An asset-pricing view of external adjustment

Recent literature has argued that conventional measures of external sustainability - the trade balance and current account - are misleading because they omit capital gains on net foreign asset positions. We adjust the definition of the current account to include the capital gains and discuss how this may affect our thinking about external adjustment and sustainability. We do so in the context of a two-country macro-finance model of Pavlova and Rigobon (2008a) that allows exploration of the interconnections between equilibrium portfolios and external accounts' dynamics. We calibrate the model and find that it generates several testable implications, some of which have already been validated empirically. First, we establish dynamic properties of the capital-gains adjusted current account and show that they are fundamentally different from those of the conventional current account. Second, we find that capital gains have a stabilizing effect on the trade balance and the current account. Finally, we demonstrate that in response to a shock, the conventional and the capital-gains adjusted current accounts may move in opposite directions.     

Financial integration, productivity and capital accumulation

Understanding the mechanism through which financial globalization affects economic performance is crucial for evaluating the costs and benefits of opening financial markets. This paper is a first attempt at disentangling the effects of financial integration on the two main determinants of economic performance: productivity (TFP) and investment. I provide empirical evidence from a sample of 70 countries observed between 1975 and 1999. The results for both de jure and de facto indicators suggest that financial integration has a positive direct effect on productivity, while it does not directly affect capital accumulation. I also control for indirect effects of financial globalization through financial development and banking and currency crises. While financial integration does not systematically increase domestic financial depth, it may raise the likelihood of banking crises, though only to a minor extent. Yet, the overall effect of financial liberalization remains positive for productivity and negligible for investment.     

Optimal bank asset and liability management with financial futures

This paper presents a model for optimal bank asset and liability management with financial futures. This model is a multiperiod linear programming model based on Markowitz portfolio theory. Given the bank's initial position, its economic forecasts, and the constraints under which it operates, the model can help a bank's senior executives determine the current and expected future balance sheet composition and financial futures position which will minimize the bank's operating risks and which will meet the bank's expected profits goal with the minimum possible profits risk. By parametrically varying the expected profits goal, the model will generate the set of risk-return efficient decisions. Bankers need then examine only the set of efficient decisions to choose their optimal solution. A simplified example is used to illustrate the application of our model and to demonstrate that banks that use financial futures in asset and liability management can obtain better results than banks that do not use financial futures.     

Working capital management,corporate performance,and financial constraints

This paper examines the linkage between working capital management and corporate performance for a sample of non-financial UK companies. In contrast to previous studies, the findings provide strong support for an inverted U-shaped relation between investment in working capital and firm performance, which implies the existence of an optimal level of investment in working capital that balances costs and benefits and maximizes a firm's value. The results suggest that managers should avoid negative effects on firm performance because of lost sales and lost discounts for early payments or additional financing expenses. The paper also analyzes whether the optimal working capital level is sensitive to alternative measures of financial constraints. The findings show that this optimum is lower for firms more likely to be financially constrained.     

职业声望、信贷约束与金融市场参与

本文使用中国家庭微观调查数据,研究职业声望通过缓解信贷约束的机制对居民家庭资产选择行为的影响。研究发现职业声望对金融市场参与的影响存在倒“U”形特征,并且这一结论不能被家庭经济特征、人口学特征和主观认知等因素存在差异所解释。进一步研究发现,在不存在融资约束的条件下,高声望职业更加倾向于参与商品房市场而非金融市场。本文认为高职业声望降低了家庭面临的信贷约束,增加了其对流动性小但收益率高的商品房资产的偏好。本文的研究从一个侧面反映出我国资本市场对于居民家庭的吸引力还有待提升。     

What drives capital flows? The case of cross-border M&A activity and financial deepening

What key roles do macroeconomic and financial variables play in the foreign direct investment (FDI) decision of firms? This question is addressed in this paper using a large panel data set of cross-border Merger & Acquisition (M&A) deals for the period 1990-1999. Various econometric specifications are built around the simple “gravity model” commonly used in the trade literature. Interestingly, financial variables and other institutional factors seem to play a significant role in M&A flows. In particular, the size of financial markets, as measured by the stock market capitalization to GDP ratio, has a strong positive association with domestic firms investing abroad. This result points to the importance of domestic financial conditions in stimulating international investment during the boom years of 1990s, and accords with the significant drop in cross-border M&As in recent years.     

