FDI,openness and income

This is an empirical study of the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on income. It presents cross-country evidence that inward FDI is positively correlated with income. In addition, an instrument for FDI is constructed to address the issue of endogeneity. The results show that instrumental-variables (IV) estimates of the impact of FDI on income are positive and greater than OLS estimates, similar to the findings on trade in Frankel and Romer (). The evidence in this paper suggests that inward FDI contributes to higher income, and favours the argument of Irwin and Terviö () that trade openness is subject to measurement error – in particular, trade is an imperfect proxy for many income-enhancing interactions between countries.     

International trade and child labor: Cross-country evidence

We explore the relationship between exposure to trade (as measured by openness) and child labor in a cross-country setting. Our methodology accounts for the fact that trade flows are endogenous to child labor (and labor standards more generally) by examining the relationship between child labor and variation in trade based on geography. We find that countries that trade more have less child labor. At the cross-country means, the data suggest an openness elasticity of child labor of − 0.7. For low-income countries, the elasticity of child labor with respect to trade with high-income countries is − 0.9. However, these relationships appear to be largely attributable to the positive association between trade and income. We consistently find a small and statistically insignificant association between openness and child labor when we control for cross-country income differences in the full sample, when we split the sample into different country groups, consider only trade between high- and low-income countries, or focus on exports of unskilled-labor intensive products from low-income countries. Thus, the cross-country data do not substantiate assertions that trade per se plays a significant role in perpetuating the high levels of child labor that pervade low-income countries.     

Impact of Openness on Growth in Different Country Groups

This paper evaluates the impact of openness on growth in different country groups using a panel of 79 countries over the period 1970–98. It distinguishes itself from many existing studies in three aspects: Firstly, both trade and FDI are included as measures of openness. Secondly, countries are classified into high‐, middle‐ and low‐income groups to compare the roles of trade and FDI in these groups. Thirdly, the possible problems of endogeneity and multicollinearity of trade and FDI are carefully dealt with in a panel data setting. The main findings are as follows. Total trade has a general positive impact on growth in all country groups, although the impact from imports is not significant in high‐income countries. FDI has a positive impact on growth in high‐ and middle‐income countries, but not in low‐income countries. With the existing absorptive capabilities, low‐income countries can benefit from both exports and imports, but not from FDI. These findings suggest that trade and FDI affect growth through different channels and under different conditions. The paper also discusses important policy implications.     

Trade openness,income levels,and economic growth: The case of developing countries, 1970–2009

This paper attempts to investigate the extent to which trade openness has had an impact on the levels of income and rates of growth in a sample of 115 developing countries for the period 1970–2009. Additionally, to assess whether there is an income level threshold for a country to benefit from international trade, the sample is broken down into three mutually exclusive groups of countries: low-income, lower middle-income, and upper middle-income countries. The main novelty of the paper lies on the use, on the one hand, of a new and better trade openness measure and, on the other hand, of non-stationary heterogeneous panel cointegration techniques to cope with the problem of cross-sectional dependence. The results show a positive bi-directional relationship between trade openness and income level in the long run, thus suggesting that trade openness is both a cause and a consequence of the level of income. The results for the short run, that is, the link between openness growth and economic growth, go in the same direction.     

Trade Openness and Income: A Tale of Two Regions

In this paper, we present evidence of the long‐run effect of trade openness on income per worker for two regions that have followed different liberalisation strategies, namely Asia and Latin America. A model that re‐examines these questions is estimated for two panels of Asian and Latin American countries over the 1980–2008 period using a novel empirical approach that accounts for endogeneity as well as for the time series properties of the variables involved. From an econometric point of view, we apply recent panel co‐integration techniques based on factor models that account for two additional elements usually neglected in previous empirical literature: cross‐dependence and structural breaks. The results point to a positive impact of trade openness in both Asia and Latin America although the size is smaller in the second region. We associate this finding with the degree to which trade was managed in both regions of the developing world.     

International trade and unemployment: Theory and cross-national evidence

We present a model of trade and search-induced unemployment, where trade results from Heckscher-Ohlin (H-O) and/or Ricardian comparative advantage. Using cross-country data on trade policy, unemployment, and various controls, and controlling for endogeneity and measurement-error problems, we find fairly strong and robust evidence for the Ricardian prediction that unemployment and trade openness are negatively related. This effect dominates the positive H-O effect of trade openness on unemployment for capital-abundant countries, which turns negative for labor-abundant countries. Using panel data, we find an unemployment-increasing short-run impact of trade liberalization, followed by an unemployment-reducing effect leading to the new steady state.     

