国际贸易发展的新趋势及我国对策

中国加入WTO后,国际贸易量的飞速发展与中国当前的环境产生了不相适应的现象。如何结合中国实际,研究好国际贸易这一大课题,对于加强国家经济安全,保证国家经济不受损失是至关重要的。认真地分析当前的中国国情,对比国际经济实际状况,找出中国经济走向国际大舞台的通途是我们的客观使命。知识的积累、经验的沉淀、方式的改变等等都要求我们付出一定的努力,才能适应国际舞台,立足于不败之地。     

Market responsiveness, top management risk taking, and the role of strategic learning as determinants of market pioneering

This study investigates managerial and organizational factors associated with engaging in a market pioneering strategy. Specifically, top management risk taking and the firm-level capability of market responsiveness are hypothesized to be associated with market pioneering. Additionally, strategic learning self efficacy is hypothesized to moderate the effects of top management risk taking and market responsiveness on market pioneering. Moderated regression analysis based on data collected from 111 manufacturing firms supports the hypotheses. Top management risk taking and market responsiveness positively predict the use of a pioneering strategy. Strategic learning self efficacy makes market pioneering more palatable to risk-averse top managers who might not otherwise engage in pioneering. Finally, strategic learning self efficacy strengthens the relationship between market responsiveness and market pioneering. Implications for future theory, practice, and research are discussed.     

Preference heterogeneity, wage inequality, and trade

We consider individuals who value product variety, and who can be skilled or unskilled as workers. Skilled people prefer to consume skill-intensive goods. We show that under plausible conditions an increase in the relative size of the skilled population increases the relative wage of skilled workers, thereby increasing wage inequality. In our two-country model of trade, an increase in the relative supply of skilled labor in either country increases the relative wage of skilled workers, and hence increases inequality in both countries.     

国际贸易环境下我国对外贸易政策的发展方向

近十几年来,全球贸易量取得了惊人的跨越式增长,而自由贸易与环境的关系问题也日趋尖锐。一方面,许多发达国家利用不对等的贸易和投资手段从发展中国家攫取大量战略性资源,却造成这些国家境内生态环境的严重失调;另一方面,一味地追求贸易扩张、资金积累和工业化又实际加剧了全球环境的恶化。环境效应对贸易的挤压性制约日益上升为国际贸易发展的焦点。在此背景下,引入环境变量,促进贸易策略的可持续性便成为实现我国对外贸易科学发展的必然之路。     

Do free trade agreements actually increase members' international trade?

For over 40 years, the gravity equation has been a workhorse for cross-country empirical analyses of international trade flows and — in particular — the effects of free trade agreements (FTAs) on trade flows. However, the gravity equation is subject to the same econometric critique as earlier cross-industry studies of U.S. tariff and nontariff barriers and U.S. multilateral imports: trade policy is not an exogenous variable. We address econometrically the endogeneity of FTAs. Although instrumental-variable and control-function approaches do not adjust for endogeneity well, a panel approach does. Accounting econometrically for the FTA variable's endogeneity yields striking empirical results: the effect of FTAs on trade flows is quintupled. We find that, on average, an FTA approximately doubles two members' bilateral trade after 10 years.     

Credit constraints, equity market liberalizations and international trade

This paper provides evidence that credit constraints are an important determinant of international trade flows. I exploit shocks to the availability of external finance and examine the impact of equity market liberalizations on the export behavior of 91 countries in the 1980-1997 period. I show that liberalizations increase exports disproportionately more in financially vulnerable sectors that require more outside finance or employ fewer collateralizable assets. This result is not driven by cross-country differences in factor endowments and is independent of simultaneous trade policy reforms. Moreover, it obtains with equal strength in the full panel of countries as well as in both panel and event-study analyses of countries which removed capital controls during the sample period. Finally, the effects of liberalizations are more pronounced in economies with initially less active stock markets, indicating that foreign equity flows may substitute for an underdeveloped domestic financial system. Similarly, opening equity markets has a greater impact in the presence of higher trade costs caused by restrictive trade policies.     

