Entry,trade costs,and international business cycles

Are firm entry and fixed exporting costs relevant for understanding the international transmission of business cycles? We revisit this question using a model that includes entry, selection to exporting activity, physical capital accumulation and endogenous labor supply. We determine that once the stochastic process for exogenous productivity is calibrated to consider the endogenous dynamics in TFP created by the number of firms and the time series volatility of entry is calibrated to the data, our model yields minimal departures from the Backus et al. (1992) benchmark. The richer model shares all of the successes of the previous model in terms of the volatilities of aggregate quantities, as well as its failures, in terms of replicating patterns of international co-movement and the volatility of international relative prices.     

Exchange rate fluctuations,firm size,and export behavior: an empirical investigation

In this paper, we examine how changes in the exchange rate and its volatility affect the export behavior of manufacturing firms. We also investigate whether both exchange rate changes and exchange rate volatility affect firms of different sizes differently. Applying the two-step system generalized method of moment estimator on our data for a sample of 221 Pakistani manufacturing firms, we find that the real exchange rate depreciation has positive impacts, whereas the exchange rate volatility has negative impacts on firms’ exports. We also find that compared to large-sized firms, small- and medium-sized exporting firms are more likely to benefit from currency depreciations. Yet, regarding the effect of exchange rate volatility, we find that the adverse impact of exchange rate volatility is weaker for large-sized firms as compared to small- and medium-sized firms. Our findings confirm the presence of nonlinearity in export-deterring (favoring) effects of exchange rate volatility (depreciation) on exporting behavior depending on firm size. Pakistan should design and implement export-favoring preferential policies by emphasizing on real exchange rate stabilization and providing incentives to large firms to come into being. Small- and medium-sized enterprises should develop such export strategies that help reduce their size disadvantages, particularly in managing exchange rate risks.     

CREDIT SPREADS, OPTIMAL CAPITAL STRUCTURE, AND IMPLIED VOLATILITY WITH ENDOGENOUS DEFAULT AND JUMP RISK

We propose a two-sided jump model for credit risk by extending the Leland–Toft endogenous default model based on the geometric Brownian motion. The model shows that jump risk and endogenous default can have significant impacts on credit spreads, optimal capital structure, and implied volatility of equity options: (1) Jumps and endogenous default can produce a variety of non-zero credit spreads, including upward, humped, and downward shapes; interesting enough, the model can even produce, consistent with empirical findings, upward credit spreads for speculative grade bonds. (2) The jump risk leads to much lower optimal debt/equity ratio; in fact, with jump risk, highly risky firms tend to have very little debt. (3) The two-sided jumps lead to a variety of shapes for the implied volatility of equity options, even for long maturity options; although in general credit spreads and implied volatility tend to move in the same direction under exogenous default models, this may not be true in presence of endogenous default and jumps. Pricing formulae of credit default swaps and equity default swaps are also given. In terms of mathematical contribution, we give a proof of a version of the "smooth fitting" principle under the jump model, justifying a conjecture first suggested by Leland and Toft under the Brownian model.     

Experience,age and exporting performance in UK SMEs

We consider the determinants of SME exporting performance using a survey of internationally engaged UK SMEs. We first develop a model incorporating organisational and prior managerial learning effects. Our empirical analysis then allows us to identify separately the positive effects on exporting from the international experience of the firm and the negative effects of firm age. Positive exporting effects also result from grafted knowledge – acquired by the recruitment of management with prior international experience. Innovation also has positive exporting effects with more radical new-to-the-industry innovation most strongly linked to inter-regional exports; new-to-the-firm innovation is more strongly linked to intra-regional trade. Early internationalisation is also linked positively to the number of countries to which firms export and the intensity of their export activity. We find no evidence, however, relating early internationalisation to extra-regional exporting, suggesting that early-exporting SMEs tend be ‘born regional’ rather than ‘born global’.     

A UNIFIED FRAMEWORK FOR PRICING CREDIT AND EQUITY DERIVATIVES

We propose a model which can be jointly calibrated to the corporate bond term structure and equity option volatility surface of the same company. Our purpose is to obtain explicit bond and equity option pricing formulas that can be calibrated to find a risk neutral model that matches a set of observed market prices. This risk neutral model can then be used to price more exotic, illiquid, or over‐the‐counter derivatives. We observe that our model matches the equity option implied volatility surface well since we properly account for the default risk in the implied volatility surface. We demonstrate the importance of accounting for the default risk and stochastic interest rate in equity option pricing by comparing our results to Fouque et al., which only accounts for stochastic volatility.     

