Real earnings management and the cost of new corporate bonds

We examine the association between real earnings management and the cost of new bond issues of U.S. corporations. We consider three types of real earnings management: sales manipulation, overproduction, and the abnormal reduction of discretionary expenditures. We find that overproduction impairs credit ratings and that sales manipulation and overproduction are associated with higher bond yield spreads. Overall, our results imply that credit rating agencies and bondholders perceive real earnings management as a credit risk-increasing factor and thus require high risk premiums.     

The anatomy of financial crises: Evidence from the emerging ADR market

We study the anatomy of recent financial crises in Mexico, East Asia, Russia, Brazil, Turkey, and Argentina by investigating the efficiency and pricing of the emerging American depositary receipt (ADR) market. We use a non-parametric technique to test for persistent regime shifts in two basic structural relationships for ADR returns in 20 emerging countries — identified via arbitrage and capital mobility considerations — that should always hold in efficient and integrated capital markets. We find that those “normal” market conditions were instead often violated in proximity of financial crises: The law of one price often weakened (by 54% on average) and domestic sources of risk became more important (often by more than 100%) for many emerging ADRs. We also find the likelihood of these regime shifts to be related to proxies for uncertainty among investors, exchange rate volatility, trade linkages, and liquidity (but not stock market trends, currency devaluations, capital flight, or capital controls).     

CEO incentives and bank risk

We investigate the relationship between CEO compensation and bank default risk predictors to determine if short-term incentives can explain recent excesses in bank risk. We investigate early warning off-site surveillance parameters and expected default frequency (EDF) as well as crisis-related risky bank activities. We find only modest evidence that CEO compensation structures promote significant firm-specific heterogeneity in bank risk measures or risky activities. Compensation elements commonly thought to be the riskiest components, unvested options and bonuses, are either insignificant or negatively correlated with common risk variables, and only positively significant in predicting the level of trading assets and securitization income.     

Corporate Social Responsibility, Investor Protection, and Earnings Management: Some International Evidence

To many, recent allegations of accounting fraud (or earnings management; EM) at Enron, coupled with similar ones at many other corporations, are a strong indication of a serious decay in business ethics. In academics, this raises the concern between EM and corporate social responsibility (CSR). Since it has neither been documented, nor globally tested whether CSR mitigates or increases the extent of EM, three kinds of EM are studied: earnings smoothing, earnings aggressiveness, and earnings losses and decreases avoidance. The extents to which financial characteristics and institutional variables have an impact on the extent to which companies conduct EM are also tested. Our study investigates whether the CSR-related features of 1,653 corporations in 46 countries had a positive or negative effect on the quality of their publicly released financial information during the 1993–2002 period. There is no question that with a greater commitment to CSR, the extent of earnings smoothing is mitigated, that of earnings losses and decreases avoidance is reduced, but the extent of earnings aggressiveness is increased. Feng-Ching Kang is a graduate student for Ph. D degree of the Department of Social Welfare at National Chung Cheng University, Taiwan. Her research focuses on nonprofit governance, social economy, cooperative economics, organization theory and business ethics. She received a MBA from the Department of Cooperative Economics, College of Business National Taipei University, Taiwan     

Renegotiation, collective action clauses and sovereign debt markets

Collective action clauses (CACs) are provisions specifying that a supermajority of bondholders can change the terms of a bond. We study how CACs determine governments' fiscal incentives, sovereign bond prices, and default probabilities in environments with and without contingent debt and IMF presence. We claim that CACs are likely to be an irrelevant dimension of debt contracts in current sovereign debt markets because of the variety of instruments utilized by sovereigns and the implicit IMF guarantee. Nonetheless, under a new international bankruptcy regime like that recently proposed by the IMF, CACs can increase significantly the cost of borrowing for sovereigns, contrary to what is suggested in previous empirical literature.     

A new world order: explaining the international diffusion of the gold standard, 1870-1913

The gold standard gradually became an international monetary regime after 1870. Similarly, some nations in the European Union are waiting to adopt the euro while others have joined immediately. What explains the timing of exchange rate regime adoption? To find out, the international diffusion of the gold standard is analyzed. Duration analysis shows that network externalities operating through trade channels, the desire to decrease borrowing costs on international capital markets, and the level of development matter. Some evidence shows that the level of exchange rate volatility or inflationist agricultural interests did not matter for the timing of adoption.     