Exchange rate regimes, globalisation, and the cost of capital in emerging markets

This paper presents a multifactor asset pricing model for currency, bond, and stock returns for ten emerging markets to investigate the effect of the exchange rate regime on the cost of capital and the integration of emerging financial markets. Our results suggest that a fixed exchange rate regime system can help reduce the cost of capital in emerging markets by reducing the currency risk premia demanded by foreign investors.     

Financial integration and the wealth effect of exchange rate fluctuations

Recent years have witnessed a large increase in international financial integration in the form of largely offsetting cross-holdings across countries. We assess how such financial leverage affects the international transmission of monetary shocks, and find that it leads to sizable welfare differentials that far exceed the impact due to nominal rigidities. We document the relevance of the exact nature of holdings, with bond holdings associated with larger effects than equity holdings. The impact of financial leverage on welfare is also sensitive to the extent of exchange rate pass-through and the substitutability between goods produced in different countries.     

Sovereign credit ratings,capital flows and financial sector development in emerging markets

How does the sovereign credit ratings history provided by independent ratings agencies affect domestic financial sector development and international capital inflows to emerging countries? We address this question utilizing a comprehensive dataset of sovereign credit ratings from Standard and Poor's from 1995–2003 for a cross-section of 51 emerging markets. Within a panel data estimation framework, we examine financial sector development and the influence of sovereign credit ratings provision, controlling for various economic and corporate governance factors identified in the financial development literature. We find strong evidence that our sovereign credit rating measures do affect financial intermediary sector developments and capital flows. We find that i) long-term foreign currency sovereign credit ratings are important for encouraging financial intermediary development and for attracting capital flows. ii) Long-term local currency ratings stimulate domestic market growth but discourage international capital flows. iii) Short-term ratings (both foreign and local currency denominated) retard all forms of financial developments and capital flows. There are important implications in this research for policy makers to encourage the provision of longer-term credit ratings to promote financial development in emerging economies.     

Risk-based capital, portfolio risk, and bank capital: A simultaneous equations approach

This paper examines the impact the risk-based capital standards had on bank capital and portfolio risk during the first year the risk-based standards were in effect. To date, insufficient attention has been focused on how the risk-based capital standards have impacted bank capital and risk. Building on previous research, this study used a three-stage least squares (3SLS) model to analyze the relationship between bank capital, portfolio risk, and the risk-based capital standards. The results suggest that the risk-based capital standards were effective in increasing capital ratios and reducing portfolio risk in commercial banks.     

Human and financial capital as determinants of biopharmaceutical IPO de-listings

The present study combines human capital theory with work on IPOs related to sources of financial capital of recent, publicly traded biopharmaceutical firms and relates this to the de-listing of these firms. The study follows the generally accepted view that more or better quality human capital is a positive factor in individual and firm performance to develop the hypotheses, positing a negative relationship between these factors and IPO de-listing. The results show that to a limited extent firms having CEOs with more or better human capital and strategic alliance partners are associated with biopharmaceutical IPOs’ de-listing. The study further finds that de-listing in this industry is due primarily to acquisitions (and not financial distress) and that the findings differ based upon whether examining financial distress or acquisition de-listings. The study draws upon the IPO motivation literature to help explain the results.     

Economic integration across Latin America: Evidence from labour markets, 1990–2013

Combining macroeconomic and microeconomic data and three indicators of international market integration, this paper assesses the degree to which Latin American labour markets are integrated. The results suggest that relative to East Asia, Latin American labour markets are somewhat more integrated, but considerable differences across countries persist. In addition, the evidence indicates that the degree of labour market integration across Latin American borders is significantly less than that of labour markets within the United States in two of the three indicators. These differences may suggest opportunities for efficiency gains from further labour market integration.     

Strategic currency hedging and global portfolio investments upside down

The literature on the convenience of currency hedging of international portfolio investments has not reached a final verdict. There are arguments for (Perold and Schulman [Perold, A.F. and Schulman, E.C. (1988). The free lunch in currency hedging: implications for investment policy and performance standards, Financial Analysts Journal, May/June Vol. 44, No. 3: 45-52]) and against (Froot [Froot, K. (1993). Currency hedging over long horizons. NBER Working Paper 4355.] and Campbell et al. [Campbell, J.Y., Viceira, L.M. and White, J.S. (2003). Foreign currency for long-term investors. The Economic Journal, Volume 113, Number 486, (March), pp. C1-C25(1)]). This paper analyzes the perspective of global investors based in emerging markets, for which hedging should imply increasing expected returns. The question thus is whether currency hedging is a “free lunch” in this case. No free lunch exists, as it turns out. Hard currencies act as natural hedges against global (and local) portfolio losses, since they tend to appreciate with respect to emerging market currencies when the world portfolio return is negative. Therefore, in this case currency hedging increases volatility—although also increasing expected returns. This result is likely to hold generally for relatively open economies with flexible exchange rate regimes.     