Rigidity in SME export commencement decisions

In an increasingly globalised world, firms generally have become more internationalised utilising a range of different modes of operation. In the case of small-medium sized enterprises (SMEs), exporting is the favoured mode of international market entry, at least in the early stages of internationalisation, and many governments have supported SME exports through export promotion policies because of the importance of SMEs in employment creation. However, in spite of this policy focus, in most countries, the proportional involvement of SMEs in exporting remains low, which raises an important question as to what factors are inhibiting firms that are successful domestically from exporting. In addressing this question, much scholarly research has focused on the broad concept of ‘export barriers’. These barriers, for example, tariffs, quotas and administrative obstacles, are seen as a primary source of export reluctance. This paper takes a different approach to previous studies and proposes that a firm's resistance to exporting can be better understood through an analysis of the behavioural decision process of firms in line with the Uppsala internationalisation model. We propose ‘lateral rigidity’, first introduced in the literature in the 1970s, as an important concept in export commencement. By applying factor analysis to a survey of Australian SMEs, we provide a measurement model for lateral rigidity, revealing its important factors and thus strengthening understanding of firms' export commencement decisions. We conclude by drawing implications for internationalisation theory, practice and public policy and suggesting ways to extend this work through future research.     

PARTIAL HEDGING IN A STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY ENVIRONMENT

We consider the problem of partial hedging of derivative risk in a stochastic volatility environment. It is related to state-dependent utility maximization problems in classical economics. We derive the dual problem from the Legendre transform of the associated Bellman equation and interpret the optimal strategy as the perfect hedging strategy for a modified claim. Under the assumption that volatility is fast mean-reverting and using a singular perturbation analysis, we derive approximate value functions and strategies that are easy to implement and study. The analysis identifies the usual mean historical volatility and the harmonically averaged long-run volatility as important statistics for such optimization problems without further specification of a stochastic volatility model. The approximation can be improved by specifying a model and can be calibrated for the leverage effect from the implied volatility skew. We study the effectiveness of these strategies using simulated stock paths.     

Industry type,culture, mode of entry and perceptions of international marketing ethics problems: A cross-cultural comparison

The authors investigate the differences in ethical perceptions of Australian and Hong Kong international managers. Ethical perceptions are measured with respect to different industry types, cultures and modes of entry into international markets. Mode of entry refers to how firms select to enter foreign markets. Modes of entry include: exporting (indirect or direct), contractual methods (licensing and franchising) and via direct foreign investment (joint ventures and wholly-owned subsidiaries). It was determined that culture and mode of entry have a significant effect on the perception of ethical problems.Robert Armstrong is an Associate Professor of Marketing and Research Associate of the Asia Research Centre at Murdoch University. His prior experience includes: industrial management, marketing research and corporate planning. His research and consulting interests are centred in the areas of international marketing ethics and services marketing.Jill Sweeney is a Senior Tutor at Murdoch University and is currently working on a doctorate. Jill's chief research interests are in the areas of services marketing and marketing ethics.     

Exporting and productivity in business services: Evidence from the United States

Does exporting make firms more productive, or do more productive firms choose to become exporters? This paper considers the link between exporting and productivity for a sample of firms in US business services. We find that larger, more productive firms are more likely to become exporters, but that these factors do not necessarily influence the extent of exporting. This conforms with previous literature that there is a self-selection effect into exporting. We then test for the effect of exporting on productivity levels after allowing for this selection effect. We model both the relationship between exporting and productivity, and a simultaneous relationship between export intensity and productivity after allowing for selection bias. In both cases we find an association, indicating that productivity is positively linked both to exporting and to increased exposure to international markets.     

International capital flows,returns and world financial integration

International capital flows have increased dramatically since the 1980s, with much of the increase being due to trade in equity and bond markets. Such developments are often attributed to the increased integration of world financial markets. We present a model that allows us to examine how greater integration in world financial markets affects the behavior of international capital flows and financial returns. Our model predicts that international capital flows are large (in absolute value) and very volatile during the early stages of financial integration when international asset trading is concentrated in bonds. As integration progresses and households gain access to world equity markets, the size and volatility of international bond flows decline. This is the natural outcome of greater risk sharing facilitated by increased integration. This pattern is consistent with declining volatility observed during 1975–2007 period in the G-7 countries. We also find that the equilibrium flows in bonds and stocks predicted by the model are larger than their empirical counterparts, and are largely driven by variations in equity risk premia. The model also predicts that volatility of equity and bond returns decline with integration, again consistent with the data for G-7 economies.     