Detecting shift-contagion in currency and bond markets

This paper investigates why financial market crises often increase the interdependence between assets associated with different countries. Two sources of increased co-movement in asset returns are considered: (i) larger common shocks operating through standard cross-country linkages and (ii) changes in the structural transmission of shocks across countries, referred to as “shift-contagion”. To examine this issue, we develop a method for detecting shift-contagion with three notable features. First, parameters corresponding to the structural transmission of shocks across countries are identified in the presence of changing volatility regimes for the shocks. Second, the timing of changes in volatility is endogenously estimated instead of being exogenously assigned. Third, the countries in which crises originate need not be known or even included in the analysis. We apply the method to currency returns for developed countries and bond returns for emerging-market countries.     

Business cycles and monetary regimes in emerging economies: A role for a monopolistic banking sector

This study shows that the presence of imperfect competition in the banking system propagates external shocks and amplifies the business cycle. Strategic limit pricing, aimed at protecting retail niches from potential competitors, generates countercyclical bank markups. Markup increments during recessions directly increase borrowing costs for firms and indirectly damage the financial position of firms' balance-sheets, increasing the risk perception of lenders. I use Bayesian techniques and data from Argentina to show that the inclusion of monopolistic banking improves the fit of the New Keynesian small open economy model.     

Patterns of international capital raisings

This paper documents several new patterns associated with firms issuing stocks and bonds in foreign markets that motivate the need for and help guide the direction of future research. Three major patterns stand out. (1) A large and growing fraction of capital raisings, especially debt issuances, occurs in international markets, but a very small number of firms accounts for the bulk of international capital raisings, highlighting the cross-firm heterogeneity in financial globalization. (2) Changes in firm performance following equity and debt issuances in international markets are qualitatively similar to those following domestic issuances, suggesting that capital raisings abroad are not intrinsically different from those in domestic markets. (3) Firms continue to issue securities both abroad and at home after accessing international markets, suggesting that international and domestic markets are complements, not substitutes. Existing theories do not fully account for these patterns.     

An information approach to international currencies

Models of currency competition focus on the 5% of trading attributable to balance-of-payments flows. We introduce an information approach that focuses on the other 95%. Important departures from traditional models arise when transactions convey information. First, prices reveal different information depending on whether trades are direct or though vehicle currencies. Second, missing markets arise due to insufficiently symmetric information, rather than insufficient transactions scale. Third, the indeterminacy of equilibrium that arises in traditional models is resolved: currency trade patterns no longer concentrate arbitrarily on market size. Empirically, we provide a first analysis of transactions across a full market triangle: the euro, yen and US dollar. The estimated transaction effects on prices support the information approach.     

Family firms and debt: Risk aversion versus risk of losing control

This study examines the effect of family management, ownership, and control on capital structure for 523 Colombian firms between 1996 and 2006. The study finds that debt levels tend to be lower for younger firms when the founder or one of his heirs acts as manager, but trends higher as the firm ages. When family involvement derives from direct and indirect ownership, the family–debt relationship is positive, consistent with the idea that external supervision accompanies higher debt levels and reduces the risk of losing control. When families are present on the board of directors (but are not in management), debt levels tend to be lower, suggesting that family directors are more risk-averse. The results stress the tradeoff between two distinct motivations that determine the capital structure of family firms: risk aversion pushes firms toward lower debt levels, but the need to finance growth without losing control makes family firms to prefer higher debt levels.     

Cross-border venture capital investments in Asia: Selection and exit performance

We investigate the investment behavior and exit performance of VCs that have pursued expansion outside their home locations, specifically, in Asia. Our findings indicate that, in the Asian VC markets, foreign VCs have relative advantages over local VCs in terms of size and experience while they are at a disadvantage in information collection and monitoring due to both geographic and cultural distances. When investing alone, foreign VCs are more likely to invest in more information-transparent ventures. Partnership with local VCs helps alleviate information asymmetry and monitoring problem and has positive implication for the exit performance of local entrepreneurial firms. Specifically, we find that after controlling for the endogeneity of selection, firms with both foreign and local VC partnership are about 5% more likely to successfully exit.     

Leverage and growth: Effect of stock options

Previous literature documents a negative relationship between leverage and firm growth. This paper finds that once the incentives provided by stock options are accounted for, leverage does not affect firm growth. The paper also finds that the sensitivity of CEOs’ wealth to stock price (i.e. option delta) instead of leverage has a negative relationship with growth. These findings suggest that incentive contracts that tie managers’ wealth to firm value prevent managers from overinvesting. Thus in presence of options the role of debt as a disciplining mechanism has become less important.     