International capital flows and development: Financial openness matters

Does capital flow from rich to poor countries? We revisit the Lucas paradox to account for the role of capital account openness. We find that, when accounting for such openness, the prediction of the neoclassical theory is empirically confirmed: among financially open economies, less developed countries tend to experience net capital inflows and more developed countries tend to experience net capital outflows. The results hold also when taking into account private flows, institutions, and numerous controls. We also show that reserve intervention has an effect on the current account only in financially open economies.     

Institutional environment and firms' sources of financial capital in Central and Eastern Europe

The external business environment is a major determinant of which sources firms select to obtain financial capital. We examine how the regulatory, political, and financial dimensions of the institutional environment influence the extent to which firms rely on informal sources of financial capital. The analyses of data from 2869 firms in twenty-six transition economies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) indicate that ineffective regulatory system, underdeveloped financial system, and government corruption are strong determinants of firms' reliance on informal channels for financial capital. We also find that smaller firms are more vulnerable when the local financial system is underdeveloped and the regulatory institutions are less effective in these transition economies. A subgroup analysis of firms' forms of establishment shows that private firms are sensitive to the level of development of the local financial system and state-owned enterprises are particularly sensitive to the degree of corruption.     

International good market segmentation and financial innovation

While international capital flows are now well liberalized, markets for goods remain segmented. To investigate how financial innovation may relieve the effects of this segmentation on risk sharing, we examine a series of two-country economies with internationally segmented good markets, distinguished by the available financial securities. Sufficient conditions for efficiency include complete international financial markets together with liberalized international financial flows. Under these conditions, heterogeneous agents from the same country may use securities as a substitute for the international shipment of goods. This allows them to partially circumvent the segmentation, allowing for efficient risk sharing.     

Patience, persistence, and welfare costs of incomplete markets in open economies

We investigate the welfare implications of alternative financial market structures in a two-country endowment economy model. We obtain an analytic expression for the expected lifetime utility of the representative household when sovereign bonds are the only internationally traded asset, and we compare this welfare level with that obtained under complete asset markets. The welfare cost of incomplete markets is negligible if agents are very patient and shocks are not very persistent, but this cost is dramatically larger if agents are relatively impatient and shocks are highly persistent. For realistic cases in which agents are very patient and shocks are highly persistent, the welfare cost of incomplete markets is highly sensitive to the specific values of these parameters.     

金融发展、金融脆弱与银行国际化

银行国际化一方面会促进金融发展,另一方面也将导致金融脆弱.本文以理论分析和实证检验相结合的方式,探讨了我国银行国际化从不同方面促进金融发展以及导致金融脆弱之间的逻辑关系,并对两种不同效应从整体宏观的角度进行比较,得出银行国际化正效应大于负效应的结论,从而在理论上回答了政策当局是否应当推行银行国际化的问题.     

Credit card behavior,financial styles,and heuristics

The paper makes four contributions. First, the paper provides new data and findings about credit card usage segmentation in respect to spending and borrowing behavior. Second, it sets the new findings against the backdrop of the newly emerging literature on financial literacy. A great variability occurs in financial literacy across American consumers. Third, the paper describes fast and frugal heuristics aimed to help consumers make effective, and in some cases better, budgeting decisions when they use credit cards. Fourth, the paper describes the introduction of a new set of online financial tools, offered by a large credit card company, which consumers are now using to make decisions about their spending and borrowing, and links these tools to the heuristics under discussion. Fast and frugal heuristics are likely to be especially valuable to consumers with low confidence in their online skills. Notably, 25% of credit cardholders report that they have low confidence using online technology to manage their finances, with the corresponding figure being 44% for those most at risk.     

Absorptive capacity, innovation, and financial performance

This study here examines the role of absorptive capacity as both a mechanism to identify and translate external knowledge inflows into tangible benefits, as well as a means of achieving superior innovation and time-lagged financial performance. Using path analysis in a sample of 461 Greek enterprises participating in the third Community Innovation Survey, this study demonstrates that external knowledge inflows are directly related to absorptive capacity and indirectly related to innovation. Absorptive capacity contributes, directly and indirectly, to innovation and financial performance but in different time spans. This study, therefore, contributes to the understanding of absorptive capacity's antecedents and outcomes by providing empirical evidence of longitudinal form that offers important research and practical implications.