A multi-attribute diffusion model for forecasting the adoption of investment alternatives for consumers

This article develops a diffusion model that incorporates potential adopters' perceptions of the relevant innovation attributes in explaining the rate of adoption of an innovation. Data from 14 investment alternatives currently available to consumers are used to develop a multi-attribute diffusion model for forecasting the acceptance of a potential investment alternative. Limitations and further extensions of the proposed model are also discussed.     

A product diffusion model incorporating repeat purchases

A logistic-based model for forecasting the rate of product diffusion given aggregate time series data was constructed. The model differs from earlier models based on fitting the logistic to aggregate data in that it includes a submodel to separate replacement demand from first-time sales. We fit the theoretical model to data and show that forecasts will be significantly more accurate using this model instead of the logistic curve.     

Forecasting the impact of new technologies on the future job market

This paper examines recent occupational projections in order to determine how new technologies will affect future job growth in the United States. The first part of the paper reviews the methodologies used to derive occupational projections, focusing on how adjustments for technological change are incorporated into the forecasts. The second part of the paper reviews the most recent projections produced by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and compares them with projections produced by other organizations. The results reveal that neither high-technology industries nor high-technology occupations will supply many new jobs over the next decade. Instead, future job growth will favor service and clerical jobs that require little or no postsecondary schooling and that pay below-average wages.     

The new logic of Japan's young generations

Through daily use of computer games and advanced cartoonized learning, the lower teen generation in Japan has developed an unprecedented ability for instantaneous contextual gestalt-based decision making and high-speed multidimensional simultaneous thinking. This is a radical departure from the sequential logic of older generations. This is a conclusion we can reach after examining the voluminous data available from a new research institute in Japan. The data also indicate that the young adult generation has developed unique strategies of life, which are fascinating but difficult to understand in the framework of our traditional logic but make sense as a transition to the logic of the lower teen generation.     

Mindshift: The mental revolution we are in

It is by now a commonplace to say that today the world is in the midst of a revolution as profound as any we have ever experienced. It is, however, much less of a commonplace to specify precisely of what this revolution consists. The contention of this article is that the revolution is more than a mere shift in our industrial or technological base. Fundamentally, it is a change in underlying mental attitudes—how we conceive of the world. It is thus a shift in our values but at the same time much more basic than this alone.This article describes the nature of the change that is occuring in mental attitudes. However, it does not do so in a traditional way. Primarily, it does it by means of a fable. The reason is that the shift we are experiencing is also in part a shift in our aesthetic vision, that is, in the styles of discourse that we use to describe reality. In short, different conceptions of the world require different stylistic forms. The full nuances of a new era can not be captured by the forms of the past.     

Political risk analysis for Canada and Mexico

A new methodology for political risk analysis was developed and applied to Canada and Mexico. The ideas of an interdisciplinary team of corporate and country experts were obtained in mid-1982 via a two-round Delphi inquiry on socioeconomic change and a survey on business contingencies in Canada and Mexico. The information provided by the panelists was used to describe possible future conditions in Canada and Mexico in the context of alternative U.S. and international conditions.     

EFTE: An interactive Delphi method

A new expert opinion technique is developed and applied to estimate the impact of information technologies on clerical work. EFTE stands for estimate, feedback, talk, estimate—the sequence of steps involved in this variant on the Delphi approach. EFTE offers advantages in obtaining expert opinions on complex tasks where social interaction poses little problem.     

Report on a new technological community: The making of a technopolis in an international context

In 1980 the Japanese government conceptualized technopolises. Nine technopolises are already in operation in 1984, and several more will follow. A technopolis is a healthy living environment with cultural amenities combined with high technology industries, away from the existing overcrowded industrial centers and adapted to local characteristics. This article focuses on the most advanced technopolis on the “Silicon Island” Kyushu, describes its process of development, and its future advantages and disadvantages compared to other technopolises.     

