the level of environmental quality. Meanwhile, the level of environmental quality positively affects labor productivity, profits and, therefore, savings, which has a positive impact on capital accumulation. It is shown that this pollution abatement requirement, by affecting profitability in the modern sector both negatively and positively, makes for the emergence of an ecological development trap from which a developing dual economy, if left to the free play of its structural forces, never escapes. Fortunately, however, this economy can be released from such a trap not only through a standard Big Push, in the spirit of Rosenstein-Rodan, but also by means of what we call an Environmental Big Push.     

跨国反向服务外包模式对制造业生产率影响的比较研究

本文结合2002~2011年制造业16个行业的投入产出面板数据,深入比较研究跨国反向服务外包3种模式,即跨国反向信息技术外包、跨国反向业务流程外包和跨国反向知识流程外包对制造业生产率的影响。这3种模式对当前制造业生产率均为负向影响,且跨国反向信息技术外包对生产率负向影响最小,跨国反向知识流程外包对生产率负向影响最大;3种模式对未来生产率的负向影响程度均会减弱,且跨国反向信息技术外包减弱程度最大,跨国反向知识流程外包减弱程度最小;这3种模式中,跨国反向知识流程外包投入变化对生产率变化呈正向显著影响,其他两种模式投入变化对生产率变化呈负向不显著影响。     

Trade shocks,product mix adjustment and productivity growth in Italian manufacturing

In this paper, we use firm-level data on the universe of Italian manufacturing multi-product exporters to test whether demand shocks in export markets lead multi-product exporters to increase their productivity. The main mechanism behind the documented productivity gains is the reallocation of resources across products within firms (American Economic Review, 104, 2014 and 495; National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series No. 22433, 2016). Intuitively, the increased demand stemming from foreign markets will induce firms to adjust their product mix by moving inputs from low to high productive/profitable uses. We find that these productivity gains are significant and can explain between 1/10 and 1/2 of aggregate productivity growth in the manufacturing sector.     

美国制造业回流政策对我国出口贸易的影响

2008年金融危机爆发后,美国政府意识到实体经济的重要性,开始引导制造业回流,即鼓励美国的制造业企业将其投资和生产由国外向国内转移。在此情况下,美国制造业回流政策与我国正处于转型升级关键阶段的产业存在较强的竞争关系,本文具体分析美国制造业回流政策对我国出口贸易的影响机制,即通过挤占中低端制造业市场份额、限制高端制造业发展空间、改变中国出口贸易产品结构对我国出口贸易产生影响,并选取2003—2018年的相关数据进行检验并分析得出:无论短期内还是从长期来看,美国制造业回流政策对出口贸易产生了较大的负面影响,我国需要对此情况做出积极的应对。