我国对外贸易与国际物流关系的实证研究

为了更好地理解国际贸易与国际物流的关系,制定出合适的协同发展战略,本文选取国际贸易与国际物流之间的关系作为研究对象进行了实证分析。首先,结合指标的合理性和数据的可得性选取了分析变量;在此基础上利用时间序列数据,运用Granger因果检验的方法对国际贸易和国际物流之间的关系进行了研究,并得出结论:我国的国际贸易与物流存在着反馈性的因果关系;其中,物流对贸易的促进作用比贸易对物流的促进作用要稍大一些。     

International competition, downsizing and wage inequality

A country with Cournot competition and free entry experiences an increase of its market size either due to economic growth or international integration of its goods markets. This implied increase in competition leads to shrinking mark-ups and forces firms to reduce overhead costs relative to output. This implies a reallocation at the aggregate level from administrative to productive activities. Relative factor rewards change and wage inequality increases. The factor which loses in relative terms can even lose in real terms. From a quantitative perspective, international competition is demonstrated to be the more plausible cause of rising wage inequality.     

Economic determinants of free trade agreements

The purpose of this study is to provide the first systematic empirical analysis of the economic determinants of the formation of free trade agreements (FTAs) and of the likelihood of FTAs between pairs of countries using a qualitative choice model. We develop this econometric model based upon a general equilibrium model of world trade with two factors of production, two monopolistically-competitive product markets, and explicit intercontinental and intracontinental transportation costs among multiple countries on multiple continents. The empirical model correctly predicts, based solely upon economic characteristics, 85% of the 286 FTAs existing in 1996 among 1431 pairs of countries and 97% of the remaining 1145 pairs with no FTAs.     

The geography of trade in goods and asset holdings

Gravity models have been widely used to describe bilateral trade in goods. Portes and Rey [Portes, R., Rey, H., 2005. The Determinants of Cross-Border Equity Flows. Journal of International Economics, 65(2), 269-296.] applied this framework to cross-border equity flows and found that distance, which proxies information asymmetries, is a surprisingly very large barrier to cross-border asset trade. We adopt a different point of view and explore the complementarity between bilateral trade in goods and bilateral asset holdings in a simultaneous gravity equations framework. Providing different instruments for both endogenous variables, we show that a 10% increase in bilateral trade raises bilateral asset holdings by 6% to 7%. The reverse causality is also significant, albeit smaller. Controlling for trade, the impact of distance on asset holdings is drastically reduced.     

Growth gains from trade and education

A multi-sector general equilibrium model is presented where education enhances general human capital, which is essential for increasing or maintaining the mobility of workers across industries. The paper shows that international trade, combined with education, can have a positive growth effect by allowing workers to move easily to, and specialize in, the industry with the greatest productivity in each period, which enables an economy to grow in the long run at the growth rate of the industry with the most rapid technical progress. Depending on the initial ratio of general-to-specific human capital stock, multiple equilibrium growth paths can exist including a poverty trap, and trade liberalization can allow an economy in a poverty trap to transform into one with continuous education and higher output growth.     

GATT/WTO与管理贸易

现实中的国际贸易不是自由贸易，国际贸易体制中一直都是自由贸易和贸易保护同时并存，以1GATT／WTO也不是自由贸易组织。管理贸易是指介于纯粹自由贸易和完全贸易保护之间的各种情形，其特点是规则导向、有较大兼容性以及可塑性。管理贸易的发展可以有两个完全相反的方向，而GATT／WTO倡导的贸易自由化实质上是在自由贸易和贸易保护两种成分并存的国际贸易体制中抑制贸易保护、提高贸易自由的程度。     

On the conservation of distance in international trade

Using disaggregated bilateral trade data, we find that the elasticity of trade to distance increased (in absolute value) by about 10% since 1985. To explore the reasons for this shift, we decompose the change in the distance elasticity of trade into the part due to a shift in the composition of trade among industries and the part due to a change in the distance sensitivity within industries. We find that adjustment in the composition of trade had little effect, but for 40% of industries distance became more important, with nearly all of the remaining industries showing no significant change. We explore alternative hypotheses as to why the elasticity of trade to distance increased in some industries. We find that homogeneous goods, bulky goods, and high tariff goods became significantly more distance sensitive. In contrast, the evidence implies that changes in tariffs and freight costs have reduced the importance of distance on trade. We conclude that the increase in the importance of distance over time is related to the substitutability of goods and the level of trade costs, but not to changes in tariffs or freight costs.     