Cooperative research,government involvement,and timing of innovations

Government involvement in the innovation process, both direct and indirect, is introduced into a standard innovation time-cost trade-off model. Different forms of involvement are treated and each form entails cooperation between the firm and the government. The optimal development time (or project completion date) is determined and analyzed parametrically. This analysis produced five hypotheses concerning the effect of government involvement on the timing of innovations. Selected empirical applications (or tests) of the hypotheses are presented and then concluding remarks are made.     

Forecasting the impact of office automation on clerical employment, 1985–2000

This article offers a forecast of the effects that advances in office automation technology will have on clerical employment in the banking and insurance industries for the period 1985–2000. A new forecasting approach, intended to account more directly for technological change, was developed for the study and is described. Clerical employment in both industries is estimated to peak about 1990 and decline rapidly during the following decade. Under the most conservative assumptions, absolute reductions in clerical employment of 22% in insurance and 10% in banking are expected by 2000. As a preliminary validation of the method, these results are compared to employment forecasts generated independently by executives in the two industries and to the results of other recent employment forecasts.     

Cooperative research and the firm

This paper models cooperative R & D involving the university, the government, and the firm, using a linear programming format to determine the optimal cooperative structure or, “Who does what?” Both prime and dual are discussed. Sensitivity and simulation techniques are discussed as analytical tools to evaluate the effect of uncertainty and returns to scale on the optimal mix or structure of cooperative R & D. The value of the approach is both heuristic and analytical. Some problems and limitations of the approach are discussed briefly.     

Static and dynamic forecasting of short-run demand for money

Previous studies of static and dynamic out-of-sample simulations of the demand for money have indicated a breakdown in the short-run real money balances over the past 1974 forecast period. Using the varying parameter regression technique, the findings of this paper demonstrate that previous results are misleading because the shift of the money demand is obscured by the constant coefficient estimation technique. Our estimation procedure has not only drastically improved both static and dynamic forecasts but has also solved the missing money puzzle.     

The future of economics: A Delphi Study

In an attempt to forecast the shape of economics in the year 2001, a Delphi study was undertaken, involving over 200 professional economists from 18 different countries. The end result was a list of 28 breakthroughs thought likely to occur in the next 20 years. The paper describes each breakthrough in detail, the process by which consensus and dissent were communicated, and the method used to select the panel of experts surveyed. Although the overall outcome of the study can be interpreted from several perspectives, one inescapable impression that emerges is that the liberal tradition in economics is latent but not dead, or equivalently, that the present conservative drift in the discipline is likely to be shortlived.     

Coal gasification: An economic evaluation

Political interest in developing the capability to produce gaseous fuel from coal in the United States has been cyclical in nature, depending primarily upon the security of the international market for oil and public attitudes toward nuclear power. Interest in coal gasification technology by private investors, however, depends primarily on the economic and technological considerations analyzed in this paper. A cost forecasting model is developed with the capability to take into account future economic and technological uncertainties associated with producing high BTU gas (a substitute for natural gas) from coal. The cost forecasting model incorporates probabilistic information on key economic and technological parameters subject to future uncertainty and simulates, by Monte Carlo methods, the costs which private investors would incur over the life of a commercial size coal gasification plant. The results suggest it is highly unlikely that the coal gasification process could produce high BTU gas more cheaply than the price at which natural gas is likely to be available.The cost forecasting model is also modified to compare the cost per kilowatt–hour of generated electricity when fueling a 1,000 Mw power plant with oil versus high BTU gas from coal. Again, based upon the costs to private investors, the simulation results indicate a very low probability that high BTU gas from coal would prove the least costly fuel for generating electricity.The implied economic infeasibility for private investment in coal gasification does not necessarily provide a basis for public policy to abandon the technology. Public policy recommendations must consider social costs as well as private costs. Possibly the greatest social cost associated with abandoning coal gasification is the risk of a significant energy supply interruption. A diversified national energy policy including coal gasification may in fact be less costly if relevant social costs are included in the calculations. Results from the cost forecasting model indicate the size and type of public subsidies that may be necessary to support a diversified energy industry which would include coal gasification.