Financial integration and currency risk premium in CEECs: Evidence from the ICAPM

This paper aims to study the Central and Eastern European Countries' (CEECs) dynamics of financial integration in the euro area with the prospect of their integration into the European Monetary Union. Our empirical analysis is based, successively, on a MGARCH model with time-varying correlations, a state-space model and a Markov-switching model. The results show that financial integration (i) is not perfect but is increasing and (ii) is linked to currency stability. The growing financial integration in 2007–2009 seems to be rather the result of the shock propagated by the global crisis.     

Political cycles under external economic constraints: Evidence from Cyprus

This paper examines the presence of political cycles in a small open economy using data from Cyprus over the period 1978–2006, and explores their conditionality upon external economic constraints, such as globalization and European integration. Two basic results emerge. First, we find evidence of partisan shifts in economic policies and outcomes, although these effects seem to decrease as globalization progresses, and to disappear in the run-up to EMU. This implies that, while partisan cycles can emerge under a certain domestic political setting, the sensitivity of an economy to globalization pressures and the challenges resulting from EU/EMU membership can lead to their weakening. Second, we find evidence of electoral shifts in certain, more visible, subcomponents of the fiscal balance. However, in contrast to partisan distinctions, these opportunistic effects become more pronounced as globalization proceeds. It seems that constraints imposed on the ability of politicians to ingratiate themselves with partisans, may actually strengthen their incentives to engage in electioneering.     

Crowdfunding: Tapping the right crowd

With crowdfunding, an entrepreneur raises external financing from a large audience (the “crowd”), in which each individual provides a very small amount, instead of soliciting a small group of sophisticated investors. This article compares two forms of crowdfunding: entrepreneurs solicit individuals either to pre-order the product or to advance a fixed amount of money in exchange for a share of future profits (or equity). In either case, we assume that “crowdfunders” enjoy “community benefits” that increase their utility. Using a unified model, we show that the entrepreneur prefers pre-ordering if the initial capital requirement is relatively small compared with market size and prefers profit sharing otherwise. Our conclusions have implications for managerial decisions in the early development stage of firms, when the entrepreneur needs to build a community of individuals with whom he or she must interact. We also offer extensions on the impact of quality uncertainty and information asymmetry.     

Outside directors, board interlocks and firm performance: Empirical evidence from Colombian business groups

We investigate the relation of board structure through the appointments of outside directors and the role of busy directors on firm return on assets within an environment of no regulation for privately held firms and voluntary adoption of corporate best practices for security issuers with family controlling blockholders. This study relies on a sample of an average of 335 firms per year for the 1996-2006 period, where 244 are private firms and 285 are affiliated to one of the seven largest non-financial business groups in the country. Five of these groups were, in 2006, still family-controlled. We find a positive relation between both the ratio of outside directors, and the degree of board interlocks, with firm return-on-assets. Outside busy directors turned out to be key drivers of improved firm performance. Appointments of outsiders are endogenous to firm ownership structure. Blockholder activism as well as contestability becomes an internal mechanism that improves director monitoring and ex-post firm valuation.     

Pricing corporate bonds in Brazil: 2000 to 2004

This paper analyzes the factors that influence the issuing price of debentures in Brazil in the period from year 2000 to 2004, applying a factor model, in which exogenous variables explain return and price behavior. The variables in this study include: rating, choice of index, maturity, country risk, basic interest rate, long-term and short-term rate spread, the stock market index, and the foreign exchange rate. Results indicate that the index variable, probability of default and bond's maturity influence pricing and points out associations of long-term bonds with better rating issues.     

On the Chinese B-share price discount puzzle: Some new evidence

Since February 2001, the Chinese Securities Regulatory Commission allowed domestic trade in foreign-currency denominated shares (B-shares) whose trade was originally restricted to foreign investors. We investigate possible effects of lifting the ownership restriction on the B-share discounts and explore why the discount persists even after removing the restriction. The discount is the percentage by which the B-shares are priced less than the otherwise identical Chinese-currency denominated shares held by domestic investors (A-shares). The results suggest that prices in the B- and A-share markets are closely linked over the long-run and that this equilibrium relationship strengthened in the post-lifting period. Our results further rule out information asymmetry as a reason for the continuation of the discount and support instead the importance of firm size and relative supply of the B-shares.