Economic integration agreements and the margins of international trade

One of the main policy sources of trade–cost changes is the formation of an economic integration agreement (EIA), which potentially affects an importing country's welfare. This paper: (i) provides the first evidence using gravity equations of both intensive and extensive (goods) margins being affected by EIAs employing a panel data set with a large number of country pairs, product categories, and EIAs from 1962 to 2000; (ii) provides the first evidence of the differential (partial) effects of various “types” of EIAs on these intensive and extensive margins of trade; and (iii) finds a novel differential “timing” of the two margins' (partial) effects with intensive-margin effects occurring sooner than extensive-margin effects, consistent with recent theoretical predictions. The results are robust to correcting for potential sample-selection, firm-heterogeneity, and reverse causality biases.     

Impact of international trade on unemployment under oligopoly

By studying a two-sector general equilibrium model in which firms engage in oligopolistic competition and unemployment is a result of the existence of efficiency wages, we derive the following results analytically. A country's comparative advantage in producing manufactured goods increases with the level of efficiencies in the labor market. The opening of international trade leads to the equalization of wage rates even though countries differ in their factor endowments and labor market efficiencies. If countries have the same level of labor market efficiencies but differ in their endowments of labor and land, the opening to international trade leads to an increase in the wage rate in both countries.     

Learning by doing, trade in capital goods and growth

This paper aims at reconciling theoretical models of endogenous growth with the empirical evidence on trade and growth. In particular, we show that the conventional wisdom according to which trade is growth-impairing for a country with comparative advantage in goods with limited opportunities for learning fails to hold when the imported good is a capital good. The intuition is that the country gains access to cheaper capital goods, which raises investment, output per worker and learning by doing.     

A higher-order model of risk propensity

This study extends the paradigm of risk propensity and empirically investigates a higher-order risk propensity model. Past marketing research on risk propensity offers conflicting conceptualization and theorization. Additionally, past research viewed risk propensity as a first-order construct. The present study extends consumers' risk propensity concept, proposing and empirically assessing a higher-order model with three first-order factors, namely, risk risk-taking attitude, perceived risk, and price consciousness. In this view, the three fist-order factors are shaped by the individual's inherent risk propensity.     

国际贸易融资中的问题及对策分析

本文根据笔者多年经验,分析了当前国际贸易融资中存在的问题的原因,并给出了我国国际贸易融资问题的对策建议.     

The impact of single windows on trade

This paper is the first that quantifies the impact of single windows (SWs) on international trade globally. SWs function as a single point of entry and exit of the goods traded internationally and are therefore intended to facilitate trade. Using a structural gravity model for a panel of 176 countries from 1995 to 2017, we apply a log–log and a Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood estimator (PPML) with multidimensional fixed effects to evaluate the extent to which export and import flows vary depending on whether or not countries have operational SWs. The main results from the linearised gravity model suggest that total trade between two countries with functioning SWs increases by about 37%, of which 23 corresponds to exports and 14 to imports. The result from the PPML estimation also indicates a positive and significant effect, which is however much smaller in magnitude.     

国际贸易乘数与国际金融乘数研究

本文首先在Krugman的国际金融乘数模型的基础上引入产品市场,建立了一个既包含国际贸易乘数效应又包含国际金融乘数效应的两国经济依存模型。在该模型中,各国的资产市场与产品市场通过财富效应和收入效应建立互动关系,两国的资产市场之间通过国际金融乘数效应建立互动关系,两国的产品市场之间通过国际贸易乘数效应建立互动关系。然后本文通过该模型分析了当本国资产市场上出现负向需求冲击时的后果。分析结果显示,本国资产市场上出现的负向需求冲击会直接导致本国资产价格下跌,而本国资产价格下跌一方面通过财富效应导致本国产出下降,另一方面通过国际金融乘数效应引发外国的资产价格下跌,本国产出下降又会通过国际贸易乘数效应导致外国产出下降。