Wage Effects of Trade Reform with Endogenous Worker Mobility

In this paper, we use a linked employer–employee database from Brazil to evaluate the wage effects of trade reform. With an aggregate (firm-level) analysis of this question, we find that a decline in trade protection is associated with an increase in average wages in exporting firms relative to domestic firms, consistent with earlier studies. However, using disaggregated, employer–employee level data, and allowing for the endogenous assignment of workers to firms due to match-specific productivity, we find that the premium paid to workers at exporting firms is economically and statistically insignificant, as is the differential impact of trade openness on the wages of workers at exporting firms relative to otherwise identical workers at domestic firms. We also find that workforce composition improves systematically in exporting firms, in terms of the combination of worker ability and the quality of worker–firm matches, post-liberalization. These results stand in stark contrast to the findings reported in many earlier studies and underscore the importance of endogenous matching and, more generally, non-random labor market allocation mechanisms, in determining the effects of trade policy changes on wages.     

Effects of Repatriations Risk on the Choice of Entry Modes Used by U.S. Manufacturing Firms in LDCs

The relationship between repatriations risk and modes of entry continues to interest researchers and practitioners alike. Frequently the structure of functions necessary to develop an efficient and effective international organization are determined by the mode of entry used. Repatriations risk in less developed countries (LDCs) is still a reality especially in light of their increasing debt burden. The objective of this study was to determine whether U.S. manufacturing firms used exporting instead of licensing as a hedge against repatriations risk in developing country markets. Using time-series (1973-86) and cross-sectional data (20 nations), the findings suggest that exporting was used to hedge against repatriations risk in LDCs.     

Trade, offshoring, and the invisible handshake

We study the effect of globalization on the volatility of wages and worker welfare in a model in which risk is allocated through long-run employment relationships (the ‘invisible handshake’). Globalization can take two forms: international integration of commodity markets (i.e., free trade) and international integration of factor markets (i.e., offshoring). In a two-country, two-good, two-factor model we show that free trade and offshoring have opposite effects on rich-country workers. Free trade hurts rich-country workers, while reducing the volatility of their wages; by contrast, offshoring benefits them, while raising the volatility of their wages. We thus formalize, but also sharply circumscribe, a common critique of globalization.     

Early international entrepreneurship in China: Extent and determinants

We use data on 3,948 Chinese firms obtained from the World Bank’s Investment Climate Private Enterprise Survey to investigate early international entrepreneurship (international new ventures) in China. The extent of early international entrepreneurship in China is significant: 62% of the exporting firms start export operations within 3 years. Foreign shareholders within the firm and an entrepreneur with previous exporting experience are noted to significantly increase the probability that a firm internationalizes early. We find marked differences in the behaviour of indigenous and foreign-invested firms, and between direct and indirect exporters. For example, for an indigenous firm the more foreign experience its entrepreneur has, the less likely it is to start exporting early. As far as indirect exporting is concerned, business networks are significant determinants of the extent of such exporting, but delays the internationalization process of indigenous firms. The more firms in China export, the more time their managers need to spend on government regulations, although perhaps counter-intuitively, this was not found to discourage exporting. Overall, the findings suggest that exporting by indigenous Chinese firms is often due to challenging or adverse domestic conditions.     

Export prices,selection into exporting and market size: Evidence from China and India

This paper empirically analyses the export pricing behaviour of Chinese and Indian exporters when there is selection into exporting. Previous exchange rate pass-through estimates that did not take selection into account could be biased if selection into exporting is correlated with pricing strategy. We use 6-digit product-level data across high- and low-income export destinations over the period 1994–2007 and assess a number of determinants of the degree of pass-through of exchange rates to export prices, such as the level of external demand, exporter’s wage cost, degree of competition in export markets, currency volatility and the direction of currency movements. We find systematic differences in the pricing strategies of Chinese and Indian exporters while uncovering a selection bias in exports to high-income markets, although the pricing of exports to low-income markets is independent of the decision to export. Export prices do not increase systematically with the destination market per capita income, and tend to be less sensitive in shipments to advanced nations. Export prices of India are sensitive to the volatility of the trade-weighted nominal effective exchange rate (NEER), indicating heterogeneity in prices to maintain competitiveness, but not in China as volatility is insignificant given a fixed currency system. It is also revealed that a country with a relatively flexible currency regime and arms-length trade such as India is more likely to exhibit incomplete pass-through, whereas a country with an inflexible currency system and involved in outward processing trade is more likely to have full pass-through as shown in the case of China.     