服务贸易开放度与碳排放 ——基于1995~2009年跨国面板数据的实证分析

在世界服务贸易取得迅猛发展的同时,全球面临的环境问题也日益突出。基于1995~2009年的国际面板数据,本文构建计量模型对服务贸易开放度与碳排放的关系进行了实证分析。实证检验发现,在全样本区间内,服务贸易开放度与二氧化碳排放呈倒U型关系;依收入水平分组的实证检验发现,高收入国家服务贸易开放度的提高可以显著减少二氧化碳的排放,中低收入国家则不显著,而中高收入国家服务贸易开放度与碳排放呈倒U型关系。     

Export and imperfect hedging

Abstract

This paper considers the effects of trade liberalization on child labor that arises out of subsistence needs. It argues that favorable income effects are most likely to reduce the need for child labor in the South, even when export goods have a necessity character. However, in very poor economies, aggregate hours of child labor can also increase as a result of more open trade. Although the poorest families are the ones who benefit the most from trade in a Heckscher – Ohlin setting, their income gains might not be high enough to make them withdraw their children from work, while adverse income effects can raise the incidence of child labor among the less poor. The paper provides empirical support for the argument by finding that in a country panel, increases in trade openness are associated with significantly smaller reductions in child labor among the poorest food exporters than among food exporters on average.     

Trade openness and the environmental Kuznets curve: Evidence from Chinese cities

This paper examines the impact of economic growth and trade openness on environment in 261 Chinese cities over the period of 2004–2013, using recently developed continuously updated fully modified method which allows for both cross-sectional dependence and endogeneity. Two types of pollutants, industrial waste water and sulphur dioxide are investigated, and three measures of openness are employed in the regression. From the results, we find that the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis holds not only for the whole China, but also in different regions. It is estimated that wastewater pollution increases with economic development until per capita GDP reaching the turning point of 42,991–48,828 yuan (in constant 2002 price), which varies depending on the specific measure of trade openness. The turning point for sulphur dioxide is found to occur at a much lower income level around 9,588–10,663 yuan per capita GDP. Furthermore, export is mostly found to be positively related with pollution and the impact of import is likely to be negative for both the whole China and across regions, if the significance is identified in the estimation results.     

贸易开放提高了二氧化碳排放吗?——来自中国的证据

采用中国 1990—2010 年的省级面板数据,选取排放总量和碳强度作为二氧化碳排放指标,实证考察贸易开放对中国碳排放的影响,研究发现: ( 1) 贸易开放显著提高了碳排放,"向底线赛跑"假说揭示的环境负面效应强于贸易的环境收益效应。(2) 环境库兹涅茨曲线假说在中国成立,人均收入是影响碳排放的关键因素。( 3) 贸易开放的环境效应存在时空上的结构性差异,随着时间的推移,贸易开放对环境的负面效应有所减弱; 相对于内陆地区,贸易开放对沿海地区环境的负面效应要小。在分析实证结果背后原因的基础上,得出了相应的政策启示。     

The Gravity Model Analysis of Bangladesh's Trade: A Panel Data Approach

The article applies generalized gravity models to analyze Bangladesh's bilateral trade pattern using the panel data estimation technique. The results reveal that Bangladesh's trade is positively determined by the size of the economies, per capita gross domestic product differential and openness of the trading countries. Bangladesh's exports are positively determined by its income, partner countries' total import demand and openness, but negatively determined by partner countries' income and domestic inflation. Bangladesh's imports are positively determined by income of trading countries and degree of openness of the partner countries and negatively determined by partner countries' inflation. Transportation costs affect Bangladesh's trade negatively.     

Trade and migration flows between some CEE countries and the UK

The recent enlargement of the European Union (EU) has enhanced interest in the causes and also the consequences of migration between Central and Eastern European (CEE) and Western European countries. This paper considers the possibility that some of these consequences make themselves felt in the trade flows between migrants' countries of origin and destination. Using a panel of data covering a number of CEE countries between 1996 and 2003, we employ an augmented gravity model to examine the effects of immigration from these transition countries on their bilateral trade flows with the UK. We pay attention to a number of issues that have been raised within the literature on gravity models. We find evidence that migration positively enhances the bilateral exports of the migrants' home country; however, there is less (but some) evidence that the imports from their destination country are also enhanced.     

Tourism Promotion,Increasing Returns and Domestic Welfare

This paper compares the effect of tourism promotion funded by commodity tax and income tax on domestic welfare in an open economy with increasing returns in the tourism and the non‐tourism sector. A promotion may overcome the under‐production of tourism goods through taking account of the implications of increasing returns, but at the same time, the taxation may have an adverse impact on the rest of the economy. Employing a general equilibrium analysis, we find that the cost of tourism promotion overcomes the benefit, reducing local residents' welfare. Furthermore, commodity tax on tourism consumption is relatively more efficient than income tax in a monopolistic competition, with less adverse impact on the variety of non‐tourism goods. We also clarify the condition for deteriorating ‘terms of trade’, which only happens when the country has a small allocation of factor endowments.     

Does Trade Openness Promote Multilateral Environmental Cooperation?

This article puts forward a number of arguments why trade openness might promote multilateral environmental cooperation. Most of these arguments are grounded in the substantive self‐interest of the trading country. It tests the proposition using a range of proxy variables for general trade openness as well as specific export interests. The article examines whether countries open to trade are more likely to have signed three recent multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs) and are more likely to have ratified early on another three agreements with quasi‐universal membership. After controlling for income, political freedom and population size, the empirical estimations find some weak evidence in favour of a possible synergy between trade openness and multilateral environmental cooperation. World Trade Organisation membership as well as general export openness go hand in hand with greater willingness to participate in multilateral environmental cooperation in some cases. However, whether specific trade interests promote or hinder multilateral environmental cooperation depends on whether the relevant agreement is likely to threaten or accommodate the interests of exporting countries.     

An Explanation of the International Variation in the Prevalence of Child Labour

It is hypothesized that the institutional acceptability of child labor will be more prevalent when the other members of a society gain from its use. Therefore, the cross‐country variation in the prevalence of child labor depends on the degree to which child labor affects the welfare of the remaining members of a society. It is demonstrated theoretically that the non‐child‐labor factors gain from child labor when the economy is closed. As an economy becomes more open to international trade, those gains diminish and even turn negative as the size of the economy increases. Child labor will not exist in capital abundant countries since, in them, child labor makes the non‐child‐labor factors worse off. It is shown empirically that the cross‐country prevalence of child labor falls with increases in a nation's per capita income, its openness to trade, and its economic size. It is argued that trade sanctions, as a remedy for child labor, may be counter‐productive since an open economy reduces the benefits of child labor to the other members of a society, and thereby reduces the society's incentive to allow child labor. The model also demonstrates that the economic changes brought on by democracy undermine the practice of child labor.     

The dynamics of trade and competition

We estimate a version of the Melitz and Ottaviano [Melitz, Marc J. and Ottaviano, Gianmarco I.P., 2008, Market size, trade, and productivity, Review of Economic Studies 75(1), pp. 295-316.] model of international trade with firm heterogeneity. The model is constructed to yield testable implications for the dynamics of prices, productivity and markups as functions of openness to trade at a sectoral level. The theory lends itself naturally to a difference in differences estimation, with international differences in trade openness at the sector level reflecting international differences in the competitive structure of markets. Predictions are derived for the effects of both domestic and foreign openness on each economy. Using disaggregated data for EU manufacturing over the period 1989-1999 we find short run evidence that trade openness exerts a competitive effect, with prices and markups falling and productivity rising. The response of profit margins to openness has implications on the conduct of monetary policy. Consistent with the predictions of some recent theoretical models we find some, albeit weaker, support that the long run effects are more ambiguous and may even be anti-competitive. Domestic trade liberalization also appears to induce pro-competitive effects on overseas markets.     

The Extensive and Intensive Margins of Exports: The Role of Innovation

An important prediction of trade theories is that innovation can improve a country’s export performance. Using data on patents granted by the US as a proxy for innovation and data on manufacturing exports from 105 countries over the period 1975–2001, I investigate the extent to which innovation increases the number of products traded (the extensive margin) and the export value of each product (the intensive margin). The empirical results show that (i) innovation has a positive and significant effect on both the extensive and intensive margins. The intensive margin contributes 70 per cent of the effect, and the extensive margin accounts for 30 per cent. (ii) The effect of innovation on exports is stronger for low‐income countries than for high‐income countries. (iii) More innovative countries export greater quantities and charge higher prices, suggesting that innovation increases the product quality of exports.     

Income Inequalities and International Trade in Goods and Services: Short- and Long-Run Evidence

In this article, we study the short- and long-run effects of trade openness in services on wage inequalities. The sample covers ten Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries from 1980 to 2005. We find a differentiated impact of trade in goods compared to trade in services: while trade in goods has a short- and a long-run impact on inequalities, trade in services has only long-run effects. Moreover, we also find that international trade in services has a stronger impact on inequalities than international trade in goods, and this effect does not concern only inequalities between top incomes and low incomes but also between top incomes and median incomes.     

How Can Globalization Affect Income Distribution? Evidence from Developing Countries

ABSTRACT

The standard Hecksher-Ohlin-Samuelson framework claimed that foreign trade benefits developing countries, but many empirical studies suggest otherwise. After analyzing data on income deciles from the World Income Distribution Database for 66 developing countries, we found that trade openness benefits underprivileged people in affluent countries but not in developing countries. Also, external financial flows and democracy in conjunction do not exert significant effects, suggesting that these variables might affect income distribution through different channels. Finally, we reinforce the Kuznets inverted-U hypothesis; namely, the presence of an economic development threshold beyond which low-income deciles would increase.     

Technology Trade in Economic Development

Recent evidence on the respective contributions of institutions and trade to income levels across countries has demonstrated that – once endogeneity is considered – institutional quality clearly dominates the effect of trade. We argue that overall trade is not the most appropriate measure for technology diffusion as a source of productivity growth and propose to focus on imports of research and development (R&D)‐intensive goods instead. Overall, we confirm previous findings that institutions matter most and that overall trade is not positively associated with per‐capita income levels. Yet this does not hold for technology trade, as there is a positive and significant linkage between technology imports and income levels. This outcome is robust to various model specifications, including an instrumental variables approach.