Do firms learn by exporting or learn to export? Evidence from small and medium-sized enterprises

Using a matching approach, we compare the productivity trajectories of future export-entrants and matched nonentrants. Future exporters have higher productivity than do nonentrants before entry into international markets, which indicates self-selection into exports. More interestingly, we also observe a productivity increase among export-entrants relative to nonentrants before export entry. This might be explained by higher investments in physical capital prior to export entry. We find no evidence that the productivity gap between export-entrants and nonentrants continues to grow after export entry. Our results suggest that learning to export occurs but that learning by exporting does not. In contrast to previous studies on Swedish manufacturing, we focus particularly on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).     

A Firm-level Examination of the Exports Puzzle: Why East Asian Exports Didn't Increase After the 1997–1998 Financial Crisis

We analyse a detailed panel dataset on Indonesian manufacturing firms to characterise the exports puzzle: the surprising absence of export-led growth after the massive currency devaluation during the 1997–1998 Asian financial crisis. Our results show that, consistent with trade theory predictions following better terms of trade, entry into export markets increased dramatically. In conflict with the same predictions, however, many pre-crisis exporters quit exporting. Thus stagnant export growth cannot be attributable to a lack of entrepreneurial ambition or activity amongst would-be exporters. Rather, it apparently resulted from constraints prohibiting continued exporting by pre-crisis exporters. Managerial reports of perceived constraints reveal little about why so many firms ceased exporting. However, ‘better’ firms, as proxied by foreign ownership, involvement in research and development, or investment in training, were more likely to continue exporting post-crisis.     

International linkages and productivity at the plant level: Foreign direct investment, exports, imports and licensing

Productivity growth may be affected particularly for developing countries by international linkages or technology transfer. We evaluate relationships between productivity and FDI, exports, imports and licensing for Turkish manufacturing plants in the apparel, textiles, and motor vehicles industries. We assess performance premia associated with these international technology transfer channels that control for plant size and location. We then use a structural model to allow for plant-specific input composition and interactions, estimated alternatively by quantile regression and semi-parametric techniques to recognize plant heterogeneity and to accommodate simultaneity and selection issues. Overall, we find that productivity is most closely related to foreign ownership, especially for larger plants and in combination with other forms of technology transfer, followed by exporting and then licensing.     

SME Networks and International Performance: Unveiling the Significance of Foreign Market Entry Mode

This study investigates the relevance of interorganizational networks for the international performance of small and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs) in relation to the foreign market entry mode (FMEM) selected. We distinguish two groups of internationalized SMEs: exporting firms and micromultinational enterprises (mMNEs). Drawing on insights from the network theory, our study accounts for the role of intermediate outcomes (innovative behavior and foreign market knowledge). Structural equation modeling is conducted in a sample of U.K.‐based internationalized SMEs. Our findings suggest that interorganizational networks have an indirect influence on international performance but differences are found among the two groups of internationalized SMEs.     

Foreign Entry Mode and Performance: The Moderating Effects of Environment*

As the trend toward economic globalization increases, the internationalization of small and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs) has become an important topic. Research on the performance outcomes of foreign market entry strategies has been primarily considered from the perspective of the multinational corporations. In this paper hierarchical regression analyses were conducted on archival data of 123 publicly held manufacturing SMEs based in the United States to test a contingency model that hypothesizes more of the performance variance is explained when the foreign market entry mode is aligned strategically with domestic and foreign environmental factors. The results indicate that firms will have a higher rate of international revenue growth using no‐equity‐based (exporting) foreign market entry modes in growing domestic environments. International revenue growth is higher for equity‐based modes when foreign market risks are high. The findings should provide managers of SMEs with contextual evidence for making successful foreign market entry decisions.